Japan's Oil Outlook Improves, but SPR Usage Persists
Japan updates on its oil situation (And it looks better that I had expected; but note that the country is signalling continues use of its SPR)
Mexico's Climate‑scientist President Backs Controversial Shale Gas
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist by training, makes a policy U-turn, now backing the development of shale gas deposits in her country (which means fracking, even if she avoided using that word — a taboo in Mexico —...
ASAP Oil Prices Surge to Record Highs
Very good short note from my colleague @alexlongley1 about why the price of what he rightly calls "ASAP" oil barrels is going throughout the roof https://t.co/6dpWmdpJlG
Lebanon Holds Ceasefire Fate, Tehran Exploits Excuse
Lebanon will make or break the ceasefire. (But also it is a convenient excuse for Tehran)
UAE Oil Chief Calls Hormuz Closure “Control, Not Passage”
UAE senior oil official Sultan Al Jaber denounces the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. “Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” “Conditional passage is not passage. It is control by another name,” he says. https://t.co/TFczKBO4kk
Ceasefire Holds, Yet Hormuz Shipping Remains Stalled
The good news: attacks have come down markedly (ex Lebanon), and the fragile ceasefire seems to be holding. The bad news: so far, almost no movement of ships in-and-out of the Strait of Hormuz. Several Chinese oil tankers have pre-positioned to...
US Vice President Vance Leads First US‑Iran Talks in Islamabad
The first round of US-Iran talks will take place Saturday in Islamabad, with the US negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance, the White House said.
Beef Prices Hit Record High, Adding to Inflation
President Trump's other inflation headache: beef. While everyone is rightly focused on gasoline and oil amid US-Iran war, the meat market isn't giving a respite. Live cattle wholesale prices in Chicago have reached a new all-time high, surpassing last October's peak....
Fertilizer Price Surge Hits Government Budgets, Not Food Security
The spike in fertiliser costs is not a food security problem in many nations (and particularly, in developing Asian countries). Instead, it's a fiscal shock problem for the governments subsidizing their consumption.
Israeli Lebanon Attacks Threaten Ceasefire, Stall US‑Iran Talks
So far, proving rather difficult for the White House. Israeli attacks on Lebanon may derail the whole ceasefire process even before any US-Iran direct talks can start.
Hormuz Loses Relevance as Rivals Rush Pipeline Bypasses
COLUMN: No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change. But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more...
2026 Energy Shock Peaks Far Below Past Records
The scorecard of the (so far) 2026 energy shock: (Peak price set during US-Iran war Feb 28-Apr 7 vs all-time high; in nominal terms) ⛽️ Brent oil: ~19% below 2008 peak 🔥 TTF nat gas: ~79% below 2022 peak 🔌 German power: ~89% below...
US Treasury Faces Deadline on Russian, Iranian Oil Waivers
The US has to answer some questions: Does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Russian oil sales? (the general license expires on Sunday, Apr 11) And more politically charged, does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Iranian oil sales?...
IMO Seeks Mechanism to Secure Hormuz Ship Transit
IMO sec-gen: "I am already working with the relevant parties to implement an **appropriate mechanism** to ensure the safe transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The priority now is to ensure an evacuation that guarantees the safety of...
Energy Prices Plunge Despite Uncertain Hormuz Reopening
Brent crude oil: -15% TTF nat gas: -18% German power: -5% (and below pre-war) Asian coal: -1% (And yes, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to actually reopen, and we don’t know for sure what the ceasefire means in practical terms for SoH energy...
Iran's Oil Pressure Backfires, Trump Gains From Ceasefire
Iran’s strategy all along has been to impose an unbearable economic cost on the US if Trump continued the war via oil and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, oil is down ~20% well below $100 a barrel. From...
General Caine Warns Iran Could Block Vital Hormuz Strait
MUST READ: “General Caine […] also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. Mr. Trump had dismissed that possibility on the assumption that the regime would capitulate before it came...
Build Global Energy Corridors to Bypass Hormuz, Says Hochstein
".... The only long-term solution is new infrastructure—making a massive, internationally coordinated investment in energy corridors that bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely... " -- @amoshochstein https://t.co/hvu4ACTwok
Futures
The oil futures market continues to price a big TACO. Physical oil quotes are sky high, but futures imply a significant improvement in supply in a few weeks. If the market moves to priced a much longer disruption — and see below...
EIA Predicts Prolonged Persian Gulf Crude Production Disruption
The US Energy Information Administration (@EIAgov) is now forecasting a rather long disruption to crude oil production in the Persian Gulf. (Note this is wellhead production rather than flows via Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't appear to include natural gas liquids,...
China’s Coal‑Based Urea Shields It From Fertiliser Price Spikes
China produces ~80% of its urea from coal rather than (as most other nations do) natural gas. The method is insulating Beijing from rising nitrogen fertiliser prices. I wrote ⤵️ this @Opinion column about the Chinese coal-to-chemicals industry last June. https://t.co/TQg6HHD3J8
War‑Driven Food Prices Shift Slightly, Crisis Not Imminent
Key food commodity prices since US-Iran war started: 🍚 Rice: ⬇️ -6.3% 🌾 Wheat: ⬇️ -0.5% 🥫 Soybean: ⬆️ +0.6% 🌽 Corn: ...
Iran Set
Iran is likely to deploy human shields to its bridges and power plants tonight. The use of civilians as human shields is banned under the Geneva Conventions (article 51).
Potash Prices Remain Stable Amid Fertilizer Market Shifts
CHARTS OF THE DAY: Not every fertiliser price is going up. Back in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, nitrogen fertilisers (urea and ammonia) rose shaprly. AT THE SAME TIME, potash fertiliser (potassium chloride) also surged. This time, potash fertilisers are little changed....
Trump Demands Free Oil Flow Through Hormuz in Deal
US President Donald Trump says that “part of the deal is we want free traffic of oil” via the Strait of Hormuz. (In reference to the current US-Iran talks via regional intermediaries)
Trump Claims Oil Spoils Belong to Victors
“To the victor go the spoils” — US President Trump says about Venezuelan oil (and Iranian oil).
Israel Strikes Iran's Asaluyeh Petrochemical Complex, Spares Gas Field
Israel appears to have attacked again the petrochemical plants connected to the South Pars gas project (but not the gas field itself or any of its immediate processing facilities). Israel said its military hit Iran's largest petrochemical facility, located in Asaluyeh.
US Economy Stays Strong Amid High Gas, Global Outlook Darkens
“… Despite high gasoline prices, the U.S. economy is holding up. Abroad, though, interest rates and inflation risks have shot up, fuel is being conserved, and economic forecasts are darkening…” — @greg_ip https://t.co/tifsrZ3N3S
Saudi Raises Arab Light Price to Record Premium
Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling price (OSP) to a record high. The state-owned Saudi oil giant told refineries in Asian it would charge a premium of $19.5 a barrel over the regional benchmark for sales of its flagship...
Trump Pushes Iran Deadline, Promises Conflict Ends in Days
US President Trump appears to have delayed (again) the deadline to Iran by one day. And in an interview with ABC News, Trump said the conflict should end in “days, not weeks.”
Open the Strait Now or Face Hellish Consequences
“… Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell…” https://t.co/2fn6LJ9CWN
Iranian Drones Strike Kuwait Oil Sites, Warning Before Trump Ultimatum
Hours ahead of Trump’s ultimatum on attacks on Iranian infrastructure, Iranian drones attacked (and set on fire) the headquarters of the Kuwait state-owned oil company KPC and the country’s oil ministry, located in Kuwait City. The message seems clear.
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports After Sanctions Eased
New Delhi confirms its buying oil from Iran (after US eased sanctions): “… Indian refiners have secured their crude oil requirements, including from Iran; and there is no payment hurdle for Iranian crude imports…”
US and Israel Strike Iran's Major Khuzestan Petrochemical Complexes
According to Iranian media, the US and Israel have attacked several large petrochemical sites in the Khuzestan province near the border with Iraq. The area between Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini are home to some of the Iranian largest petrochemical complexes.
Sixth Week of Hormuz War Sparks Oil Demand Destruction
The Third Gulf War (aka, the ‘Hormuz War’) is entering into its 6th week, at the very end of the initial White House guidance of a 4-6 week campaign. For the oil market, we are into demand destruction territory, although...
Strait of Hormuz Now Central as Vulnerabilities Rise
“They've demonstrated to the Gulf states how vulnerable they are and how vulnerable the global economy is,” said a European official briefed on diplomatic efforts to end the war. “So the price has gone up. The Strait of Hormuz never...
Trump Bluntly Admits War Driven by Oil
There was a time when the White House worked very hard to try to convince everyone that a war wasn’t about oil. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is crystal clear it’s about oil. https://t.co/XlAII7qvg6
White House Adviser Cites Futures: Energy Prices Falling
“… Energy prices are going down […] you don’t have to believe me, look at the futures market…” — White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett https://t.co/RCHUpjLhW2
Oil Futures Curve Contradicts White House’s Iran Disruption Claim
White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s...
Gasoline Stays Cheap While Oil Shock Fuels Politics
In any oil shock, the most politically charged part of the barrel is gasoline. Ironically in this crisis, gasoline is the least affected. (That doesn’t reduce the economic impact of sky high oil prices via diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil....
Record Hormuz Outflow: 4 Million Barrels, War‑Era Peak
Everything suggests that at least ~4 million barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz today. Largest outflow since the 1st day of the Third Gulf War. (... And yes, that's a fraction of the 20 million barrels a day...
Oil Prices Surge, Other Energy Markets Remain Flat
Third Gulf War — energy impact (week-on-week; Fri-to-Thu because Easter): Dated Brent oil: ⏫ +17.5% (note physical, not futures) WTI crude oil: ⏫ +12.2% Newcastle coal: ↔️ +1.5% EU nat gas TTF ⏬ -7.6% German power:...
2026 Food Crisis Fears Ease Compared to 2022
VIDEO COLUMN: Another food crisis? The experience of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, plus the increase in fertiliser prices, have prompted concern about another food price spike. But the situation in 2026 isn't nearly as concerning. At least, no yet. https://t.co/BjXPjnhMrG
WTI Backwardation Spikes, Shale Hedging Options Remain Limited
CHART OF THE DAY: The extreme backwardation in WTI oil futures, and the impact on (lack of) hedging opportunities for US shale for 2027-28. While the front of the curve has exploded (+$44 a barrel), the back (24 months out...
CFA Tag Reveals Client Ignorance on WTI‑Brent
If you manage outside money, put the letters “CFA” at the end of your social media name, and today you are asking “Why is WTI trading above Brent?,” I’m afraid your clients have a problem.
Macron Calls Military Reopening of Hormuz Unrealistic, Urges Iran Dialogue
French President Emmanuel Macron says it is "unrealistic" to think the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened through military means. "We must be able to reopen this strait because it’s strategic [...] but it can only be done in consultation with...
White House Dismisses Economic Risks of Third Gulf War
One of the key reasons why the White House remains so relaxed about the economic costs of the Third Gulf War. For the US, this time is truly different.
Oil Prices Surge to Suppress Demand, Fertilizer Costs Safe
PODCAST: Great to be back at "Odd Lots" with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart. Lots to discuss linked to the US-Iran war: why oil prices will go much higher to destroy demand, but why expensive fertilizer doesn't mean a food crisis is coming. https://t.co/UoHIl2cOqk
Trump Claims Victory, Seeks Weeks More War, Blocks Hormuz
President Trump declared victory against Iran but then asked for another 2-3 weeks to continue the war. And offered not path to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. "The countries of the world that […] receive oil through the Hormuz Strait...
Trump Lifts Sanctions on Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez
President Trump removes Delcy Rodriguez, the head of the Venezuelan government, from the U.S. sanctions list https://t.co/TUZyRVdQUV