Rial Depreciates as US Threats Loom Over Iran
FYI: as we wait to see if the Trump Administration will move forward with direct attacks on Iran, this is US Dollar - Iranian Rial exchange rate. The reversion to a float since the beginning of the year does not reflect a favorable picture for Iran's economy... https://t.co/FRbvrdKDOk
USDJPY‑Yield Spread Correlation Rebounds to Strong Positive
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
91 Days, Two Rate Calls, Then Warsh Takes Over
Only 91 days and two more rate decisions (Mar 18 and Apr 29) before Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends (May 15th). Then it is the Warsh era...
Grey Swan Risks Amid Busy Global Macro Calendar
While I will keep an eye out for grey swans catalyzing (Iran and Supreme Court's decision on tariffs principally), the global macro docket picks up through Friday. Top event risk includes: Japan CPI; February PMIs; Mexico and Canada retail sales; US...
Dollar Stuck in Congestion, Faces Resistance Near 98.5
The Dollar is in a broader technical congestion pattern without a clear and persistent fundamental drive. As such, I tend to pay more attention to technicals. Looking at the $DXY daily, there is some notable resistance (50 SMA and '50%...
Packed 24‑Hour Macro Calendar: Japan, US, China Data
The global macro docket for the next 24 hours of trade pics up. Japan has machinery orders, mfg activity survey, a 1-year and 20-year JGB auction, Jan CPI. Walmart and Alibaba report earnings. US and Canada trade balance. PBOC rate setting. Start...
EURUSD Retreats to Fib Level as Longs Surge
$EURUSD has pulled back from its failed run on 1.20 a few weeks back - aligned to a 38.2% Fib of the 2008 to 2022 bear wave. Meanwhile, net speculative futures positioning has jumped this past week to its heaviest net-long...
Volatility Rises, Liquidity Dips, US Premium Deflates
What's on tap for the week ahead? An increased frequency of volatility meets a holiday liquidity gap, while a run of event risk weighs in on the steadily deflating US premium. https://t.co/17IH2lFIn0 https://t.co/AlKhX25xxn
S&P 500 Mirrors US M2‑to‑GDP Ratio Trends
There's a general and logical correlation between money supply and capital markets. But what about money supply relative to GDP? Here's $SPX overlaid with the ratio of US M2 / real GDP: https://t.co/UA5X14bWEk
Market Prices Accelerating Fed Rate Cuts Through 2026
Notably, market-implied FOMC cuts through 2026 have been increasing. Through February, Fed Fund futures have priced in another -14bps of cuts for the year - and now the most dovish outlook after CPI since Dec 3rd: https://t.co/NZF2YksrWV
CPI Cools to 2.4%, Fed Eyes Jobs as Unemployment Falls
US #CPI inflation figures came in line with expectations of a pace cooling. Headline dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% while core eased 2.6% to 2.5%. This does shift priority towards employment in the Fed's dual mandate but the jobless rate...
KC Futures Hold Bull Run Midpoint Near
Don't do this to me...I need my coffee. KC futs have tentatively held up the midpoint of the 2023-2025 bull run (around 290) https://t.co/9M9FIFrM6A
EURCHF Plummets to Record Lows, Yield Gaps Irrelevant
Another FX PSA: $EURCHF has extended its generational slide lower to fresh record lows. Yield differentials don't matter at all here apparently: https://t.co/cHMUxde914
USDCNH and USDHKD Show Strong Inverse Correlation
The correlation between the USDCNH and USDHKD is the most intense and consistent inverted I've seen since the former (theoretically) 'floated'. What's going on there? https://t.co/KsfLfKWwTf
Argentine Peso Rallies, USDARS Breaks 100‑Day SMA Streak
In case you haven't been keeping tabs, the Argentine Peso has been gaining some traction recently. $USDARS has taken out some recent support and ended a 1,689 (trading) day streak above the 100-day SMA https://t.co/Vq0kH5UKHg
NFP Beat Trims Fed Rate Cut Expectations by 8‑12bps
In the wake of this morning's NFPs beat and downtick in the unemployment, Fed Funds futures have shaved off ~8bps worth of expected cuts through 2026 - was as much as 12bps. Someone is going to be surprised if this continues:...
USDJPY Plunges 2.5% in Three Days, Reversal Uncertain
$USDJPY is down over -2.5% over the past three days. One of the biggest drops in the past year and a half. Doesn't mean it has to stall and reverse though... https://t.co/LRjhnctyzL
NFPs Surge Past Forecasts, yet 2025 Revisions Cut Million
#NFPs beat expectations by the most in 10 months - a 130K vs 40K expected. That said, revisions aggregated through 2025 have lowered the year's total by over 1 million https://t.co/p1pkqEWC57
U.S. Stocks Under Pressure as SPX/VEU Hits Near Two‑Year Low
The 'sell America' trade pressure seems to be picking up again. The SPX-VEU (rest of world equity ETF) ratio is the lowest since April 22nd. A little further and it is a two year low. Adding the DXY Dollar Index in for...
Dollar Index Plummets; Trade‑Weighted vs Equal‑Weighted Diverge
The $DXY has dropped sharply today. A big picture look at the trade-weighted Dollar index vs an equally-weighted variant: https://t.co/sqTvcv4ihu