Weekly Chart Review: Stay Cautious, Avoid Overreaching
Consulting the weekly charts and reminding the audience that you may not want to stick your neck out. https://t.co/WIM9bkH71c https://t.co/ESi6dhTHC3
Spot VIX Leads Futures, Market Stuck in Backwardation
OK. What's wrong with this picture? 1. Spot VIX still above all of the VX futures. 2. Futures remain very flat and M1 > M2 > M3 (backward). #BetterButNotBullish https://t.co/dR28SgxMLq
Vol up From March 6, Still Below February 27 Levels
Vol through the lens of @CBOE vol indices: better than 3/6; not as good as 2/27; pesky 9-day VIX refusing to cooperate. https://t.co/isod6NdR6y
VIX Plummets Despite Modest S&P Rise, Showing Over‑VIXing
$VIX had to come down with a 1% gain in $SPX. 3.7 points is a big drop for a 1% change, but we've been over-vixxing for a while now, as shown in the second chart. https://t.co/OV1trbLQxV
Elevated IV and Tail Hedge Spike Signal Vol
The bid for tail hedges could be seen in mid-Feb and peaked for now on 3/6. Meanwhile, ATM IV (VOLI) remains elevated. Big week with VIXperation on Weds and quarterly OpEx on Friday. Relax at your own risk. https://t.co/BdigWM05b0
Friday the 13th Fuels Ongoing Market Volatility
Again with Friday the 13th! And no love in the vol complex as we head into the weekend. https://t.co/x0OcW7xE6R https://t.co/eLS7V3zlfE
ATM Vol Premium Over Tail Hedge Signals Market Tension
At-the-money implied vol ($VOLI) normally trades at a premium to tail hedge ($TDEX). Makes sense. Both are elevated for obvious reasons. Folks agitated about the Middle East. This chart needs to repair itself before spooz can resume their cruise. @Nations_Indexes...
SVIX Climbs as Front‑end VIX Futures Sold
How the hell was $SVIX (short vol) up 4.5% today with equities mostly in the red?? Someone was selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/oyCW72pqSw
Market Dips, yet Front‑end VIX Futures Being Sold
Despite 9 of 11 US sectors showing red, someone out there is selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/Wr7rXuRzOu
Credit Market Unease Signals Risk‑off Pressure on Stocks
IG credit not happy in here (LQD/IEF) and that tends to be risk-off for equities. https://t.co/M9wDvl27Od
VX Futures Rise as Spot VIX Falls Near Expiry
Spot VIX is lower but VX futures are higher. WTF? Well, the March contract is moving closer to expiration so the gap to spot needs to start shrinking. Futures will have a hard time unless and until spot drops a...
Minor VX30/VIX Uptick, Eyes on Next Two Hours
Tiny bit of improvement from VX30/VIX. Watching to see what the next two hours brings. https://t.co/6We2gflp6M
Positive VIX Spot‑Future Spread Signals Bearish Market
Here's the spread between spot VIX and the front month future. Positive spread is bearish. https://t.co/598aRc7d3r
VIX Futures Reverse After Testing 30, Volatility Looms
$VX 30 was tested overnight but VIX futures reversed from there. May still be a spicy day ahead of us. https://t.co/NDJwW1XZhG
TDEX Crash Put Hits 97th Percentile Amid Volatility Surge
OK. Pending apocalypse or local bottom? @Nations_Indexes TailDex ($TDEX aka crash put) hit 30 on Friday with $VOLI (ATM vol) at 22.58. TDEX level is 97th percentile and spread above VOLI also 97th percentile. You don't need to look far...
30-Day VIX Futures vs SPX RV21 Comparison
And here's my version using $VIX, VX30 (constant maturity VIX futures) and SPX RV21 that's ~ 30 calendar days. https://t.co/e8dCY61qju
SVIX Plummets, May Signal Emerging Volatility Cluster
Vol gods very angry this morning. That means that $SVIX is being smashed to a level that gets it on the watch list. But it could be the first of a cluster (see March/April of last year), so be careful...
Spot VIX Spikes, Futures in Backwardation; Expect Drop
Similar to what we saw pre-market yesterday. Spot VIX (from SPX option chain) way north of the directly tradeable VX futures. Backwardation of the futures is not a good look, but I expect spot VIX to drop once the bell...
Peace Returns to VIX Complex Despite Middle East Turmoil
The Middle East may still be in turmoil, but peace has returned to the VIX complex. https://t.co/rNDEVVnd18
CBOE Term Structure Reveals Lingering Weekly Market Concerns
And here's what it looks like using @CBOE term structure. Still worried about the next week. https://t.co/fiamATKWkr
VIX Spot Above Curve Signals Major Market Move
Spot $VIX sitting above the entire $VX futures term structure. This is not normal (duh). Either spot comes down or futures need to move higher. Pick one and play it accordingly. https://t.co/UHEiLblhn0
VIX Spikes Signal Potential SPX Plunge at Open
Going back to collapse of the Internet bubble, serious VIX spikes coincide with big drops from 52-week highs for $SPX. Second chart is a closer look at current times. Do we go down hard when futures open later today?? https://t.co/XnG2Iu29Fd
Market Down, Yet Breadth Shows Unexpected Green Strength
Yesterday was a down day for SPX and Naz Comp. So what is all this green on my screen of breadth numbers? https://t.co/Sww1AmkNJo
Hedged Market Faces Risk‑On Tailwind, VIX May Surge
Folks still pretty hedged up from what I can see. A bit of a risk-on tailwind in the VIX term structure. Could we see a move higher with some FOMO? https://t.co/UAZfhySv15 https://t.co/7zeEui58Ho
Front-Month Futures Dip, Back Months Stay Premium Amid Elections
Interesting (to me anyway) that the front months are coming down from the recent highs, but the back months are holding their premium. Mid-term elections? https://t.co/I5WS2ewLoF
UVIX Lags as VIX Jumps Over 7 Points
$VIX up more than 7 points from the low on Christmas Eve. 2x long vol (UVIX) actually dropped for the first part of the $VIX move higher and is up only a measly 11% overall. https://t.co/Id9MP45k4L
Beware: Repeated Long Vol Trades Lead to Losses
For everyone having fun looking to get long vol for a swing trade in here. To paraphrase Lionel Ritchie, it's "once, twice, three times a loser"..... https://t.co/ilJbnD8P59
SVIX Looks Bad on 15‑minute Chart; Do Your Own Analysis
This thing does not look well (SVIX on 15 minutes). Do your own work. https://t.co/81j1h6AyOe