US Oil Production Hits Record High Amid Hormuz Blockade
CHART OF THE DAY: The barrel of last resort. US total crude oil and refined petroleum products have surged to an all-time high of >12.7 million b/d. (And further highs are likely over the next few weeks as everyone turns to America amid the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz) https://t.co/zjGGCGaqLc
Center-Left Reconsiders Fossil Fuels, Embraces “Woke” Drilling
COLUMN: Even before the US-Iran war, some on the center-left were rethinking their stance on fossil fuels. Can oil drilling be woke again? Yes, it can. I talked to Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson about "all-the-above" energy policy. @Opinion https://t.co/Aaj3jwJxde
Iran Can Hold Hormuz Longer; US Strikes Won’t Spark Crisis
Seven weeks later, many taboos broken: 1) Iran can’t block the Strait of Hormuz. Yes, it can, and for far longer than the oil market thought it would be possible. 2) If the US attacks, an energy crisis follows. Sure, gasoline...
IMF Adds Olive Oil to Its Commodity Basket.
I just realized the IMF has expanded the basket of commodities it tracks, adding olive oil (among others). I think my job is done here.
European Gas Prices Plunge to 7‑Week Low Amid Oversupply
CHART OF THE DAY: European natural gas benchmark prices (TTF) fall to 7-week low. Current prices are about the same as in late-January, when I don’t remember anyone in Brussels (or Frankfurt) talking about a crisis and/or inflation problem. LNG market...
European Gas Hits Lowest Since War Began
European natural gas prices are heading toward their lowest settlement since the war started (Feb 28), currently trading at €43 per MWh (that's ~$15 per mBtu). The European gas benchmark TTF is now **lower** than it was in late January...
Lagarde Reverses Stance: Europe Not Epicenter of Iran War Fallout
Lagarde: Europe NOT at epicenter of Iran war fallout. That's quite a turnaround from the Mar. 26 interview with The Economist, when she said: “We are facing a real shock…probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.”
Canada Pauses Fuel Tax, Cutting Gas Price 10¢ per Litre
After Germany, here it comes Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will suspend a fuel excise tax until Labor Day weekend. The measure will lower gasoline prices by 10 Canadian cents per liter, and diesel by 4 Canadian cents.
Blockade Forces Iran‑linked Tankers to Abort Hormuz Passage
Some of the Iran-linked oil / refined products tankers that attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz have either stopped or performed U-turns. The blockade, so far, appears effective. Remember, the vessels are not stopped in the middle of the strait,...
Iranian Bulkers Mask Iran Trips with “PGPORT” AIS Label
"PGPORT" Several Iranian ships (mostly bulkers) signaling a new destination on their AIS, as "PGPORT" (Persian Gulf Port) rather than declaring that they are going, as it's very likely, to Iran. Next, I bet: "PGFORORDERS."
US Hormuz Blockade Targets China as Much as Iran
COLUMN: The US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is as much about putting pressure on China as punishing Iran. "If Beijing has more at stake, perhaps it will put pressure on Tehran to negotiate, or so the theory goes." @Opinion #IranWar https://t.co/qhyUnXTly4
BP Predicts Exceptional Q1 Oil Trading Profits
Someone made money in 1Q: “The oil trading result is expected to be exceptional” — BP
S&P 500 Climbs Above Pre‑war Level
The S&P500 is now higher than it was on Feb. 27, the last trading day before the US and Israel started the war against Iran.
Oil Demand Collapse in SW & SE Asia Underestimated
We are probably underestimating the amount of oil demand destruction already ongoing in South-West and South-East Asia.
Iran Faces Imminent Well Shutdowns, Negotiations Uncertain
Looking at the limited empty oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf, plus Tehran’s onshore storage, Iran will need to shut in wells in 10-15 days (the same process its neighbours faced 5-6 weeks ago). Would that prompt Iran to change...
Energy Markets Stay Calm Amid Third Gulf War Lull
We're in the "no-fighting, no-peace, and no-oil" phase of the Third Gulf War. The energy market remains incredibly sanguine: despite Monday's rally, oil and European natural gas prices are below a week ago.
Satellite Shows Iran Loading Multiple Oil Tankers at Kharg
PHOTO OF THE DAY: Fog of war over Kharg Island (literally). Iran was loading two oil tankers on Saturday (April 11th) as seen on this @CopernicusEU Sentinel 2 🛰️ satellite picture. Another tanker is seen near the jetty, plus another two...
Iran Says US Demands Exceed Its Wartime Gains
“… Iran sees American demands as reaching far beyond what the United States achieved in war…” — via @nytimes https://t.co/OIhockFYdU
From Sanctions Relief to Blockade in Three Weeks
I’m old enough to remember when the Trump administration eased US sanctions on Iranian oil. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time....
U.S. to Block All Iranian Port Shipping Monday
U.S. says will start blockading all maritime traffic from Iranian ports (both in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman) from Monday, April 13, at 10am Eastern Time.
Saudi Summons Iraqi Envoy over Cross‑border Oil Attacks
Saudi Arabia summoned the Iraqi ambassador in Riyadh, saying that some of the most recent attacks against the kingdom were launched "from Iraqi territory." (KSA likely means some of the attacks during the night of April 7-8 that targeted Saudi oil...
Key US Maritime Dilemmas in Gulf and Red Sea
Three questions: 1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop? 2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb? 3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers...
Vitol’s Star Trader Loses Hundreds of Millions in Iran War
A team at Vitol led by a star trader took a several hundred million dollar hit early in the Iran war after bets in the oil market went awry, people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/wVuSf1Bx1e
VLCC Joins Three Tankers in Iran‑marked Hormuz Lanes
On top of the 3 oil supertankers that exited the Strait of Hormuz today, another VLCC is crossing it (half-way right now) into the Persian Gulf (in ballast, heading toward Iraq to pick up a cargo for Vietnam). All the...
Easter Week Triggers Broad Energy Price Collapse
Third Gulf War — energy impact: (week-on-week; Apr 2 to Apr 9 due to Easter) Dated Brent oil: ⬇️ -10.9% (physical,no futures) WTI crude oil: ⬇️ -13.4% TTF EU nat gas: ...
Pentagon Launches Mine‑Clearance Mission in Strait of Hormuz
Pentagon says it has started a mining clearance mission in the Strait of Hormuz. “Two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers conducted operations,” it said
Horm
VIDEO COLUMN (2): The Hormuz question. What's happening in the world's most important oil and LNG chokepoint? Let me explain the situation in the strait, and how its shipping lines (and status) are changing, perhaps for ever. @Opinion #Hormuz #IranWar ...
2026 European Gas Shock Pales Beside 2022 Crisis
CHART OF THE DAY: The European natural gas crisis of 2022 vs the 2026 (so far) mini-shock. The chart starts in July (both for 2021 and 2025) and tracks prices over 2022 and YTD 2026. Of course, full caveat: the Persian...
European Gas and Power Prices Slide to One-Month Lows
European wholesale natural gas (TTF) and power prices (Germany) are heading toward a 1-month low. The German 1-year forward electricity contract is now at the same level it was back in November. Meanwhile, TTF gas is at the level it...
Day 3 Ceasefire Holds: Hormuz Stays Still
Day 3 of the ceasefire: no movement in Hormuz (But the fragile truce seems to be holding on the ground, air and sea, despite sporadic violations, with not major attacks by either Iran or the US)
Wheat and Rice Prices Slip Below Pre‑War Levels
Food shock? Food crisis? Well, the price of the world’s most important staples for food security (wheat and rice) is now below pre-war levels. From Feb 27, wheat 🥖 is down ~1% while rice 🍚 is down ~2%. And yes,...
Trump Repeatedly Pledges Uninterrupted U.S. Oil Flow
🗓️ Trump on April 9th: "... Very soon, crude will beging moving..." 🗓️ Trump on March 3rd: "... No matter what, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy..."
Physical Brent Market Stays Robust; Prompt Oil Premiums Soar
The physical Brent market remains very, very strong, even if Dated Brent has come off from its all-time high reached on Tuesday (down around $15). Physical premia for prompt oil (or as my colleague @AlaricN calls it: “ASAP barrels”) are...
Iran, US Escalate Tensions Ahead of Ceasefire Talks
Both Tehran and Washington are upping the ante ahead of the ceasefire talks over the weekend. But raising the stakes increases the miscalculation risk: “We will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage,” Iranian...
US Natural Gas Prices Drop to 18‑Month Low
In the middle of what some have described as the worst energy crisis ever (worst than 1973+1979+2022 combined), let me tell you that US natural gas prices are falling toward a 18-month low of $2.6 per mBtu. (And yes, North...
Japan's Oil Outlook Improves, but SPR Usage Persists
Japan updates on its oil situation (And it looks better that I had expected; but note that the country is signalling continues use of its SPR)
Mexico's Climate‑scientist President Backs Controversial Shale Gas
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist by training, makes a policy U-turn, now backing the development of shale gas deposits in her country (which means fracking, even if she avoided using that word — a taboo in Mexico —...
ASAP Oil Prices Surge to Record Highs
Very good short note from my colleague @alexlongley1 about why the price of what he rightly calls "ASAP" oil barrels is going throughout the roof https://t.co/6dpWmdpJlG
Lebanon Holds Ceasefire Fate, Tehran Exploits Excuse
Lebanon will make or break the ceasefire. (But also it is a convenient excuse for Tehran)
UAE Oil Chief Calls Hormuz Closure “Control, Not Passage”
UAE senior oil official Sultan Al Jaber denounces the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. “Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” “Conditional passage is not passage. It is control by another name,” he says. https://t.co/TFczKBO4kk
Ceasefire Holds, Yet Hormuz Shipping Remains Stalled
The good news: attacks have come down markedly (ex Lebanon), and the fragile ceasefire seems to be holding. The bad news: so far, almost no movement of ships in-and-out of the Strait of Hormuz. Several Chinese oil tankers have pre-positioned to...
US Vice President Vance Leads First US‑Iran Talks in Islamabad
The first round of US-Iran talks will take place Saturday in Islamabad, with the US negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance, the White House said.
Beef Prices Hit Record High, Adding to Inflation
President Trump's other inflation headache: beef. While everyone is rightly focused on gasoline and oil amid US-Iran war, the meat market isn't giving a respite. Live cattle wholesale prices in Chicago have reached a new all-time high, surpassing last October's peak....
Fertilizer Price Surge Hits Government Budgets, Not Food Security
The spike in fertiliser costs is not a food security problem in many nations (and particularly, in developing Asian countries). Instead, it's a fiscal shock problem for the governments subsidizing their consumption.
Israeli Lebanon Attacks Threaten Ceasefire, Stall US‑Iran Talks
So far, proving rather difficult for the White House. Israeli attacks on Lebanon may derail the whole ceasefire process even before any US-Iran direct talks can start.
Hormuz Loses Relevance as Rivals Rush Pipeline Bypasses
COLUMN: No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change. But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more...
2026 Energy Shock Peaks Far Below Past Records
The scorecard of the (so far) 2026 energy shock: (Peak price set during US-Iran war Feb 28-Apr 7 vs all-time high; in nominal terms) ⛽️ Brent oil: ~19% below 2008 peak 🔥 TTF nat gas: ~79% below 2022 peak 🔌 German power: ~89% below...
US Treasury Faces Deadline on Russian, Iranian Oil Waivers
The US has to answer some questions: Does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Russian oil sales? (the general license expires on Sunday, Apr 11) And more politically charged, does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Iranian oil sales?...
IMO Seeks Mechanism to Secure Hormuz Ship Transit
IMO sec-gen: "I am already working with the relevant parties to implement an **appropriate mechanism** to ensure the safe transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The priority now is to ensure an evacuation that guarantees the safety of...
Energy Prices Plunge Despite Uncertain Hormuz Reopening
Brent crude oil: -15% TTF nat gas: -18% German power: -5% (and below pre-war) Asian coal: -1% (And yes, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to actually reopen, and we don’t know for sure what the ceasefire means in practical terms for SoH energy...