Iran Could Field ICBM‑class Missile Within 2‑3 Years
We estimated the Zoljanah would have a 4,000-5,000 km range as a missile so yeah ... US and Soviet experience would suggest they are 2-3 years from an ICBM-class system following a decision to go for it.
Iran May Field 60 ICBMs by 2035, Not Just SLVs
There is a widespread misunderstanding about the @DefenseIntel claim that Iran could develop an ICBM on the basis of SLVs by 2035. The same document also says that by 2035, it could have 60 (SIX-OH) ICBMs. https://t.co/cEpVUZ7I5Y
North Korea, Iran Co‑Develop LPRE, Potential ICBM Threat
North Korea's "3.18 Revolution" liquid propellant rocket engine (LPRE) was co-developed with Iran. Iran released pictures of an itty bitty model of one at the space day last year. Might be for an SLV, but also makes a great ICBM...
China’s Indifference to US Pressure Still Raises Global Concerns
+1. Even if China doesn't care about US pressure, talking to the CD raises questions among countries that China does care about.
Lop Nor Event Dwarfed by Comparison Earthquakes, Data Shows
We now have a slide from @UnderSecT on the suspicious event at Lop Nor in China. One can see how much smaller this event is than the earthquakes selected for comparison by looking at the noise prior to the start...
Unprecedented Action: CD's Most Active Period in Decades
Say what you will, but this is more action than the CD has seen in decades.
Dark Eagle Launchers Get Quirky Censored Names, Sparking Humor
One thing thing about DARK EAGLE is that each launcher has a name -- Hyperion, Iron Giant, Shockwave, etc. -- but censors sometimes blur them. I like to imagine its not OPSEC at all, but just adult supervision, ie the...
Witkoff's Enrichment Claim Misunderstood, Not a Bomb Threat
The criticism of Witkoff is unfair. He arguing, admittedly not all that adroitly, that enrichment levels of 60% exceed what's necessary for most civilian purposes and could be quickly ("probably a week") enriched further to produce "bomb-grade material." https://t.co/Zw26IV2hBJ
Nuclear Deterrence Alone Can't Stop Aggression without Conventional Strength
This, by the way, is why I am skeptical that Ukrainian nuclear weapons would have deterred Putin. He thought Ukraine would collapse, not resist. Deterrence usually works, but it is not foolproof and it does not replace a credible conventional...
Single Station Detection Yields Uncertain Location
Ah, then 20 tons fully coupled, no more than 400-800 tons fully decoupled. A one-station means its very hard to know the location with confidence.
Lop Nor 2.7‑magnitude Test Yields Mere
A magnitude of Mb=2.7 corresponds to about 18 tons of yield at China's Lop Nor test site. If the explosion was fully decoupled that would correspond to about 400-700 tons of TNT. Again, these are very small events, relatively...
Possible China Nuclear Test Detected, Seismology Needed
I wonder if this event is the alleged China nuclear test: 22 June 2020/0 depth/41.27, 90.75/~150 km from the test site, just outside error ellipse. The P/S amplitude ratio might show if it was an explosion--need a real seismologist for...
US Consensus on “Friendly” Proliferation Eroding, Prompting Pushback
The consensus that “friendly” proliferation is also bad is collapsing in the US, which is why we see efforts to shore it up, eg recent remarks by @USWPColby or the @NTI_WMD-@BelferCenter-@CarnegieEndow commission.