John Kemp

John Kemp

Creator
0 followers

Senior energy analyst and columnist; macro energy markets and policy; maintains ‘best in energy’ list

Hedge Funds Boost Nat‑Gas Futures, Yet Still Below Historic Peaks
SocialMar 16, 2026

Hedge Funds Boost Nat‑Gas Futures, Yet Still Below Historic Peaks

HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 159 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 10. Fund...

By John Kemp
US Says Oil Prices Will Rise Until Hormuz Reopens
SocialMar 16, 2026

US Says Oil Prices Will Rise Until Hormuz Reopens

U.S. government acknowledges oil prices will likely continue to rise until Strait of Hormuz is re.-opened: https://t.co/3Db7xAQBDO

By John Kemp
Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening
SocialMar 13, 2026

Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening

Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...

By John Kemp
Brent up 66% YTD, Still Near Century Average
SocialMar 13, 2026

Brent up 66% YTD, Still Near Century Average

BRENT crude prices have risen by more than two-thirds since the start of the year but in real terms they remain moderate at only a little over the average since the start of the century: https://t.co/MsEc6Lww8F

By John Kemp
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
SocialMar 12, 2026

US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock

U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...

By John Kemp
Mansion House Station Named After Unbuilt Location
SocialMar 11, 2026

Mansion House Station Named After Unbuilt Location

Ever wondered why “Mansion House” underground station on the District Line is not in fact at the Mansion House but a considerable walk away? Well the station was planned to be there, but the location was changed when the necessary...

By John Kemp
Brent's Record Volatility Mirrors War Uncertainty
SocialMar 10, 2026

Brent's Record Volatility Mirrors War Uncertainty

Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...

By John Kemp
Hedge Funds Keep US Gas Bets Low After Iran Attack
SocialMar 10, 2026

Hedge Funds Keep US Gas Bets Low After Iran Attack

HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers had cut bullish positions in U.S. natural gas to the lowest for more than 18 months before the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Even after the attack and the closure of the Strait...

By John Kemp
Hedge Funds Cash In on Oil Spike, Keep Bullish Bet
SocialMar 9, 2026

Hedge Funds Cash In on Oil Spike, Keep Bullish Bet

Hedge funds realise some profits as oil prices climb Hedge funds and other money managers sold Brent futures and options last week to realise some of their profits on former bullish positions as prices surged after the United States and Israel...

By John Kemp
Reopening Hormuz Strait Essential to Curb Oil Price Surge
SocialMar 7, 2026

Reopening Hormuz Strait Essential to Curb Oil Price Surge

STRAIT OF HORMUZ re-opening is central to any effort to prevent another spike in oil prices: https://t.co/hWRuSylzaC

By John Kemp
Independent Energy Research: Affordable, High‑Quality, Unbiased Insights
SocialMar 5, 2026

Independent Energy Research: Affordable, High‑Quality, Unbiased Insights

Twelve months ago, I re-launched my newsletter as a subscription service to provide high-quality, affordable and objective research focused on energy issues. I have always been convinced high-quality research and analysis are essential for effective decision-making. The past year has confirmed...

By John Kemp
Brent Backwardation Hits 98th Percentile Amid Hormuz Closure
SocialMar 5, 2026

Brent Backwardation Hits 98th Percentile Amid Hormuz Closure

BRENT futures have surged into a severe backwardation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to create an acute shortage of barrels. The six-month calendar spread has soared into a backwardation of almost $11 per barrel from less...

By John Kemp
Fund Managers Slightly Boost Dutch Gas Positions Pre‑crisis
SocialMar 4, 2026

Fund Managers Slightly Boost Dutch Gas Positions Pre‑crisis

INVESTMENT MANAGERS purchased the equivalent of 12 terawatt-hours (TWh) of futures and options in the European benchmark Dutch TTF contract over the seven days ending on February 27. Nearly all the buying came from repurchases of previous bearish short positions....

By John Kemp
China Seeks New Oil Sources as Middle East Supply Wanes
SocialMar 4, 2026

China Seeks New Oil Sources as Middle East Supply Wanes

CHINA’s options to deal with loss of oil supply from Iran and the Middle East: https://t.co/pf8gYZWvxE

By John Kemp
Europe's Gas Reserves Plunge, Refilling Hinges on Middle East Routes
SocialMar 3, 2026

Europe's Gas Reserves Plunge, Refilling Hinges on Middle East Routes

EUROPE has depleted its gas inventories faster than average this winter in the expectation there would plenty of LNG to refill them over the coming summer. EU storage sites are on average just 30% full down from more than 82%...

By John Kemp
Iran Conflict Will Expose Oil Market Fragility
SocialMar 1, 2026

Iran Conflict Will Expose Oil Market Fragility

IRAN WAR will test the vulnerability of oil markets - I got to write some thoughts in the Financial Times: https://t.co/L7TKTXxT7U

By John Kemp
Hedge Funds Maxed Bullish Brent Bets Ahead of Iran Attack
SocialFeb 28, 2026

Hedge Funds Maxed Bullish Brent Bets Ahead of Iran Attack

Bullish Brent positions at nearly two-year high prior to attack on Iran Before the United States and Israel attacked Iran, hedge funds and other money managers amassed the largest bullish position in Brent crude futures and options for almost two years,...

By John Kemp
Lower 48 Oil Output Flat, Barely up 90k B/D
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Lower 48 Oil Output Flat, Barely up 90k B/D

U.S. CRUDE and condensate production from the Lower 48 states excluding federal waters in the Gulf of America/Mexico has flattened in response to the downturn in prices and drilling. Lower 48 onshore production was up by just 90,000 b/d in...

By John Kemp
US Gas Stocks Near Seasonal Norm, Prices Dip Below $3
SocialFeb 27, 2026

US Gas Stocks Near Seasonal Norm, Prices Dip Below $3

U.S. GAS inventories depleted much more slowly than normal for the time of year in the middle part of February, largely erasing the previous storage deficit and causing futures prices to slip below $3 per million British thermal units to...

By John Kemp
Data Centers Push Power Use, Threaten Residential Rate Backlash
SocialFeb 26, 2026

Data Centers Push Power Use, Threaten Residential Rate Backlash

U.S. data centres seek to avert power price battle with voters After stagnating for more than a decade, U.S. electricity consumption has surged to a record high, driven primarily by growing demand from data centres handling artificial intelligence and other applications. But...

By John Kemp
US Crude Stocks Surge 16M Barrels, Gulf Coast Leads
SocialFeb 26, 2026

US Crude Stocks Surge 16M Barrels, Gulf Coast Leads

U.S. CRUDE OILinventories surged by 16 million barrels over the seven days ending on February 20, the largest one-week increase for three years. The increase was concentrated at refineries and tank farms along the Gulf Coast where stocks rose by...

By John Kemp
US Electricity Hits Record, Solar Leads Non‑fossil Surge
SocialFeb 25, 2026

US Electricity Hits Record, Solar Leads Non‑fossil Surge

U.S. ELECTRICITY net generation at utility-scale facilities climbed to a record 4,430 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh or TWh) in 2025 up from 4,309 billion kWh in 2024. Nearly four-fifths of the increase came from non-fossil generators (+94 billion kWh) led by...

By John Kemp
Tanker Rates Hit Three-Year High Amid US‑Iran Tensions
SocialFeb 24, 2026

Tanker Rates Hit Three-Year High Amid US‑Iran Tensions

TANKER RATES for chartering vessels to carry crude (or other dirty products such as fuel oil) have surged to the highest for more than three years as the United States and Iran edge towards war. The Baltic Exchange dirty tanker...

By John Kemp
U.S. Gas Exports Surpass Domestic Use in 2025
SocialFeb 23, 2026

U.S. Gas Exports Surpass Domestic Use in 2025

UNITED STATES exported an average of 14.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by tanker and other 9.4 bcf/d by pipeline during the first eleven months of 2025. Total exports exceeded the combined consumption by households (12.0 bcf/d) and offices,...

By John Kemp
War Risk Premium Adds Only $10 to Oil Prices
SocialFeb 20, 2026

War Risk Premium Adds Only $10 to Oil Prices

U.S./Iran: Oil Prices and the War Risk Premium Oil traders currently assign a low probability to a war between the United States and Iran that results in significant and sustained disruption to exports from Iran and other countries in the Persian...

By John Kemp
US Gas Dips Below $3 as Supplies Stay Ample
SocialFeb 20, 2026

US Gas Dips Below $3 as Supplies Stay Ample

U.S. gas prices retreat on comfortable stocks Front-month U.S. gas futures prices have slipped below $3 per million British thermal units for the first time in four months as traders become convinced gas will remain plentiful despite record exports. So far, this...

By John Kemp
US EV Charging Ports Jump 10%, Fast Chargers Rise 25%
SocialFeb 20, 2026

US EV Charging Ports Jump 10%, Fast Chargers Rise 25%

U.S. ELECTRIC VEHICLE charging ports increased by more than 24,000 (10%) in 2025. More than half of the new ports were direct current fast-charging ports, which increased by more than 13,000 (25%): https://t.co/zEkOinhmj8

By John Kemp
EU Gas Storage at 32%—Second Lowest Since 2011
SocialFeb 19, 2026

EU Gas Storage at 32%—Second Lowest Since 2011

EU GAS STORAGE facilities are now less than one-third full, with more than a month of the winter heating season probably still ahead. Storage facilities were on average 32.5% full on February 17, the second lowest seasonal fill in records...

By John Kemp
U.S. Solar Power Hits Record 304 TWh, Ten‑Fold Growth
SocialFeb 18, 2026

U.S. Solar Power Hits Record 304 TWh, Ten‑Fold Growth

U.S. SOLAR GENERATION increased to a record 304 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) or 304 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024. Solar generation had increased ten-fold over the previous ten years from 29 billion kWh in 2014. Data prepared by the U.S. Energy Information...

By John Kemp
U.S. Oil Production Holds Steady Despite Falling Prices
SocialFeb 18, 2026

U.S. Oil Production Holds Steady Despite Falling Prices

U.S. OIL PRODUCTION has defied expectations for a rapid and significant slowdown in response to lower prices: https://t.co/fMfoyip69Z

By John Kemp
Investors Bet on Oil Amid Growing Supply Threats
SocialFeb 16, 2026

Investors Bet on Oil Amid Growing Supply Threats

Oil investors bullish on proliferating supply threats Investors are increasingly bullish about the outlook for oil prices as potential risks to production and tanker traffic multiply - including threats of U.S. military action against Iran and stricter sanctions enforcement. Hedge funds and...

By John Kemp
U.S. Gas Futures Hit Four‑month Low at $3/MMBtu
SocialFeb 16, 2026

U.S. Gas Futures Hit Four‑month Low at $3/MMBtu

U.S. GAS futures prices have retreated to the lowest for almost four months after spiking during Winter Storm Fern. Front-month futures have fallen back to just $3 per million British thermal units (the lowest since mid-October). The front month has...

By John Kemp
US Gasoline Inventories Hit Near-Record, Squeezing Margins
SocialFeb 13, 2026

US Gasoline Inventories Hit Near-Record, Squeezing Margins

U.S. GASOLINE STOCKS are well above normal for the time of year, weighing on refining margins. Inventories totalled 259 million barrels on February 6, the second highest on record for the time of year, exceeded only before the pandemic in...

By John Kemp
China’s Urban Gas Network Reaches 484 Million Residents
SocialFeb 12, 2026

China’s Urban Gas Network Reaches 484 Million Residents

China’s residential gas revolution China has connected more than 300 million people living in urban households to the natural gas network since 2010, according to data published late last year by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The number of urban...

By John Kemp
Investors Dump TTF Gas Futures as Prices Slip
SocialFeb 12, 2026

Investors Dump TTF Gas Futures as Prices Slip

INVESTMENT MANAGERS sold futures and options on the Dutch TTF European gas benchmark for the first time in eight weeks as prices retreated despite inventories well below average for the time of year. Funds sold the equivalent of 15 terawatt-hours...

By John Kemp
Mild Chinese Winter Cuts Heating Demand by up to 6%
SocialFeb 11, 2026

Mild Chinese Winter Cuts Heating Demand by up to 6%

CHINA’s winter has been relatively mild so far, limiting gas consumption and imports. Heating demand in the North China metro-region including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (home to 109 million people and accounting for 9% of GDP) has been about 2%...

By John Kemp