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Jeffrey Lewis

Jeffrey Lewis

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NTI/MIIS scholar; nuclear deterrence, arms control, missile forces (OSINT).

Trump's Iran Claims Debunked: Deal Compliance Confirmed
Social•Mar 10, 2026

Trump's Iran Claims Debunked: Deal Compliance Confirmed

These claims, attributed to Trump by Nadia Schadlow, are false and can't be justified by calling them "different opinions" or based on "different assumptions." @ODNIgov & @iaeaorg both agreed Iran was abiding by the deal, allowing inspections, including military sites. https://t.co/77rtgxmb2a

By Jeffrey Lewis
Isfahan Site Identified as Qanat, Not UGF Entry
Social•Mar 10, 2026

Isfahan Site Identified as Qanat, Not UGF Entry

We're now pretty sure this is a qanat, not an entry point for the UGF at Isfahan.

By Jeffrey Lewis
Video Confirms Interceptor Heading Directly Toward Sitra Impact
Social•Mar 9, 2026

Video Confirms Interceptor Heading Directly Toward Sitra Impact

Unfortunately, that's EXACTLY what the video shows -- the interceptor heading right toward Sitra where the impact reportedly occurred. Red line is the approximate trajectory of the interceptor, white line is the point of view from the video. https://t.co/jvOPjH0Yme

By Jeffrey Lewis
Tomahawk Block IV Capable of Vertical Dive
Social•Mar 9, 2026

Tomahawk Block IV Capable of Vertical Dive

I don't know who needs to hear this, but Tomahawk Block IV can dive vertically. https://t.co/rcP0BgLqGH

By Jeffrey Lewis
TLAMs Require Land Launch; Cannot Fly Directly over Water
Social•Mar 9, 2026

TLAMs Require Land Launch; Cannot Fly Directly over Water

Nope, TLAMs use terrain contour matching which means it CAN'T come directly from over the water.

By Jeffrey Lewis
Iran Likely Accessed Tunnel Materials Months Earlier, Evidence Shows
Social•Mar 8, 2026

Iran Likely Accessed Tunnel Materials Months Earlier, Evidence Shows

A good thread. One thing I would add -- we saw cranes and other heavy equipment at the tunnel entrances in late October 2025. I think its safe to assume Iran has had access to the material for months.

By Jeffrey Lewis
Damage Likely Misidentification; Investigation Required
Social•Mar 8, 2026

Damage Likely Misidentification; Investigation Required

From the video and satellite images, the damage looks most like "(2) misidentification" to me, but an investigation is necessary.

By Jeffrey Lewis
1‑2% of Tomahawk Missiles Crash Due to TERCOM Errors
Social•Mar 8, 2026

1‑2% of Tomahawk Missiles Crash Due to TERCOM Errors

Since people are rediscovering "clobbering" of cruise missiles, let me explain: Tomahawks use "terrain contour matching" (TERCOM) to find their way to targets. For reasons, about 1-2% of Tomahawks "clobber" -- get lost and fly into the ground --...

By Jeffrey Lewis
IRGC Compound Spotted, Likely Tomahawk Missile Launch
Social•Mar 8, 2026

IRGC Compound Spotted, Likely Tomahawk Missile Launch

That's definitely the IRGC compound, looking north-ish. And that does look like a TLAM. https://t.co/zEGryMmIxG

By Jeffrey Lewis
IAEA Unlikely to Operate Solo; Joint Survey Likely
Social•Mar 8, 2026

IAEA Unlikely to Operate Solo; Joint Survey Likely

There is basically zero chance the @iaeaorg goes commando, as it were. (10x the IAEA-UNCSOM tension in post-1991 Iraq. Disaster.) More likely is an Iraq Survey Group-like arrangement, which maybe includes some friendly former IAEA inspectors and consultants.

By Jeffrey Lewis
Regime‑change Gamble Ignores Iran's Nuclear Reality
Social•Mar 7, 2026

Regime‑change Gamble Ignores Iran's Nuclear Reality

Again, because, at least implicitly, the aim is regime change and the theory is a new regime will solve the proliferation problem. It is not a wise strategy because these are foolish men.

By Jeffrey Lewis
Airpower Alone Can't Topple Regimes, History Shows
Social•Mar 6, 2026

Airpower Alone Can't Topple Regimes, History Shows

I think one reason that many of us are skeptical that the regime in Tehran will fall with airpower alone is that the US also tried this in Iraq in 1991, as Operation Desert Storm transitioned into the no-fly zones...

By Jeffrey Lewis
Ballistic Missiles Exit Space, Making Interception Nearly Impossible
Social•Mar 6, 2026

Ballistic Missiles Exit Space, Making Interception Nearly Impossible

“Their ability to exit and re-enter the Earth's atmosphere makes them incredibly difficult to intercept.” 👏All missiles fired on ballistic trajectories travel through space, including the Iranian ones.👏

By Jeffrey Lewis
Avoiding Wars Without Clear Strategy and Defined Goals
Social•Mar 4, 2026

Avoiding Wars Without Clear Strategy and Defined Goals

"... one reason I am very reluctant to begin wars of choice without a clear strategy and goals."

By Jeffrey Lewis
Israel's Strike Signals Regime‑change Goal, Not Counterproliferation
Social•Mar 3, 2026

Israel's Strike Signals Regime‑change Goal, Not Counterproliferation

A strike on the Assembly of Experts is the clearest statement that Israel's goal is regime change not counterproliferation. I will repeat what I said in June: the operation is a tactical success if the regime falls, a failure if...

By Jeffrey Lewis

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