
These claims, attributed to Trump by Nadia Schadlow, are false and can't be justified by calling them "different opinions" or based on "different assumptions." @ODNIgov & @iaeaorg both agreed Iran was abiding by the deal, allowing inspections, including military sites. https://t.co/77rtgxmb2a
We're now pretty sure this is a qanat, not an entry point for the UGF at Isfahan.

Unfortunately, that's EXACTLY what the video shows -- the interceptor heading right toward Sitra where the impact reportedly occurred. Red line is the approximate trajectory of the interceptor, white line is the point of view from the video. https://t.co/jvOPjH0Yme

I don't know who needs to hear this, but Tomahawk Block IV can dive vertically. https://t.co/rcP0BgLqGH
Nope, TLAMs use terrain contour matching which means it CAN'T come directly from over the water.
A good thread. One thing I would add -- we saw cranes and other heavy equipment at the tunnel entrances in late October 2025. I think its safe to assume Iran has had access to the material for months.
From the video and satellite images, the damage looks most like "(2) misidentification" to me, but an investigation is necessary.
Since people are rediscovering "clobbering" of cruise missiles, let me explain: Tomahawks use "terrain contour matching" (TERCOM) to find their way to targets. For reasons, about 1-2% of Tomahawks "clobber" -- get lost and fly into the ground --...

That's definitely the IRGC compound, looking north-ish. And that does look like a TLAM. https://t.co/zEGryMmIxG
There is basically zero chance the @iaeaorg goes commando, as it were. (10x the IAEA-UNCSOM tension in post-1991 Iraq. Disaster.) More likely is an Iraq Survey Group-like arrangement, which maybe includes some friendly former IAEA inspectors and consultants.
Again, because, at least implicitly, the aim is regime change and the theory is a new regime will solve the proliferation problem. It is not a wise strategy because these are foolish men.
I think one reason that many of us are skeptical that the regime in Tehran will fall with airpower alone is that the US also tried this in Iraq in 1991, as Operation Desert Storm transitioned into the no-fly zones...
“Their ability to exit and re-enter the Earth's atmosphere makes them incredibly difficult to intercept.” 👏All missiles fired on ballistic trajectories travel through space, including the Iranian ones.👏
"... one reason I am very reluctant to begin wars of choice without a clear strategy and goals."
A strike on the Assembly of Experts is the clearest statement that Israel's goal is regime change not counterproliferation. I will repeat what I said in June: the operation is a tactical success if the regime falls, a failure if...