Iran's Oil Pressure Backfires, Trump Gains From Ceasefire
Iran’s strategy all along has been to impose an unbearable economic cost on the US if Trump continued the war via oil and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, oil is down ~20% well below $100 a barrel. From that perspective, it’s clear who benefits most from the 2-week ceasefire off ramp. That’s Trump. But the question is: would Tehran extract significant concessions in the negotiations in terms of sanctions relief and/or somehow Hormuz control? Perhaps that’s the quid pro quo.
General Caine Warns Iran Could Block Vital Hormuz Strait
MUST READ: “General Caine […] also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. Mr. Trump had dismissed that possibility on the assumption that the regime would capitulate before it came...
Build Global Energy Corridors to Bypass Hormuz, Says Hochstein
".... The only long-term solution is new infrastructure—making a massive, internationally coordinated investment in energy corridors that bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely... " -- @amoshochstein https://t.co/hvu4ACTwok
Futures
The oil futures market continues to price a big TACO. Physical oil quotes are sky high, but futures imply a significant improvement in supply in a few weeks. If the market moves to priced a much longer disruption — and see below...
EIA Predicts Prolonged Persian Gulf Crude Production Disruption
The US Energy Information Administration (@EIAgov) is now forecasting a rather long disruption to crude oil production in the Persian Gulf. (Note this is wellhead production rather than flows via Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't appear to include natural gas liquids,...
China’s Coal‑Based Urea Shields It From Fertiliser Price Spikes
China produces ~80% of its urea from coal rather than (as most other nations do) natural gas. The method is insulating Beijing from rising nitrogen fertiliser prices. I wrote ⤵️ this @Opinion column about the Chinese coal-to-chemicals industry last June. https://t.co/TQg6HHD3J8
War‑Driven Food Prices Shift Slightly, Crisis Not Imminent
Key food commodity prices since US-Iran war started: 🍚 Rice: ⬇️ -6.3% 🌾 Wheat: ⬇️ -0.5% 🥫 Soybean: ⬆️ +0.6% 🌽 Corn: ...
Iran Set
Iran is likely to deploy human shields to its bridges and power plants tonight. The use of civilians as human shields is banned under the Geneva Conventions (article 51).
Potash Prices Remain Stable Amid Fertilizer Market Shifts
CHARTS OF THE DAY: Not every fertiliser price is going up. Back in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, nitrogen fertilisers (urea and ammonia) rose shaprly. AT THE SAME TIME, potash fertiliser (potassium chloride) also surged. This time, potash fertilisers are little changed....
Trump Demands Free Oil Flow Through Hormuz in Deal
US President Donald Trump says that “part of the deal is we want free traffic of oil” via the Strait of Hormuz. (In reference to the current US-Iran talks via regional intermediaries)
Trump Claims Oil Spoils Belong to Victors
“To the victor go the spoils” — US President Trump says about Venezuelan oil (and Iranian oil).
Israel Strikes Iran's Asaluyeh Petrochemical Complex, Spares Gas Field
Israel appears to have attacked again the petrochemical plants connected to the South Pars gas project (but not the gas field itself or any of its immediate processing facilities). Israel said its military hit Iran's largest petrochemical facility, located in Asaluyeh.
US Economy Stays Strong Amid High Gas, Global Outlook Darkens
“… Despite high gasoline prices, the U.S. economy is holding up. Abroad, though, interest rates and inflation risks have shot up, fuel is being conserved, and economic forecasts are darkening…” — @greg_ip https://t.co/tifsrZ3N3S
Saudi Raises Arab Light Price to Record Premium
Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling price (OSP) to a record high. The state-owned Saudi oil giant told refineries in Asian it would charge a premium of $19.5 a barrel over the regional benchmark for sales of its flagship...
Trump Pushes Iran Deadline, Promises Conflict Ends in Days
US President Trump appears to have delayed (again) the deadline to Iran by one day. And in an interview with ABC News, Trump said the conflict should end in “days, not weeks.”
Open the Strait Now or Face Hellish Consequences
“… Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell…” https://t.co/2fn6LJ9CWN
Iranian Drones Strike Kuwait Oil Sites, Warning Before Trump Ultimatum
Hours ahead of Trump’s ultimatum on attacks on Iranian infrastructure, Iranian drones attacked (and set on fire) the headquarters of the Kuwait state-owned oil company KPC and the country’s oil ministry, located in Kuwait City. The message seems clear.
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports After Sanctions Eased
New Delhi confirms its buying oil from Iran (after US eased sanctions): “… Indian refiners have secured their crude oil requirements, including from Iran; and there is no payment hurdle for Iranian crude imports…”
US and Israel Strike Iran's Major Khuzestan Petrochemical Complexes
According to Iranian media, the US and Israel have attacked several large petrochemical sites in the Khuzestan province near the border with Iraq. The area between Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini are home to some of the Iranian largest petrochemical complexes.
Sixth Week of Hormuz War Sparks Oil Demand Destruction
The Third Gulf War (aka, the ‘Hormuz War’) is entering into its 6th week, at the very end of the initial White House guidance of a 4-6 week campaign. For the oil market, we are into demand destruction territory, although...
Strait of Hormuz Now Central as Vulnerabilities Rise
“They've demonstrated to the Gulf states how vulnerable they are and how vulnerable the global economy is,” said a European official briefed on diplomatic efforts to end the war. “So the price has gone up. The Strait of Hormuz never...
Trump Bluntly Admits War Driven by Oil
There was a time when the White House worked very hard to try to convince everyone that a war wasn’t about oil. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is crystal clear it’s about oil. https://t.co/XlAII7qvg6
White House Adviser Cites Futures: Energy Prices Falling
“… Energy prices are going down […] you don’t have to believe me, look at the futures market…” — White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett https://t.co/RCHUpjLhW2
Oil Futures Curve Contradicts White House’s Iran Disruption Claim
White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s...
Gasoline Stays Cheap While Oil Shock Fuels Politics
In any oil shock, the most politically charged part of the barrel is gasoline. Ironically in this crisis, gasoline is the least affected. (That doesn’t reduce the economic impact of sky high oil prices via diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil....
Record Hormuz Outflow: 4 Million Barrels, War‑Era Peak
Everything suggests that at least ~4 million barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz today. Largest outflow since the 1st day of the Third Gulf War. (... And yes, that's a fraction of the 20 million barrels a day...
Oil Prices Surge, Other Energy Markets Remain Flat
Third Gulf War — energy impact (week-on-week; Fri-to-Thu because Easter): Dated Brent oil: ⏫ +17.5% (note physical, not futures) WTI crude oil: ⏫ +12.2% Newcastle coal: ↔️ +1.5% EU nat gas TTF ⏬ -7.6% German power:...
2026 Food Crisis Fears Ease Compared to 2022
VIDEO COLUMN: Another food crisis? The experience of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, plus the increase in fertiliser prices, have prompted concern about another food price spike. But the situation in 2026 isn't nearly as concerning. At least, no yet. https://t.co/BjXPjnhMrG
WTI Backwardation Spikes, Shale Hedging Options Remain Limited
CHART OF THE DAY: The extreme backwardation in WTI oil futures, and the impact on (lack of) hedging opportunities for US shale for 2027-28. While the front of the curve has exploded (+$44 a barrel), the back (24 months out...
CFA Tag Reveals Client Ignorance on WTI‑Brent
If you manage outside money, put the letters “CFA” at the end of your social media name, and today you are asking “Why is WTI trading above Brent?,” I’m afraid your clients have a problem.
Macron Calls Military Reopening of Hormuz Unrealistic, Urges Iran Dialogue
French President Emmanuel Macron says it is "unrealistic" to think the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened through military means. "We must be able to reopen this strait because it’s strategic [...] but it can only be done in consultation with...
White House Dismisses Economic Risks of Third Gulf War
One of the key reasons why the White House remains so relaxed about the economic costs of the Third Gulf War. For the US, this time is truly different.
Oil Prices Surge to Suppress Demand, Fertilizer Costs Safe
PODCAST: Great to be back at "Odd Lots" with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart. Lots to discuss linked to the US-Iran war: why oil prices will go much higher to destroy demand, but why expensive fertilizer doesn't mean a food crisis is coming. https://t.co/UoHIl2cOqk
Trump Claims Victory, Seeks Weeks More War, Blocks Hormuz
President Trump declared victory against Iran but then asked for another 2-3 weeks to continue the war. And offered not path to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. "The countries of the world that […] receive oil through the Hormuz Strait...
Trump Lifts Sanctions on Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez
President Trump removes Delcy Rodriguez, the head of the Venezuelan government, from the U.S. sanctions list https://t.co/TUZyRVdQUV
UAE Calls for UN Chapter 7 Action on Hormuz Navigation
In a letter to the UN Security Council, UAE is invoking Chapter 7 of the UN charter (commonly referred as 'use of force') seeking “immediate action” in order to “ensure the safe and secure navigation and navigational rights and freedoms...
Physical Brent Commands $20 Premium over June Futures
When looking at the oil market: Brent **June** futures (settled at the end of April): That's trading at ~$102 a barrel. But physical Brent market for prompt delivery: That's trading at ~$125 a barrel. There's a big difference depending on when a refinery needs...
Three Tankers Load Simultaneously at Saudi Al Muajjiz Terminal
PHOTO OF THE DAY: Very rare sighthing — three large oil tankers loading simultanouesly at the Al Muajjiz terminal (Yanbu south) in the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia (one of the end points of the East-West pipeline). 🛰️📷@CopernicusEU Sentinel-2...
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports, Undermining Sanctions
After a 7-year hiatus, India is about to import its first Iranian oil. At ~$100 a barrel. Quite the achievement in Washington for the long-term strenght of the economic and financial sanctions regime.
BP Appoints Meg O'Neill, Fourth CEO in Six Years
In non-Iran news, BP new boss Meg O'Neill started today on her job. She's the fourth CEO in six years running the British oil major. O'Neill will face shareholders first at the company's AGM, secheduled for April 23, and potentially again...
US‑Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, but Europe’s Inflation Stays Modest
CHARTS OF THE DAY: What's the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war for Europe (and thus the ECB and BoE)? Sure, the price of oil and refined products has risen. But paralells between the curent shock and the 2022 energy...
Trump Signals US Withdrawal From Strait of Hormuz
Increasingly it does sound like US President Donald Trump will leave the Strait of Hormuz to others to sort out. "... The U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore ..." https://t.co/8wFtBLuoCa
Pakistan, China Foreign Ministers Meet Amid US‑Iran Deal Rumors
The Pakistani and Chinese foreign affairs ministers have met today in Beijing, according to Chinese state media. The meeting comes as **rumours** abound that Beijing could play a role as "guarantor" of any US-Iran deal.
European Gas Prices Dip, Still 75% Above Pre‑War
The European benchmark natural gas price (TTF) is today **lower** than four weeks ago. Yup: Lower. (And yes, TTF prices are still up >75% from pre-war levels, but around the same level as they were in Jan-Feb 2025)
US Gas Prices Top $4 Gallon, First Since 2022
CHART OF THE DAY: The US gasoline national average retail price has risen above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, per the @AAA_Travel. It's the kind of price level that typically has triggered political alarms inside the...
Managed Money's Oil Options Net Long 50× Average
Goldman Sachs on the oil options market: “… The rally has spread beyond the spot crude market, with net long options managed money positioning 50 times higher than its 10-year average as investors bought options with strikes as high as $450...
Iran Attacks Kuwaiti Oil Tanker in Dubai Port
Iran has hit a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port, damaging the hull and starting a fire on board, state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said https://t.co/z0pPgEwdwx
WTI Hits $100+ for First Time Since 2022
For the first time since the war started, WTI oil has settled above the $100-a-barrel threshold. It’s the first triple-digit settlement since 2022, when it closed above that level for >80 trading days. To match that, WTI would need to remain >$100...
Brent May Futures Expire, June Takes Over at $108
A reminder that the Brent May futures contract, currently trading ~$115 a barrel, expires tomorrow. From Wednesday, the front-month futures would be the Brent June contract, currently trading at ~$108 a barrel. Liquidity has already moved from May to...
Trump Threatens to Destroy Iran's Oil and Water Infrastructure
I suppose that today wasn't an oil jawboning day. Instead, US President Trump just threatened Tehran with blowing up not just all its power stations, but also its oil wells, Kharg Island, and "possibly" all desalination water plants (Note: the...