Italy May Postpone Coal Plant Shutdowns Until 2038
Italy mulls delaying the closure of all its coal-fired power stations until 2038 (~15 years later than previously expected) https://t.co/qK3WeCnJoP
War‑Driven Oil Shortage Forces Demand Destruction
COLUMN: Five weeks into the Third Gulf War, the math of oil-barrel counting is intractable: The world is short of the black stuff. Enter demand destruction. @Opinion https://t.co/Y2DPUcHM8s
US Gas Prices Stay Low, Softening Energy Shock Impact
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Oil Shipments Surge Across Gulf Despite US‑Iran War
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: Oil loadings across the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, and Red Sea during the US-Iran war. From top left clockwise: Fujairah single point mooring (March 28); Kharg island (March 27); Yanbu (March 24); and Al Muajjiz (March...
Pakistan Hosts Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian Ministers to Mediate US‑Iran Tensions
The foreign affairs ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are gathering in Islamabad today for urgent talks as they try to mediate between the US and Iran.
Hormuz Oil Flow Down 40%, Now Mostly Crude
Pre-war Strait of Hormuz flow (crude + products): ~20m b/d. My updated flow assumptions: Iran: ~1.5m b/d (SoH) UAE: ~1.0m b/d (Fujairah above pre-war) KSA: ~5.0m b/d (Yanbu above pre-war) Plus ~1.0m b/d (Non-Iranian SoH tankers) Plus >2.0m...
Houthis Threaten Bab Al-Mandeb, Risking Saudi Pipeline Bypass
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Thailand Secures Safe Strait of Hormuz Passage for Tankers
Thailand has reached a deal with Iran to allow Thai tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said...
Supply Disruptions Reshape Oil, Gas Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions
PODCAST: What’s next for oil, natural gas and the U.S.-Iran war? A great pleasure to join a special edition of the #ColumbiaEnergyExchange podcast with host @JasonBordoff to discuss how supply disruptions are reverberating across the industry. 🎧Listen now: https://t.co/Nfa3nQ6UWm
U.S. Gas Prices Plunge: Permian Negative
While the world panics about the loss of Qatari LNG, your reminder that nat gas prices in the Permian (Waha hub) had been negative for 35 consecutive trading days — and counting. And that Henry Hub is at ~$3 per...
Treasury Claims Ample Oil, IEA Taps Strategic Reserves
“The oil market is well-supplied” — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (… that’s quite a statement after the International Energy Agency had to make the largest ever use of his member’s strategic petroleum reserves…)
Europe May Abandon 2050 Net‑zero, Says German Minister
A few weeks ago, I published an @Opinion column arguing that net-zero by 2050 was, effectively, dead. At @CERAWeek in Houston this week, Germany's minister for energy and economy said Europe should allow itself to miss its mid-century net-zero goal....
Iran Vows Continued Resistance, Rejects Negotiations, Claims Security Shield
"At present, our policy is the continuation of resistance", Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state TV. “We do not intend to negotiate.” “In this war, we showed the world that no one can provoke the Islamic Republic, and in fact...
Oman/Dubai Crude Plunges $45, Defying Brent Rally
CHART OF THE DAY: The idea was that Brent/WTI was going to catch up higher towards where Oman/Dubai crude was trading (>$150 a barrel) Instead, we are witnessing Oman/Dubai crude plunging >$45 a barrel in a single day to ~$110 a...
Iran Vows to End War on Its Own Terms
Iran state-owned TV says that Tehran will end the war at a time of its own choosing. Islamic Republic won’t allow Trump to dictate end of conflict, it says
White House Wins Jawboning, yet Oil Prices Defy Expectations
The White House is (truly) winning the oil jawboning battle against Tehran — still to be seen if Trump would win the physical oil market war. But to see Brent trading at sub-$100 a barrel (and WTI below $90) after...
Germany Prioritizes Energy Affordability and Security
German Energy Minister Katherina Reiche: “Energy affordability and security have to come to the front.” #CERAWeek
Brent Crude Slides Below $100, Still Above Pre‑crisis Levels
CHART OF THE DAY: Brent crude oil has settled today below $100 a barrel (at $99.94 a barrel). As the chart shows, still way higher than pre-crisis levels, but also well below the peak reached during the early days of...
Iran Discovers Strait of Hormuz Leverage Is Unreliable
As with its nuclear program, Iran can not unlearnt new knowledge. And Tehran has learnt lots in the last 4 weeks. Iran assumed the Strait of Hormuz gave it a lever. But its effectiveness was unproven, and it didn’t know...
Anticipating Launch of TAHCO Oil Control Venture
I’m looking forward to the official launch of the “Trump Ayatollah Hormuz Control for Oil” joint-venture. Otherwise known as as the TAHCO.
Sultan Al Jaber’s CERAWeek Speech Highlights Energy Transition
Worth to read the speech that Sultan al Jaber, the CEO of UAE-state owned oil giant ADNOC, just delivered at CERAWeek (by video conference for obvious reasons). https://t.co/ATookvzJEA
Physical Oil Scarcity Outpaces Futures Pricing, Says Chevron CEO
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the physical oil market is tighter than the financial oil market is reflecting, particularly for refined products. The scarcity, particularly in Asia, is “not fully priced in the oil futures curve,” he says. #CERAWeek
U.S. Oil Production Likely Plateaued, Growth Hinges on Prices
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says that U.S. oil production probably reached a “plateau” over the last 6 months or so — too early to say whether growth would re-start as it would depend whether current prices stay or not.
US SPR Release Targets Up to 3 Million Barrels Daily
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US flow rate from the SPR exchange would amount to be 1.0-1.5m b/d and says the total IEA release would come close to 3m b/d. (Those are the first flow rates estimates publicly discussed...
Thailand Revives Mothballed Coal Plants, Curbing LNG Prices
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. https://t.co/qqyd5NrZQ8
Capturing Kharg Island Won’t Halt Iran’s Oil Flow
KHARG ISLAND — a thread: Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iran’s entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough. 🧵1/10 @Opinion FREE-TO-READ: https://t.co/ZOYtq3KESE https://t.co/xtLBqPShB6
Satellite Shows Iran Exporting Oil with US Backing
Iran’s Kharg Island as seen **today** by the @CopernicusEU Sentinel-2 satellite. Iran is loading multiple tankers, exporting oil and making $$$ — now, with the help of the White House. The idea that Trump admin is using Iranian oil barrels...
Iran Vows to Strike Regional Energy Infrastructure After Trump Ultimatum
Iran responds to Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum: “… the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed…”
Iran Rakes $2.5B From Oil Amid War
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
US Ultimatum on Hormuz Contradicts Its Own Disuse
From almost done, followed by close to winding down -- to a 48-hours ultimatum to Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz that the US doesn't use, and in any case, it would be very easy to re-open even by...
Iran's Pre‑War Oil Output Peaks, Boosting Condensates for Asia
CHART OF THE DAY: Despite sanctions, ahead of the war, Iran's total oil production had hit a 46-year high. Although most of the attention is on crude, Iran has focused in expanding its output of condensates and natural gas liquids —...
Treasury's “Stranded” Claim Exaggerated; Most Iranian Oil Headed to China
US Treasury says there are 140 million barrels of Iranian oil "stranded" on the water. That's misleading -- if not false. There're about 100 million barrels of Iranian oil on their way to China, and probably another 40 million on...
US Loans 45M Barrels, Far Below 86M Offer
US loans ~45 millions barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — significantly fewer barrels than the 86 million the government offered as part of the SPR “exchange” first tranche.
Georgia Launches First U.S. Fuel Tax Holiday Amid Price Surge
Georgia becomes the first U.S. state to declare a fuel tax holiday as gasoline and diesel prices surge in the back of the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran. Georgia will waive for 60 days a 33 ¢ per gallon tax on...
Boxer Won't Reach Gulf Until Mid‑April, Oil Delay
Assuming the USS Boxer is heading to the Middle East, and considering that she only left San Diego two days ago, she won't be near the Persian Gulf until mid-April. If the reinforcements are intended to reopen the Strait of...
IEA's Demand Plan Ignores LNG, Sidesteps Coal
Better late than never: IEA has released today a report with demand side measures to address the oil shortage. Including work-from-home, lower speed in highways, etc... Link here: https://t.co/MXt0hEQ9Sx Unfortunatelly, the IEA does not addresses LNG (so it sidesteps coal).
Sea‑based Oil Reserves Dwindling, Iran Holds One‑third
This is a very important story: “…The amount of oil stored at sea — a vital buffer for markets — is running down fast…” About 1/3 of what’s left is Iranian. https://t.co/zS7v0338Ay
Netanyahu Pledges No More Iranian Oil Strikes, Hopes Quicker Peace
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has joined Trump in jawboning the energy market. In a press conference, he said that Israel won't attack anymore oil and gas targets in Iran, and also indicated that the war would be over faster...
QatarEnergy Details Overnight Damage to GTL Plant
Qatar state-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy has published a statement detailing the overnight damage, providing more granularity (particularly around the damage of the GTL plant). https://t.co/MMZHWkvGoQ
New US Sanctions Tweak Narrower than March Oil Relief
I deleted a previous tweet about the easing of US Russian oil sanctions, as the relaxation already covered petroleum products since March 12. The changes announced today are narrower.
Trump’s Oil Price Stunt Ignores Rising Fuel Costs
COLUMN: Trump has seemingly turned WTI oil into a referendum on his war against Iran: more than $100 👎; less than $100 👍 But WTI isn't what matters for America's Main Street: refined petroleum products do -- and prices are rising...
US, Allies Push De‑Escalation as Iran Escalates; Hormuz Closed
The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the...
Energy Market Overestimates Absorption Amid Modest Brent Rise
Fascinating to see where Brent and TTF are trading right now after the last 24 hours of attacks and counter attacks. Brent is up a mere 3%, and TTF is lower than at the peak on Tuesday March 3rd. The...
Iran Signals Temporary Halt to Energy Facility Attacks
Put the war-of-wards, and it reads as if the Iranians are on board on a tacit understanding that, for now, there won't be more attacks on energy infraestructure. We shall see if this hold. I would imagine it would do...
VP Meets Oil Lobby, Could Curb White House War Push
US Vice President Vance plus other senior officials are meeting with the American oil industry today (at the API hq, rather than at the White House). It would be ironic if the US oil lobby was the one which put...
Iranian Attack Knocks 17% of QatarEnergy LNG Offline
QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. https://t.co/LWYkomhG8G
Treasury Secretary Hints at Unsanctioning Iranian Oil, Second SPR Release
What US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told @FoxBusiness about unsanctioning Iranian barrels -- and a potential 2nd SPR release. (I look forward to see how KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait feel about unsanctioning Iranian oil barrels) https://t.co/buyI81abII
Asia's LNG Shortage Revives Coal as Primary Fuel
MUST READ: Coal remains king — even in 2026. "... Across Asia, a sharp drop in liquefied natural gas supplies is pushing major importers back toward coal, undermining LNG’s long-held role as a stable energy anchor..." https://t.co/MZqvZYa8RD
Saudi Crude Loadings Persist Despite Red Sea Attack Rumors
Lots of chatter in the oil market about whether a Saudi refinery in the Red Sea was attacked or not. One thing, however, appears clear: crude loadings at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz continue as normal, with 4 tankers getting their...