Urban Apartment Build Slows, Suburban Rents Set to Outpace
Apartment construction is down everywhere but ESPECIALLY in/around downtown areas across the U.S. On a relative basis, we built far more apartments in urban areas than in the suburbs over the past 15 years. As a result, urban rents grew far less than suburban rents in the 2010s, 2.0% to 3.9% from 2013-19. But that could change in the next cycle. Why? Because the current market dynamics are far more challenging for urban development than for suburban development. Rents fell harder in the supply peak, and when interest rates shot up, that dinged values. Which means (on paper) a new development may cost more to build than what it's worth once it's completed. Urban land and construction also tends to be more expensive. To be sure, those challenges exist in the suburbs as well. Construction is down there, too. But in spots that didn't build quite as much and where rents haven't fallen quite as hard, developers are finding ways to value-engineer some projects to pencil out. But the real pivot is this: We could see supply/demand dynamics in urban areas that we haven't seen in 15+ years. And once demand catches up with the supply overhang from this cycle, we may see stronger urban rent growth than what we saw in most of the 2010s.
1971 REIT IPO Thrived Without Full‑Time Employees
The story of Terry Considine's first REIT IPO in 1971 is incredible: "The preliminary prospectus identified a particular risk that the company had no full-time employees, and would not until ... Mr. Constantine graduated from law school. So that notwithstanding that...
Former Solicitor General Calls ROAD Housing Act Unconstitutional
A former U.S. Solicitor General just put out a paper arguing that the ROAD to Housing Act is "constitutionally flawed thrice over." It's not an easy read, full of legalese, but boils down to three key arguments: 1) It violates the Constitution's...
Rent Control Still Shrinks Housing Supply Through Conversions, Decay
Excellent points as always from John. I would add, in long run, while rent control may have minimal impact on new construction when exempted, it's still supply killer via a) conversions to for-sale and b) aging/rotting of old apartments into obsolescence.
80‑Year‑Old Billionaire Still Launches New Apartment Venture
If you sold your business for $10 billion and were nearing 80 years old, would you hang up the cleats and enjoy retirement? If you say "yes," you are not Aimco/AIR founder Terry Considine, who is starting over again with his...
White House Report Calls for Faster, Less-Regulated Housing Build
The White House CEA just released their 2026 Economic Report, and there's an excellent section on housing. Cliff's Notes version: Make it a lot easier and quicker to build a lot more housing of all types. Very YIMBY message, and details...
Apartment Development Remains Fragmented; No 8k+ Builder Since 2019
For the first time since 2019, no single apartment developer started 8k+ units last year, according to the newly released NMHC Top 25 developers list. Greystar still ranked No. 1 with 7.2k units, amounting to 1.9% of all U.S. apartment starts...
U.S. Apartment Industry Remains Highly Fragmented, No Dominant Owner
Name one major U.S. industry where the biggest players have <0.5% market share. The apartment business has gotta be the most fragmented major industry, is it not? Big names, sure, but no behemoth owners. (Analysis from today's release of the NMHC Top...
Morgan Properties Surges to #2, Greystar Holds Top Spot
The 2026 NMHC Top 50 rankings are out. Owners: Morgan Properties leapfrogs MAA into No. 2 spot, adding 14k units to reach 110k. Greystar remains No. 1, but was net seller last year. https://t.co/6UNTlK2tUF
Apartment Supply Surge Ends, Rent Growth Stalls
It's official: The historic wave of new apartment supply is now in the rearview mirror. Completions in Q1'26 came in at one of the lowest levels in 7+ years, and will likely hover around these levels for a while --...
7‑Year Sell Rule Threatens Build‑to‑
I suspect whoever wrote Section 901 of the ROAD to Housing Act heard that many investors have 7-year holds, and so they added a requirement that investors must sell build-to-rent homes after 7 years. But it's so much more complex than...
March Rents Rise Modestly as Supply Overhang Dampens Growth
Apartment rents increased in March (the start of the leasing season), but more muted than normal. Demand remained solid despite the economic headwinds, but still playing catch up to the supply overhang from 2023-25 (biggest supply wave since 1970s). As CoStar's Grant...
Net Operating Income Depends on More Than Just Rent
NOI is what matters, and rent is obviously a big part of that but not the only part. Expenses, turnover, vacant days between leases, ancillary incomes, etc, all matter too.
Investors Shun BTR Projects Due to Seven‑year Resale Limit
More on the collapse of BTR construction: "Those investors are not investing right now because no one is going to invest in something that they have to sell in seven years… We’ve already stopped a lot of housing at a time...
Dean Weidner: Legendary Owner of 12th‑Largest U.S. Apartment Portfolio
Totally missed this news from a couple weeks ago. Dean Weidner was legend in the apartment business. His company ranks as 12th largest apartment owner in U.S. https://t.co/p7TLCLlI3o