AI Adoption Rates Matter as Much as Exposure Metrics
Occupational exposure metrics are useful & important, but they sometimes disagree & they may not measure vulnerability to displacement well. I increasingly think AI *adoption* rates are just as important for monitoring labor market effects as *exposure* rates.
Post-2000 Labor Share Decline Persists Across Sectors
Nearly true of the Nonfinancial Corporate Business sector too, where labor/capital distinction is cleaner. Sectoral & depreciation adjustments usually raise the labor share level, & they often show flat/rising shares over 1973-2000. But post-2000 decline is pretty consistent.
US Weekly Jobless Claims Stay Near Historic Lows
Both initial and continuing weekly jobless claims in the US remain very low, echoing the low layoff rate in JOLTS data. https://t.co/LGFAHjvdBU
Tech Job Loss Fears Unfounded; Employment Near Record Highs
The most basic rebuttal against this worry is that, if technology displaced jobs **in the long-run**, employment rates would be at record lows rather than the near-record *highs* they actually are. 1/2 https://t.co/7iIr6gu3Oi
Wealth Boosts Health Spending, Not Necessarily Health Outcomes
Two important takeaways: 1. Health care is a superior good. As a country becomes richer, it will choose to spend more on health. 2. This tells you nothing about outcomes/efficiency. A country may spend a lot & still not get as high...
Travel Agents Show Tech Displacement Isn’t All Doom
New from @Stripe Economics today: One of the biggest labor market uncertainties is whether AI will displace human work at scale. Evidence so far is still early & mixed. The story of travel agents—a clear case of tech displacement—is instructive. And...
Youth Jobs Hit in AI Fields, Not Solely AI
Fascinating paper. To me, it simultaneously strengthens the thesis that something is affecting youth employment in AI-exposed industries, while slightly *weakening* the argument that it's AI, at least conventional AI displacement effects in the way we've been talking about them.
Bottom Wage Growth Outpaces Top in 2026 Q1
New data on 2026 Q1 usual weekly earnings in the US have implications for the K-shaped debate. 1. Measured against pre-pandemic (1st chart), the bottom has done meaningfully better on nominal wage growth than the top. 2. Over last few...
Grocery Margins at 25‑year Lows, Limiting Price Control
The theory here is that the best place to try to control household grocery costs is in lower retail markups. But grocery store margins in 2025 averaged just 2.7%, have been falling since 2022, & are close to 25-year lows....
Europe’s Wealth Misunderstood: Methodology Skews US‑EU GDP Debate
We're probably well-past the point of diminishing returns of this debate on social media. There's just a host of methodological issues and choices that change the answer: 1. Europe v. EU v. Eurozone v. Western Europe (and by extension: what's the...
2026 PCE Durables Prices Surge, Double 2025 Pace
2026 is already tracking to be another abnormal year for PCE durables prices, up 1.5% since December, double the pace at this same point in 2025. Over the prior 5 non-pandemic years, durables prices were up 0.3% on average through...
Today's Stubborn Inflation Driven by New Factors, Not 1970s
This chart is fine as a simple comparison of historical inflation experiences, but the current tenaciousness of inflation is due to different factors, and is happening in a different policy context, from the inflation of the late 1970s. 1/2
Freelance Computer Workers Surge Sharply in 2025
Interesting: freelance (self-employed) computer workers have accelerated sharply in 2025. Note this is an index with a 2019 base--self-employed workers are a small fraction of computer occupations. But I wouldn't have necessarily expected this behavior. https://t.co/g6qedjNvb2
Both Employment Levels and Hiring Flows Matter for Labor Health
Great @lydiadepillis article. One of the things I became convinced of at CEA is that stocks (employment) & flows (hires, fires, ease of finding a job) are both important to labor market health, but economists tend to weight the former...
Jobless Rate Drops, but Labor Participation Declines
+178K NFP, +68K 3MMA, -7K 2M revisions U3 rate down -0.18pp to 4.26% (good) but this happened because EPOP down -0.04pp & LFPR down -0.16pp (not good) https://t.co/fDs33qdA2H