US Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Amid Iran War
Americans are not happy with the war in Iran. Consumer sentiment just fell to a record low in April. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers has data back to 1952. The 47.6 reading in April is lower than the tariffs last spring (52.2) and lower than the dreaded inflation spike in the summer of 2022 (50.0). Consumer expect inflation to be 4.8% in the year ahead.
March Inflation Hits 3.3% as Energy Prices Surge
JUST IN: Inflation soared in March to 3.3% y/y--> the highest annual rate since May 2024. The war in Iran is squeezing middle income and lower income households. **Inflation in March alone rose 0.9%. That’s the biggest one-month jump since June...
February Real Income Turns Negative, Signaling Economic Strain
Important point from Ben -- Americans' income was already **negative** in February once you adjust for inflation. People were having to dip into savings or turn to credit cards to fund their spending, even before gas prices jumped to $4. This is...
Spending Surges While Income Falls, Spring Outlook Uncertain
JUST IN: American consumers were clearly continuing to spend (orange bars). February was the strongest spending since August. But take a look at personal income (blue bars). It was actually negative in February. Income has not always kept up with spending...
Spending Remains Strong; Demand Destruction Not Yet Evident
Friday shoutout to @joebrusuelas, chief economist at RSM, who has been doing some of the best analysis of the war in Iran's economic impact. The key question now is: When does the oil price shock trigger demand destruction? Joe has a great...
Healthcare Drives US Job Growth as Other Sectors Shrink
The big picture: The US economy has added only 260,000 jobs in the past year. 380,000 jobs were added in healthcare. Most other industries *lost* jobs Federal gov't -330,000 in past year Information -76,000 Manufacturing -75,000 Finance -67,000 State gov't -47,000 Professional services -40,000 Retail -30,000 Mining -17,000 #jobs
Wage Growth Slows to 3.5%, Threatened by Rising Inflation
Important point: Wage growth slowed in March to 3.5%. That's the lowest since May 2021. 3.5% looks decent, but we're in the midst of a big surge inflation as gas and transport costs rise. We could easily hit 4%+ inflation, which will...
Unemployment Down, Labor Force Shrinks: Hidden Weakness
Here's the somewhat troubling news in the jobs report: The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, but not for great reasons. There's a big drop (almost -400k) in the labor force. The labor force participation rate also fell. It appears people stopped looking...
U.S. Hiring Drops to 3.1%, Signaling Looming Layoffs
Yikes. The U.S. hiring rate fell to 3.1% in February, the lowest since April 2020. This is a hiring recession. And Americans are feeling it. There were notable hiring pullbacks in February in hospitality and construction. Bottom line: The job market...
Fuel Hits $4+ per Gallon, Spurring Spending Slowdown
The AAA average fuel price is officially over $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-August 2022. Prices are up over $1 since the war in Iran began. Americans are paying $50 a month more in fuel costs. This is a...
US Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Historic Lows Amid Uncertainty
US Consumer Sentiment just fell in March to 53.3, one of the lowest readings of all time. The only lower readings? Nov/Dec 2025 after longest gov't shutdown April/May 2025 after 'Liberation Day' tariffs June/July 2022 during inflation spike Americans are struggling to navigate all...
Powell: No Cuts Now, One in 2026, Not Stagflation
Summary of Fed Chair Powell today: 1) He'll stay as Chair until a new chair is confirmed by Senate 2) He'll stay at Fed until criminal investigation is "truly over" 3) No rate cut today. Only 1 cut likely for 2026 4) No one...
Powell Admits Uncertainty on Oil Shock’s Economic Impact
Fed Chair Powell says we "just don't know" what impact of oil shock will be. "The standard learning is that you look through energy shocks, but that’s always been dependent on inflation expectations remaining WELL ANCHORED." "The US economy is doing pretty...
Fed Sees Modest Iran‑driven Inflation, Limited Cuts Ahead
Take a look at the Fed's new projections: 1 rate cut in 2026 1 rate cut in 2027 Higher inflation forecast **Slightly higher GDP forecast** --> this signals they are NOT projecting "stagflation" Unemployment rate staying around the current level (4.4%) Bottom line: Fed currently signaling...
Fed Holds Rates, Forecasts First Cut Only in 2026
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
Car Ownership Costs up 41%, Outpacing wagesCar Ownership Costs up 41%, Outpacing Wages
The cost of buying and owning a car has soared since the pandemic. Navy Federal's Cost of Car Ownership Index is +41% since January 2020 CPI is +26% since January 2020 Wages are +31% Almost every aspect of buying, owning, insuring and repairing...
Disposable Income Surges, Outpacing Spending and Boosting Savings
Notable: Disposable income (blue bar) surged in January. That was the first time in months that income growth was higher than spending growth (orange bar) Savings also ticked up (black line). I'm not sure what drove that jump in income. Minimum wage...
Core P
Just In: PCE Inflation was 2.8% in January, a bit below expectations. But Core PCE Inflation was 3.1%, the highest since March 2024. **PCE Inflation could easily hit 4% this spring due to the war in Iran** It's notable that PCE...
Whack‑a‑Mole Inflation Hits Essentials,
The biggest problem for many Americans is that we have "whack-a-mole" inflation. Just as some items get back to more normal price points, other items start spiking. It's hard to budget and plan when you don't know what's spiking next. Look...
February Inflation Stagnates at 2.4% Amid Rising Costs
JUST IN: A cool February inflation reading. Inflation remained at 2.4% (y/y) in February, the same as January. This reading was before the war in Iran began, so gas prices were still below $3 average. -->Note that some items had larger...
Gas Hits $3.54, Adding $25 Monthly Tax
What a chart. Gas prices are now $3.54, up more than 55 cents since before the war in Iran began. This is the highest gas price ever under President Trump (including his first term). This is effectively a $25/mo. tax on most households....
Young, Black, Hispanic, Asian Americans Face Rising Unemployment
Important point: February was a dismal jobs report. But look closer at who is suffering the most in this frozen job market... Young people African Americans Hispanic Americans Asian Americans These are the groups that have had the biggest uptick in unemployment rates. https://t.co/zszvNZ2Xv3
February Sees Job Losses Across Nearly All Sectors
Yikes. Almost every major industry group shed jobs in February. Private sector overall: -86,000 Hospitality -27,000 Healthcare -28,000 Manufacturing -12,000 Tranport/warehouse -11,000 Construction -11,000 Information -11,000 Federal gov't -10,000 Professional/biz -5,000 Mining -2,000 Social assistance +9,000 Finance +10,000 #jobs
Economy Shifts From K-Shape to Emerging “E” Shape
Is this still a K-shaped economy? This was a hot topic of conversation at the #NABE conference this week. In 2026, I told @hdubroff that I see more of "E" shaped economy. https://t.co/rYUsXmGuCy https://t.co/JHiwnPutqZ