IEA Ignores Demand Solutions, Relies Solely on Supply
Final comment on IEA release: If the shortfall is such that it requires a 400 million barrels release, surely demand measures should had been approved too: fuel switching (oil-to-coal, gas-to-coal); societal behaviour (lower highway speed limits, lower AC/heating use), and fuel pollution waivers. Yet, all the above measures are politically incorrect today, either for the right or the left. The IEA nations are responding with only half their play book (the supply side, ignoring the demand side).
Trump Confirms US Join IEA Oil Release, Plans SPR Refill
President Trump has formally confirmed the US is participating in the IEA emergency oil stock release. “We’ll do that and then we’ll fill it up,” Trump said referring to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “Right now, we’ll reduce it a little...
Trump Doubts Iranian Mines, Urges Tankers Through Hormuz
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...
Japan's 80 Million‑Barrel Release Beats IEA's Forecast
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
Reserve Composition Outweighs Sheer Size, IEA Shows
More on the IEA reserves: US has only crude Japan has a mix of crude and products Europe has mostly products The mix of the release is as important as the size of the release
Countries Urge China to Curb Oil Reserve Purchases
Also, as the IEA releases, member countries are reaching out to China to make sure it doesn't use the opportunity to buy more barrels for its own reserve (as it did in 2022). (...the IEA-Chinese coordinate was last done in 2011...
IEA Release: Watch Daily Flow, Not Total Barrels
When the IEA release is announced, my focus won't be on the headline number (say 300-400m barrels). Ignore that number. The key is the flow, in BARRELS PER DAY, the IEA promises FOR THE FIRST 20-30 DAYS of the stockdraw, and...
G7/G20 Vows to Curb Iran Oil Leverage
Inside the G7 (and the G20) most countries are absolutely livid with the Trump administration's attack on Iran, but don't mistake their indignation with a desire to let Iran take the global economy hostage via oil. G7/G20/OECD nations will respond...
G7 Leaders Convene Video Call on Gulf War Energy Crisis
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...
UAE's Defense Spending Outpaces Iran's Offense Tenfold
“… Right now it looks like the Gulf - especially the UAE - is spending something like $28 in defense for every $1 Iran spends on offense […] that's not a long-term equation anyone wants to …”
Pakistan Deploys Navy to Guard Oil Lifelines Amid Saudi Ties
Pakistan says it has launched a naval operation to protect its “energy lifelines.” In some ways expected: oil importing nations in Asia may step in protecting their own tankers. (Importantly, Pakistan has a defence treaty with Saudi Arabia, and buys...
Supply Strength Keeps Oil Prices Low, Diminishing Hedge Demand
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
How IEA Emergency Oil Releases Actually Work
It's a while since the last IEA emergency oil release, so I put together a briefing note on how it works in practice as it follows a strict technical and diplomatic protocol. The below is a (simplified) guide to follow...
Tehran Leverages Its War‑Endurance as Strategic Advantage
"... Tehran intends to fully exploit what it sees as one of its key advantages: its capacity to endure and absorb the costs of war..."
Europe’s Nuclear Cut Deemed Strategic Mistake, Admits Politician
Forward the video to 1.40: “… While in 1990, one third of Europe's electricity came from nuclear, today it's only close to 15%. This reduction in the share of nuclear was a choice. And in hindsight, it was a strategic mistake…” Good to...
Bypasses and SPR only Buy Time; only Hormuz Reopening Solves
Oil bypass pipelines buy time, but don't solve the problem. SPR/IEA release would buy more time, but doesn't solve either. Ultimately, only one thing solves the problem: re-open the Strait of Hormuz. But rather than hitting the wall this...
Middle East Strikes and Oil Surge Amplify Global Risks
As strikes shake the Middle East and oil prices soar, what are the global ramifications of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran? 🎥 Tune in LIVE as @TimOBrien discusses with @JavierBlas and @MarcChampion1 Tuesday, March 10 @ 8:30 am EDT...
Export Routes Matter More than Production Amid US‑Iran War
As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former...
East-West Pipeline: Aramco's Final Buffer Against Hormuz
The comments from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on the East-West pipeline, the last (and only partial) line of defence of the oil market against the Strait of Hormuz disruption (other than a SPR release) For background, my @Opinion column from...
Aramco Nears Full East-West Pipeline Capacity, Boosting Red Sea Exports
Saudi Aramco says it expect to reach full capacity at its East-West pipeline to the Red Seat in next couple of days as oil tankers arrive to load. That’s ~7m b/d (or ~6m b/d above pre-war levels already exported via...
Aramco Launches $3B Buyback, Re‑nationalising After IPO
Having IPO-ed only 6½ years and with a tiny free float, Saudi Aramco announces what effectively is a partial re-nationalisation with a share buyback of up to $3 billion over the next 18 months. That’s going to buy-back ~10% of...
G7 Energy Ministers to Discuss Oil, LNG Amid SPR Debate
G7 energy ministers are scheduled to hold a video call (involving the IEA too) today to discuss the oil and LNG markets. Yesterday, G7 finance ministers flagged a potential use of the oil SPR. Japan and several other north East...
Trump Hints at Lifting Sanctions Until Hormuz Clears
Unclear whether President Trump referred to the already announced easing of Russian oil sanctions for India, or something new. In any case, this is what he said: "We have sanctions on some countries. We're going to take those sanctions off till...
Iran Uses Partial Pipeline Bypass to Pressure Trump Economically
COLUMN: Iran’s strategy is by now clear: Impose an intolerable economic cost on President Trump. One of the last lines of defence is a couple of oil pipelines offerign a partial (**emphasis on partial**) bypass of the Strait of Hormuz. Link: https://t.co/tXkHzUOiYy...
IEA Emergency Oil Releases Have Surged, 2022 Tops History
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)
G7 Ministers Call Emergency Meeting, Consider Oil Reserve Release
G7 finance ministers to hold emergency conference call at 12.30pm London time to discuss the impact of the US- -Iran war, Paris said in a statement. According to the Financial Times, several G7 nations favour a release of their Strategic Petroleum...
Trump Says $100 Oil Is Temporary, Will Fall Post‑Iran Threat
Trump on oil prices above $100 a barrel: “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a small price to pay.” https://t.co/jdsCvB0BtP
Iran Appoints Khamenei's Son, IRGC‑linked, as Successor
Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the country’s slain supreme leader, as his father’s successor. He is known for having close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Energy Chief Says Oil Plentiful; Market Fear Persists
US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright: “… The oil is there […] You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace. But the world is not short of oil today or natural gas…” (Not sure this verbal massaging is...
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil to China Amid Conflict
PHOTO OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil. Nine days into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. Tehran has sent some of them across the Strait of Hormuz into the high seas wihthout any...
Gulf Nations Cut Output to Avoid Irreversible Shutdown
On the oil production shut in: By curbing oil output early, Persian Gulf nations are trying to lengthen the time before they reach full storage. Their plan is to try to keep output low but running — avoiding full shutdowns. The former...
US Cancels Strait of Hormuz Safety Alerts Amid War
The US Maritime Administration (@DOTMARAD) put out at the begining of the war 2 "alerts" advising vessles to "keep clear" of the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, it cancelled the alerts (one alert was due to expire automatically, but the other was...
IEA Chief Urges EU to Accelerate Clean Energy Transition
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
EU Carbon Prices Slip 20% Amid Reform Push
CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of European CO2 allowances has fallen ~20% in recent days after several key countries asked Brussels for a reform. Italy has gone as far as asking the Emissions Trading Syste to be suspended. CO2...
IEA Allegedly Drops Climate Priority Under US Pressure
Renewable energy think tank Ember says that, under American pressure, the IEA appears to have "drop[ped] climate change as one of its priorities." https://t.co/JxXMP3djla
Net‑Zero Path Turns Steeper, Emissions Curve Cliffs
CHART OF THE DAY: Global energy-related CO2 emissions, with historical path, plus different scenarios: current policies, stated policies and net-zero by 2050. The later curve is getting more cliff-like by the day. My @Opinion column on net zero is here:...
Net‑Zero 2050 Dead, Fossil Fuels Essential, Solar Booms
COLUMN: Net zero by 2050 is effectively dead: Oil, natural gas and coal will remain crucial for meeting the world's energy needs. But that doesn't mean the end of renewable energy. Solar, in particular, is thriving, and will continue to...
IEA Shifts Priorities to Security, Clean Energy, Affordability
IEA executive director Fatih Birol proposes focusing the agency's work in three areas during the next few years: 1) energy security -- "first and foremost" mission 2) new energy uptake (wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear) 3) afordability of energy "IEA 3.0" may well be...
US Energy Chief Declares Net‑Zero 2050 Impossible
Net-zero by 2050 has “zero point zero chance of happening,” says US Energy Secretary Chris Wright ahead of the biennial IEA ministerial meeting in Paris. (This ministerial meeting will mark a turning point in global energy policy making across industrialised...
IEA Paris Meeting Tests Net‑Zero Shift Against US Oil Priorities
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
US‑Iran Oil Talks Conclude Second Round, Third Round Pending
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
Iran and Russia Clash over China Oil Supply Rivalry
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...
Bears Dominate Oil Market Narrative After Energy Week
COLUMN: In the oil market, the bears control the narrative — at least for now. (My summary after last week's International Energy Week, the oil trading industry's annual jamboree in London) @Opinion https://t.co/Y3OHEhD4k5
Henry Hub Drops Below $3 on Warm Weather, Shale Supply
GAS MARKET: After a cold blast triggered sild price moves, US gas benchmark Henry Hub has fallen back below $3 per mBtu. Warmer temperatures and the irresistible supply force of the US shale revolution behind the pullback.
Cuba's Power Generation Falls Below Half Demand.
ENERGY CRISIS IN CUBA: Granma, the mouthpiece of the Cuban regime, says that electricity generation in the island is covering less than half the expected demand. The island is suffering the largest energy shortages since the collapse of the Soviet...
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Demand Plummets as Gas Powers Electricity
CHART OF THE DAY: Among the world's top oil consumers, a curious trend. The 2nd largest consumption drop last year ocurred in Saudi Arabia, where demand fell ~60,000 b/d (only South Korea saw a larger drop). The reason? Gas is...
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
Venezuela's Oil Output Projected Near 1M B/D by 2026
How much oil would Venezuela produce by Dec 2026? (Current output has rebounded to just under 1m b/d)
US Energy Secretary Visits Venezuela's Orinoco Oil Belt
Well, I admit that if you have asked me three months ago, certainly I didn't have the following on my 2026 bingo card: "... US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright tours the Orinoco oil belt in Venezuela with the US-installed Venezuelan...
Trump Urges Netanyahu to Pursue Iran Nuclear Deal
OIL MARKET: President Trump says he told Israeli Primer Minister Netanyahu that his preference is to cut a deal with Iran. “I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a deal can be consummated.” https://t.co/VhkfL7QBHF