Ellen Wald

Ellen Wald

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Energy economist/author; Middle East oil, geopolitics, OPEC

Kid's Early Energy Saves Me From Doom Headlines
SocialMay 6, 2026

Kid's Early Energy Saves Me From Doom Headlines

Thank you to my 4 y/o for waking me up at 5am & insisting that he had “too much energy in me” to possibly sleep anymore & needed to play Hot Wheels & look at the moon. Otherwise I might...

By Ellen Wald
Oil Eyes Recovery Before Market Opens in 30 Minutes
SocialMay 6, 2026

Oil Eyes Recovery Before Market Opens in 30 Minutes

Market opens in less than 30 minutes…can oil claw back the losses from the 5am drop?

By Ellen Wald
Imminent Event Should Spark After‑Hours Oil Volatility
SocialMay 4, 2026

Imminent Event Should Spark After‑Hours Oil Volatility

If this is imminent, you’d expect to see more movement in oil in after hours trading…

By Ellen Wald
Iran's War Funding Erodes as Oil Blockade Delays
SocialMay 4, 2026

Iran's War Funding Erodes as Oil Blockade Delays

Yes, energy prices will continue to rise. But if Iran isn't able to get oil to customers then it's ability to wage war is being drained with every day and every drone launched. The blockade should have been in place in...

By Ellen Wald
Oil Markets Tumble Early with Unexpected TACO Move
SocialMay 4, 2026

Oil Markets Tumble Early with Unexpected TACO Move

gee, I didn't think the TACOing in the oil markets down would happen this early in the trading day

By Ellen Wald
Paper Plans vs Reality: A Massive Military Gap
SocialMay 4, 2026

Paper Plans vs Reality: A Massive Military Gap

We don't just have the difference between the paper market and the physical market we now have a gap miles wide between the paper military situation and the physical military situation.

By Ellen Wald
Sole Middle East Supplier Moves 4‑5 Million Bpd
SocialMay 3, 2026

Sole Middle East Supplier Moves 4‑5 Million Bpd

Well when you’re the only supplier in the Middle East getting 4-5 million bpd out…

By Ellen Wald
Venezuelan Oil Becomes Viable only Above $110/Barrel
SocialMay 1, 2026

Venezuelan Oil Becomes Viable only Above $110/Barrel

what changed? Oil prices & global inventories At $60/barrel Venezuelan oil is too risky/unprofitable. At $110/barrel Venezuelan oil looks investable

By Ellen Wald
UAE Increasingly Breaks From OPEC's Leadership, Says Expert
SocialMay 1, 2026

UAE Increasingly Breaks From OPEC's Leadership, Says Expert

"“It's pretty clear that the UAE has been diverging from OPEC’s leadership for a while now,” Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting and an expert on energy and geopolitics, told The Dispatch." https://t.co/T78DIjRG0W Quoted here along w @Dr_Ulrichsen @gbrew24

By Ellen Wald
Unexpected Oil Stock Drawdown Surprised Us Last Month
SocialApr 30, 2026

Unexpected Oil Stock Drawdown Surprised Us Last Month

we couldn't have done this...last month? before drawing down all of the commercial oil stocks?

By Ellen Wald
UAE's OPEC Exit Signals Major Shift in Oil Market
SocialApr 29, 2026

UAE's OPEC Exit Signals Major Shift in Oil Market

I usually share my initial thoughts on various energy market developments here first, but I'm trying to branch out and yesterday I wrote this on the UAE's exit from OPEC on LinkedIn: https://t.co/imFAPkipF4 #OOTT #oil #UAE #OPEC

By Ellen Wald
Iran's Storage Capacity Far Exceeds Admin's Short‑term Estimates
SocialApr 29, 2026

Iran's Storage Capacity Far Exceeds Admin's Short‑term Estimates

This is the key calculation here - how much room in floating storage and in onshore facilities. Admin’s calc that Iran will have no room in a few days is clearly just wrong

By Ellen Wald
Mazroui’s Exit Marks Major Loss for OPEC+
SocialApr 28, 2026

Mazroui’s Exit Marks Major Loss for OPEC+

OPEC’s loss, as Mazroui’s leadership has been extremely beneficial in many ways, including the delicate process of putting together the Declaration of Cooperation (OPEC+)

By Ellen Wald
Only Eight Hormuz Crossings, Far Below Normal Levels
SocialApr 24, 2026

Only Eight Hormuz Crossings, Far Below Normal Levels

“As of 23 April, eight total crossings were recorded through the Strait of Hormuz, flat d/d but still far below normal traffic levels, with most crossings seen west-to-east” https://t.co/C8Cl7uvlPD

By Ellen Wald
Oil Market Hopeful Hype Masks Underlying Pessimism
SocialApr 24, 2026

Oil Market Hopeful Hype Masks Underlying Pessimism

not sure where all the hope is coming from in the oil market today. This is not a hopeful sign.

By Ellen Wald
Oil Output Doubled Since 2008; China Dominates Reserves
SocialApr 23, 2026

Oil Output Doubled Since 2008; China Dominates Reserves

Very interesting. This does not mean Brent should be priced in the $200s today. In 2008 US oil production was around 5 million bpd. Today is around 13 million bpd. China’s oil stocks are higher than everyone else’s put together. But...

By Ellen Wald
Iran's Missile Fleet Underutilized Despite Active Air Force
SocialApr 22, 2026

Iran's Missile Fleet Underutilized Despite Active Air Force

This article is potentially pretty damning. But I'd like to know whether the 50% of the ballistic missiles + launchers can be utilized, why if Iran still has an Air Force was it not being used & are all these...

By Ellen Wald
Could a Government-Owned Spirit Airline Stifle Competition?
SocialApr 22, 2026

Could a Government-Owned Spirit Airline Stifle Competition?

So will Spirit be the new gov airline? Will federal workers have to fly Spirit on gov business? In an industry as heavily regulated as air travel having an airline owned by the fed gov could be seen as …...

By Ellen Wald
Shadow Fleet Still Moves Despite US Trade Halt Claim
SocialApr 20, 2026

Shadow Fleet Still Moves Despite US Trade Halt Claim

“While the US military says it has turned around over 20 vessels and ‘completely halted’ Iranian trade, Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows a steady flow of shadow fleet traffic in and out of the Middle East Gulf” Personally, I trust @TankerTrackers https://t.co/Uu0qgzUlPk

By Ellen Wald
Joining Bloomberg TV to Discuss Iran Oil Developments
SocialApr 20, 2026

Joining Bloomberg TV to Discuss Iran Oil Developments

I’ll be on @BloombergTV Surveillance in a few to discuss #Iran #oil and the latest with @annmarie @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV #oott https://t.co/2dEIjcL92p

By Ellen Wald
Trump’s Market‑soothing Rhetoric Threatens Iran Leverage
SocialApr 20, 2026

Trump’s Market‑soothing Rhetoric Threatens Iran Leverage

Trump should stop saying things just to calm markets that either don’t reflect real life or he has zero intention of following through on. If he gives up the blockade he loses his leverage against Iran.

By Ellen Wald
SCOTUS Moves Chevron Case to Federal Court
SocialApr 17, 2026

SCOTUS Moves Chevron Case to Federal Court

SCOTUS just ruled on this case today...unanimous ruling that Chevron's case can be heard in Federal Court rather than State Court #oott $CVX #climatelawsuits

By Ellen Wald
Iran's “Open” Hormuz Route Fails to Reassure Shippers
SocialApr 17, 2026

Iran's “Open” Hormuz Route Fails to Reassure Shippers

"The Iranian foreign minister’s announcement on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for ships that use an Iranian-prescribed route doesn’t give the shipping industry assurances to resume traffic through the strait" https://t.co/9MdBedoMmR

By Ellen Wald
Prolonged Conflict Will Drive Economy-Wide Price Hikes
SocialApr 17, 2026

Prolonged Conflict Will Drive Economy-Wide Price Hikes

“While Americans are currently seeing higher gas prices and haven't felt it in other areas, Wald says that the longer the conflict continues, the more prices across the economy will increase.” https://t.co/oTyVnpjsgT

By Ellen Wald
Red Sea Ports Can't Match 7 M Bpd Pipeline Capacity
SocialApr 16, 2026

Red Sea Ports Can't Match 7 M Bpd Pipeline Capacity

just because East-West pipelines can carry ~7 million bpd doesn't mean Red Sea ports can handle that volume of exports

By Ellen Wald
Trump’s Iran War Timeline Sparks Blockade, Peace Talks, GOP-Pope Feud
SocialApr 16, 2026

Trump’s Iran War Timeline Sparks Blockade, Peace Talks, GOP-Pope Feud

Catch my comments on @NPR @MorningEdition Trump's Iran War Timeline, Iran Blockade And Peace Talks, GOP And Trump Pope Feud https://t.co/ehOwdmamYm via @nprone

By Ellen Wald
Saudi Crude Routed Through Red Sea, Oman, Kazakhstan Supply
SocialApr 15, 2026

Saudi Crude Routed Through Red Sea, Oman, Kazakhstan Supply

Saudi crude secured via Red Sea, other sources are Oman and Kazakstan. #oott #oil https://t.co/XbR2pdl7Lw

By Ellen Wald
US Blockade Halts Iran's Oil Shipments to China, India
SocialApr 15, 2026

US Blockade Halts Iran's Oil Shipments to China, India

"The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has all but stopped Iran-controlled or dark-fleet tankers moving Iranian oil to importers mainly China and India." https://t.co/UXsjqOp2by

By Ellen Wald
U.S. Energy Self‑Sufficiency Shields Against Oil Shortages
SocialApr 14, 2026

U.S. Energy Self‑Sufficiency Shields Against Oil Shortages

Ellen Wald, a global energy analyst @ACGlobalEnergy... said: “The US is in a particularly advantageous position to do something like this. The United States is very well supplied. We pump a lot of our own oil. We’re not going to...

By Ellen Wald
US Deploys Over 15 Warships for Iran Blockade
SocialApr 13, 2026

US Deploys Over 15 Warships for Iran Blockade

U.S. Blockade of Iran Officially Under Way "there are more than 15 U.S. warships in place to support the operation" #oott #IranWar‌ https://t.co/fJUf40YGWg

By Ellen Wald
US Failed to Block Iran Oil After First Attack
SocialApr 13, 2026

US Failed to Block Iran Oil After First Attack

It actually makes perfect sense. What makes no sense is why the US allowed Iran to continue to sell oil in contravention of sanctions throughout this war. This embargo/blockade should have been in place as soon as Iran fired on...

By Ellen Wald
Naval Blockade Beats Bomb Threats in Iran Oil Standoff
SocialApr 12, 2026

Naval Blockade Beats Bomb Threats in Iran Oil Standoff

I’m not saying this is a GOOD thing, but the situation was never going to be resolved while IRAN could still get its oil out and no one else could. A naval blockade is much more effective than threatening to...

By Ellen Wald
Normal Hormuz Traffic Won’t Ease Looming Crisis
SocialApr 10, 2026

Normal Hormuz Traffic Won’t Ease Looming Crisis

weeks away. even if normal traffic resumes through the strait of hormuz today, this won't provide relief.

By Ellen Wald
Trump Must only Negotiate with Missile and Drone Commanders
SocialApr 10, 2026

Trump Must only Negotiate with Missile and Drone Commanders

Trump needs to stop “negotiating” with anyone who isn’t in charge of the missiles and drones. Thats all that matters now.

By Ellen Wald
VLCCs Pay $1/Barrel in Rials or Crypto After IRGC Permit
SocialApr 10, 2026

VLCCs Pay $1/Barrel in Rials or Crypto After IRGC Permit

Wow, so apparently every VLCC going through the Strait of Hormuz has been paying "$1 per barrel, and that can be done in the local currency, rials, or cryptocurrency, but only after the vessel has received a permit from the...

By Ellen Wald
Iran's Tollbooth Threatens War Resolution, Gulf Balks
SocialApr 10, 2026

Iran's Tollbooth Threatens War Resolution, Gulf Balks

“I don’t think this war can end if Iran is still running the ‘tollbooth’,” said Ellen R. Wald, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Centre... She said that “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and other...

By Ellen Wald
Iran Claims Open Strait, Demands Payment; Trump Disagrees
SocialApr 7, 2026

Iran Claims Open Strait, Demands Payment; Trump Disagrees

And this is why it’s hard to believe that Iran has agreed to not regulate passage at this point because it’s Irans primary leverage. In Irans eyes the strait IS open—you just have to pay them & the insurance companies....

By Ellen Wald
$2 Million Toll
SocialApr 7, 2026

$2 Million Toll

and the new point of contention? the $2 million+ tolls on traversing the Strait of Hormuz?

By Ellen Wald
Missiles Target Tel Aviv After Ceasefire, Iran’s Role Unclear
SocialApr 7, 2026

Missiles Target Tel Aviv After Ceasefire, Iran’s Role Unclear

but is Iran part of the ceasefire? Ballistic missiles heading towards Tel Aviv right after the ceasefire was announced

By Ellen Wald
No One Cares if Oil Passes the Strait
SocialApr 7, 2026

No One Cares if Oil Passes the Strait

I guess there's zero interest in whether oil is actually going to move through strait unobstructed ...

By Ellen Wald
Why Some Nations Charge for Sea Passage, Others Don’t
SocialApr 7, 2026

Why Some Nations Charge for Sea Passage, Others Don’t

I mean, why not? Let's charge to enter to Gulf of Mexico or whatever it's called now. Why is Turkey not saying to heck with the Montreux Convention and charging for passage through the Dardanelles? Because Freedom of the Seas.

By Ellen Wald
Questioning US Toll Authority Over Unbuilt Waterway
SocialApr 7, 2026

Questioning US Toll Authority Over Unbuilt Waterway

This is...um...not even really sure where to go with this. Like, didn't we end actual imperialism? On what basis does the US get to charge tolls for passage through a waterway they DIDN'T build? Are we "liberating" it from Iran?

By Ellen Wald
Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply
SocialApr 3, 2026

Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply

What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran ⁦@ACGlobalEnergy⁩ https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp

By Ellen Wald
Ellen Wald: Brent Prices Must Rise Amid Iran War
SocialApr 1, 2026

Ellen Wald: Brent Prices Must Rise Amid Iran War

Watch Price of Brent Should Be Higher to Reflect Situation in Iran War, Says Ellen Wald - Bloomberg ⁦@ACGlobalEnergy⁩ #oott #iran https://t.co/rdYCFWeqvC

By Ellen Wald
Iran's Oil Role Threatened Amid U.S. Military Pullback
SocialApr 1, 2026

Iran's Oil Role Threatened Amid U.S. Military Pullback

It’s a new day & I’m on @Bloomberg Surveillance this morning (6:30am) to discuss #oil #Iran latest devs. Military is building up but Trump wants to wind down operations in 2-3 weeks. Will Iran remain the Persian Gulf toll collector @ACGlobalEnergy...

By Ellen Wald
Iran and Russia Profit as Oil Prices Surge Amid War
SocialMar 31, 2026

Iran and Russia Profit as Oil Prices Surge Amid War

A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...

By Ellen Wald
Hormuz Strait Events Differ From Administration's Claims
SocialMar 30, 2026

Hormuz Strait Events Differ From Administration's Claims

What’s really going on in the straight of Hormuz is NOT what the admin is saying

By Ellen Wald
Trump Naively Praises Iran’s New Leaders, Predicts Oil Surge
SocialMar 30, 2026

Trump Naively Praises Iran’s New Leaders, Predicts Oil Surge

Meanwhile Trump’s messaging is - Irans new leaders are so reasonable & oil will be flowing from everywhere in a few days. 🤦‍♀️

By Ellen Wald
Admin Delays Report to Mask Prolonged Military Operation
SocialMar 30, 2026

Admin Delays Report to Mask Prolonged Military Operation

The administration is trying SO HARD to jawbone pries down so they can have more time for a military op they didn’t expect to take this long. Treasury Secretary is out there saying ships are moving through Hormuz but it’s only...

By Ellen Wald