Ilya Spivak

Ilya Spivak

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Global macro strategist; FX and central bank watcher; technical and macro takes.

Fed's Inflation Focus Risks Stock Market Amid Iran War
SocialApr 28, 2026

Fed's Inflation Focus Risks Stock Market Amid Iran War

Will the Fed break the stock market as Chair Powell and the FOMC dial up their focus on inflation amid the US-Iran war? #Fed #FOMC #Powell #IranWar #StockMarket #Dollar #Oil #Gold #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ER2QbNR0qa

By Ilya Spivak
Bitcoin Eyes Reversal as Markets Digest Iran Ceasefire
SocialApr 23, 2026

Bitcoin Eyes Reversal as Markets Digest Iran Ceasefire

As most major markets - S&P 500, gold, bonds, oil, US dollar - are still trying to make sense of the "one-way ceasefire" in the Iran war, bitcoin is quietly trying to flip its downtrend... #stockmarket #IranWar‌ #bitcoin #macro #trading https://t.co/vy877KICW6

By Ilya Spivak
Iran‑US Stalemate Raises Market Uncertainty
SocialApr 21, 2026

Iran‑US Stalemate Raises Market Uncertainty

The Iran war is at a stalemate as the US hits pause on talks amid conflicting signals from Tehran. Is this good or bad news for the stock market? #stockmarket #IranWar‌ #oil #dollar #gold #macro #trading https://t.co/Fc1ybvv6V0

By Ilya Spivak
Markets Brace for Iran Conflict Impact on US Economy
SocialApr 20, 2026

Markets Brace for Iran Conflict Impact on US Economy

Is the Iran war already hurting the US economy? For their next trick, markets will try to make sense of US retail sales data alongside headlines from the Middle East. #stockmarket #IranWar‌ #economy #macro #trading #dollar #oil https://t.co/K6KFiZlhQl

By Ilya Spivak
Exited Short Position Just Before Breakout Confirmation
SocialApr 17, 2026

Exited Short Position Just Before Breakout Confirmation

...and just like that, I'm out of that extra short stocks exposure playing the range top test. Looks like we have a breakout - no need to stand in front of the train. Now let's see if this holds

By Ilya Spivak
Decoding the Rally: How to Trade What's Next
SocialApr 17, 2026

Decoding the Rally: How to Trade What's Next

Discussing whether the blistering stock market rally makes sense and how to think about trading what's next, today with @julesaly on @ausbiztv https://t.co/s01ngUXDJV

By Ilya Spivak
Stocks Rally on Ceasefire Hopes; Commodities Stay Cautious
SocialApr 13, 2026

Stocks Rally on Ceasefire Hopes; Commodities Stay Cautious

Stock markets and the US dollar are painting a rosy picture, with traders seemingly seeing a ceasefire heralding the end of the US-Iran war. Bonds, gold, and oil prices are telling a different story. #IranWar‌ #StockMarket #gold #oil #macro #trading https://t.co/wLRi4EJNxA

By Ilya Spivak
US Jobs Data Fuels Dollar Rise, Stocks and Bonds Dip
SocialApr 4, 2026

US Jobs Data Fuels Dollar Rise, Stocks and Bonds Dip

Stocks and bonds may fall again while the dollar gains after deceptively upbeat US jobs data. #NFP #Stocks #Dollar #Macro #Trading #IranWar‌ https://t.co/bSlTNo7Fkg

By Ilya Spivak
Markets Snap Back to Trend After Failed War‑off‑ramp Hope
SocialApr 2, 2026

Markets Snap Back to Trend After Failed War‑off‑ramp Hope

One way to see today’s risk-off trade is markets hoped for an Iran war off-ramp in President Trump’s speech and there wasn’t one. Another is that markets were receptive to hopium at month- and quarter-end this week and now we’re on...

By Ilya Spivak
Insights on Gold Trading and Miner Strategies
SocialApr 2, 2026

Insights on Gold Trading and Miner Strategies

Great chat with @TheGoldAdvisor today about trading gold and the miners. Check out the full video here - https://t.co/oRfb8RCoje

By Ilya Spivak
Markets Signal Recession Risk Amid Iran Conflict
SocialMar 31, 2026

Markets Signal Recession Risk Amid Iran Conflict

Will the Iran war trigger a recession? Price action across global financial markets seems to have come up with the answer. #stockmarket #recession #IranWar‌ #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/Oll4XR3PQa

By Ilya Spivak
Midday Rally Fades as Bond and Gold Risks Rise
SocialMar 30, 2026

Midday Rally Fades as Bond and Gold Risks Rise

Stocks were up on the day when we recorded this midday on Wall St, but growth risk dynamics in bonds and gold suggested they'd struggle to hold up. The S&P 500 gave up gains by day's end, Nasdaq closed down,...

By Ilya Spivak
Markets Overestimate Rate Hikes; PMI Says Otherwise
SocialMar 25, 2026

Markets Overestimate Rate Hikes; PMI Says Otherwise

The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....

By Ilya Spivak
Amid Iran War Hype, Hidden Trade Opportunity Emerges
SocialMar 25, 2026

Amid Iran War Hype, Hidden Trade Opportunity Emerges

Markets are jumping from one Iran war headline to the next, but look through the noise and this trade seems to be hiding in plain sight. #IranWar‌ #Macro #Dollar #Trading #Markets https://t.co/iAgNNxmpff

By Ilya Spivak