Copper at $6 Signals Economy’s Health Boost
Here comes "The Doctor," touching $6 again. They call it Doctor Copper because the metal's action diagnoses a sick or recovering economy. A nice 55.1 on ISM Manufacturing Production indicates the industrial sector has been taking its Vitamin (C)opper. https://t.co/BGqFYLIPUI
Oil Giants Post 2nd‑Worst 50‑Year Underperformance
Over the last 3 weeks, a basket of ExxonMobil, Chevron, Conoco, and Occidental Petroleum has witnessed its 2nd-worst underperformance vs the S&P 500 of the last half century. Collectively, the market has beaten these four by 26 percentage points since...
2028 S&P 500: Three Scenarios, Wide Outcome Range
I have mapped out a half dozen S&P 500 scenarios for yearend 2028, based on the 2027 earnings consensus. Granted, earnings can vary wildly from expectations, as can market psychology. If the Street gets it right on earnings, the super-bull...
Low‑Volatility Index Underperforms 17 Years, Cycle Uncertain
The S&P 500 Low Volatility Index's underperformance commenced 17 years ago. Let me say it again: seventeen years ago. The previous cycles were 9 years one way, then 10 years the other way. How long this factor can remain washed...
Money Supply Rising, Yet Far Below Past Inflation Peaks
It is tempting to become hyper-focused on oil, but don't take your eye off of money supply when assessing inflation dynamics. Though money supply growth is accelerating across the major economies, it remains materially lower than it was in previous...
Staple Food Stocks Lag S&P by 39% Annually
We are at a year 2000 performance extreme on basic supermarket staples companies relative to the S&P 500. A basket of Campbell's, General Mills, Clorox and Conagra has underperformed the S&P by 39 percentage points per year for the last...
ISM Manufacturing Employment Signals Lower 2026 Recession Risk
The Polymarket recession odds for 2026 are 36%. I believe that is an overestimation. Consider the employment component of ISM Manufacturing. It bottomed nine reports ago, at 43.4, and is on the mend. This index often breaks below 40 for...
Dollar Gains Boost Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Materials
Sector work, 12/31/1989 - 3/31/2026. We find a strong relationship between US dollar direction and four specific sectors: 1) Discretionary 2) Energy 3) Industrials 4) Materials Not necessarily in that order. How to read the table: "Tallying all the months when the dollar index went up over...
Modern Trucks Get More Miles per Wage Hour
The oil "shock" in retail diesel is nothing of the sort. A heavy-duty truck can drive 42.3 miles on the amount of diesel that can be purchased with this country's average hourly wage of $32. In 2008, an hour of...
Quality Factor's Historic Underperformance Poised for Sharp Reversal
Try to remember that just 3 months ago we were in the middle of the most bizarre underperformance by the Quality factor this century. Almost 1999 on the performance gap. Historically, when this chart snapped, it snapped hard the other...
Ares Capital 17% Plunge Predicts Major S&P Drops
This chart is unique. Ares Capital, the BDC, has been clobbered, falling 17%. Previous dumps in ARCC saw dumps in the S&P 500 too. Other periods that saw ARCC fall 17% or more witnessed S&P declines of 9%, 28%, 22%,...
Manpower Employment Outlook Peaks at Highest Since 2022
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey just jumped to its highest level since Q3/2022. They surveyed 41,700 employers in 42 countries. https://t.co/rs7Dv4XiH6
Today's Wages Cut Gas‑cost Work Hours Dramatically
In coming days, if gasoline is $4, $5, $6 per gallon, you will want to remember this chart. It is how many hours you have to work to afford driving your car 10,000 miles, which is how much someone may...
Dr. Copper Rebounds as Manufacturing Finally Picks Up
"Dr. Copper" is seeking redemption. It usually moves hand-in-hand with the manufacturing data. That was not the case in 2023-2024, when it rose but manufacturing remained moribund. Notwithstanding the recent pullback, both are rising again. A promising chart, in my...
Just a Plain Chart—No Debate Needed
Here is a very normal chart that we shouldn't debate or scrutinize in any way. https://t.co/2F9rD46Rcq