Iran Secures Chinese Spy Satellite, Enables US Base Targeting
‚Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to a Financial Times investigation. Leaked Iranian military documents show the satellite, known as TEE-01B, was acquired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force in late 2024 after it was launched into space from China.‘
U.S. Depletes JASSM-ER Stockpile in Iran Conflict
US reportedly committing nearly its entire JASSM-ER inventory to the Iran war. Per @Bloomberg: ~2,300 pre-war stockpile, 1,000+ already fired, & after repositioning remaining missiles to CENTCOM/UK bases, only ~425 left for rest of the world 👇 https://t.co/qqkf8ERauf
Weak Enemy, Stronger Foes: A Flawed Strategy
Fighting a second-rate military power while vicariously and indirectly militarily and economically strengthening two first-order ones, which you may have to confront at a later stage, through your actions, and the sequencing problems it creates, may perhaps not be sound...
Denmark Armed for Potential US Attack Amid Greenland Threat
‚If the U.S. attempted an attack, Danish forces would be armed and ready to fight. Danish F-35 fighter jets deployed north were also fully armed. All this despite the understanding that Denmark could not realistically withstand a U.S. military attack.‘
Russia Loses More Ukrainian Ground than It Gains.
‘Black Bird, a Finnish war-monitoring group, said Russian troops in February lost more Ukrainian territory than they captured for the first time since November 2023. But Russian soldiers have advanced in other areas, including at the southern edge of the Zaporizhzhia...
Tactical Wins Won’t Guarantee Strategic Victory for US
As with much else, the Trump administration is not so much a break but a continuation on steroids of some issues concerning the overall US warfighting approach — e.g., the difficulty of linking technically-tactically impressive strikes at the tactical level...
Vienna Becomes Russian Hub Targeting NATO Communications
“It’s one of our main concerns about Russian activity here. We know they have been targeting Nato government and military communications with what they’ve got,” said one senior European diplomat based in Vienna. “Vienna has really taken on a lot...
U.S. Pacific Quick‑Response Force Gaps Amid Deployments
‘With an East Coast expeditionary unit supporting the war in Venezuela and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit deploying to the Middle East (the 31st is usually based out of Okinawa, Japan), there will be no quick response force to aid...
Trump's Waning Interest Stalls US‑led Ukraine Peace Push
‘The US-led peace process in Ukraine is fizzling out because Donald Trump is losing interest in the talks and his war against Iran is easing pressure on Russia, officials say.’ https://t.co/6VFAHJrvaZ
Depleted Munitions Undermine Deterrence, Destabilizing Europe and Asia
Precision-strike warfare is in part only as credible as your stockpiles. Waste munitions in a war of choice that in some categories take years to replace, and conventional deterrence in Europe and Asia degrades by default. So it’s fair to...
Trump Era Depleted Critical Munitions, Raising Conflict Cost Concerns
‘The Trump administration has burned through “years” of critical munitions since the start of the war with Iran, said three people familiar with the matter, fuelling concerns about the rising cost of the conflict and the US’s ability to replenish...
Russia Teaches Iran Ukraine Drone Tactics for Gulf Attacks
"Russia is helping Iran with advanced drone tactics from its war in Ukraine to hit US and Gulf nation targets in the Middle East, according to a Western intelligence official." https://t.co/7hTxSdMNpO
Ukraine Talks US, Gulf States on Acoustic Drone Defense
‚Ukraine is in talks with the US and several Gulf states about replicating Kyiv’s acoustic detection network to counter Iranian attack drones, according to people familiar with the matter.‘ https://t.co/ddTJ6sojt5
Flashy Strikes Replace Strategy, Myth of Leader Decapitation Fails
‚What emerges is…the “strike-as-strategy” paradox: the substitution of impressive tactical actions for comprehensive strategic design. Under Trump, this tendency is reinforced by a political culture that demands televised displays of military prowess. The Maduro raid will encourage the dangerous notion that...
AI-Driven Tool Accelerates Iran Strike Planning in Real Time
‚As planning for a potential strike in Iran was underway, Maven, powered by Claude, suggested hundreds of targets, issued precise location coordinates, and prioritized those targets according to importance, said two of the people. The pairing of Maven and Claude...
Defense Secretary’s Confidence Echoes Historic War Pledges
The US Secretary of Defense saying “we can sustain this” is a bit akin to the allies declaring in 1942 that they can sustain the fight against Italy, or in 1917 against the Ottoman Empire — if you get my...
US Raids Deplete Stocks, Undermine Future Deterrence
A short- to mid-term military risk isn't the US running out of interceptors or PGMs in this conflict per se. It is the opportunity costs. This US-Israeli raiding approach to warfare, if it continues at the current operational tempo for...
Iran Strikes Test Ukraine Drone Warfare Assumptions
Those who have argued that in Ukraine two degraded Soviet-era armies are fighting each other, and that their experience in unmanned warfare has limited relevance for our doctrine, force structure, and design — because NATO/US would fight differently, i.e. first...
MDO’s Decapitation Focus Widen Tactical‑Strategic Gap
Theoretical constructs such as Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) widen, rather than narrow, the gap between the tactical, military level of warfare and the strategic, political one. This is partly due to the widespread assumption of MDO planners that decapitation strikes at...
Iran Saturates Defenses; US‑Israel Strike Preemptively
It’s a race for and against time in the Middle East: Iran is pursuing an attritional approach by attempting to saturate air defenses, hoping to deplete interceptor stocks. The US, Israel, and its allies counter with left-of-launch strikes aimed at...
Ukraine's 2026 Defense Shifts Away From Trenches
Interesting analysis. Fortifications & trenches will be less important for Ukraine’s defenses in 2026 than in previous years.
Future Doctrine: Maneuver as Rare, Deliberate, Protected Operation
“Old doctrine assumes maneuver is the default way to fight. Future doctrine should treat it as a rare, deliberate act that is planned, resourced, and protected.” https://t.co/U0K4HrDClf
Interceptor Stockpiles Dictate Middle East Precision Strike Outcomes
Any strike campaign in the Middle East employing precision-guided munitions will be shaped by the United States’ and Israel’s interceptor stockpiles and magazine depth. As @AmosFox6 and I like to say, you may not be interested in attrition, but attrition...
Massive U.S. Air Power Buildup Hits Middle East
This looks like one of the largest buildups of U.S. air power and precision strike capabilities in the Middle East in over 2 decades.
Russia's Dwindling Time Exposes Military‑political Mismatch
„Although Ukraine faces challenges, time is less and less on Russia’s side, however much Moscow portrays the situation otherwise. Moscow cannot wish away the fundamental mismatch between the military means it has available and the political aims it seeks to...
Starlink Shutdown Blinds Russian Drones and Command Posts
“The shutdown didn’t only reduce Russian drone strikes. On the front lines, it also partially blinded Russian command posts and drone crews that relied on Starlink for communication, livestreams and more-precise control of assaults as commanders got real-time footage of...
Europe's NATO Forces Unprepared for Prolonged Russian Conflict
I enjoyed this conversation. Mike, the team, and I discuss how European NATO militaries would fare in a conflict with Russia, how long it might take Europe to reach a point where it can assume greater responsibility for its own...
Modern Militaries Mirror 17th‑Century Blend of Legacy and Emerging Tech
In my book ‘The Return of War’, I argue that, in terms of force design and force structure diversity, we are in a period similar to the early 17th century—when legacy systems were still needed to shore up brittle emerging...
Ukraine Schedules Election, Peace Referendum Under US Deadline
‚Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees.‘ https://t.co/a5qNMFn19n