Rising T‑Rates May Trigger Emerging Market Problems
Coach thinks T-rates could turn higher from here. That could cause a few problems. https://t.co/rnBUpVg4z1
Vol Sellers Fade as Inverse Volatility Spikes, Then Stalls
From the $SPX low on 3/30 through 4/14, $SPX was up 9.8% while $SVIX (inverse vol) rocketed 31% higher. Since 4/14, $SPX is up another 2.3% while $SVIX has run out of gas, up a measly 0.7%. Vol sellers have...
SPY Climbs, VIX Falls, yet VIXY Rises—Who's
Just one day and it's not over - $SPY up ✅ $VIX down ✅ but VIXY up ❌ Which one of you is buying VIX futures?? 🤔 https://t.co/h1DXe2Bnxh
April VIX Futures Will Mirror Spot Until Expiry
Monthly public service announcement. The April VIX futures contract will expire Wednesday morning. It will stick like glue to spot VIX between now and then. In the meantime, I guess uncertainty in the Middle East is a nonissue. https://t.co/8eThjEF0EO
Tail Risk Peaked Early, Vanished Before SPX Bottom
Weekend blog post features a chart built on the unique data found only @Nations_Indexes. Did you notice that tail risk (red line) peaked early in the correction and had faded by the time SPX hit its low? That was interesting...
Monthly MACD/PPO Red Bars Signal Upcoming Trouble
Chart referred to by @StocktonKatie on a recent @excessreturnpod. Monthly $SPX with percent price oscillator (PPO). Katie used MACD. I prefer PPO over long time periods, but same message. Nothing bad happens until monthly MACD/PPO is red. First red bars...
VIX Futures Flatten, Term Structure Normalizes Yet Remains Elevated
Here's what I'm looking at. VX futures are more flat than backwardated when compared to 3/27 levels. And the futures "curve" is tangled up with spot VIX. This is obviously a big improvement but still not "bullish." Meanwhile, the @CBOE...
VIX9D Slightly Below VIX Amid Broad Market Decline
The only thing vaguely positive about this chart is that $VIX9D is just a hair below $VIX. Otherwise, it's all bad news. https://t.co/bwp5uLxYty
Weekly Chart Review: Stay Cautious, Avoid Overreaching
Consulting the weekly charts and reminding the audience that you may not want to stick your neck out. https://t.co/WIM9bkH71c https://t.co/ESi6dhTHC3
Spot VIX Leads Futures, Market Stuck in Backwardation
OK. What's wrong with this picture? 1. Spot VIX still above all of the VX futures. 2. Futures remain very flat and M1 > M2 > M3 (backward). #BetterButNotBullish https://t.co/dR28SgxMLq
Vol up From March 6, Still Below February 27 Levels
Vol through the lens of @CBOE vol indices: better than 3/6; not as good as 2/27; pesky 9-day VIX refusing to cooperate. https://t.co/isod6NdR6y
VIX Plummets Despite Modest S&P Rise, Showing Over‑VIXing
$VIX had to come down with a 1% gain in $SPX. 3.7 points is a big drop for a 1% change, but we've been over-vixxing for a while now, as shown in the second chart. https://t.co/OV1trbLQxV
Elevated IV and Tail Hedge Spike Signal Vol
The bid for tail hedges could be seen in mid-Feb and peaked for now on 3/6. Meanwhile, ATM IV (VOLI) remains elevated. Big week with VIXperation on Weds and quarterly OpEx on Friday. Relax at your own risk. https://t.co/BdigWM05b0
Friday the 13th Fuels Ongoing Market Volatility
Again with Friday the 13th! And no love in the vol complex as we head into the weekend. https://t.co/x0OcW7xE6R https://t.co/eLS7V3zlfE
ATM Vol Premium Over Tail Hedge Signals Market Tension
At-the-money implied vol ($VOLI) normally trades at a premium to tail hedge ($TDEX). Makes sense. Both are elevated for obvious reasons. Folks agitated about the Middle East. This chart needs to repair itself before spooz can resume their cruise. @Nations_Indexes...