Most Central Banks Pause; only a Few Raise Rates
Big week for central banks: Fed (the big show, hold) BoJ (hike) RBA (hold) Riksbank (hold) Norges (hold) SNB (hold) BoE (hold) Indonesia (hike) Philippine (hike) Taiwan (hold)
ECB Raises Rates, Flags Higher Inflation, Slower Growth
🇪🇺 ECB hikes rates for the first time since September 2023. Inflation projections revised higher (though 2026 core HICP at 2.5% looks a bit lower than feared); GDP growth projections down (0.8% in 2026). July may be live, but the ECB is...
ECB Faces Surge in Services Inflation Ahead of Rate Hike
🇪🇺 A very bad inflation report for the ECB, including a 50bp rise in services inflation that looks at odds with national data, way above staff projections. Likely to be reversed, but this will keep the ECB on high alert following...
Bond Market Pressures ECB to Hike Despite Credibility Doubts
🇪🇺 Olli Rehn is basically giving up to the idea that the ECB "needs to hike" to "preserve credibility". The bond market is doing part of the heavy lifting for the central bank, but it’s also forcing their hand because...
Warsh Faces New Task: Stop Rate Hikes, Not Cut Cuts
Also, we live in a different world from when Warsh was nominated. Will he still push for cuts coming into the job, or will his main challenge be to convince the FOMC *not to hike*?
Norges Bank Joins BoJ, RBA in G10 Rate Hikes
The Norges Bank becomes the third G10 central bank to hike rates in this cycle, after the BoJ and the RBA. https://t.co/YsiMv6xS3J
NY Fed Index Hits Covid-Level Supply Chain Disruptions
🇺🇸 The NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index jumped in April to Covid-like disruption levels. https://t.co/ywfPzNS5oq https://t.co/23NKq4esGS
ECB Wage Tracker Stays Stable, No Second‑round Inflation Signs
🇪🇺 Latest update to the ECB's wage tracker has remained broadly stable around levels consistent with price stability, and showing no signs of second-round effects. https://t.co/lReQ51MJvs https://t.co/50YJRx98ru
Moulin's Credentials Meet, but Gender Diversity Remains Missing
Emmanuel Moulin has the credentials and the experience to be appointed Governor of the Banque de France. He’s also: - part of Macron’s inner circle of loyalists - not a woman
ECB May Hike in June,
🇪🇺 MNI sources: ECB set to hike in June, then keep options open 🇫🇷 France fighting back: *ECB'S VILLEROY: DON'T YET SEE SUFFICIENT SIGNS FOR RATE HIKE ✊
ECB Delays Decision, Promises Review Next Month
The ECB is "not pre-committing" to any decision, but it is "bound to revisit" the situation next month. Hope you you picked up on the nuance.
Lagarde Signals Hawkish Shift, Rate Hike on Table
Here's @lagarde's hawkish signal: "we are certainly moving away from our baseline". The unanimous decision to remain on hold was based on "insufficient information, but a rate hike was also discussed today.
ECB Warns of Rising Inflation Risks, Growth Slowdown
🇪🇺 ECB: on alert, but not overreacting 👏 "the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified" "longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although inflation expectations over shorter horizons have moved up significantly"
Questioning ECB’s Early Look at Q2 Forecasts
My question to @Lagarde would be: did the Governing Council have a first look at the Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2? If so, how bad does it look? https://t.co/rvxtO93HNC
Firms Expect Higher Prices, Yet Inflation Remains Stable
🇪🇺 The ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) shows an increase in selling prices expectations over the next 12 months, but also stable long-term inflation expectations, lower wage growth expectations, and tighter funding conditions. https://t.co/gOrkAXRGGm