Job Openings Outpace Unemployed, Signaling Labor Market Stabilization
NEWS: There are more job openings than unemployed workers in the US for the first time since June 2025. April job openings: 7,618,000 April unemployed: 7,373,000 people CAVEATS: This doesn't mean everything is great in the job market (or that companies are even hiring. The hiring rate remains anemic at 3.2%). There was also a big jump in job openings in April (mainly in professional/biz services). The data is likely to be revised. But...it's another sign that the labor market may be stabilizing after a tough year from tariffs, "right-sizing" etc.
Everyday Essentials—Gas, Groceries, Electricity—Prices All Climbing
It's not just gas prices going up... Grocery prices and electricity also jumping. These are the basic costs for most Americans.
More Hours, Lower Real Pay as Inflation Erodes Wages
Americans are trying to work more hours to keep up as gas and food prices rise. Even so, real average weekly earnings **Decreased** in April as inflation ate up all the wage gains and extra hours worked. Real weekly earnings for...
Inflation Outpaces Wage Gains, Squeezing American Finances
JUST IN: Inflation is now eating up all wage gains for the first time in about three years. This is painful for Americans and a true financial squeeze. CPI Inflation in past year: 3.8% Wage gains: in past year: 3.6% https://t.co/dNa5VvS5DE
US Inflation Spikes to 3.8% in April, Driven by Gas
JUST IN: U.S. inflation jumped to 3.8% (y/y) in April--> the highest in three years. This is painful for Americans, especially moderate-income households. Inflation rose 0.6% in the month of April due to soaring gas prices that accounted for over 40%...
Inflation Outpaces Wage Growth, Squeezing US Workers
Inflation is wiping out wage gains. This is the big Achilles Heel in the US economy. April wage growth: 3.6% April inflation expected to be ~4% Wages are being eaten up by inflation due to the war in Iran. This is a big...
Jobs Surge, but Inflation Threatens Wage Gains
JUST IN: Good news. The US economy added a strong 115,000 jobs in April (and March was revised higher to 185,000!) The unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%. Hiring was strong in healthcare (about 1/3 of job gains in April), retail...
Business Investment Outpaces Consumer Spending in Q1 GDP
Business investment contributed **more** to GDP in Q1 than consumer spending. This is an AI economy now. Business investment contribution to Q1 GDP: 1.48 Personal consumption contribution to Q1 GDP: 1.08 (Joey's great chart shows the biz investment in green vs. consumption in yellow)
US Savings Rate Hits 3.6%, Leaving Households Vulnerable
Important: The US savings rate fell to 3.6% in March. That's the lowest since fall 2022 (the "revenge spend" era). And it's frankly one of the lower readings of all time. American households are getting squeezed. Many are not able to save...
AI Drives Record Business Investment, Consumer Spending Stalls
This is the AI economy now. Just incredible to see the +10.4% jump in business investment in Q1. That's the highest since Q2 2023 (when the big semiconductor factory buildout was underway. Now it's all AI) Notice consumption: +1.6%. That's pretty tepid....
PCE Inflation Peaks at 3.5% Amid Iran Conflict
JUST IN: PCE Inflation jumped to 3.5% in March, the highest in three years (since May 2023). This is a direct result of the war in Iran. And the pain will almost certainly be worse in April and (likely) May. Core...
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.30, Adding $70 Monthly
Oof. The US national gas average just hit $4.30, according to AAA. That's the highest since July 2022. Gas prices have shot up $1.40 since the war in Iran began. That's adding ~$70 extra a month to household costs. #gas #inflation...
Oil Flows Through Hormuz Won’t Normalize Until July
Rystad Energy says it will take until July for roughly normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz "Our analysis shows that it would take until July for oil flows to normalize to some 80-90% of pre-war production levels, and another 1-2...
2026 Tax Refunds Rise, But Far Below Forecasts
NEW from me: The White House (and many economists) expected $700 to $1,000 higher refunds, on average. The reality is closer to $375. Bottom line: Yes, refunds are higher in 2026 (and likely to be the highest ever). But it's less...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Petrodollar for First Time in 50 Years
No deal this weekend. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed Oil prices are surging again. U.S. about to blockade New @moronomics podcast episode breaks down what this means and why this is the biggest threat to the “petrodollar” in 50 years...