Ellen Wald

Ellen Wald

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Energy economist/author; Middle East oil, geopolitics, OPEC

US Deploys Over 15 Warships for Iran Blockade
SocialApr 13, 2026

US Deploys Over 15 Warships for Iran Blockade

U.S. Blockade of Iran Officially Under Way "there are more than 15 U.S. warships in place to support the operation" #oott #IranWar‌ https://t.co/fJUf40YGWg

By Ellen Wald
US Failed to Block Iran Oil After First Attack
SocialApr 13, 2026

US Failed to Block Iran Oil After First Attack

It actually makes perfect sense. What makes no sense is why the US allowed Iran to continue to sell oil in contravention of sanctions throughout this war. This embargo/blockade should have been in place as soon as Iran fired on...

By Ellen Wald
Naval Blockade Beats Bomb Threats in Iran Oil Standoff
SocialApr 12, 2026

Naval Blockade Beats Bomb Threats in Iran Oil Standoff

I’m not saying this is a GOOD thing, but the situation was never going to be resolved while IRAN could still get its oil out and no one else could. A naval blockade is much more effective than threatening to...

By Ellen Wald
Normal Hormuz Traffic Won’t Ease Looming Crisis
SocialApr 10, 2026

Normal Hormuz Traffic Won’t Ease Looming Crisis

weeks away. even if normal traffic resumes through the strait of hormuz today, this won't provide relief.

By Ellen Wald
Trump Must only Negotiate with Missile and Drone Commanders
SocialApr 10, 2026

Trump Must only Negotiate with Missile and Drone Commanders

Trump needs to stop “negotiating” with anyone who isn’t in charge of the missiles and drones. Thats all that matters now.

By Ellen Wald
VLCCs Pay $1/Barrel in Rials or Crypto After IRGC Permit
SocialApr 10, 2026

VLCCs Pay $1/Barrel in Rials or Crypto After IRGC Permit

Wow, so apparently every VLCC going through the Strait of Hormuz has been paying "$1 per barrel, and that can be done in the local currency, rials, or cryptocurrency, but only after the vessel has received a permit from the...

By Ellen Wald
Iran's Tollbooth Threatens War Resolution, Gulf Balks
SocialApr 10, 2026

Iran's Tollbooth Threatens War Resolution, Gulf Balks

“I don’t think this war can end if Iran is still running the ‘tollbooth’,” said Ellen R. Wald, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Centre... She said that “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and other...

By Ellen Wald
Iran Claims Open Strait, Demands Payment; Trump Disagrees
SocialApr 7, 2026

Iran Claims Open Strait, Demands Payment; Trump Disagrees

And this is why it’s hard to believe that Iran has agreed to not regulate passage at this point because it’s Irans primary leverage. In Irans eyes the strait IS open—you just have to pay them & the insurance companies....

By Ellen Wald
$2 Million Toll
SocialApr 7, 2026

$2 Million Toll

and the new point of contention? the $2 million+ tolls on traversing the Strait of Hormuz?

By Ellen Wald
Missiles Target Tel Aviv After Ceasefire, Iran’s Role Unclear
SocialApr 7, 2026

Missiles Target Tel Aviv After Ceasefire, Iran’s Role Unclear

but is Iran part of the ceasefire? Ballistic missiles heading towards Tel Aviv right after the ceasefire was announced

By Ellen Wald
No One Cares if Oil Passes the Strait
SocialApr 7, 2026

No One Cares if Oil Passes the Strait

I guess there's zero interest in whether oil is actually going to move through strait unobstructed ...

By Ellen Wald
Why Some Nations Charge for Sea Passage, Others Don’t
SocialApr 7, 2026

Why Some Nations Charge for Sea Passage, Others Don’t

I mean, why not? Let's charge to enter to Gulf of Mexico or whatever it's called now. Why is Turkey not saying to heck with the Montreux Convention and charging for passage through the Dardanelles? Because Freedom of the Seas.

By Ellen Wald
Questioning US Toll Authority Over Unbuilt Waterway
SocialApr 7, 2026

Questioning US Toll Authority Over Unbuilt Waterway

This is...um...not even really sure where to go with this. Like, didn't we end actual imperialism? On what basis does the US get to charge tolls for passage through a waterway they DIDN'T build? Are we "liberating" it from Iran?

By Ellen Wald
Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply
SocialApr 3, 2026

Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply

What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran ⁦@ACGlobalEnergy⁩ https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp

By Ellen Wald
Ellen Wald: Brent Prices Must Rise Amid Iran War
SocialApr 1, 2026

Ellen Wald: Brent Prices Must Rise Amid Iran War

Watch Price of Brent Should Be Higher to Reflect Situation in Iran War, Says Ellen Wald - Bloomberg ⁦@ACGlobalEnergy⁩ #oott #iran https://t.co/rdYCFWeqvC

By Ellen Wald
Iran's Oil Role Threatened Amid U.S. Military Pullback
SocialApr 1, 2026

Iran's Oil Role Threatened Amid U.S. Military Pullback

It’s a new day & I’m on @Bloomberg Surveillance this morning (6:30am) to discuss #oil #Iran latest devs. Military is building up but Trump wants to wind down operations in 2-3 weeks. Will Iran remain the Persian Gulf toll collector @ACGlobalEnergy...

By Ellen Wald
Iran and Russia Profit as Oil Prices Surge Amid War
SocialMar 31, 2026

Iran and Russia Profit as Oil Prices Surge Amid War

A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...

By Ellen Wald
Hormuz Strait Events Differ From Administration's Claims
SocialMar 30, 2026

Hormuz Strait Events Differ From Administration's Claims

What’s really going on in the straight of Hormuz is NOT what the admin is saying

By Ellen Wald
Trump Naively Praises Iran’s New Leaders, Predicts Oil Surge
SocialMar 30, 2026

Trump Naively Praises Iran’s New Leaders, Predicts Oil Surge

Meanwhile Trump’s messaging is - Irans new leaders are so reasonable & oil will be flowing from everywhere in a few days. 🤦‍♀️

By Ellen Wald
Admin Delays Report to Mask Prolonged Military Operation
SocialMar 30, 2026

Admin Delays Report to Mask Prolonged Military Operation

The administration is trying SO HARD to jawbone pries down so they can have more time for a military op they didn’t expect to take this long. Treasury Secretary is out there saying ships are moving through Hormuz but it’s only...

By Ellen Wald
Global Energy Crisis Already Unfolding, Oil Supply Irrelevant
SocialMar 26, 2026

Global Energy Crisis Already Unfolding, Oil Supply Irrelevant

True-ish but also not relevant. We've already sent the world into a global energy crisis. That's going to catch up to us regardless of how little oil we get from the Persian Gulf

By Ellen Wald
Executives Keep 2026 Drilling Plans Steady
SocialMar 25, 2026

Executives Keep 2026 Drilling Plans Steady

This is important to understand. The "drill, baby, drill" mentality is OVER. "Half of the executives surveyed said the number of wells their firms expect to drill in 2026 has not changed since the start of the year."

By Ellen Wald
Spare Capacity Meaningless without Effective Oil Extraction
SocialMar 25, 2026

Spare Capacity Meaningless without Effective Oil Extraction

""Spare capacity is only as good as the ability to get the oil out of where it's being produced," Wald says. In this case, no good at all." https://t.co/VgSc08fl58

By Ellen Wald
US Should Leverage Abu Musa, Tunbs
SocialMar 24, 2026

US Should Leverage Abu Musa, Tunbs

FTR, I suggested the US look at Abu Musa and the Tunbs as avenues to securing the Straight of Hormuz back on March 5… https://t.co/UU4UsAph4d

By Ellen Wald
War on Iran Paradoxically Boosts Its $500M Revenue
SocialMar 24, 2026

War on Iran Paradoxically Boosts Its $500M Revenue

This is confounding. We are fighting a WAR against Iran but letting them increase their revenue by over $500 million...

By Ellen Wald
Trump's Iran Claim Masks Indirect Talks via Allies
SocialMar 23, 2026

Trump's Iran Claim Masks Indirect Talks via Allies

the devil is in the details. It's important for the Iranian regime's legitimacy & public face not to engage in diplomacy with the US. So Trump may say "we spoke with the Iranians" what actually happened in that Trumps ppl...

By Ellen Wald
Oil Prices Shift on Brief Comments, Says Wald
SocialMar 23, 2026

Oil Prices Shift on Brief Comments, Says Wald

Watch Oil Moving on ‘A Couple Words and a Tweet,’ Atlantic Council’s Wald Says - Bloomberg ⁦@ACGlobalEnergy⁩ #oott https://t.co/YElH8A8ORG

By Ellen Wald
Ground Ops on Hormuz Islands May Outperform Kharg Target
SocialMar 23, 2026

Ground Ops on Hormuz Islands May Outperform Kharg Target

Why the fixation Kharg Island? I assume it's because they think they can cut off Iran's source of income this way. But perhaps should consider ground operations on Islands in strait of Hormuz? Might be more effective for opening the...

By Ellen Wald
OFAC Grants License for Iranian Oil Shipments Until 2026
SocialMar 21, 2026

OFAC Grants License for Iranian Oil Shipments Until 2026

“The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is issuing Iran-related General License U, "Authorizing the Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products of Iranian-Origin Loaded on Vessels as of March 20, 2026." https://t.co/KaDQIxyNn5

By Ellen Wald
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Energy Market Collapse
SocialMar 20, 2026

Iran Conflict Threatens Global Energy Market Collapse

Iran War Puts Global Energy Markets on the Brink of a Worst-Case Scenario | WIRED Quoted here with the always on point ⁦@Rory_Johnston⁩ https://t.co/mDCdbWwTqc

By Ellen Wald
Asian Nations Revert to Coal Amid Gas Shortages
SocialMar 20, 2026

Asian Nations Revert to Coal Amid Gas Shortages

“Locations including Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Pakistan and Bangladeshgenerate a third or more of their electricity from natural gas.” “Many facing supply shortages and price increases are turning back to coal-fired power plants.” https://t.co/YhwmluSw9F #oott #LNG

By Ellen Wald
Saudi Oil Price Models Predict Upcoming Market Shift
SocialMar 20, 2026

Saudi Oil Price Models Predict Upcoming Market Shift

Call the headline “attention grabbing” if you must, but this is an excellent look into what those modeling oil prices in Saudi Arabia see happening Thanks ⁦@summer_said⁩ #oott #oil #iran https://t.co/7AGgTmaVXb

By Ellen Wald
Prolonged Disruptions Will Scar Oil Output, Keep Prices High
SocialMar 19, 2026

Prolonged Disruptions Will Scar Oil Output, Keep Prices High

This is not good news for an already strained global energy market. The longer this goes on the more long-term damage will be done to oil production that will take markets longer to recover from. Oil prices will not “drop...

By Ellen Wald
Brent Crude Spikes Past $118, Then Eases
SocialMar 19, 2026

Brent Crude Spikes Past $118, Then Eases

“The price of Brent crude surpassed $118 a barrel on Thursday, an increase of nearly 10 percent, but has since pared some of those gains.” https://t.co/Z9YDmbtUW3

By Ellen Wald
Aramco Can Still Export Crude via Suez, Threatened by Houthis
SocialMar 18, 2026

Aramco Can Still Export Crude via Suez, Threatened by Houthis

This would be very difficult for Asia. But, Aramco will still be able to get crude out to the Med by going from Yanbu to the Suez Canal and/or SUMED pipeline. Unless Houthis start shooting missiles at Yanbu & Jubail.

By Ellen Wald
WTI Nears $100: CEOs Weigh Impact
SocialMar 18, 2026

WTI Nears $100: CEOs Weigh Impact

WTI is about to cross the $100/barrel threshold. Would love to hear from CEOs of US domestic producers about their calculations right now. $OXY $EOG $DVN $FANG Contenental, etc. #oil #IranWar‌ #oott

By Ellen Wald
Geopolitical Risk Premium Rises for Persian Gulf JV
SocialMar 18, 2026

Geopolitical Risk Premium Rises for Persian Gulf JV

geopolitical risk premium for investing in a joint venture in the Persian Gulf just went up

By Ellen Wald
Oil Production Damage Irreversible, Prices Set to Surge
SocialMar 18, 2026

Oil Production Damage Irreversible, Prices Set to Surge

the destruction of oil and gas production has begun...now there's no turning back for oil prices. Once long-term damage is done, production won't return to previous levels just because hostilities cease & marine traffic resumes

By Ellen Wald
Israel Systematically Tracks Down Iranian Regime Operatives
SocialMar 18, 2026

Israel Systematically Tracks Down Iranian Regime Operatives

This story is insane…Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One https://t.co/HPxV7aO1MW

By Ellen Wald
Venezuela's Oil Gains From Hormuz Shutdown, Spiking Prices
SocialMar 16, 2026

Venezuela's Oil Gains From Hormuz Shutdown, Spiking Prices

Well that’s one way to Make Venezuela’s Oil Great Again…by shutting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices into the $90s and $100s https://t.co/0dXdhaPaQ6

By Ellen Wald
Iran Strikes Oil Field, Potential Production Loss Looms
SocialMar 16, 2026

Iran Strikes Oil Field, Potential Production Loss Looms

Well, Iran finally managed to hit an oil field. Stay tuned for how much damage and how much production may be offline for how long

By Ellen Wald
Admin Must Admit Rising Oil Ship Traffic Through Hormuz
SocialMar 16, 2026

Admin Must Admit Rising Oil Ship Traffic Through Hormuz

There were 4 in the last 24 hours. At some point, the administration needs to just be honest and lay out the facts instead of saying different things every few days, trying to jawbone the oil market, bullying the shipping...

By Ellen Wald
Proposed Military Capture of Tunbs Islands for UAE
SocialMar 13, 2026

Proposed Military Capture of Tunbs Islands for UAE

For the record, I suggested sending troops to capture the Greater and Lesser Tunbs Islands and Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz and then turn them over to the UAE — on March 5! @ACGlobalEnergy #oil #iran

By Ellen Wald
Desert Oil Site: Annoying yet Crucial Against Drone Threats
SocialMar 12, 2026

Desert Oil Site: Annoying yet Crucial Against Drone Threats

Having a major oil installation in the middle of the Empty Quarter (yes, its called that for a reason) is annoying, especially if you want to go out to eat after a long day of work, but its helpful when...

By Ellen Wald
Keep US Oil Exports; Global Integration Essential
SocialMar 12, 2026

Keep US Oil Exports; Global Integration Essential

Cannot agree more. DO NOT end US oil exports. Our integration into the global oil market is essential. Protectionism would be a horrible idea right now.

By Ellen Wald
Unimpeded Tankers: Heading to China or Beyond Seiz
SocialMar 12, 2026

Unimpeded Tankers: Heading to China or Beyond Seiz

Would like to understand why these tankers are sailing unimpeded. Is it that they are going to China? Is it physically impossible to commandeer these ships like with Venezuela?

By Ellen Wald
Truce Hangs on Unlikely Iranian Nuclear Commitment
SocialMar 11, 2026

Truce Hangs on Unlikely Iranian Nuclear Commitment

and if Israel & US truce depends on Iran pledging no more nuclear program does anyone believe this?

By Ellen Wald
Oil Pricing Shifted From Negotiations to OPEC Quota Control
SocialMar 11, 2026

Oil Pricing Shifted From Negotiations to OPEC Quota Control

yes, it did but it was also followed by a complete revolution in how oil prices were set. Before oil companies negotiated a posted price with OPEC. Afterwards OPEC set prices thru production quotas I♥️historical comparisons, but not everything is directly...

By Ellen Wald
Oil Producers Give Vague Forecasts, No Concrete Evidence
SocialMar 11, 2026

Oil Producers Give Vague Forecasts, No Concrete Evidence

This kind of messaging is so twisted No confirmation from oil producers (in fact all we’ve heard is “no we’re not changing our calculus guidance) just “you will see X happening.” Did Harold Hamm call? Is there an influx of roughnecks heading...

By Ellen Wald