Targeting Upstream Energy Assets Signals Unchecked Escalation
Both sides are now targeting upstream (ie, production) oil and natural gas assets. Is this an attempt to escalate to de-escalate? Or is it simply a sign that escalation is spiralling out of control?
U.S. Shouldn't Manipulate Oil Prices via Market Intervention
COLUMN: The US shouldn't try to influence energy prices by intervening in the financial market for oil. "... The oil futures and options market isn’t a casino where the US government can self-appoint itself as the house that always wins..." @Opinion...
Iran Claims US‑Israeli Strikes Target South Pars Gas Field
Iran said US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure, according to state television. Petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added.
Gulf States Seek to Neutralize Iran After strikesGulf States Seek to Neutral
Battered by Iranian strikes and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.A.E. and some fellow Gulf states now want the regime to be neutered, if not dismantled, once the conflict ends https://t.co/u1v454vp6D
Iran Confirms Death of Senior Wartime Leader Ali Larijani
Iranian state media has now confirmed the death of Ali Larijani, the secretary of the country’s Supreme National Security Council and a key pillar of the Islamic Republic wartime leadership.
U.S. Pressures Kurdistan to Resume Limited Oil Flow
Iraqi Kurdistan authorities have come under strong U.S. pressure to get this done. Not a lot of oil (~300,000 b/d) but it’s better than nothing.
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil, China Still Receives It
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil — and Iran its getting (some of) its money. Three weeks into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. (No damage visible at this resolution) Photo @CopernicusEU...
US Diesel Prices Surge Past $5, Fueling Freight Inflation
CHART OF THE DAY: US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever. That’s freight inflation — and another big hit to the country’s farming economy (and it has received many hit since...
Iran's First Direct Strike on Oil/Gas Field
I believe this is the first sucessull Iranian attack against an **oil / gas field** since the war started (previous strikes against oil facilities involved refineries, terminals, and storage tanks). (Althought the tweet calls it an oil field, it likely...
Cuba Endures Nationwide Blackout, Protests Amid US Oil Embargo
While all the attention is (naturally) on Iran, don't lose sight of Cuba. The Caribean island has just suffered a country-wide blackout as it struggles under a de facto US oil embargo. Nightime protest have erupted in several Cuban cities in...
Treasury Secretary Confirms No US Intervention in Oil Derivatives
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the US government has NOT intervened in the oil derivatives market
India Buys Pricey Russian Oil Legally, Boosting Putin
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
Asia's Gas‑to‑Coal Flexibility Offsets Europe’s 2022 Shortfall
South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation...
Iran Attacks Fujairah, Spares Saudi Pipeline Bypass
Iran has started a new phase of its oil war: Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn't been attacked (and neither the Yemeni...
Nuclear Bomb Canal Proposal Ignoring Radiation Risks
What a genius idea: let’s detonate 12 nuclear bombs over the UAE and Oman to create a canal bypassing Hormuz. Who wants to introduce him to the Al Hajar mountains? ( (…we are leaving aside the small issue of radiation and...
Oil Demand Loss Hurts Big Economies More than Small
At risk of sounding unkind, for the global economic impact, it matters where oil demand destruction happens. The GDP hit — and spillover — isn’t the same if it occurs in a small economy like, say, Bangladesh, than if it happens...
Red Sea Swarms with Tankers as Hormuz Remains Closed
MAP OF THE DAY: While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed (other than a few tankers, notably from India), the Red Sea is witnessing the arrival of an oil tanker armada to the Saudi terminals there. (Tracking via @TheTerminal) (Blue...
IEA Sets Immediate Oil Release for Asia, Delays Europe, America
IEA has provided an update on the emergency oil stock release, with details on timing, regional split, and crude/product split. Asia stocks will be released immediately. Europe / America only at the of March. Still missing is the flow rate, however....
Fuel Oil Prices Spike, Threatening Container Shipping Costs
COLUMN: While the price of Brent and WTI crudes remain well below their record high, the cost of fuel oil has surged above the 2022 and 2008 peaks. The surge is a big problem for the workhorse of globalisation: the container...
White House Plans for Iran; Asks China for Warships
So let’s see if I got this right: The White House had anticipated (and prepared) for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. And part of that response is for the President to ask via social media geopolitical foes like...
Drone Strike Halts Fujairah Oil Loading After Kharg
The response after Kharg Island? Some oil loading operations in the UAE port of Fujairah, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, have been suspended after a drone attack and fire on Saturday morning. https://t.co/rhA5ofo80y https://t.co/SkhA67PyzU
Aramco Loads Five Crude Tankers Simultaneously—Historic First
Saudi Aramco is loading simultaneously 5 crude oil tankers in Yanbu and Al Mujjaiz terminals on the Red Sea coast. I don’t think that’s happened ever before.
LPG Tankers Cross Hormuz After Tehran‑Delhi Talks
One-off or sign of easing? Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi....
Kharg Island Hit 15 Times, Targeting Defense and Naval Facilities
Iranian media reports that Kharg Island was struck 15 times by explosions. The targets were the island’s air defense systems, a naval base, the airport control tower, and a helicopter hangar.
US Shifts SPR Strategy From Sale to Loan Exchange
The US gov seems to have changed its mind about the terms of the use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Earlier this week, it announced a **SPR release** (an outright sale, and the method used in the emergency actions of...
White House Admits Plan: Bomb Kharg Island Amid Hormuz Closure
OK, I suppose we should admit the White House was right, and, all along, they did have a plan to deal with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bomb Kharg Island.
API and CME Resist White House Oil‑Price Cuts
The American Petroleum Institute and CME (owner of the top US commodity exchange) are both pushing against some of the ideas the White House is floating to bring oil prices down. Reflexively, one would think that Joe Biden is...
U.S. Defense Secretary Says No Clear Evidence of Iranian Mines
US Defence Secretary Hegseth says there is "not clear evidence" that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz
War Adds $3‑6 per Barrel Daily, White House Stumped
COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices. "... My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single...
Iran Keeps Flooding Strait of Hormuz with Oil
VIDEO EXPLAINER: The most important map of the Third Gulf War — the oilfields, the Strait of Hormuz, and the bypass pipelines. Plus a look at how, two weeks into the war, Iran is still exporting lots of its oil,...
Brent Breaches $100, First Time in 3½ Years
Brent closes the day above $100 a barrel for the first time in three and a half years. Note: during the 2022 crisis, Brent settled above triple-digit level for 110 days. So far in 2026, just one day.
Saudi Pays Record Tanker Rates to Ship Red Sea Crude
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.
Gulf of Aden Swarms with VLCCs, No Houthi Attacks Yet
There are so many VLCCs oil tankers in the Gulf of Aden right now that one could walk from Djibouti to Socrota island wihtout getting their feet wet. (... and no, contrary to some social media posts, the Houthis have...
Iran Ramps up Energy Attacks as Oil Stays Sub‑$100
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
U.S. to Release 172 M Barrels Over 120 Days
U.S. details its participation in the IEA coordinated SPR release. Washington will release 172 million barrels over a 120 day period, equal to a flow of ~1.4 million barrels per day.
IEA Ignores Demand Solutions, Relies Solely on Supply
Final comment on IEA release: If the shortfall is such that it requires a 400 million barrels release, surely demand measures should had been approved too: fuel switching (oil-to-coal, gas-to-coal); societal behaviour (lower highway speed limits, lower AC/heating use), and...
Trump Confirms US Join IEA Oil Release, Plans SPR Refill
President Trump has formally confirmed the US is participating in the IEA emergency oil stock release. “We’ll do that and then we’ll fill it up,” Trump said referring to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “Right now, we’ll reduce it a little...
Trump Doubts Iranian Mines, Urges Tankers Through Hormuz
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...
Japan's 80 Million‑Barrel Release Beats IEA's Forecast
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
Reserve Composition Outweighs Sheer Size, IEA Shows
More on the IEA reserves: US has only crude Japan has a mix of crude and products Europe has mostly products The mix of the release is as important as the size of the release
Countries Urge China to Curb Oil Reserve Purchases
Also, as the IEA releases, member countries are reaching out to China to make sure it doesn't use the opportunity to buy more barrels for its own reserve (as it did in 2022). (...the IEA-Chinese coordinate was last done in 2011...
IEA Release: Watch Daily Flow, Not Total Barrels
When the IEA release is announced, my focus won't be on the headline number (say 300-400m barrels). Ignore that number. The key is the flow, in BARRELS PER DAY, the IEA promises FOR THE FIRST 20-30 DAYS of the stockdraw, and...
G7/G20 Vows to Curb Iran Oil Leverage
Inside the G7 (and the G20) most countries are absolutely livid with the Trump administration's attack on Iran, but don't mistake their indignation with a desire to let Iran take the global economy hostage via oil. G7/G20/OECD nations will respond...
G7 Leaders Convene Video Call on Gulf War Energy Crisis
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...
UAE's Defense Spending Outpaces Iran's Offense Tenfold
“… Right now it looks like the Gulf - especially the UAE - is spending something like $28 in defense for every $1 Iran spends on offense […] that's not a long-term equation anyone wants to …”
Pakistan Deploys Navy to Guard Oil Lifelines Amid Saudi Ties
Pakistan says it has launched a naval operation to protect its “energy lifelines.” In some ways expected: oil importing nations in Asia may step in protecting their own tankers. (Importantly, Pakistan has a defence treaty with Saudi Arabia, and buys...
Supply Strength Keeps Oil Prices Low, Diminishing Hedge Demand
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
How IEA Emergency Oil Releases Actually Work
It's a while since the last IEA emergency oil release, so I put together a briefing note on how it works in practice as it follows a strict technical and diplomatic protocol. The below is a (simplified) guide to follow...
Tehran Leverages Its War‑Endurance as Strategic Advantage
"... Tehran intends to fully exploit what it sees as one of its key advantages: its capacity to endure and absorb the costs of war..."
Europe’s Nuclear Cut Deemed Strategic Mistake, Admits Politician
Forward the video to 1.40: “… While in 1990, one third of Europe's electricity came from nuclear, today it's only close to 15%. This reduction in the share of nuclear was a choice. And in hindsight, it was a strategic mistake…” Good to...