US Manufacturing Expands Moderately, ISM Index Hits 52.7
U.S. MANUFACTURERS reported a moderate expansion of business activity for the third month running in March. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index edged up to 52.7 (50th percentile for all months since 2000). The index has been above the 50-point threshold dividing expanding activity from a contraction every month since January after falling below the threshold for 10 months straight last year and in 36 of the previous 38 months:
US Oil Output Stays Flat Despite War‑Driven Price Surge
U.S. oil production after the war ends U.S. oil production is unlikely to rise much as a result of the war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz unless the interruption of oil supplies and rise in prices proves...
King Charles' Washington State Visit Sparks Anticipated Debate
Plenty to talk about when King Charles goes to Washington for a state visit next month: https://t.co/ZAB8zSFGx3
U.S. Gas Prices Stay Low, Unaffected by Middle East Conflict
U.S. gas market insulated from war in the Middle East U.S. gas inventories are on course to finish the winter close to the average for the time of year, which has sent futures prices back below $3 per million British thermal...
US Gas Futures Drop Below $3, Boosting Clean Generation
U.S. GAS FUTURESprices for the front-month have slipped well below $3 per million British thermal units to encourage more gas-fired generation and reduce coal combustion. Inflation-adjusted front-month futures have averaged just $3.05 so far in March (21st percentile for all...
Middle East Jet Fuel Shipments to Europe Nearing Depletion
JET FUEL from Middle East to Europe set to dry up as last cargoes arrive: https://t.co/EBGhhiM04W
Brent Bulls Trim Positions Amid Hints of Negotiations
Wartime Brent bulls only slightly deflected by talk about talks Investors trimmed bullish positions in Brent slightly early last week after the U.S. government paused plans to attack Iran’s electricity generation plants and announced it was making progress in negotiations to...
Jet Fuel Prices Double, Asian Markets Hit Hard
JET FUEL prices have more than doubled since the onset of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. Jet fuel swaps in Singapore are trading at more than $200 per barrel up from just over $90 before the...
LNG Shortfall Threatens Global Gas‑Fired Power Generation
Gas-fired generation will be squeezed by LNG shortfall Global gas-fired electricity generation is likely to be among the hardest hit sectors following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the loss of production as a result of damage to two...
Pre‑pandemic Train Reads: Edinburgh‑Bought Journey Companion
Railway reading for a journey on the train …originally purchased in Edinburgh before the pandemic https://t.co/F3J480eTBg
Pennsylvania's Energy System: Emissions Overview and Future Path
PENNSYLVANIA'S ENERGY CROSSROADS - a briefing paper on the state's energy system and emissions: https://t.co/0PeHKbiekU
India's LPG Shortage Threatens Households Amid Hormuz Closure
India’s LPG crisis following closure of the Strait of Hormuz The war between the United States and Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz has become a critical threat to the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India relies on for...
U.S. Diesel Hits $5.38/gal, 75th Percentile Since
U.S. RETAIL DIESEL prices including taxes climbed to an average of $5.38 per gallon on March 23 up from $5.07 a week earlier and $3.81 before the war started. Inflation-adjusted prices have averaged $4.80 so far this month (75th percentile...
Energy Security Now Outweighs Emissions, Raising Costs
Energy security will cost more Policymakers and consumers want energy to be reliable, affordable and sustainable, but there are trade-offs between these objectives, requiring prioritisation, a challenge often described as the “energy trilemma”. The relative emphasis attached to these objectives...
Hedge Funds Buy 120 BCF Gas, Still Below Historic Levels
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 120 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major gas futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 17....
Kharg Island Seizure Won’t Halt Iran’s Oil Exports
[MUST READ] Iran’s Kharg Island - U.S. seizure would not necessarily end exports or re-open the Strait: https://t.co/yRYH1g1UAM
Oil Prices Rise Modestly Despite Major Hormuz Disruption
Oil Prices and the Information War Global oil prices have risen surprisingly little given the war between the United States, Israel and Iran has triggered “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” according to the International...
US Gas Prices Unchanged as Europe, Asia Surge Dramatically
U.S./IRAN war is having a very different impact on gas prices in Europe and Asia compared with the United States. The conflict has had essentially no impact on domestic gas prices in the United States, which remains insulated from global...
Israel Defends Iran Gas Field Strike, Cites US Coordination
ISRAEL shrugs off criticism of attack on Iran's South Pars gas field - citing deep coordination with the United States: https://t.co/1CMmLeQHgy
US Signals De‑escalation Amid Gas‑site Strikes
UNITED STATES signals de-escalation after strikes on gas sites in Iran and Qatar threaten to send war into new and more damaging phase: https://t.co/M624CwIJgU
Gulf Coast Crude Imports Hit Six‑year High Amid Gulf Disruption
U.S. CRUDE OIL imports into the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) surged to the highest for almost six years last week as refiners and traders prepared for a possibly prolonged disruption of exports from the Persian Gulf. Crude imports into the...
Middle East Supplies 40% of 2024 Medium Crudes
GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION – distribution by density and region. Middle East producers accounted for 31% of global crude output but 40% of medium crudes in 2024: https://t.co/ERNqgOPnnX
Gulf States Vow to Stop Iran Blocking Hormuz
GULF STATES want to ensure Iran can never again close the Strait of Hormuz and attack them: https://t.co/dxESxQ3EAf
US Refining Margins Nearly Double, 3‑2‑1 Crack Hits $40
U.S. REFINERS’ gross margin for transforming crude oil into gasoline and diesel has almost doubled since the start of the year as the war in the Middle East hits global fuel supplies even harder than crude oil availability. Stylised margins...
Weather Drove Horse‑bus Profits via Feed Costs
Britain's weather was the biggest single influence on prices and profitability for London's early horse-drawn buses because animal feed was their largest operating expense. Bad weather = bad harvest = expensive feed = low profits or losses https://t.co/SusLRj0nta
IMO Chief: Convoys Unsustainable for Reopening Strait of Hormuz
[MUST READ] IMO chief says convoys are not a long-term or sustainable solution to re-open Strait of Hormuz: https://t.co/5RH72OviGI
Hedge Funds Boost Nat‑Gas Futures, Yet Still Below Historic Peaks
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 159 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 10. Fund...
US Says Oil Prices Will Rise Until Hormuz Reopens
U.S. government acknowledges oil prices will likely continue to rise until Strait of Hormuz is re.-opened: https://t.co/3Db7xAQBDO
Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
Brent up 66% YTD, Still Near Century Average
BRENT crude prices have risen by more than two-thirds since the start of the year but in real terms they remain moderate at only a little over the average since the start of the century: https://t.co/MsEc6Lww8F
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Mansion House Station Named After Unbuilt Location
Ever wondered why “Mansion House” underground station on the District Line is not in fact at the Mansion House but a considerable walk away? Well the station was planned to be there, but the location was changed when the necessary...
Brent's Record Volatility Mirrors War Uncertainty
Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
Hedge Funds Keep US Gas Bets Low After Iran Attack
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers had cut bullish positions in U.S. natural gas to the lowest for more than 18 months before the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Even after the attack and the closure of the Strait...
Hedge Funds Cash In on Oil Spike, Keep Bullish Bet
Hedge funds realise some profits as oil prices climb Hedge funds and other money managers sold Brent futures and options last week to realise some of their profits on former bullish positions as prices surged after the United States and Israel...
Reopening Hormuz Strait Essential to Curb Oil Price Surge
STRAIT OF HORMUZ re-opening is central to any effort to prevent another spike in oil prices: https://t.co/hWRuSylzaC
Independent Energy Research: Affordable, High‑Quality, Unbiased Insights
Twelve months ago, I re-launched my newsletter as a subscription service to provide high-quality, affordable and objective research focused on energy issues. I have always been convinced high-quality research and analysis are essential for effective decision-making. The past year has confirmed...
Brent Backwardation Hits 98th Percentile Amid Hormuz Closure
BRENT futures have surged into a severe backwardation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to create an acute shortage of barrels. The six-month calendar spread has soared into a backwardation of almost $11 per barrel from less...
Fund Managers Slightly Boost Dutch Gas Positions Pre‑crisis
INVESTMENT MANAGERS purchased the equivalent of 12 terawatt-hours (TWh) of futures and options in the European benchmark Dutch TTF contract over the seven days ending on February 27. Nearly all the buying came from repurchases of previous bearish short positions....
China Seeks New Oil Sources as Middle East Supply Wanes
CHINA’s options to deal with loss of oil supply from Iran and the Middle East: https://t.co/pf8gYZWvxE
Europe's Gas Reserves Plunge, Refilling Hinges on Middle East Routes
EUROPE has depleted its gas inventories faster than average this winter in the expectation there would plenty of LNG to refill them over the coming summer. EU storage sites are on average just 30% full down from more than 82%...
Iran Conflict Will Expose Oil Market Fragility
IRAN WAR will test the vulnerability of oil markets - I got to write some thoughts in the Financial Times: https://t.co/L7TKTXxT7U
Hedge Funds Maxed Bullish Brent Bets Ahead of Iran Attack
Bullish Brent positions at nearly two-year high prior to attack on Iran Before the United States and Israel attacked Iran, hedge funds and other money managers amassed the largest bullish position in Brent crude futures and options for almost two years,...
Lower 48 Oil Output Flat, Barely up 90k B/D
U.S. CRUDE and condensate production from the Lower 48 states excluding federal waters in the Gulf of America/Mexico has flattened in response to the downturn in prices and drilling. Lower 48 onshore production was up by just 90,000 b/d in...
US Gas Stocks Near Seasonal Norm, Prices Dip Below $3
U.S. GAS inventories depleted much more slowly than normal for the time of year in the middle part of February, largely erasing the previous storage deficit and causing futures prices to slip below $3 per million British thermal units to...
Data Centers Push Power Use, Threaten Residential Rate Backlash
U.S. data centres seek to avert power price battle with voters After stagnating for more than a decade, U.S. electricity consumption has surged to a record high, driven primarily by growing demand from data centres handling artificial intelligence and other applications. But...
US Crude Stocks Surge 16M Barrels, Gulf Coast Leads
U.S. CRUDE OILinventories surged by 16 million barrels over the seven days ending on February 20, the largest one-week increase for three years. The increase was concentrated at refineries and tank farms along the Gulf Coast where stocks rose by...
US Electricity Hits Record, Solar Leads Non‑fossil Surge
U.S. ELECTRICITY net generation at utility-scale facilities climbed to a record 4,430 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh or TWh) in 2025 up from 4,309 billion kWh in 2024. Nearly four-fifths of the increase came from non-fossil generators (+94 billion kWh) led by...
Tanker Rates Hit Three-Year High Amid US‑Iran Tensions
TANKER RATES for chartering vessels to carry crude (or other dirty products such as fuel oil) have surged to the highest for more than three years as the United States and Iran edge towards war. The Baltic Exchange dirty tanker...
U.S. Gas Exports Surpass Domestic Use in 2025
UNITED STATES exported an average of 14.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by tanker and other 9.4 bcf/d by pipeline during the first eleven months of 2025. Total exports exceeded the combined consumption by households (12.0 bcf/d) and offices,...