Trump Claims Iran Clearing Hormuz Sea Mines
US President Donald Trump says Iran is "removing" all sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz
Energy Prices Slide 8‑12% Across Oil and Gas
Crude oil, refined products, natural gas down 8%-12% (yeah, yeah, I hear you: nothing is moving yet, and in the physical market diffs remain sky high, and so on and so forth...)
Energy Crises Won’t Stall U.S. Power Anymore
Spot on from @JasonBordoff: "... Others should prepare for a world in which energy crises are less of a brake on American power than they once were..." https://t.co/Tq7YESRGHV
Europe Regrets Closing Refineries; Demand Must Precede Supply
Several European governments are now learning — the hard way — why letting most of their national oil refining capacity to close was, how to put it, a bit of a mistake. (Another example of why shapping demand first, rather...
Asia Reassesses LNG, Boosting Coal and Renewables
The future of LNG in Asia. Effectively, "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me." After the oil price shock of 2022 and 2026, the region is going to re-consider LNG to the benefit of coal...
China’s Crude Stockpiling Proved Prudent, Says Column
Last year, the oil market was preoccupied with a question: why China was stockpiling so much crude. I wrote an @Opinion column about it in Sept, and re-reading it ⤵️ now, I must admit that all makes sense: Beijing was...
China Sets Record Coal Output, Exceeds U.S. Annual Use
China's coal production reached in March its highest ever monthly level, according to official data. Beijing said it digged 440.62 million metric tons last month, up a tiny bit from the old peak of 440.58m a year ago. (For context, that's more...
Iran's Job and Inflation Data Drive Oil Analysis
The key known unknown (to me) to analyse oil is the true state of the Iranian economy: jobs and inflation. I hear lots of tales, but I have little confidence on any. Reporting from inside Iran is extremely difficult. Economic damage...
Coal Demand Chart Misleads by Excluding China
I do love when green campaigners produce a chart about coal demand trends with a tiny little footnote: (excludes China)
Stuck in US‑Iran Standoff: No Fighting, No Peace, No Oil
At risk of repeating myself, still in the "no-fighting, not-peace, and (certainly) no-oil" phase of the US-Iran war.
China Sets Record March Coal Power Output Amid Geopolitical Tensions
China posted a 4.4% y-on-y increase in coal-fired electricity generation in March (thermal generation). The data point is the highest ever seasonal (for a March month) coal-fired power generation. China can -- and it is -- doing an enormous flex in...
Europe’s Gas‑electricity Crisis Effectively over, Easing ECB/BoE Worries
For Europe, the energy “crisis” in natural gas and electricity is, essentially, over. Sure, it can re-start if the ceasefire collapses, and Iran were to attack Qatar. But as now, it’s gone. And, let’s be clear, it was never a threat to...
Iranian Oil Return Could Shift Energy Markets Soon
If the US and Iran reach a deal — a big if — it’s fair to assume Tehran gets sanctions relief. If that includes oil sales — another big, although likely, if — then in a few months the energy...
European Physical Oil Market Shows Tentative Easing, Brent Below $120
Tentative signs -- with a lot of emphasis on tentative-- of easing in the European physical oil market. Dated Brent is falling below $120, and lots of offer today on the key trading window (compared to overwhelming bids in...
European Wholesale Power Stabilizes at Pre‑war Levels
European wholesale power is back to pre-war levels. Germany 1-year forward is at ~€88 per MWh, almost at par with the 2025 annual average of €87.3 per MWh. French and Great Britain power prices have given up most of the gains...
US Oil Production Hits Record High Amid Hormuz Blockade
CHART OF THE DAY: The barrel of last resort. US total crude oil and refined petroleum products have surged to an all-time high of >12.7 million b/d. (And further highs are likely over the next few weeks as everyone turns...
Center-Left Reconsiders Fossil Fuels, Embraces “Woke” Drilling
COLUMN: Even before the US-Iran war, some on the center-left were rethinking their stance on fossil fuels. Can oil drilling be woke again? Yes, it can. I talked to Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson about "all-the-above" energy policy. @Opinion https://t.co/Aaj3jwJxde
Iran Can Hold Hormuz Longer; US Strikes Won’t Spark Crisis
Seven weeks later, many taboos broken: 1) Iran can’t block the Strait of Hormuz. Yes, it can, and for far longer than the oil market thought it would be possible. 2) If the US attacks, an energy crisis follows. Sure, gasoline...
IMF Adds Olive Oil to Its Commodity Basket.
I just realized the IMF has expanded the basket of commodities it tracks, adding olive oil (among others). I think my job is done here.
European Gas Prices Plunge to 7‑Week Low Amid Oversupply
CHART OF THE DAY: European natural gas benchmark prices (TTF) fall to 7-week low. Current prices are about the same as in late-January, when I don’t remember anyone in Brussels (or Frankfurt) talking about a crisis and/or inflation problem. LNG market...
European Gas Hits Lowest Since War Began
European natural gas prices are heading toward their lowest settlement since the war started (Feb 28), currently trading at €43 per MWh (that's ~$15 per mBtu). The European gas benchmark TTF is now **lower** than it was in late January...
Lagarde Reverses Stance: Europe Not Epicenter of Iran War Fallout
Lagarde: Europe NOT at epicenter of Iran war fallout. That's quite a turnaround from the Mar. 26 interview with The Economist, when she said: “We are facing a real shock…probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.”
Canada Pauses Fuel Tax, Cutting Gas Price 10¢ per Litre
After Germany, here it comes Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will suspend a fuel excise tax until Labor Day weekend. The measure will lower gasoline prices by 10 Canadian cents per liter, and diesel by 4 Canadian cents.
Blockade Forces Iran‑linked Tankers to Abort Hormuz Passage
Some of the Iran-linked oil / refined products tankers that attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz have either stopped or performed U-turns. The blockade, so far, appears effective. Remember, the vessels are not stopped in the middle of the strait,...
Iranian Bulkers Mask Iran Trips with “PGPORT” AIS Label
"PGPORT" Several Iranian ships (mostly bulkers) signaling a new destination on their AIS, as "PGPORT" (Persian Gulf Port) rather than declaring that they are going, as it's very likely, to Iran. Next, I bet: "PGFORORDERS."
US Hormuz Blockade Targets China as Much as Iran
COLUMN: The US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is as much about putting pressure on China as punishing Iran. "If Beijing has more at stake, perhaps it will put pressure on Tehran to negotiate, or so the theory goes." @Opinion #IranWar https://t.co/qhyUnXTly4
BP Predicts Exceptional Q1 Oil Trading Profits
Someone made money in 1Q: “The oil trading result is expected to be exceptional” — BP
S&P 500 Climbs Above Pre‑war Level
The S&P500 is now higher than it was on Feb. 27, the last trading day before the US and Israel started the war against Iran.
Oil Demand Collapse in SW & SE Asia Underestimated
We are probably underestimating the amount of oil demand destruction already ongoing in South-West and South-East Asia.
Iran Faces Imminent Well Shutdowns, Negotiations Uncertain
Looking at the limited empty oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf, plus Tehran’s onshore storage, Iran will need to shut in wells in 10-15 days (the same process its neighbours faced 5-6 weeks ago). Would that prompt Iran to change...
Energy Markets Stay Calm Amid Third Gulf War Lull
We're in the "no-fighting, no-peace, and no-oil" phase of the Third Gulf War. The energy market remains incredibly sanguine: despite Monday's rally, oil and European natural gas prices are below a week ago.
Satellite Shows Iran Loading Multiple Oil Tankers at Kharg
PHOTO OF THE DAY: Fog of war over Kharg Island (literally). Iran was loading two oil tankers on Saturday (April 11th) as seen on this @CopernicusEU Sentinel 2 🛰️ satellite picture. Another tanker is seen near the jetty, plus another two...
Iran Says US Demands Exceed Its Wartime Gains
“… Iran sees American demands as reaching far beyond what the United States achieved in war…” — via @nytimes https://t.co/OIhockFYdU
From Sanctions Relief to Blockade in Three Weeks
I’m old enough to remember when the Trump administration eased US sanctions on Iranian oil. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time....
U.S. to Block All Iranian Port Shipping Monday
U.S. says will start blockading all maritime traffic from Iranian ports (both in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman) from Monday, April 13, at 10am Eastern Time.
Saudi Summons Iraqi Envoy over Cross‑border Oil Attacks
Saudi Arabia summoned the Iraqi ambassador in Riyadh, saying that some of the most recent attacks against the kingdom were launched "from Iraqi territory." (KSA likely means some of the attacks during the night of April 7-8 that targeted Saudi oil...
Key US Maritime Dilemmas in Gulf and Red Sea
Three questions: 1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop? 2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb? 3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers...
Vitol’s Star Trader Loses Hundreds of Millions in Iran War
A team at Vitol led by a star trader took a several hundred million dollar hit early in the Iran war after bets in the oil market went awry, people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/wVuSf1Bx1e
VLCC Joins Three Tankers in Iran‑marked Hormuz Lanes
On top of the 3 oil supertankers that exited the Strait of Hormuz today, another VLCC is crossing it (half-way right now) into the Persian Gulf (in ballast, heading toward Iraq to pick up a cargo for Vietnam). All the...
Easter Week Triggers Broad Energy Price Collapse
Third Gulf War — energy impact: (week-on-week; Apr 2 to Apr 9 due to Easter) Dated Brent oil: ⬇️ -10.9% (physical,no futures) WTI crude oil: ⬇️ -13.4% TTF EU nat gas: ...
Pentagon Launches Mine‑Clearance Mission in Strait of Hormuz
Pentagon says it has started a mining clearance mission in the Strait of Hormuz. “Two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers conducted operations,” it said
Horm
VIDEO COLUMN (2): The Hormuz question. What's happening in the world's most important oil and LNG chokepoint? Let me explain the situation in the strait, and how its shipping lines (and status) are changing, perhaps for ever. @Opinion #Hormuz #IranWar ...
2026 European Gas Shock Pales Beside 2022 Crisis
CHART OF THE DAY: The European natural gas crisis of 2022 vs the 2026 (so far) mini-shock. The chart starts in July (both for 2021 and 2025) and tracks prices over 2022 and YTD 2026. Of course, full caveat: the Persian...
European Gas and Power Prices Slide to One-Month Lows
European wholesale natural gas (TTF) and power prices (Germany) are heading toward a 1-month low. The German 1-year forward electricity contract is now at the same level it was back in November. Meanwhile, TTF gas is at the level it...
Day 3 Ceasefire Holds: Hormuz Stays Still
Day 3 of the ceasefire: no movement in Hormuz (But the fragile truce seems to be holding on the ground, air and sea, despite sporadic violations, with not major attacks by either Iran or the US)
Wheat and Rice Prices Slip Below Pre‑War Levels
Food shock? Food crisis? Well, the price of the world’s most important staples for food security (wheat and rice) is now below pre-war levels. From Feb 27, wheat 🥖 is down ~1% while rice 🍚 is down ~2%. And yes,...
Trump Repeatedly Pledges Uninterrupted U.S. Oil Flow
🗓️ Trump on April 9th: "... Very soon, crude will beging moving..." 🗓️ Trump on March 3rd: "... No matter what, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy..."
Physical Brent Market Stays Robust; Prompt Oil Premiums Soar
The physical Brent market remains very, very strong, even if Dated Brent has come off from its all-time high reached on Tuesday (down around $15). Physical premia for prompt oil (or as my colleague @AlaricN calls it: “ASAP barrels”) are...
Iran, US Escalate Tensions Ahead of Ceasefire Talks
Both Tehran and Washington are upping the ante ahead of the ceasefire talks over the weekend. But raising the stakes increases the miscalculation risk: “We will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage,” Iranian...
US Natural Gas Prices Drop to 18‑Month Low
In the middle of what some have described as the worst energy crisis ever (worst than 1973+1979+2022 combined), let me tell you that US natural gas prices are falling toward a 18-month low of $2.6 per mBtu. (And yes, North...