Social•Mar 3, 2026
US Deploys PrSM Increment 1, Doubling Strike Range
Am late to the party, but I had not noticed that the US used the PrSM Increment 1 for the first time in combat. At ~500 km range, it's a big improvement over ~300 km range ATACMs given the geography of the Gulf. https://t.co/APBjBEl4E6
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Mar 3, 2026
Lack of Hardened Ops Center Cost Six Service Members
Those service members would still be alive if there had been a basic effort by their leaders at hardening/passive defense. No reason to have a makeshift operations center in a war where you determine D-day.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Mar 2, 2026
Official's Nuclear Claims Marred by Technical Inaccuracy
I can understand what this official is saying but good lord this official has a feeble command of the technical details.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Mar 2, 2026
Conventional Missiles Need Precision; Israel Likely Won’t Intercept Iranian Strikes
Conventionally-armed ballistic missiles suck unless one can achieve very high levels of accuracy. Last time Israel didn’t even bother to intercept Iranian missiles aimed at passively defended targets. No reason to think this will turn out differently for the Iranians.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Mar 2, 2026
Even Experts Find Focal Length Deceptively Misleading
I was geolocating the July 2025 Typhon launch from Australia last summer and--even though I teach my students that focal length can mislead--I was somehow still surprised by how misleading focal length can be. Around -15.32, 130.49° at 8:04:03 UTC+9:30....
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 28, 2026
Iran's S‑300s Lack Radars, Rendering Them Ineffective
A few weeks ago @sam_lair noticed that Iran was deploying S-300s with no radars. A SAM with no radar is useless unless you can network data — and we know Iran doesn’t do that either.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 27, 2026
Info on 1st Multi-Domain Task Force Being Suppressed
There seems to have been a general attempt to restrict information about the whole 1st Multi-domain Task Force that operates Typhon and Dark Eagle. https://t.co/odFObLuaEz
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 26, 2026
Trump's Promised Superior NK Deal Never Materialized
The Trump people promised a better deal with North Korea than either the 1994 Agreed Framework or the JCPOA with Iran. That didn't happen then and it won't happen now. They might get some sort of deal, but it...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 26, 2026
Questioning Trump's Grasp on Iran's Missile vs Nuclear Sites
I wonder if Trump is capable of distinguishing Iran's missile facilities (definitely reconstituting) from its nuclear facilities (much less clear), or whether its all mixed together in his head.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 26, 2026
Witkoff Warns 60% Enrichment Risks Rapid Further Enrichment
Again, I think that's clearly not what Witkoff meant -- although I accept his statement was exceptionally maladroit. IMHO Witkoff was explaining, conceptually, why the retention of the 60% enrichment would be a problem under a deal (ie it...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 26, 2026
Witkoff Warned 60% Enrichment Poses Proliferation Risk
This distorts what Witkoff said. He was abstractly explaining why 60% enriched uranium posed a proliferation risk.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 25, 2026
Iran Could Field ICBM‑class Missile Within 2‑3 Years
We estimated the Zoljanah would have a 4,000-5,000 km range as a missile so yeah ... US and Soviet experience would suggest they are 2-3 years from an ICBM-class system following a decision to go for it.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 25, 2026
Iran May Field 60 ICBMs by 2035, Not Just SLVs
There is a widespread misunderstanding about the @DefenseIntel claim that Iran could develop an ICBM on the basis of SLVs by 2035. The same document also says that by 2035, it could have 60 (SIX-OH) ICBMs. https://t.co/cEpVUZ7I5Y
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 25, 2026
North Korea, Iran Co‑Develop LPRE, Potential ICBM Threat
North Korea's "3.18 Revolution" liquid propellant rocket engine (LPRE) was co-developed with Iran. Iran released pictures of an itty bitty model of one at the space day last year. Might be for an SLV, but also makes a great ICBM...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 24, 2026
China’s Indifference to US Pressure Still Raises Global Concerns
+1. Even if China doesn't care about US pressure, talking to the CD raises questions among countries that China does care about.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 24, 2026
Lop Nor Event Dwarfed by Comparison Earthquakes, Data Shows
We now have a slide from @UnderSecT on the suspicious event at Lop Nor in China. One can see how much smaller this event is than the earthquakes selected for comparison by looking at the noise prior to the start...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 24, 2026
Unprecedented Action: CD's Most Active Period in Decades
Say what you will, but this is more action than the CD has seen in decades.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 23, 2026
Dark Eagle Launchers Get Quirky Censored Names, Sparking Humor
One thing thing about DARK EAGLE is that each launcher has a name -- Hyperion, Iron Giant, Shockwave, etc. -- but censors sometimes blur them. I like to imagine its not OPSEC at all, but just adult supervision, ie the...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 22, 2026
Witkoff's Enrichment Claim Misunderstood, Not a Bomb Threat
The criticism of Witkoff is unfair. He arguing, admittedly not all that adroitly, that enrichment levels of 60% exceed what's necessary for most civilian purposes and could be quickly ("probably a week") enriched further to produce "bomb-grade material." https://t.co/Zw26IV2hBJ
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 20, 2026
Nuclear Deterrence Alone Can't Stop Aggression without Conventional Strength
This, by the way, is why I am skeptical that Ukrainian nuclear weapons would have deterred Putin. He thought Ukraine would collapse, not resist. Deterrence usually works, but it is not foolproof and it does not replace a credible conventional...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Single Station Detection Yields Uncertain Location
Ah, then 20 tons fully coupled, no more than 400-800 tons fully decoupled. A one-station means its very hard to know the location with confidence.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Lop Nor 2.7‑magnitude Test Yields Mere
A magnitude of Mb=2.7 corresponds to about 18 tons of yield at China's Lop Nor test site. If the explosion was fully decoupled that would correspond to about 400-700 tons of TNT. Again, these are very small events, relatively...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Possible China Nuclear Test Detected, Seismology Needed
I wonder if this event is the alleged China nuclear test: 22 June 2020/0 depth/41.27, 90.75/~150 km from the test site, just outside error ellipse. The P/S amplitude ratio might show if it was an explosion--need a real seismologist for...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 16, 2026
US Consensus on “Friendly” Proliferation Eroding, Prompting Pushback
The consensus that “friendly” proliferation is also bad is collapsing in the US, which is why we see efforts to shore it up, eg recent remarks by @USWPColby or the @NTI_WMD-@BelferCenter-@CarnegieEndow commission.
By Jeffrey Lewis