Borrow Rates Reveal Alpha Across Shipping, Energy, Semis
OUT NOW - super quanty interview from ~5B manager on use of good analyst // tracking borrow rate for alpha, and what that indicates about shipping/energy/semis & countries / single stocks ELITE charts. Apple https://t.co/md3zbwfGS9 Spotify https://t.co/CEuLMJIZ6g 1/2 https://t.co/vYlvmVzmCV
Insider Timeline for SpaceX IPO and Index Arbitrage
Very important info on SpaceX IPO timing and potential index arb schedule from a quiet legend in the hedge fund space @MunchingMoez
Blue Owl Fundraising Splits: Institutions Rise, Private Wealth Falls
Look at the divergence in Blue Owl Fundraising $OWL: Institutional up, private wealth down https://t.co/xUIMrqM2Lw
Powell Says He'll Stay, Exit only when Appropriate
Jay Powell: I have no choice but to stay at the Fed as a governor. I will keep a low profile. I will leave when I think it is appropriate to do so. https://t.co/zZifrDb0D5
Avoid High P/E Low‑Growth Stocks: Rule Proven
My "don't buy 60 P/E stocks that aren't growing fast" rule working pretty well. 3.5 / 5 "high qual low growth rich valuation" stocks I've highlighted have been dogs Right (they're down) $WING $FICO $CMG Wrong (it's up) $WMT Push (It's up as...
Global Economy Inching Toward a Massive Oil Shock
Haven’t seen lines like this since airlines in March 2020 It really does seem to me that the whole world is sleepwalking into a massive oil shock. Would be delighted to be wrong. What am I missing?
High GRR Shields Value Even as NDR Drops
While "cost containment" can shrink Net Dollar Retention (NDR) if upsells go way down and that does affect terminal value. BUT... ...there's a limit to how much terminal value can be eroded from software if Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) remain extremely...
Market Anticipated OpenAI Struggles; Momentum Now Positive
Already known to informed market participants. Markets started pricing this ~5 months ago... Price momentum has turned positive over past 4 weeks https://t.co/Z1qNI2S8kW
Corporate Bonds Surge 30%; Private Credit Squeezes Bank Loans
U.S. corporate bond issuance very strong, 30% growth Bank loan market struggling because private credit eating their lunch https://t.co/SAfuthERyB
PSBD’s NAV Reflects Real-Time Liquid Loan Valuations
"Our net asset value [NAV] is real," says Matt Bloomfield President $PSBD, which owns mostly broadly syndicated bank loans, which trade regularly. (Most BDCs are full of private credit loans, far more illiquid) Apple https://t.co/rSdzxl5cps Spotify https://t.co/bEg7VjRgk9 https://t.co/BZcWqJ8GQq
BDC Discount Sparks Credit Panic and Advanced CLO Talk
OUT NOW - I asked the manager of a public biz dev co (BDC) trading at steep discount if he was offended at how cheap his stock was. Plus: - software credit panic - CLOs (advanced) Apple https://t.co/tRbtB20RXP Spotify https://t.co/MQIRJD5IR1 YouTube https://t.co/FXEkTo5FVN https://t.co/H59C3q4KYT
PE's SaaS Cash‑flow Predictability Now in Question
Good primer from @DavidSacks on private equity ownership of SaaS (software) firms based on cash flows whose predictability used to be certain but now is in question. A topic which @maxwiethe have been covering a lot on our show on...
SoftBank Seeks $10 B Loan Backed by OpenAI Shares
SoftBank Group Corp. is seeking a $10 billion loan secured by its shares OpenAI https://t.co/38vMHTwsEM
Only One Ship Exited Hormuz—Unsustainable Trend
Number of ships that left Strait of Hormuz today: ONE. Singular. This is not sustainable. https://t.co/AMsiEvpfVy
Rapid Revenue Doubling Justifies Sky‑high Valuation Multiples
Paying 30x revenue for a company growing this quickly doesn't strike me as crazy Cursor is doubling its revenue every three months For example $SNOW flake went public in late 2020 at ~80x sales while growing "only" 120% annually
Japanese Mortgage Guarantor Faces Yield Impact, Low ROE Concerns
Japanese dominant independent mortgage guarantor with extremely high profit margins How they are hurt/helped by rising yields is very interesting to me Write-up from shareholder saying their ROE is too low (& they hold too much capital) https://t.co/BVNg6v8bps
Banks Hide $500B Private Credit Exposure Off‑Balance Sheet
OUT NOW - @rcwhalen on banks' "considerable" private credit exposure 🏦 There's "no transparency": use of off-balance sheet vehicles to mask true exposure of ~$500B Apple 🔊https://t.co/WuiP53leku Spotify📽️https://t.co/EdCDKXfJdy YouTube📽️https://t.co/W8EybE3tOh 1/3 https://t.co/GYxCbGMeAP
Financial Repression Exposed: BOJ Carry Trade Fuels Inequality
OUT NOW - top economists don't talk about Financial Repression (FR). That ends today. @HannoLustig on: - Bank of Japan's ~¥600 Trillion carry trade - Who hurts/benefits from FR - Inequality & Debt Crises Apple 🔊https://t.co/sn51jDcuVT Spotify📽️https://t.co/SBbM4xNOY5 1/4 https://t.co/uu9WBxzeQe
Financial Repression Deep Dive with Hanno Lustig Drops Tomorrow
Recorded a Financial Repression Deep Dive with @HannoLustig, it's an absolute monster Airing tomorrow 🔥
Zero‑percent Euro/Yen Bonds Made 2021 Borrowing Bliss
Few things sweeter in corporate finance than borrowing at 0.000% by issuing fixed-rate notes in Euros/Yen during 2021 https://t.co/Wv6Z1zNz1S
Software Loans Face Refinance Risk as Valuations Drop
20B credit manager on software loans: the challenge is not so much credit performance ("vast majority I think will perform just fine") but refinance-ability of current loans. If enterprise value is cut in half, a 40% LTV loan becomes a...
Insufficient Hormuz Transits Hinder Risk Diversification
With regards to Strait of Hormuz Insurance, I think it is tough for underwrites to see enough transits to generate a meaningful premium base and be diversified If you only are insuring 5 voyages a day you can't spread out the...
Messy Hormuz Reopening Fuels Shipowners' Profit Surge
The more "messy"/"inefficient" the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz is, the higher shipowners' profits are 🇮🇷🛢️🚢 @ed_fin on "Persian Gulf Traffic Jam" as tanker bull case: Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 1/2 https://t.co/yWohqK1at9
Brazil's Real Yields Match Hypothetical 12% US Rates
Wow I wasn't aware just how positive Brazilian real rates were. This would be like if U.S. interest rates at 12%... https://t.co/M9wTdfi05a
Execs Courting Substack Researchers Signals Shifting Media Outreach
Industry execs talking to Substack researchers? What's next, investors talking to podcasters? It's not 2013 anymore bro... https://t.co/in3xaJJerS
Shipowners Refuse Payments to Iran; Verify Sources
Interesting that the shipowners are not paying // not considering paying 🇮🇷 Important to follow people with good sourcing
She’s Actually Talking About Betting on NFP Data
Many people making fun of this but I think she just means betting on monthly BLS payroll data (NFP)
Iran Strikes Saudi Petrochemical Plant, U.S. Media Silent
Whoa I missed this: Saudi Arabian petrochemical plant struck by Iran at Jubail Industrial City Not reported in mainstream U.S. press but from sources generally accurate (AFP, by way of Times of Israel) https://t.co/5PXGglvqpg
Chinese Sulphur Prices Surge Daily, Threatening Food Costs
I repeat, Chinese sulphur prices are up literally every day (save two) since war began. 24/26 Odds of this happening (if this was a coin flip) are 1 in ~200,000 This will have consequences for fertilizer and therefore food prices. 1/3
Chinese Sulphur Prices Surge, 24 of 26 Days Up
Sulphur in China is up every day since this tweet. Chinese Sulphur has had two down days since the beginning of the war on February 28th (24/26 days positive). https://t.co/yyTujRfjYK
Greek Shipping Stocks Shine Despite Governance Reputation
I asked @ed_fin about the shipping industry's reputation for "governance issues" He went in-depth about Greek shipping and its "adventurous governance..." but there are two Greek shipping stocks he thinks are actually very good https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 https://t.co/KgHyDZaVTT
War in Iran Boosts Specific Ship Types' Profits
If you're a shipowner, here are the most profitable ships to own right now (because of War in Iran 🇮🇷), in terms of size, cargo, & location (+ the stocks that own them): Full interview w/ @ed_fin: Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 1/3 https://t.co/wUuMf9nqGR
Oman VLCCs Signal Imminent Hormuz Opening, Tanker Frenzy
With the first oil-laden very large crude carriers (VLCCs) coming out of Oman, @ed_fin explains why in the next few months, he expects the Strait of Hormuz to open and there to be a "feeding frenzy" for tankers "It's going to...
Shipping Squeeze: Tanker Rates Surge Amid Iran War
OUT NOW - @ed_fin on historic squeeze in shipping: -Why tanker rates soar 2-10x+ on Iran War🛢️ -Strait re-opening = "feeding frenzy"; if not "crisis"⚓️ -Routes/vessels/stocks best poised 🚢 Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 https://t.co/3ZLXMZR8p2
Tomorrow's Shipping Interview: Expect No Disappointment
My shipping interview is not out yet. It will not disappoint when it does Airing tomorrow ⚓️⚓️⚓️
SpaceX's IPO Valuation Skyrockets at Astronomical Multiples
SpaceX trying to go public at 80x forward sales, 500x forward earnings, and 125x forward EV/EBITDA multiple https://t.co/rk6SKuODJy
WTI Hits $108, Still Cheaper Than Brent
Oil prices surge, WTI May at $108 now. This is the "cheap" oil (Brent is more expensive)
Monthly Oil Draw Hits Quarter‑billion Barrels, Chart Dips
According to Gemini this figure is now below the y-axis from @Rory_Johnston's chart. 495 Million barrels so a quarter billion barrel draw in a month https://t.co/PEEyloJs9H
Goldman Predicts Retail Outflows in Direct Lending Through 2027
Good episode from Goldman on private credit. They forecast outflows from retail channel for direct lending into 2027 https://t.co/eP2DhDcZhr
BDC Discounts Explained: Loans Preferred Over Bulk Share
I wanted to know if public BDCs (business development companies) are trading at such a discount, how come they don't just buy their shares in bulk, instead of making new loans in private credit market? @LeylaKuni's answer was very revealing. https://t.co/7N1vWdkr6W...
Shipping Self‑insures Hormuz Risk via P&I Clubs
"Insurance companies won't write Hormuz policies" is complicated by the fact that a lot of underwriting for the ship is actually written by mutual associations (P&I Clubs) As companies they are "buying insurance" but as an industry the shipping sector is...
Rising Redemptions Highlight Risks and Opportunities in Private Credit
OUT NOW - @LeylaKuni on the turn in private credit: - redemptions from semi-liquid vehicles are rising - Business Development cos (BDCs) - where she is seeing greatest risks & opportunities Apple https://t.co/Bo97jddHak Spotify https://t.co/LktgvzsRaN https://t.co/BISkrZhVO0
Iran's FM Warns 60/40 Portfolio Hits 2022 Low
Iranian Foreign Minister dooming on how the 60/40 portfolio has performed worst since 2022 https://t.co/6DF87cVo4R
Markets Misjudge Risks: War Threats Underestimated, Private Credit Overrated
In my view, markets are underestimating systemic risks of Middle East War and overestimating systemics risks of private credit
Iran War Sparks Global Stagflation, EM Rate Hike Pressure
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
Today's Middle East Turmoil Echoes 1990 Gulf War Recession
Why the current set-up reminds @LizAnnSonders of 1990 (Gulf War + recession): - conflict in Middle East & spike in oil prices - economic & market dislocations - concerns about credit linked to Private Equity Apple🔊https://t.co/2dDJ3eD1p7 Spotify📽️https://t.co/gSpDwqSJC9 https://t.co/hNb5bSJvUv
Profitable Stocks Outperform Unprofitable Ones, Says Sonders
This year, unprofitable stocks are being "handily" outperformed by profitable stocks (a reversal of 2025). "In this environment, profitability is a focus for us." Full interview with @LizAnnSonders: Apple🔊https://t.co/2dDJ3eD1p7 Spotify📽️https://t.co/gSpDwqSJC9 https://t.co/NnPYzIrC1l
Israel Demands Iran Dismantle Nukes for Ceasefire
Citing a "Western Source" Israel's Channel 12 reports the 15 conditions for a potential monthlong ceasefire with Iran: 1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities. 2. Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons. 3. There will be no uranium enrichment on...
World Still Faces 6M‑Barrel Daily Oil Shortfall
Even after assuming the release of global oil stockpiles (which can not be sustained), the world is still short over 6 million barrels of oil per day, @Rory_Johnston finds https://t.co/pZBkSir3aa
Global Scramble for Nitrogen Fertilizer Amid Severe Shortage
There's a scramble to look for more fertilizer production & stockpiles. When it comes to Nitrogen fertilizer, "it simply does not exist." - @JLinvilleFert Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/cSMed2AreF