Growth Index Sets Record 6‑Week Outperformance Over Low‑Vol
The S&P 500 Growth index has beaten the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index by more in the last 6 weeks than any other 6-week window on record. This doesn't mean the bull market has to end (look at 2020 and 2025), but you don't want to see Growth stuff chalking up March 2000 figures. https://t.co/mWA4K8mgll
Today's Gas Prices Feel Cheaper Than Past
At $4.52 per gallon, real-terms gasoline prices are no more expensive than most of our lives. We're not driving a 1979 Oldsmobile Cutlass. A 2025 Ford F-150 is not the same fuel economy as a 2008 F-150. And people earn...
Microsoft's CapEx Now Mirrors Heavy‑Industry Spending Levels
Microsoft having capital expenditures equal to 37% of its revenues would have been unthinkable a decade ago. This is supposed to be a software company, but these are numbers you see for an industrial company, or an oil & gas...
Staples Stumble in Eighth Volatility Cycle Since 1990
Bullish chart for Consumer Staples stocks. Seven rising vol cycles, seven times the Staples sector was victorious versus Consumer Discretionary. But in this, the eighth rising volatility cycle since 1990, yikes: no love for Staples. Maybe the love returns? https://t.co/MenhcpkhRl
Alphabet's 72× FCF Valuation Risks Stagnant Cash Flow
With a $4.67 trillion market cap, Alphabet trades for 72.4 times free cash flow. The capital expenditure ramp-up has been droning on since Covid, leaving FCF in sideways limbo for a couple years now. How long the market will give...
Philippines Dividend Yield Hits Record, JP Morgan to Index Bonds
The Philippines' stock market is so depressed that its dividend yield is back to Lehman collapse levels. At 3.22%, the country's dividend yield is now more than two percentage points higher than the US, marking a record in a multi-decade...
Gold, Powell, and Oil Shock Shape Portfolio Strategies
I was on Kitco today with @JeremySzafron. We talked gold, Powell, portfolio construction, and the dynamics of this oil shock. Great show, Jeremy. https://t.co/OikyF9Y4SE via @YouTube
Money Supply Growth Hits 3.5%, Far Below Historic Median
The collective money supply growth rate across the US, Japan and Eurozone is 3.5%, lower than 83% of all readings since 1997. The median is 4.9%. I don't want to minimize Hormuz, but as far as this chart is concerned,...
S&P Earnings Growth Likely Peaks 2028‑2030 After Rate Cut
Street consensus, S&P 500 earnings growth: 2026: +21.8% 2027: +14.8% Those are big, tough-to-achieve numbers. But look at the historic record. The S&P's earnings growth rate historically peaked 40 to 76 months after the first Fed rate cut. Yes, forty to seventy-six. Powell...
Copper at $6 Signals Economy’s Health Boost
Here comes "The Doctor," touching $6 again. They call it Doctor Copper because the metal's action diagnoses a sick or recovering economy. A nice 55.1 on ISM Manufacturing Production indicates the industrial sector has been taking its Vitamin (C)opper. https://t.co/BGqFYLIPUI
Oil Giants Post 2nd‑Worst 50‑Year Underperformance
Over the last 3 weeks, a basket of ExxonMobil, Chevron, Conoco, and Occidental Petroleum has witnessed its 2nd-worst underperformance vs the S&P 500 of the last half century. Collectively, the market has beaten these four by 26 percentage points since...
2028 S&P 500: Three Scenarios, Wide Outcome Range
I have mapped out a half dozen S&P 500 scenarios for yearend 2028, based on the 2027 earnings consensus. Granted, earnings can vary wildly from expectations, as can market psychology. If the Street gets it right on earnings, the super-bull...
Low‑Volatility Index Underperforms 17 Years, Cycle Uncertain
The S&P 500 Low Volatility Index's underperformance commenced 17 years ago. Let me say it again: seventeen years ago. The previous cycles were 9 years one way, then 10 years the other way. How long this factor can remain washed...
Money Supply Rising, Yet Far Below Past Inflation Peaks
It is tempting to become hyper-focused on oil, but don't take your eye off of money supply when assessing inflation dynamics. Though money supply growth is accelerating across the major economies, it remains materially lower than it was in previous...
Staple Food Stocks Lag S&P by 39% Annually
We are at a year 2000 performance extreme on basic supermarket staples companies relative to the S&P 500. A basket of Campbell's, General Mills, Clorox and Conagra has underperformed the S&P by 39 percentage points per year for the last...