F‑117 Downed, War Unchanged; Rescue Crew Now Priority
Serbia shot down an F-117 in 1999. That didn’t change the outcome of Allied Force. I hope the pilot and WSO are alive and can be extracted soon. Beyond that, it’s one aircraft.
IAEA, US Intel Say Iran Complied Before Trump Withdrew
None of this is true. The IAEA and the US intelligence community both assessed that Iran was complying with the JCPIOA when Trump walked away from the agreement.
JCPOA vs War: Opponents Push Early Conflict
Narrator: In fact, it was always a binary choice between the JCPOA and war. The people who opposed it were, in fact, warmongers who believed the sooner that war came, the better. https://t.co/Rbzw2uHkm7
Diagram Mislabels PrSM: Shows Liquid Engine, Not Solid
This exploded diagram appears to shows a liquid propellant rocket engine (two tanks, plus an engine); PrSM is a solid rocket motor. What gives? https://t.co/GvxUeeiaqs
Doctrine Promised Open Hormuz, yet We Closed It
“His national security doctrine is blunt about the essentials, protect the oil chokepoints, keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and safeguard global supply lines.” The Strait of Hormuz was open until the day we attacked.
Military Occupation Rarely Ensures Victory, History Shows
I see this sort of reasoning a lot. The problem with it is that it was also true of North Vietnam and yet Hanoi still prevailed. Of course, we can occupy Iran instead of just bombing it, but we did...
Iran's Missiles Can't Disrupt or Deter US‑Israeli Attacks
I suppose it depends on what purpose you believe Iran's ballistic missiles must serve. It does not appear that Iran's missiles are capable of either disrupting ongoing Israeli and US air campaign nor deterring further Israeli and US attack.
Respect Analytic Tradecraft Over Censorship Claims
This is being framed as censorship but it’s actually just prosaic advice for language relating to photo-interpretation. We just accused CENTCOM of PAC’ing a Bahraini neighborhood, but one still needs to respect analytic tradecraft.
Why the “Never Take
This is why I don't like the "never take anything off the table" chestnut. It was dumb with Hillary said it about nuclear weapons in Afghanistan; it's dumb now. (And no, I don't think he means it.)
Specify the Target; Attacking a Nuclear Plant Is Illegal
"Guess again" is an interesting answer when you could just state the target you have in mind and then affirm that targeting an operational nuclear power plant would be a crime.
Iranians May Soon Target Lucrative Data Center Assets
I wondered when the Iranians would get around to targeting data centers. They're pretty juicy, as potential targets go.
Targeting Active Nuclear Plant: Criminal and Foolish
This would seem to be advocating a military strike on an operating nuclear power plant. Apart from being criminal, it's also very stupid.
Patriot Missile Identified as Cause of Sitra Explosion
The team (@sam_lair, @DuitsmanMS, others) spent the last few weeks examining this video showing a U.S. Patriot launch in Bahrain. We're confident this interceptor was involved in the explosion over Sitra that damaged 60 residences and injured more than...
Two-Stage IRBM Likely Based on Zoljanah or Qaem
Two-stage is a helpful bit of data. Now more likely a two-stage IRBM derived from a solid SLV like the Zoljanah or Qaem-100/105.
Even Under Missile Fire, Wine Quality Matters
At 4,000+ km, I would happily sit in a lawn chair on the tarmac at Diego Garcia with a bottle of wine while Iran fired two conventionally-armed IRBMs at me. My only hesitation would be the quality of the...
SLVs Likely Designed Primarily as Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
This is very good, although I tend to think the SLVs were always designed with use as IRBMs in mind so I regard that as equally likely given the very long distances involved.
Khamenei’s Range Cap Stalled
Bremmer's framing is common but wrong. Instead: 1. Iran was developing an ICBM when 2. Khamenei imposed a 2,000-km range limit. 3. The programs shifted to space launch. 4. Khamenei lifted the restriction in October 2025 after the June attacks. 5. Now he's dead,...
Iran's Solid‑propellant SLVs Could Launch Sizable Payloads
While I can't rule out a low-payload stunt, Iran has several SLVs (including solid propellants) that could deliver a significant payload to these distances.
Iran's 2000 Km Range Is Political, Not Technical
This is misguided. Iran’s 2000 km “ceiling” was a voluntary political limit, not a technical one. Many of us spent the past several years explaining that Iran could quickly build IRBMs if it chose to do so. It’s not my...
Iran's Collapse Won’t Mirror Yemen’s Strategic Gains
Turning Iran into Yemen isn't the strategic victory some people may expect if Red Sea shipping is anything to go by.
Even CIA Staff Must Avoid Overanalyzing Low‑quality Video
The CIA is an amazing place staffed with very talented people, but “don’t over think a single poor-quality video” is like OSINT 101. Hard lessons.
PNE Creates Underground Explosion, Forming the SEDAN Crater
This is very, very funny--but also the way a PNE works is that one explodes the device underground to make a crater. That's what the SEDAN crater is. https://t.co/Nn2cliua8J
Four Launchers and AN/TPY-2 Radar Still in Korea
While the United States may have reallocated some interceptors from South Korea to the Middle East, as of March 12 there remain at least four launchers and the AN/TPY-2 radar on site. Lovely image from @planet. https://t.co/PJgsi28VXe
Analysts Favor Deterrence Over Costly, Unpredictable War
Generally speaking, serious analysts are sober about the cost, unpredictability, and hard-to-anticipate second-order effects of military action, as well as the relatively successful track record of deterrence in mitigating risks from proliferation.
Trump's Iran Claims Debunked: Deal Compliance Confirmed
These claims, attributed to Trump by Nadia Schadlow, are false and can't be justified by calling them "different opinions" or based on "different assumptions." @ODNIgov & @iaeaorg both agreed Iran was abiding by the deal, allowing inspections, including military sites....
Isfahan Site Identified as Qanat, Not UGF Entry
We're now pretty sure this is a qanat, not an entry point for the UGF at Isfahan.
Video Confirms Interceptor Heading Directly Toward Sitra Impact
Unfortunately, that's EXACTLY what the video shows -- the interceptor heading right toward Sitra where the impact reportedly occurred. Red line is the approximate trajectory of the interceptor, white line is the point of view from the video. https://t.co/jvOPjH0Yme
Tomahawk Block IV Capable of Vertical Dive
I don't know who needs to hear this, but Tomahawk Block IV can dive vertically. https://t.co/rcP0BgLqGH
TLAMs Require Land Launch; Cannot Fly Directly over Water
Nope, TLAMs use terrain contour matching which means it CAN'T come directly from over the water.
Iran Likely Accessed Tunnel Materials Months Earlier, Evidence Shows
A good thread. One thing I would add -- we saw cranes and other heavy equipment at the tunnel entrances in late October 2025. I think its safe to assume Iran has had access to the material for months.
Damage Likely Misidentification; Investigation Required
From the video and satellite images, the damage looks most like "(2) misidentification" to me, but an investigation is necessary.
1‑2% of Tomahawk Missiles Crash Due to TERCOM Errors
Since people are rediscovering "clobbering" of cruise missiles, let me explain: Tomahawks use "terrain contour matching" (TERCOM) to find their way to targets. For reasons, about 1-2% of Tomahawks "clobber" -- get lost and fly into the ground --...
IRGC Compound Spotted, Likely Tomahawk Missile Launch
That's definitely the IRGC compound, looking north-ish. And that does look like a TLAM. https://t.co/zEGryMmIxG
IAEA Unlikely to Operate Solo; Joint Survey Likely
There is basically zero chance the @iaeaorg goes commando, as it were. (10x the IAEA-UNCSOM tension in post-1991 Iraq. Disaster.) More likely is an Iraq Survey Group-like arrangement, which maybe includes some friendly former IAEA inspectors and consultants.
Regime‑change Gamble Ignores Iran's Nuclear Reality
Again, because, at least implicitly, the aim is regime change and the theory is a new regime will solve the proliferation problem. It is not a wise strategy because these are foolish men.
Airpower Alone Can't Topple Regimes, History Shows
I think one reason that many of us are skeptical that the regime in Tehran will fall with airpower alone is that the US also tried this in Iraq in 1991, as Operation Desert Storm transitioned into the no-fly zones...
Ballistic Missiles Exit Space, Making Interception Nearly Impossible
“Their ability to exit and re-enter the Earth's atmosphere makes them incredibly difficult to intercept.” 👏All missiles fired on ballistic trajectories travel through space, including the Iranian ones.👏
Avoiding Wars Without Clear Strategy and Defined Goals
"... one reason I am very reluctant to begin wars of choice without a clear strategy and goals."
Israel's Strike Signals Regime‑change Goal, Not Counterproliferation
A strike on the Assembly of Experts is the clearest statement that Israel's goal is regime change not counterproliferation. I will repeat what I said in June: the operation is a tactical success if the regime falls, a failure if...
US Deploys PrSM Increment 1, Doubling Strike Range
Am late to the party, but I had not noticed that the US used the PrSM Increment 1 for the first time in combat. At ~500 km range, it's a big improvement over ~300 km range ATACMs given the...
Lack of Hardened Ops Center Cost Six Service Members
Those service members would still be alive if there had been a basic effort by their leaders at hardening/passive defense. No reason to have a makeshift operations center in a war where you determine D-day.
Official's Nuclear Claims Marred by Technical Inaccuracy
I can understand what this official is saying but good lord this official has a feeble command of the technical details.
Conventional Missiles Need Precision; Israel Likely Won’t Intercept Iranian Strikes
Conventionally-armed ballistic missiles suck unless one can achieve very high levels of accuracy. Last time Israel didn’t even bother to intercept Iranian missiles aimed at passively defended targets. No reason to think this will turn out differently for the Iranians.
Even Experts Find Focal Length Deceptively Misleading
I was geolocating the July 2025 Typhon launch from Australia last summer and--even though I teach my students that focal length can mislead--I was somehow still surprised by how misleading focal length can be. Around -15.32, 130.49° at 8:04:03 UTC+9:30....
Iran's S‑300s Lack Radars, Rendering Them Ineffective
A few weeks ago @sam_lair noticed that Iran was deploying S-300s with no radars. A SAM with no radar is useless unless you can network data — and we know Iran doesn’t do that either.
Info on 1st Multi-Domain Task Force Being Suppressed
There seems to have been a general attempt to restrict information about the whole 1st Multi-domain Task Force that operates Typhon and Dark Eagle. https://t.co/odFObLuaEz
Trump's Promised Superior NK Deal Never Materialized
The Trump people promised a better deal with North Korea than either the 1994 Agreed Framework or the JCPOA with Iran. That didn't happen then and it won't happen now. They might get some sort of deal, but it...
Questioning Trump's Grasp on Iran's Missile vs Nuclear Sites
I wonder if Trump is capable of distinguishing Iran's missile facilities (definitely reconstituting) from its nuclear facilities (much less clear), or whether its all mixed together in his head.
Witkoff Warns 60% Enrichment Risks Rapid Further Enrichment
Again, I think that's clearly not what Witkoff meant -- although I accept his statement was exceptionally maladroit. IMHO Witkoff was explaining, conceptually, why the retention of the 60% enrichment would be a problem under a deal (ie it...
Witkoff Warned 60% Enrichment Poses Proliferation Risk
This distorts what Witkoff said. He was abstractly explaining why 60% enriched uranium posed a proliferation risk.