Post‑
This is the best retrospective analysis of Liberation Day-vintage tariff price effect estimates versus reality that I've seen. Post-Liberation Day policy changes, trade exceptions/loopholes, and passthrough uncertainty have been key.
US Job Churn Hits Near‑Recession Lows, JOLTS Shows
With this latest JOLTS release, we're at a US labor market churn rate that's among the lowest since data began, rivaling the depths of the Great Recession. https://t.co/F9CRiQJ4c9
BA Wage Premium Plummeted During Pandemic, Rebounded by 2025
What's interesting is that if you align on experience [left], comparing entry level workers with a BA to younger non-BA workers with little/no experience, the BA wage premium was stable for decades then fell precipitously during the pandemic, only rising...
Modern TV's Relentless Yearly Seasons Erode Quality
Legitimately the worst aspect of modern TV. It would have been nearly unthinkable even 15 years ago for a show like Pluribus not to be ready to go each year with a new season (I remember the extreme let down...
Entry-Level Legal Jobs Slightly Above Trend, Finance Below
So far, entry-level share of employment in legal, financial, & office admin occupations doesn't look functionally different from pre-2023 trends (the population is aging so important to benchmark). A bit above trend for legal, a bit below for finance, in...
CPI Changes Make Post‑blue Line Comparisons Invalid
It’s particularly amazing because we’ve had extensive methodological changes to CPI since the blue line ended, including a major one literally the month after it ended that make this comparison apples-to-oranges.
Wage Growth and Services Inflation Keep Labor Market Tight
I basically agree. There are genuine anxiety closets in the labor market worth monitoring but the tenaciousness of wage growth & core services inflation suggest its state is still one of net heat overall. Modeling from the @KansasCityFed estimates we're...
Wage Growth Slows, Services Inflation Remains Stubborn
A propos of Powell's comments just now: non-housing services inflation versus ECI wage growth. You can see a bit of a wedge opening up, with nominal wage growth cooling while services inflation stays tenacious. https://t.co/WmtcQV5Cxr
FOMC Keeps Short‑Run Rates, Raises Long‑Run Growth Outlook
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
Sweden Mandates Permanent Hires After Two Years
Incredibly, Sweden passed a staffing law that went into effect--I'm not making this up--Oct 2022. It requires temp/staffing firms to offer permanent positions after 24 months, & there's legal speculation there it might apply to consulting firms too. 1/2 https://t.co/xwN37kW7ne
Prime‑age Participation Rates Hit Record Highs Despite Aging Workforce
The *number* outside the labor force will organically rise as the population ages. It says *zero* about labor market health. A better measure is the participation *rate* of prime-age individuals, which excludes those likeliest to be retired or students. It's near...
Productivity Surge Driven by Deeper Capital Utilization, Not AI
@sffed updated their numbers Friday: Strong 2.6% labor productivity growth driven by higher utilization: deeper use of capital & labor, e.g. existing data centers exerting higher CPU loads. To be clear, this is real & it may be AI-related, but it's not...
Payroll Growth Stalls, Unemployment Ticks up, Breakeven Remains Marginal
Over the last 6 months, payroll employment growth has averaged -1K/month while the unemployment rate has risen +0.12pp. Consistent with the idea that we're at a shallow but still slightly-positive breakeven on the NFP side, which we're obviously not clearing over...
NFP Shows Sharp Industry Swings; Health Care Near Zero
NFP swings by industry between Feb 2026 & prior 12M average. Couple of notes: 1. Even adj for Kaiser strike, health care was near-0 in Feb, a large swing down from its prior +36K/M average. 2. Big down swings in Leisure &...
Young Non‑College Workers See Sharp Employment Decline
That young workers are broadly seeing a decline in employment rates regardless of education is consistent with our low-churn labor market. Hiring & voluntary quits have corrected from their 2021/22 Great Resignation highs & now young workers are feeling frontline...
Pandemic Hiring Mistakes Rival AI's Labor Market Impact
AI could be affecting the labor market right now, but it's also important to remember that we're all still living in the shadow of pandemic decisions made years ago. We should treat their downstream effects as at least as strong...
Economy Accelerates Sorting of Winners and Losers
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1
Base Case Unlikely
Helpful thought-experiment, but undersells: 1) competition & demand elasticity for cheaper code, 2) how fast monetary & fiscal pol move at 10% U3, & 3) wealth effects/reinvestment bolstering productivity & offsetting wage loss. Tail risk yes. Base case no. https://t.co/BDbOcr4sHF