Ilya Spivak

Ilya Spivak

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Global macro strategist; FX and central bank watcher; technical and macro takes.

Powell Delivers One of Central Banking’s Finest Press Conferences
SocialMar 18, 2026

Powell Delivers One of Central Banking’s Finest Press Conferences

In my 20+ years watching markets, this is one of the best central bank press conferences I've ever seen. Its right up there with Draghi and Bernanke's greatest hits. Chair Powell is in rare form.

By Ilya Spivak
Oil Slides as Iran Opens Hormuz, Markets Rally
SocialMar 17, 2026

Oil Slides as Iran Opens Hormuz, Markets Rally

Crude oil prices ticked down after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all but its "enemies", lifting stocks and pulling down the US dollar. Is the crisis ending? #oil #IranWar‌ #stocks #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/1OST27OxI9

By Ilya Spivak
Crude Surge Drives Bonds, Dollar, S&P 500 Movements
SocialMar 13, 2026

Crude Surge Drives Bonds, Dollar, S&P 500 Movements

Nice chat with @julesaly looking at how the surge in crude oil is shaping price action in bonds, the US dollar, and the S&P 500. Today on @ausbiztv: https://t.co/8j3fNOcH2C

By Ilya Spivak
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation Fears, Squeezes Stocks
SocialMar 12, 2026

Oil Spike Fuels Inflation Fears, Squeezes Stocks

Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what? #crudeoil #oilprices #IranWar‌ #stocks #stockmarket #inflation #macro #trading #dollar https://t.co/jccqS0V3d3

By Ilya Spivak
Oil Poised Above $102 as Pattern Confirms Bullish Move
SocialMar 11, 2026

Oil Poised Above $102 as Pattern Confirms Bullish Move

Interestingly, crude oil is up after the IEA reserve release. If this head and shoulders pattern on the near term charts plays out, we are looking at oil back above $102 a barrel. https://t.co/WA4Ceo89fg

By Ilya Spivak
US CPI Sparks Inflation Fears Amid Falling Oil Prices
SocialMar 11, 2026

US CPI Sparks Inflation Fears Amid Falling Oil Prices

Just when cooling oil prices promised a bit of relief to the market, the US CPI report threatens to revive inflation fears. #inflation #CPI #StockMarket #OilShock #crudeoil #macro #trading https://t.co/2xB2LsqJuF

By Ilya Spivak
Oil’s Wild Swing Reignites Doubts About Market Recovery
SocialMar 10, 2026

Oil’s Wild Swing Reignites Doubts About Market Recovery

Crude oil shot up toward $120/bbl, then plunged back below $90/bbl, swinging stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar along the way. Is the market meltdown really over? #USIranWar #crudeoil #stockmarket #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/9oO6NbDLq3

By Ilya Spivak
Oil and Dollar Rise as Stocks Slide Further
SocialMar 9, 2026

Oil and Dollar Rise as Stocks Slide Further

"...or we could go further... and we're going to go further." Crude oil up, dollar up, stock index futures down. 🎢

By Ilya Spivak
War‑Driven Oil Surge Threatens Gold Market Stability
SocialMar 4, 2026

War‑Driven Oil Surge Threatens Gold Market Stability

The US-Iran war has driven up oil prices, stoking inflation fears and lifting yields alongside the dollar. Will this break the gold market? #GOLD #GoldPrice #USIranConflict #Dollar #Stocks #Markets #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ciFOGnfO6T

By Ilya Spivak
Wall Street Rebounds as Oil and Gold Retreat
SocialMar 2, 2026

Wall Street Rebounds as Oil and Gold Retreat

Is the market already done with the US-Iran war? Wall Street erased early losses while gold and crude oil recoiled from panic highs. Now what? #OilPrices #Crude #Iran #IranWar #stockmarkets #Dollar #Macro https://t.co/sUv93zfPtT

By Ilya Spivak
Markets Teeter on Tariffs, Iran Tensions, Trump SOTU
SocialFeb 25, 2026

Markets Teeter on Tariffs, Iran Tensions, Trump SOTU

Stocks & the dollar hang in the balance amid tariff chaos and possible war with Iran as President Trump delivers his State of the Union speech. Are the markets in trouble? #SOTU2026 #Trump #tariffs #Iran #market #stockmarkets #DOLLAR #Macro #Trading https://t.co/PVSRBaRIjl

By Ilya Spivak
Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts
SocialFeb 20, 2026

Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts

Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq

By Ilya Spivak
Markets May Slip as Fed Delays Rate Cuts
SocialFeb 18, 2026

Markets May Slip as Fed Delays Rate Cuts

Will stock markets tip over amid worries about the Fed dragging its feet on rate cuts? FOMC meeting minutes are in focus. #stockmarkets #fed #fomc #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/yYSQfOx27L

By Ilya Spivak
Higher CPI May Keep Fed From Cutting Rates, Threatening Stocks
SocialFeb 13, 2026

Higher CPI May Keep Fed From Cutting Rates, Threatening Stocks

Are stock markets in trouble if US CPI data points the Fed away from bolder interest rate cuts? #stockmarkets #CPI #Fed #DOLLAR #macro #trading https://t.co/2Ij9Tr0kWM

By Ilya Spivak
Markets Await Jobs Data to Gauge Fed Cut Prospects
SocialFeb 11, 2026

Markets Await Jobs Data to Gauge Fed Cut Prospects

Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ

By Ilya Spivak
Markets Could Slip If Data Undermines Fed Cut Hopes
SocialFeb 10, 2026

Markets Could Slip If Data Undermines Fed Cut Hopes

Stock markets may sour if this week’s US economic data casts doubt on Fed rate cut speculation. #stockmarkets #Fed #Economy #InterestRates #USD #Macro #trading https://t.co/ZEfchApMC0

By Ilya Spivak