US Tariff Revenue Plummets to $23B, Fiscal Risks Loom
🇺🇸 Another problem looming in the US is the decline in tariff revenues, to just $23bn in April. Maximum uncertainty following SCOTUS ruling, new sections, and refunds, but ultimately the drop in tariff revenues may become an issue again from a fiscal perspective. https://t.co/otmZCOK9p6
Manufacturing Prices Surge, Services Prices Remain Flat
🇪🇺 The PMI chart landing on @Lagarde's desk: - big rise in output prices in manufacturing (less than half of the 2022 peak) - very small rise in prices charged in services Consistent with a hold in April, and a cautious stance...
Energy Shock Hits Industry, Services See Limited Pass‑Through
🇪🇺 Mixed takeaways from euro area PMIs on the pass-through from energy prices. Bad news: a big shock going through industrial supply chains, all the way to output prices. Good news: more limited pass-through to prices charged in services (some in Germany,...
ECB Holds Off April Rate Hike Amid Uncertainty
🇪🇺ECB unlikely to hike in April. @Lagarde: « This double uncertainty about the duration of the shock and the breadth of pass-through argues for gathering more information before drawing firm conclusions for our monetary policy. » https://t.co/nkISsCK5gz
Tariffs Push Inflation Up, Cut Fiscal Revenues
Remember tariffs? They are the main reason inflation remains above target, having added 0.8% to goods inflation. They are fuelling fragmentation and supply chain pressure. Oh, and fiscal revenues are running 25% below projections, and falling. Other than that, tariffs are great....
Eurozone Inflation Surprise: Core Goods and Services Fall
🇪🇺 Euro area HICP flash estimate came in below expectations, with both core goods (-23bp) and services inflation (-13bp) down in March. Early days, focus will be any signs of second-round effects, etc etc. https://t.co/AaktjkVaKZ
European Consumer Inflation Expectations Surge, Business Outlook Remains Tame
🇪🇺Another unsurprising yet unpleasant chart, showing a sharp rise in European consumer inflation expectations. Expectations from companies were much more contained though. The bigger focus will be on potential second round effects, too early to tell. https://t.co/zQ567go12i
Norges Bank Signals Upcoming Rate Hike This Year
🇳🇴 Norges Bank hawkish pivot charted. The policy rate is expected to be raised "at one of the forthcoming meetings" assuming the economy "evolves broadly as currently envisaged". https://t.co/3LIbGfEvOW
ECB Baseline Assumes Two Hikes; Worse Scenarios Need More
Subtle but important point. The ECB's baseline incorporates nearly two rate hikes. The adverse and severe scenarios use the same assumptions, and thus may require more than two hikes to bring inflation back to target. Only makes things sligthly less...
June ECB Rate Hike More Likely than April
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
ECB Baseline Obsolete as Markets Price Adverse Inflation
🇪🇺 Unfortunately for the ECB, and despite the staff best efforts to use a later-than-usual cut-off date, their baseline scenario looks instantly obsolete. Market pricing for inflation is already consistent with the adverse scenarios. The main question is about indirect effects....
ECB Forecasts Mild Recession With
🇪🇺 ECB's risks scenarios, including a severe shock generating a mild recession, a rise in unemployment and core inflation peaking at 4%. The latter don't include any monetary policy change as @Lagarde noted, as opposed to the staff which accounts...
ECB Stays Cautious, Emphasizes Energy Shock Ripple Effects
🇪🇺 ECB decision more balanced. The GC is "well positioned to navigate this uncertainty", not signalling any imminent move. Risk scenarios to be published at 3:45pm. Key will be "the magnitude of indirect and second-round effects of a stronger and...
SNB Signals Greater Willingness to Intervene in FX
🇨🇭 Stronger verbal intervention language from the SNB: "the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased". https://t.co/yuDHGc7oUG https://t.co/wcrzVudyN7
RBA Leads Rate Hikes, Others Remain Silent
All talk, no action from other central banks this week, except for the RBA which hiked rates to 4.10%, the highest among DM central banks. https://t.co/JKCGcBPwIG
US Gas Prices YTD Rise Exceeds 2022 Levels
🇺🇸 The year-to-date increase in US gasoline prices is now larger than in 2022. https://t.co/2FtHzNrQpA
ECB's Kazimir Signals Imminent Rate Hike, Ready to Act
🇪🇺 Not only did @KazimirPeter signal a strong ECB hawkish bias, but he said that every meeting should be alive after March. *ECB'S KAZIMIR SAYS RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOUGHT "I don’t want to speculate about April or...
Markets Overreact: Pricing Unlikely Rate Hikes Across Europe
Markets pricing in rate hikes from the ECB, the BoE... and the SNB. You gotta be kidding me.
US Officials Endorse Releasing 300‑400 Million Barrels
“US officials believe a joint release in the range of 300mn-400mn barrels — 25 to 30 per cent of the 1.2bn barrels in the reserve — would be appropriate.”
Euro Inflation Stable; Service Spike Likely Temporary
🇪🇺 Don't think there's much to worry about in today's euro area inflation numbers. Core goods inflation is rising, but several temporary factors drove the upside surprise in services (Olympics effect?), barely offsetting the downside surprises from last months. https://t.co/UqbbT9rLY9
Macron Urges EU to Adopt Eurobonds Now
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk