Sulphur Prices Surge 40% Amid Existing Deficit
Sulphur prices now up 40% since before the Iran War Unlike oil, the sulphur market was already in severe deficit https://t.co/gMiE3tcho5
Middle Eastern LNG Delayed to June, Oil Hoarding Risks Rise
Middle Eastern liquified natural gas (LNG) might not come to Europe till June, and why speculative hoarding of oil is a serious concern going forward, per top shipping/energy hedge fund in shipping and energy trading A must watch
Excited Interview Rush: Listen on Apple & Spotify
Listener thinks we sped up the interview, little does he know @Rory_Johnston & I were just excited... 🛢️🛢️🛢️ Apple🔊https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf https://t.co/GpUFEboeMr
Urea Shortage Threatens 87% of U.S. Corn Output
To give a scale of the sense of fertilizer disruption: The 13.5 Million tons of Urea behind Strait of Hormuz is 1/4th of global exports. This is the equivalent of 87% of U.S. corn production. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc https://t.co/a0azQFg63V
Hormuz Closure Cuts 30% Fertilizer Supply, Spurs Food Prices
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
Closed Hormuz Could Push Brent Above $220 per Barrel
In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, "that means $250-$300 price of oil (Brent)" argues @Rory_Johnston. Because a giant price shock is needed to destroy 15 million barrels per day of demand $220+ "almost guaranteed." https://t.co/fnf6ENgf0N https://t.co/yakBRYsHgc
Historic Energy Shock Threatens AI-Driven Economic Boom
The largest energy supply shock in history just hit as the entire global economy had been riding high on the most energy intensive tech ever (AI), @Rory_Johnston argues. "I hope I'm wrong." Apple🔊https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf https://t.co/OJPNLB003V
Even Optimistic Oil Analysts Admit They're Terrified
It's not just the oil alarmists who are scared. Even the optimistic oil analysts, who make fun of the alarmists, are all "terrified..." 🛢️🛢️🛢️ "That's why I think Trump has to end it" - @Rory_Johnston Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf https://t.co/HdNNaefrAk
Sulfur Squeeze Looms, Cavvy Energy Highly Exposed
This is from like two hours of my work as an amateur but in my opinion the sulfur squeeze could be immense and Cavvy Energy has the most exposure to sulfur prices
Middle East Oil On
In just two weeks, Middle East Oil on Water has collapsed by 175 Million Barrels. "Truly staggering" - @Rory_Johnston (it's his chart). "It’s impossible to overstate the magnitude of this dislocation." 1/3 https://t.co/iYwEtzNH9E
Middle East Oil Shut‑in Now Three Times Feared
The numbers are clear: Middle East oil crisis is already 3x WORSE than the UNREALIZED FEAR in 2022 @Rory_Johnston explains: in April 2022 fear was 3 Million Barrel per day (mb/d) shut in for Russian Crude (DIDN'T HAPPEN). In 2026...
Closed Hormuz Threatens $220 Oil, Near Recession
OUT NOW - how @Rory_Johnston sees it: Unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, $220 oil and a recession is "almost guaranteed." $300+ oil & Global Depression are possible. Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf 1/3 https://t.co/gvV2pR4qXu
U.S. Administration Confirms No Oil Export Restrictions Planned
Important - U.S. admin says it has no plan to enact an oil export restriction
Oil Shock Repricing Begins; Inflation or Slow Growth Hurts Stocks
OUT NOW - how @BobEUnlimited sees it: - the repricing of the oil shock into markets is "just getting started" - higher inflation or lower growth, BOTH scenarios are bad for stocks Apple https://t.co/tA37rAtLtM Spotify https://t.co/wRcaaAtWld YouTube https://t.co/RDM5IJfiVx https://t.co/0Zt9BALTn7
Middle East Crude Exports Plunge 25‑67%
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
Powell Skips Service‑sector Disinflation Comment From January
Powell just OMITTED this line about "disinflation in the service sector" (vs January press conference) https://t.co/knGJ2D4YW2
SquirrelMacro Urges Trimming Stocks Amid Weak IPOs, Credit Cracks
OUT NOW - @SquirrelMacro loves owning stocks but keeps seeing reasons to lighten his bag, from: - mega IPO issuance of money-losing companies - cracks in software & private credit - U.S. consumer weakening Apple https://t.co/qZiDfSFK94 Spotify https://t.co/zqeGlNjrbb https://t.co/53hmkQuqqX
Oil Rises While Economy and Stocks Falter
Yet another piece of news that is bullish crude (and bearish economy and stock market)
130M Barrels = 6.5 Days Disruption; Oil Still Finds Market
130 Million barrels is 6.5 days of most extreme measure of current supply disruption so I agree 1.5 days global is not the most revealing framing But the oil would have found a home anyway...
Prediction Markets See Two‑thirds Chance US Troops Deployed by Year‑end
Prediction markets are pricing in 2/3rds chance that U.S. boots are on the ground by the end of the year https://t.co/2kcrfgNU6v
War Risks Trigger Oil, Food Shocks and Stagflation
If this war lasts much longer, it's not just an oil shock that could destabilize the economy. Food too. "We are facing a risk of stagflation" - @JosephEStiglitz Apple🔊https://t.co/7Ewtn8N1AT Spotify📽️https://t.co/3AKmC9yw2d YouTube📽️https://t.co/yR3j6zbCrB https://t.co/hYJLSPL2uF
Wolf: Oil Price Nightmare Unlikely; Iran Regime Change Implausible
OUT NOW - @martinwolf_ on "nightmare scenario" for oil prices and why the democratic regime change in Iran is "extremely implausible" 🇮🇷 Apple🔊https://t.co/YIUZqmamAH Spotify📽️https://t.co/TIAT3VANJk YouTube📽️https://t.co/unzLSGazzM https://t.co/MQl4DAj8d0
Stiglitz Warns War‑driven Price Spikes and AI Bubble
OUT NOW - how @JosephEStiglitz sees it: - higher oil & food prices and "Economic Chaos" are serious risks of U.S.-Iran War - "significant probability" AI is in a bubble Apple https://t.co/7Ewtn8N1AT Spotify https://t.co/3AKmC9yw2d YouTube https://t.co/yR3j6zbCrB 1/3 https://t.co/7fTyMMYBkK
Top Economist Warns Imminent Oil Shock and Stagflation
Interview coming out very soon with legendary economist (by some objective measures he is #1 economist of all time) He has severe concerns about an oil shock & stagflation
Iran Says Current Oil Disruption 4‑20× Worse than Past Crises
Foreign Minister of Iran claiming current oil disruption is 4-20x more severe than previous oil crises https://t.co/33VOGTSEeb
Oil and LNG Traffic Through Hormuz Appears Minimal
Doesn't seem like there's a lot of Oil/LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz at all https://t.co/5QrGSihDEA
2026 Risk Assets Outlook: Bonds, China Stocks Shine
OUT NOW - Michael Howell @crossbordercap on: - why he expects 2026 to be bad for risk assets - why he's bullish bonds & Chinese stocks - Gold, Bitcoin, & yield curve, and "Turbulence" phase of Liquidity cycle Apple🔊https://t.co/7bjoJLeYdJ Spotify📽️https://t.co/plpNPVQicu https://t.co/1mD9VJPm5e
Word Choice Reveals Bias: “Die” Vs “Killed”
What’s with this framing? Lebanese people “die” but Israelis are “killed” — what’s the deal with the selective word choice here?
Greek Gunslinger Halts 94% of Petrochemical Traffic
One Greek Gunslinger does not make a global petrochemical supply chain... 94% of traffic is shut
Oil Price Spikes $40 in a Week; Panic Insufficient
People aren’t freaking out enough The situation is not under control Price of oil up 40 bucks in a week
Prometheus Macro Impresses; Aahan Delivers Real Quant Success
This is extremely impressive. Congrats to @prometheusmacro and the clients who are using its models If you are looking for Quant Macro That Actually Works, Aahan is your guy
EXPD Faces Biggest Sell‑Off Since 1998 Crisis
Worst sell-off in this logistics/tech company since 1998 (LTCM & Russian Debt Crisis) $EXPD Bigger than Tariffs, March 2020, 2008. AI Fears https://t.co/pSckCN9oYm
Gold Lacks Earnings; Overvalued Compared to Commodities
I managed the largest gold fund in USA. Here's the truth: Stocks have "babies" (earnings). Gold has NO babies. 🍼 Gold's at historic extreme vs. oil/soybeans. You're crazy if you think gold's gonna outperform inflation - @BergMilton https://t.co/bNqmCOVYCt https://t.co/7NJ9NoBZCx
Refineries Drowning in Silver Scrap, Bearish Outlook
Why @BergMilton is bearish silver: refineries are OVERWHELMED with silver scrap, EVEN MORE than in 2011 (prior speculative peak). Well sourced from "largest smelter in New York" Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi https://t.co/ng04tObLMG
Climax Top Signals Bear Market for Precious Metals
OUT NOW - @BergMilton on: - clear sign of "climax top" in gold & silver - why he expects a precious metals bear market - S&P 500, Bitcoin, Software + Korean stocks & more Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi 1/3 https://t.co/U3F0Pxojhy
AI Threatens S&P's Analytics, Not Its Core Ratings
About 65% of $SPGI's (down >20% over past month) pre-tax earnings come from ratings & indices. The potential challenge that AI poses to S&P's analytics/consulting/intel business is something I get. But I don't understand AI's bear case for ratings & indices,...