UAE Calls for UN Chapter 7 Action on Hormuz Navigation
In a letter to the UN Security Council, UAE is invoking Chapter 7 of the UN charter (commonly referred as 'use of force') seeking “immediate action” in order to “ensure the safe and secure navigation and navigational rights and freedoms in and around the Strait of Hormuz.”
Physical Brent Commands $20 Premium over June Futures
When looking at the oil market: Brent **June** futures (settled at the end of April): That's trading at ~$102 a barrel. But physical Brent market for prompt delivery: That's trading at ~$125 a barrel. There's a big difference depending on when a refinery needs...
Three Tankers Load Simultaneously at Saudi Al Muajjiz Terminal
PHOTO OF THE DAY: Very rare sighthing — three large oil tankers loading simultanouesly at the Al Muajjiz terminal (Yanbu south) in the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia (one of the end points of the East-West pipeline). 🛰️📷@CopernicusEU Sentinel-2...
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports, Undermining Sanctions
After a 7-year hiatus, India is about to import its first Iranian oil. At ~$100 a barrel. Quite the achievement in Washington for the long-term strenght of the economic and financial sanctions regime.
BP Appoints Meg O'Neill, Fourth CEO in Six Years
In non-Iran news, BP new boss Meg O'Neill started today on her job. She's the fourth CEO in six years running the British oil major. O'Neill will face shareholders first at the company's AGM, secheduled for April 23, and potentially again...
US‑Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, but Europe’s Inflation Stays Modest
CHARTS OF THE DAY: What's the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war for Europe (and thus the ECB and BoE)? Sure, the price of oil and refined products has risen. But paralells between the curent shock and the 2022 energy...
Trump Signals US Withdrawal From Strait of Hormuz
Increasingly it does sound like US President Donald Trump will leave the Strait of Hormuz to others to sort out. "... The U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore ..." https://t.co/8wFtBLuoCa
Pakistan, China Foreign Ministers Meet Amid US‑Iran Deal Rumors
The Pakistani and Chinese foreign affairs ministers have met today in Beijing, according to Chinese state media. The meeting comes as **rumours** abound that Beijing could play a role as "guarantor" of any US-Iran deal.
European Gas Prices Dip, Still 75% Above Pre‑War
The European benchmark natural gas price (TTF) is today **lower** than four weeks ago. Yup: Lower. (And yes, TTF prices are still up >75% from pre-war levels, but around the same level as they were in Jan-Feb 2025)
US Gas Prices Top $4 Gallon, First Since 2022
CHART OF THE DAY: The US gasoline national average retail price has risen above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, per the @AAA_Travel. It's the kind of price level that typically has triggered political alarms inside the...
Managed Money's Oil Options Net Long 50× Average
Goldman Sachs on the oil options market: “… The rally has spread beyond the spot crude market, with net long options managed money positioning 50 times higher than its 10-year average as investors bought options with strikes as high as $450...
Iran Attacks Kuwaiti Oil Tanker in Dubai Port
Iran has hit a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port, damaging the hull and starting a fire on board, state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said https://t.co/z0pPgEwdwx
WTI Hits $100+ for First Time Since 2022
For the first time since the war started, WTI oil has settled above the $100-a-barrel threshold. It’s the first triple-digit settlement since 2022, when it closed above that level for >80 trading days. To match that, WTI would need to remain >$100...
Brent May Futures Expire, June Takes Over at $108
A reminder that the Brent May futures contract, currently trading ~$115 a barrel, expires tomorrow. From Wednesday, the front-month futures would be the Brent June contract, currently trading at ~$108 a barrel. Liquidity has already moved from May to...
Trump Threatens to Destroy Iran's Oil and Water Infrastructure
I suppose that today wasn't an oil jawboning day. Instead, US President Trump just threatened Tehran with blowing up not just all its power stations, but also its oil wells, Kharg Island, and "possibly" all desalination water plants (Note: the...
Italy May Postpone Coal Plant Shutdowns Until 2038
Italy mulls delaying the closure of all its coal-fired power stations until 2038 (~15 years later than previously expected) https://t.co/qK3WeCnJoP
War‑Driven Oil Shortage Forces Demand Destruction
COLUMN: Five weeks into the Third Gulf War, the math of oil-barrel counting is intractable: The world is short of the black stuff. Enter demand destruction. @Opinion https://t.co/Y2DPUcHM8s
US Gas Prices Stay Low, Softening Energy Shock Impact
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Oil Shipments Surge Across Gulf Despite US‑Iran War
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: Oil loadings across the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, and Red Sea during the US-Iran war. From top left clockwise: Fujairah single point mooring (March 28); Kharg island (March 27); Yanbu (March 24); and Al Muajjiz (March...
Pakistan Hosts Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian Ministers to Mediate US‑Iran Tensions
The foreign affairs ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are gathering in Islamabad today for urgent talks as they try to mediate between the US and Iran.
Hormuz Oil Flow Down 40%, Now Mostly Crude
Pre-war Strait of Hormuz flow (crude + products): ~20m b/d. My updated flow assumptions: Iran: ~1.5m b/d (SoH) UAE: ~1.0m b/d (Fujairah above pre-war) KSA: ~5.0m b/d (Yanbu above pre-war) Plus ~1.0m b/d (Non-Iranian SoH tankers) Plus >2.0m...
Houthis Threaten Bab Al-Mandeb, Risking Saudi Pipeline Bypass
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Thailand Secures Safe Strait of Hormuz Passage for Tankers
Thailand has reached a deal with Iran to allow Thai tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said...
Supply Disruptions Reshape Oil, Gas Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions
PODCAST: What’s next for oil, natural gas and the U.S.-Iran war? A great pleasure to join a special edition of the #ColumbiaEnergyExchange podcast with host @JasonBordoff to discuss how supply disruptions are reverberating across the industry. 🎧Listen now: https://t.co/Nfa3nQ6UWm
U.S. Gas Prices Plunge: Permian Negative
While the world panics about the loss of Qatari LNG, your reminder that nat gas prices in the Permian (Waha hub) had been negative for 35 consecutive trading days — and counting. And that Henry Hub is at ~$3 per...
Treasury Claims Ample Oil, IEA Taps Strategic Reserves
“The oil market is well-supplied” — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (… that’s quite a statement after the International Energy Agency had to make the largest ever use of his member’s strategic petroleum reserves…)
Europe May Abandon 2050 Net‑zero, Says German Minister
A few weeks ago, I published an @Opinion column arguing that net-zero by 2050 was, effectively, dead. At @CERAWeek in Houston this week, Germany's minister for energy and economy said Europe should allow itself to miss its mid-century net-zero goal....
Iran Vows Continued Resistance, Rejects Negotiations, Claims Security Shield
"At present, our policy is the continuation of resistance", Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state TV. “We do not intend to negotiate.” “In this war, we showed the world that no one can provoke the Islamic Republic, and in fact...
Oman/Dubai Crude Plunges $45, Defying Brent Rally
CHART OF THE DAY: The idea was that Brent/WTI was going to catch up higher towards where Oman/Dubai crude was trading (>$150 a barrel) Instead, we are witnessing Oman/Dubai crude plunging >$45 a barrel in a single day to ~$110 a...
Iran Vows to End War on Its Own Terms
Iran state-owned TV says that Tehran will end the war at a time of its own choosing. Islamic Republic won’t allow Trump to dictate end of conflict, it says
White House Wins Jawboning, yet Oil Prices Defy Expectations
The White House is (truly) winning the oil jawboning battle against Tehran — still to be seen if Trump would win the physical oil market war. But to see Brent trading at sub-$100 a barrel (and WTI below $90) after...
Germany Prioritizes Energy Affordability and Security
German Energy Minister Katherina Reiche: “Energy affordability and security have to come to the front.” #CERAWeek
Brent Crude Slides Below $100, Still Above Pre‑crisis Levels
CHART OF THE DAY: Brent crude oil has settled today below $100 a barrel (at $99.94 a barrel). As the chart shows, still way higher than pre-crisis levels, but also well below the peak reached during the early days of...
Iran Discovers Strait of Hormuz Leverage Is Unreliable
As with its nuclear program, Iran can not unlearnt new knowledge. And Tehran has learnt lots in the last 4 weeks. Iran assumed the Strait of Hormuz gave it a lever. But its effectiveness was unproven, and it didn’t know...
Anticipating Launch of TAHCO Oil Control Venture
I’m looking forward to the official launch of the “Trump Ayatollah Hormuz Control for Oil” joint-venture. Otherwise known as as the TAHCO.
Sultan Al Jaber’s CERAWeek Speech Highlights Energy Transition
Worth to read the speech that Sultan al Jaber, the CEO of UAE-state owned oil giant ADNOC, just delivered at CERAWeek (by video conference for obvious reasons). https://t.co/ATookvzJEA
Physical Oil Scarcity Outpaces Futures Pricing, Says Chevron CEO
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the physical oil market is tighter than the financial oil market is reflecting, particularly for refined products. The scarcity, particularly in Asia, is “not fully priced in the oil futures curve,” he says. #CERAWeek
U.S. Oil Production Likely Plateaued, Growth Hinges on Prices
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says that U.S. oil production probably reached a “plateau” over the last 6 months or so — too early to say whether growth would re-start as it would depend whether current prices stay or not.
US SPR Release Targets Up to 3 Million Barrels Daily
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US flow rate from the SPR exchange would amount to be 1.0-1.5m b/d and says the total IEA release would come close to 3m b/d. (Those are the first flow rates estimates publicly discussed...
Thailand Revives Mothballed Coal Plants, Curbing LNG Prices
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. https://t.co/qqyd5NrZQ8
Capturing Kharg Island Won’t Halt Iran’s Oil Flow
KHARG ISLAND — a thread: Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iran’s entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough. 🧵1/10 @Opinion FREE-TO-READ: https://t.co/ZOYtq3KESE https://t.co/xtLBqPShB6
Satellite Shows Iran Exporting Oil with US Backing
Iran’s Kharg Island as seen **today** by the @CopernicusEU Sentinel-2 satellite. Iran is loading multiple tankers, exporting oil and making $$$ — now, with the help of the White House. The idea that Trump admin is using Iranian oil barrels...
Iran Vows to Strike Regional Energy Infrastructure After Trump Ultimatum
Iran responds to Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum: “… the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed…”
Iran Rakes $2.5B From Oil Amid War
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
US Ultimatum on Hormuz Contradicts Its Own Disuse
From almost done, followed by close to winding down -- to a 48-hours ultimatum to Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz that the US doesn't use, and in any case, it would be very easy to re-open even by...
Iran's Pre‑War Oil Output Peaks, Boosting Condensates for Asia
CHART OF THE DAY: Despite sanctions, ahead of the war, Iran's total oil production had hit a 46-year high. Although most of the attention is on crude, Iran has focused in expanding its output of condensates and natural gas liquids —...
Treasury's “Stranded” Claim Exaggerated; Most Iranian Oil Headed to China
US Treasury says there are 140 million barrels of Iranian oil "stranded" on the water. That's misleading -- if not false. There're about 100 million barrels of Iranian oil on their way to China, and probably another 40 million on...
US Loans 45M Barrels, Far Below 86M Offer
US loans ~45 millions barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — significantly fewer barrels than the 86 million the government offered as part of the SPR “exchange” first tranche.
Georgia Launches First U.S. Fuel Tax Holiday Amid Price Surge
Georgia becomes the first U.S. state to declare a fuel tax holiday as gasoline and diesel prices surge in the back of the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran. Georgia will waive for 60 days a 33 ¢ per gallon tax on...