Ellen Wald

Ellen Wald

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Energy economist/author; Middle East oil, geopolitics, OPEC

Iran's Transit Control Makes It Gulf Power Axis
SocialMay 27, 2026

Iran's Transit Control Makes It Gulf Power Axis

If I was Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq & UAE I would NOT be pleased. Even if Iran/Oman allow their oil & LNG through, it puts their exports at the mercy of Iran. Always. This wld make Iran the axis...

By Ellen Wald
Saudi MAP Shipment Departs; Eight Phosphate Ships Await
SocialMay 11, 2026

Saudi MAP Shipment Departs; Eight Phosphate Ships Await

Incase you are wondering how the global fertilizer crisis is shaping up - the 2nd Saudi cargo of MAP just left the Persian Gulf for Brazil since the end of Feb. There are 8 ships loaded w/phosphates waiting. https://t.co/MjbR9M1Cx7

By Ellen Wald
US O&G Rejects Unrealistic Energy Outlooks
SocialMay 11, 2026

US O&G Rejects Unrealistic Energy Outlooks

Everyone in energy knows this won't be the case, exactly, but still that's not the kind of messaging US O&G companies want to hear

By Ellen Wald
Chinese Refiners Ask to Curb Output Amid Rising Oil Costs
SocialMay 11, 2026

Chinese Refiners Ask to Curb Output Amid Rising Oil Costs

Lots of confusion out there about what is going on with China’s oil supply. Not sure if this adds any clarity though

By Ellen Wald
Iran's Internet Blackout Cripples Economy, Residents Report
SocialMay 8, 2026

Iran's Internet Blackout Cripples Economy, Residents Report

This is absolutely what is missing from most analyses of the Iran situation. Here’s some information from what people inside Iran are actually experiencing notable is the incredible economic toll just the Internet blackout is taking on Iran’s economy. TLDR:...

By Ellen Wald
Iran's Regime Endures Hardship; Bombings Fail to Curb Missiles
SocialMay 7, 2026

Iran's Regime Endures Hardship; Bombings Fail to Curb Missiles

I think we all knew that the Iranian regime is capable of withstanding extreme economic hardship given that the leadership cares nothing for the population. The fact that the bombing campaigns did little to neuter Iran's ability to launch missiles regionally...

By Ellen Wald
Iran's Oil Restrictions Threaten Prices, Risk War
SocialMay 7, 2026

Iran's Oil Restrictions Threaten Prices, Risk War

This is an excellent point. Iran is disincentivized to allow all traffic because it can push up oil prices. This cannot be allowed. Actual wars have been fought over issues like this.

By Ellen Wald
Saudi Seeks Op Freedom Pause to Safeguard Oil
SocialMay 7, 2026

Saudi Seeks Op Freedom Pause to Safeguard Oil

This makes so much more sense then what was reported last night as to why Saudi Arabia wanted Op Freedom suspended. Oil is everything for Saudi Arabia & after Fujairah was hit + Trump's "oh, that wasn't a ceasefire violation"...

By Ellen Wald
Discussing Oil, Iran, and Hormuz Tensions on Bloomberg Radio
SocialMay 7, 2026

Discussing Oil, Iran, and Hormuz Tensions on Bloomberg Radio

Well, what is going on with #oil? #Iran? #StraitofHormuz? I'll be on @BloombergRadio to discuss in a few minutes. #oott @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/2nAmjfl1Yf

By Ellen Wald
Power Hinges on Meeting Demands; Toll‑free Hormuz Navigation Essential
SocialMay 6, 2026

Power Hinges on Meeting Demands; Toll‑free Hormuz Navigation Essential

Basically “you can survive and stay in power if you do what we want.” Though “opening Hormuz” needs to spelled out clearly - no tolls, no harassment of ships and no insisting on routs other than the TSS. That’s the only...

By Ellen Wald
Oil Stagnates; Iranian Officials May Finally Respond
SocialMay 6, 2026

Oil Stagnates; Iranian Officials May Finally Respond

We are basically in the same position we were on Monday, when oil prices were significantly higher. The only difference is that people who don’t make the decisions in Iran are maybe going to respond to a memo…

By Ellen Wald
US‑Iran Language Clash Masks Real Strait of Hormuz Status
SocialMay 6, 2026

US‑Iran Language Clash Masks Real Strait of Hormuz Status

Setting aside the nuclear situation, there's an issue with the 1st point right off the bat - language. The US says "Iran lift its chokehold over the SoH" and Iran says "SoH is open...follow these protocols (incl. payment)." Both sides agree on...

By Ellen Wald
Iran Threatens Ships Crossing Strait without Permission
SocialMay 6, 2026

Iran Threatens Ships Crossing Strait without Permission

Iran Warns Ships Against Crossing Strait Without Its Permission ... because this is the reality. https://t.co/DpHdRSWPHM

By Ellen Wald
War Fuels Profit Swings, Leaves Iran Richer
SocialMay 6, 2026

War Fuels Profit Swings, Leaves Iran Richer

So then the outcome of the war is that some people make money off of price swings and Iran ends up better off than before.

By Ellen Wald