Iranian TV Confirms Draft US‑Iran MoU Lifting Blockade
Iran state television says it has obtained a draft of the Washington-Tehran MoU. Main points for oil: 1) US will lift blockade and withdraw from Iran's waters. 2) Iran will allow commercial vessel transit via Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war levels within 30 days. 3) Iran and Oman will administer a SoH mechanism. (While the above has been mooted by others, it's the first time that Iranian state television, tightly controlled by the regime, reports about those points)
Li Qiang Visits SPR Sites, Pushes Reserve Coordination
Chinese Premier Li Qiang casually (😏) paid visit in recent days to four of the country's SPR oil sites, state broadcaster China Central Television reports. And, just in passing (😏) Li also called to improve coordination between strategy and commercial...
Second‑largest SPR Release Ever, 9.1 M Barrels This Week
Another mammoth SPR release last week, with a flow equal to ~1.3m b/d (nearly 9.1 million barrels over the week). The weekly release is the **second highest on record**, just a notch below the all-time high set the previous week...
Trump Promises Imminent Iran Deal and Hormuz Reopening
🚨🚨🚨Latest on U.S.-Iran talks: President Trump says a deal will be announced “shortly” and the Strait of Hormuz will be “opened.” https://t.co/UoaHVyfrCf
Wall Street Bets on Hormuz Reopening Despite Risk
COLUMN: Wall Street is full of hope, leaning on a tweaked version of Stein’s Law: “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be closed forever because it will cause too much economic damage. Therefore, it will reopen.” But what if it didn’t...
Asia Eyes China’s Coal‑based Chemicals, Despite Climate Costs
COLUMN: India and other Asian powers want to copy China's method for producing chemicals and fertilisers from coal. It won’t be easy — or climate friendly. @Opinion https://t.co/5DjMOwAQKu
EasyJet Assures Uninterrupted Summer Flights, Fuel Supply Stable
"We have seen absolutely no issues with jet fuel supply [...] We have no concerns this summer. We fully intent to fly the schedule we have" -- EasyJet CEO
Third Consecutive Temporary Waiver Highlights OFAC License Pattern
The US issues its 3rd "temporary" waiver on Russian oil sanctions. What's the collective noun for a group of consecutive "temporary" OFAC general licenses?
Iran Conflict Strains Airlines, yet European Summer Flights Stay Safe
COLUMN: The war in Iran is squeezing airlines, but your European summer holiday flights should still be fine. Right now, oil refiners are squeezing more jet-fuel than ever from each barrel of crude to prevent a shortage. @Opinion https://t.co/6OFW2L6lky
China, US Agree on Fast Hormuz Reopening, Yet Stalled
China called for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a goal it shares with the US, though there was no sign of a breakthrough between the superpowers on how to achieve that. https://t.co/m6CjEnUJOJ
IEA Predicts 2026 Global Oil Demand Falls 0.4 M
Global oil demand will contract by about 0.4m b/d in 2026, according to a new @IEA estimate. Pre-war, it saw a 0.9m b/d increase. IEA sees the bulk of the decline in OECD nations (>0.3 b/d), as non-OECD governments shield...
US Export Surge Holds Oil Market, Depleting Stockpiles
COLUMN: A massive surge in US exports has kept the oil market in check. But the clock is ticking: it's sustaining the flow using a stockpile. And unlike the printing presses of the Fed, it can’t just be topped up...
Vietnam Urges US to Lift Blockade, Claims Iraqi Oil
The saga of the Agios Fanourios I VLCC oil tanker is getting more interesting by the day. Vietnam is formally asking the US Navy to let the tanker pass the blockade, saying she carries Iraqi, rather than Iranian, oil. Washington...
Iran Expands Strait of Hormuz Claim to 200 Km Radius
MAP OF THE DAY: Iran is claiming a much wider geographical footprint for the Strait of Hormuz than before, according to state media. Tehran says the SoH area goes from the port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman to...
Japan Denies Oil Futures Intervention, Keeps Option Open
Japan has publicly denied it had intervened in the oil futures market Speaking overnight, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tokyo hadn’t intervened but added the government had never ruled out such an option.
Trump to Slash Beef Tariffs to Curb Meat Prices
US President Donald Trump will sign an executive order to, in effect, lower tariffs on foreign beef imports as the White House struggles to reduce meat prices.
Trump Dismisses Iranian Response, Says Ceasefire Teeters
President Trump says he “didn’t even finish reading” the Iranian response, calling it a “piece of garbage.” The US-Iran ceasefire is in “massive life support,” he told reporters.
Kharg Island Sees Longest Tanker‑free Stretch Since War’s Start
Kharg Island update: @CopernicusEU satellite imagery shows no supertanker loadings on May 8, May 9 and May 11 (we don't have data for May 10 from either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel-2 🛰️). It looks like the longest stretch without loadings...
Oil Cargo Prices Plunge as Buyers Retreat
MUST READ: The cost of a real-world oil cargo is dropping fast as buyers back away. The sharp retreat provides a counterintuitive backdrop to warnings the oil market is barreling toward a crisis point. Still, traders cautioned the calm may be...
Oil Flow Stalls Amid Unclear Conflict, some Tankers Hidden
Day 73: No-peace, no-war, and very-little-oil (Saying “very little” because clearly some tankers are existing with AIS off)
Saudi Retaliation Risk: Destroying Own Oil Assets
“… Had the Kingdom wanted, and it is capable of doing so, to respond in kind to Iran by destroying Iranian facilities and interests, the outcome could have been the destruction of Saudi oil facilities…” — Prince Turki Al-Faisal https://t.co/yVh8S9oMYL
Iran Responds to US Proposal to End 10‑Week War
Iran has submitted its response to the latest US proposal to end 10 weeks of war, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported on Sunday.
US Shoots Down Empty Iranian Oil Tankers
US has disabled another two Iranian unladen oil tankers, this time by firing into their smokestacks, thereby stopping them from crossing into the Persian Gulf. Two days ago, the US also disabled another empty Iranian oil tanker by firing into...
Physical Oil Spreads Collapse as Market Reverses
CHARTS OF THE DAY: Rightly or wrongly, the physical oil market has turned around (📉⤵️). Other physical datapoints (early May vs mid Apr): WTI is down to +$2.5 to Dated Brent from +$22 CPC is down to -$0.35 to Dated from +$7 Dalia (a...
Washington Awaits Iran's Response Today, Says Rubio
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Washington is expecting a response from Iran today (Friday)
Airlines Assure Fuel Stability as Cathay Trims Surcharges
British Airways: "Let me be clear on fuel availability: we are not currently seeing jet fuel interruptions and we do not expect supply issues this summer" And Cathay Pacific says it will cut fuel surchanges from mid-May
US Confirms Iranian Shadow Fleet Tanker Detained Under Sanctions
Note the oil tanker Iranian media just said Tehran detained is under US sanctions and belongs to the Iranian own dark fleet. "The Ocean Koi has operated as part of the Iranian shadow fleet since at least 2020," according to...
China’s Covert Oil Import Cuts Cap Prices, Flatten Differentials
COLUMN: China is quietly slashing oil imports, an invisible hand that's rebalancing the market in the middle of the Hormuz closure. (The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also triggered a collapse in physical differentials) @Opinion https://t.co/GND1uXtbwV
Iran, U.S. Mulling One‑Page Plan to Reopen Hormuz
NYT: Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. https://t.co/X7quMi0g38
US‑Iran Conflict Affects 20% LNG, Just 3% of Global Gas
Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "While 20% of the world's LNG is impacted [by US-Iran war], that equals to only 3% of the world's natural gas." (An important point that's often overlooked)
Shell CEO Warns Prolonged Recovery After Hormuz Closure
Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "The journey back [from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz" will be a long one."
Japan Dispatches Senior Minister with PM’s Five‑point Proposal to ADNOC
Japan sent a senior minister for talks with the CEO of ADNOC, with a personal letter from the Prime Minister containing 5 proposals. No details on the proposals.
Oil Bulls Claim Both Paper and Physical Markets Mispriced
The bullish side of the oil street has gone from "the paper market is wrong" to "the physical market is also wrong."
Shell Beats Estimates, Slashes Quarterly Buyback to $3B
BIG OIL 1Q EARNINGS: As everyone else among the majors, Shell also reports quarterly earnings above expectations on the back of high oil/gas prices. But the big news is that Shell has cut is buyback from $3.5 billion in the previous...
Iran's Tollbooth Threatens Free Passage Through Strait
Mmmmm, "...the restoration of normal passage..." shouldn't include Tehran installing a tollbooth in the strait to determine who can and cannot cross.
US Refiners Ramp up Jet Fuel to Meet Shortage
CHART OF THE DAY: US refiners are going gangbusters trying to solve the global jet-fuel shortage (and to cash in record high margins). The chart shows seasonal jet-fuel output from 2000-to-date (2026 is top line in blue). The bottom outliers are...
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Hinges on Immediate MOU Deal
According to the @Axios report, the Strait of Hormuz would only re-open "gradually" during a 30-day period of negotiations *if* an initial deal on a single page memorandum of understanding can be achieved in the next few hours/days. https://t.co/Ak6nBF0FRK
Norway Revives Old North Sea Fields, Supplies Germany and UK
Norway approves the re-development of three North Sea oil-and-gas fields that were closed ~30 years ago. After redeveloping, the fields will pump gas and light oil. The gas will be sent to Germany and the light oil to (irony of the...
US Gas Prices Break $4.5 per Gallon Mark
For the first time since 2022, US gasoline average retail price tops $4.5 per gallon.
Trump Pauses “Project Freedom” To Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Just 48 hours since its launch, President Trump says that the “Project Freedom” to unilaterally re-open the Strait of Hormuz would be “paused for a short period.” https://t.co/kIxkVDi3FC
Trump’s Project Freedom Risks Bypassing Iran’s Strait
VIDEO COLUMN: Can President Trump’s new ‘Project Freedom’ unblock the Strait of Hormuz? I take a look at his high-risk, high-reward shipping plan, trying to circumvent Iran’s grip on the crucial waterway. @Opinion https://t.co/u6if9l4171
Physical Oil Premiums Collapse as Brent Steadies Near $115
Counterintuitive perhaps, but the physical oil market appears to be calming. Dated Brent is hovering at ~$115 a barrel, and physical differentials have narrowed massively, with grades offered at ~$3 a barrel premium to the benchmark vs the ~$30 a...
Global Oil Liftings Rebound to Pre‑war Levels.
CHART OF THE DAY: Impressive chart via @Vortexa. On a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have **recovered to their pre-war level** due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. (Of course, that's helped by massive stock...
Project Freedom only Clears Outbound Tankers, Not Two‑way Flow
Project Freedom (the new US attempt to unblock the strait) is all about getting oil tankers out. So far, no indication the US is even contemplating a two-way traffic, with tankers going into the Persian Gulf. The later is a...
Diversified Energy Mix Calms Europe's 2026 Power Market
COLUMN: Ruinously high electricity bills became the defining image of Europe's energy crisis in 2022. So what's different this time? Thanks to nuclear, hydropower, solar, and better grids, European lectricity markets are calmer in 2026. @Opinion https://t.co/Ve1F7kIrNc
Iran's New Toll Lanes Redraw Strait of Hormuz Navigation
MAP OF THE DAY: Based on the information disclosed by the US (via @UK_MTO), I have drawn this Strait of Hormuz map. 🔴 Old route: Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS). ☠️Mines 🔵 New mandated Iranian shipping lanes (tollbooth) 🟢 New US Navy route:...
DiamondBack Ramps up Output; Shale Reacts to $80 Oil
DiamondBack Energy, one of the top US shale companies, says it will bring "incremental barrels to the market inmediately." US shale can not offset the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the idea that companies wouldn't react to >$80...
Bessent Predicts Oil Abundance, Timeline Remains Unclear
"I'm confident on the other side of this the world's going to be awash in oil." — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The question is how far away is the other side?
US Reopens Hormuz, Concedes Blockade Failed to Pressure Iran
The push to re-open the Strait of Hormuz today, with two US warship crossing it and two US-flagged merchant vessels, signals the White House realises it can not keep waiting for the blockade to force Iran into the negotiation table. Effectively,...
Trump Pledges US to Guide Neutral Ships Out of Gulf
President Trump said the US will begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf starting Monday. “This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran.” https://t.co/zfLjXmuuZ6