UAE Exits OPEC and OAPEC, Widening Gulf Rift
On top of leaving OPEC, the UAE has also left the (far less important) OAPEC, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. The rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh/Kuwait City seems to be growing.
Negotiation Hinges on Who Bends: Iran or US
Trump says Iran is asking for things he "can't agree with." But in reality, what he means is that he doesn't **want** to to agree to them. Ultimately, however, this is a negotiation. Both sides would have to swallow stuff they...
Chevron Leverages Permian for Immediate Cash Flow, Future Gas Growth
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth on the Permian: "... we're running the Permian to deliver strong free cash flow right now. We could we could hit the gas and begin to grow it again..."
Exxon Sees Endless Permian Growth, Defies Plateau Predictions
Exxon CEO Darren Woods on the Permian: "... We've had the pedal to the metal here from the very beginning [...] Unlike many of our competitors, who I think have predicted the plateauing of of the resource [....], we have...
Chevron Beats Q1 Estimates Amid Higher Prices, Strong Refining
BIG OIL 1Q EARNINGS: In line with its peers, Chevron reports stronger-than-expected earnings, with higher prices offseting some output losses (in part due to shutdown in the neutral zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia). Interesting to note very strong refinery...
Trump Vows to Test Iran's Endurance Amid Blockade
Trump on Iran: "We’ll see how long they hold out." Overnight, the White House reiterated it was sticking with a naval blockade of Iranian ports. "Their economy is crashing, the blockade is incredible," Trump told reporters at the White House.
U.S. Turns Net Crude Exporter Amid Overseas Surge
The surge in US crude oil overseas sales means the country was last week a net exporter of crude. (In the past, the US exported more crude oil *AND* refined products — combined — than it imported. But now it's an...
92.5M Barrel SPR Swap Part of Existing 172M Deal
On the 92.5 million barrels SPR exchange, do NOTE this a tranche that's part of the **already announced** 172 million barrels exchange (it was announced March 12). This is NOT an additional release.
Japan Confident of Crude Oil Supply Through Year‑end
Japanese top officials say that "even conservatively, we expect to ensure supply [of crude oil] through the end of the year."
Record Beef Prices Trigger Shift to Other Meats
The biggest food price problem has nothing to do with the US-Iran war. Beef prices are rising higher, today setting a new all-time high above $2.55 per lb. The rise in beef is prompting demand switch to other meat forms, putting...
Belgium to Nationalize All Nuclear Reactors, Stop Decommissioning
Belgium plans to nationalize all the country's nuclear power reactors, and says that plans to decommission the plants are now "halted with immediate effect."
US Becomes Top Crude Exporter, Overtaking Saudi Arabia
Clearly an anomaly that will end when the Strait of Hormuz re-opens. Still, noteworthy: tanker tracker @Petro_Logistics reckons the US was the world's largest crude oil exporter (note: crude) in April, overtaking leader Saudi Arabia (and ahead of Russia, the...
Economist Predicts Oil Still Undervalued, Prices Set to Rise
Oh dear, the curse of The Economist's oil cover: "... Why oil prices are not yet high enough..." You know what that means, don't you? https://t.co/fWwZunxd0P
Brent Futures Hold Tight Within $13 Range, No News
The (expiring) front-month Brent oil contract has traded today within a ~$13 range in absolutely no-news.
China Eases Fuel Export Ban for Select Asian Buyers
Important development: China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export some gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel to a handful of regular customers (in Asia), signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments.
2026 European Shock Driven by Oil, Not Gas
CHART OF THE DAY: The 2022 European energy crisis was mostly about natural gas and electricity prices. The shock of 2026 is (in Europe) largely about oil. EU power markets remain largely stable (📉⤵️). A key reason is that France is...
Glencore Predicts Trading Division Will Surpass Profit Guidance
Glencore says that based on 1Q performance, it expects its trading division to "comfortably" exceeds "the top" of its long-term profit guidance.
Trump's Oil Blockade Persists; SPR Releases and Export Caps Denied
I’m afraid that if President Trump really wants to continue the blockade for months while minimising the impact on US consumers, there’s only a (bad) way: more SPR releases and/or oil export restrictions. The White House has consistently said neither is...
US Export Surge Drains Inventories, Threatening Energy Security
The world is calling on the barrel of last resort — and it’s brutal for the US. American total petroleum exports (crude and refined products) surged last week to an all-time high >14m b/d. The price? US total inventories plunged at ~3.5...
Rice Prices Hit 19-Year Low, Farmers Need Support
Again, wholesale rice prices below pre-war levels (fully reversing a mini panic move earlier in April). On a monthly average basis, rice isn't far away from its lowest level in 19 years. For Asian nations, the problem is that rice is...
Refinery Jet and Diesel Peaks Cut Other Outputs, Prices Rise
When oil refineries go "max" jet and "max" diesel, they (necessarily) also reduce output of other products. The market is starting to price it.
US Gas Prices Surge Again Under Trump Administration
CHART OF THE DAY: After a short relief period, US gasoline retail prices have climbed to another high under a Trump administration. (Coincidentally, President Trump met yesterday with oil CEOs. I bet the White House will be soon announcing new...
CEO Prioritizes Jet Fuel Over Diesel at Refineries
Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne says the company's instruction to its refineries is "max jet [fuel] first, and then max diesel."
Trump Misreads Iran Oil Surge Despite U.S. Blockade
COLUMN: Donald Trump's assertion that Iran's oil industry is about to “explode” shows a misunderstanding of the effect of the US naval blockade. @Opinion https://t.co/j9w99iyoZN
TotalEnergies Hikes Dividend, Doubles Buybacks to $1.5B
BIG OIL 1Q EARNINGS: TotalEnergies boost quarterly buybacks again to the top of its guidance at $1.5 billion a quarter (up the lower bottom of ~$750 million more recently) and hikes dividend after a strong set of results in Jan-Mar...
Treasury Warns Banks: Chinese Refineries Buying Iranian Oil Risk Sanctions
US Treasury publishes an "alert," warning banks about the sanctions risks of dealing with independent Chinese oil refineries ('teapot') due to their purchases of Iranian oil. (I have my doubts about the efficiency of the alert, considering yuan-based payment for Iranian...
UAE and Qatar, Both Ex‑OPEC, Deepen Energy Ties
Surely a coincidence this happened today (😇): The country leaving OPEC meets the country that left OPEC.
Iran’s Hormuz Move Tests Japan‑US Alliance
The Nissho Maru broke in 1953 an oil trading embargo that the UK had unilaterally imposed on Iran. Today, another Japanese ship, also owned by the same oil refiner, exited the Strait of Hormuz. Quite the message by the Iranians —...
UAE Exits OPEC to Boost Production, Accept Lower Prices
REACTION COLUMN: Why is the UAE leaving OPEC? The announcement has little to do with the US-Iran war; the exit road started in Riyadh, with a detour in Texas. It's all about the UAE wanting to pump more oil, even at the...
UAE Signals Major Diplomatic Shift Amid Regional Discontent
Something big seems to be cooking in the Middle East: Multiple Emirate commentators are softening the ground for a major diplomatic announcement. Aside Iran, the UAE has been dissatisfied with several neighbors and its membership in several organisations.
Japanese‑linked Tanker Uses Iranian Lanes for Saudi Oil
Interesting movement in the Strait of Hormuz: A supertanker linked to Japan is entering the SoH on her way out of the Persian Gulf. The Idemitsu Maru VLCC is following the Iranian new shipping lanes with a ~2m barrel cargo of...
Trump Doubts Iran's Proposal, Oil Hits Post‑ceasefire Highs
According to both the NYT and the WSJ, President Trump is skeptical of the latest proposal from Iran to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (and leave nuclear talks for later). Oil prices are now the highest since...
Rubio: Iran Won’t Control Access to Hormuz Strait
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Hormuz: “If what they mean by opening the straits is, ‘yes, the straits are opened, as long as you coordinate with Iran, get our permission, or we will blow you up and you...
U.S. Gas Prices Plunge While Europe Soars
CHART OF THE DAY: A favourite chart whenever the price of natural gas in Europe and Asia rises. Meanwhile, in West Texas the price goes deeply negative, reaching a record low of nearly -$10 per mBtu over the weekend (so...
Iran Still Loading Oil at Kharg, Storage Not Exhausted
PHOTO OF THE DAY: As of yesterday (April 26), Iran was still loading oil into tankers at Kharg Island. So beware of talk about Tehran running out of onshore / floating storage in only a couple of days. (Photo via...
Iran Offers Blockade Lift, Strait Reopen, Nuclear Talks Delayed
According to @Axios, Iran has given the US a new proposal for reaching a deal on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade first, and postponing nuclear negotiations for a later stage. https://t.co/4oIkEaf0lH
Trump Exaggerates Iran Oil Storage Timeline, Predicts Explosions
President Trump seems to assume Iran runs of oil storage in three days (so April 29). My sense is that Tehran has longer to keep storing. He also says when storage runs out, "oil lines" would "just explode." Here, I...
Japan's TV Hails Lone US Tanker, Exposing Asia's Oil Shortage
You know Asia is truly short of crude oil when Japanese television covers the arrival of a single oil tanker from America as a major news story https://t.co/vrsPhH1OOy
IMF Lifts 2026 Growth Forecast Amid Hormuz Worries
If Hormuz blockade continues, all would change. But perspective matters. See the IMF global economic growth forecast: Published in Apr 2025: 3.0% (for 2026) Published in Apr 2026: 3.1% (for 2026) Current IMF 2026 forecast is **higher** than its estimate published a year...
Iran's Real Power: Strait of Hormuz Outweighs Nukes
“… The Strait of Hormuz, geography’s strategic gift to Iran, is now a more potent source of influence for Tehran than its nuclear program, ballistic missiles or proxies have ever been…” https://t.co/6yrHVfIioz
Admin Claims New Iran Terror Premium in Oil Prices
From the @DallasFed special edition of its energy survey: “… The administration’s comment about an “Iran terror premium” existing for decades with oil pricing is laughable. But now the administration has created one where it did not exist before…” — anonymous...
Future Iran Deal Mirrors JCPOA: Limits for Relief
“… Any future nuclear deal with the current Iranian regime will rest on a familiar foundation: constraints on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for meaningful economic relief…”
Condom Prices Set to Jump 20‑30% Amid Petrochemical Shock
The world’s top condom maker says it plans to raise prices by 20%-30% and possibly further due to the impact of the US-Iran war in the petrochemical industry. Malaysia's Karex Bhd told Reuters is also seeing a surge in condom...
American LNG Revolution Rises: Woodside Cranes at Lake Charles
PHOTO OF THE DAY: The build up of the American LNG revolution. The cranes at the Woodside project under construction near Lake Charles, Louisiana, seen at sunrise a few days ago. https://t.co/QlyMzh0C8s
Iran Vows to Keep Hormuz Closed Amid US Port Blockade
Iran has rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the hugely important waterway as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
Physical vs Financial Oil: Why Prices Diverge Globally
WEEKEND READ: What is the price of oil — the real one? My attempt to shed light into the PHYSICAL and FINANCIAL oil markets, and why you can pick up a barrel of crude for $78 in Kansas or $286 in...
Mixed Traffic Persists as New Iranian Lanes Dominate
Strait of Hormuz observations: 1) Clearly, there's some movement: ~10 LPG / products / oil tankers are crossing (but includes dark fleet) 2) At the same time, other oil tankers have stopped after approaching 3) All the (vissible) traffic is via the...
US Renews Russian Oil License, Boosting Putin Amid Iran War
Having said two days ago that the U.S. wouldn’t renew a general license easing Russian oil sanctions, the @USTreasury did exactly the opposite: renew it. Vladimir Putin keeps benefiting from the U.S.-Iran war: higher prices and American sanctions waivers. Double...
Oil Markets Converge as Brent Slides Below $100
It turns out that oil financial and physical markets do converge -- just not in the way that many were expecting. Dated Brent is now below $100 a barrel (from $145 last week), and physical differentials in the key pricing window...
Iran Mandates Specific Shipping Lane Despite Trump’s Openness Claim
President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open. But do note Tehran says shipping traffic needs to follow the "coordinated route as already announced” by Iran. What's that route? My @Opinion video explainer, published originally last week, shows it. https://t.co/Pg7UBNarHY