Fans Seek Prediction Market for Beckham's World Cup Ads
How many commercials is David Beckham going to be in through this World Cup? Is there a prediction market for this?
ECB Hike Already Priced; EUR/USD Stays Flat
The ECB hiked as expected, but the markets were pricing the move in well in advance. Expectations of further hikes are lingering out there, but that isn't boosting $EURUSD or the EU-US 2-year yield spread: https://t.co/6VY8PNkjjb
Crude Prices Surge When US Inventories Drop Below Threshold
At what inventory levels do we start to see US crude oil prices take off again? https://t.co/CjvFD9TBPZ
BoC Holds Rate; USDCAD Slides Amid Yield Spread
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25% - as expected - and spoke to a policy 'dilemma' between a weakened economy and rising inflation. $USDCAD has backed off from trendline resistance and large 38.2% Fib, but...
Rising CPI Undermines Fed’s Dovish Signal Ahead of FOMC
The Fed's dual mandate isn't sending a 'dovish' signal for the FOMC next week. Core CPI ticked up to 2.9% and headline accelerated to 4.2%. Kevin Warsh is going to have an interesting first meeting... https://t.co/M5GLQ5YmIn
BOJ Poised to Intervene when Volatility Hits 4‑week Low
I think it is more a matter of 'when' - not 'if' - the BOJ intervenes again on (on behalf of the MOF) by buying the Yen again. When do they pull the trigger? Lowest level of volatility (4-week ATR)...
Silver Nears 200‑Day SMA Break, 301‑Day Bull Run
Silver is on pace to close below its 200-day simple moving average for the first time in 301 trading days. As of Monday's 300th close above, it overtook September 21, 2011's 299 day peak and marked the longest bullish drive...
DXY Bears Despite 13‑Month Congestion, Inverse H&S Unlikely
Some technical analysis debate: This is the past 18 months of DXY Dollar Index price action. Larger bias is bearish but we've had 13 months of congestion. Could be labeled an inverse head-and-shoulders. I don't think it will play out as one...
SOX Plunges 10%—Record Shorting on SOXX ETF
Not only was the $SOX's -10.3% drop on Friday the largest single-day loss for the semis index since March 2020, it also drove the highest short volume on the SOXX ETF since it began trading. That kind of reaction is...
Nasdaq 100 Breaks Technical Pattern After 33% Surge
The Nasdaq 100 paints the picture well. Clean technical break on the backdrop of an extreme move - 33% over 45 days and peak of spot running 13% over its 50-day SMA (biggest disparity since May 2009). Has this unseated...
Fed Cut Reversal Pressures S&P, Pricing In Year-End Hike
There reversal in forecast FOMC cuts may be starting to bite on the $SPX. Here is 'implied Fed cuts' - so forecasted change inverted. Almost fully pricing in a rate hike by the end of the year and undermining the liquidity...
USDJPY Hits 4‑year Low Volatility, Prompting Likely BOJ Intervention
$USDJPY's 20-day (1 trading month) ATR has hit its lowest level since April 23, 2019. This is the third most 'extreme quiet' for the pair in the past four decades... It's very likely the MOF - via the BOJ - attempts...
FOMC's Next Decision May Lose the Market‑moving Dot Plot
We are two weeks out from the next FOMC rate decision, which would be the 'quarterly' event we expect the updated SEP (Summary of Economic Projections). Looks like we may not get that dot plot anymore - was the most...
Wednesday's Global Macro Calendar Packs Major Data Releases
The global macro calendar gets interesting over Wednesday's session. We have Australian GDP; Chinese PMIs; Japanese FX reserves; SA GDP; US ADP payrolls; US ISM services PMI; Beige Book (2 weeks to next FOMC); Brazil trade (amid new tariff threat)...
Bitcoin Suffers Biggest 2‑month Dip, 200‑day SMA Breach Extends
Bitcoin putting in for its biggest single-day drop in 2 months. The -3.3% drop breaks the stretch since the last -3% or greater drop (49 days). Meanwhile, the reversal has extended the time BTCUSD has run below its 200-day SMA...