Nasdaq Hits Record Amid Geopolitical Tension and Earnings Outlook
My article for the week ahead (and my FOMC scenario table): Nasdaq at Record, US-Iran Unresolved, FOMC and Mag 7 Earnings On Tap https://t.co/XDQ8tBTF50 https://t.co/FrsmP5gFBA
Bitcoin's Record Low Volatility Signals Upcoming Surge
I know it's the weekend, but volatility in Bitcoin has ground to extreme low. At the moment, the $BTCUSD 4-day historical range (as %age of spot) is lowest since Sep 15. Only 4 other times has it gotten this quiet...
Markets Brace for Rates, Earnings, GDP, Iran Tensions
Here's my video for the week ahead: With Rate Decisions, Tech Earnings and GDP On Tap, Markets Can Ill-Afford Fresh U.S.-Iran Headlines https://t.co/ahCfP2J573 https://t.co/Kx6z0sEzid
No Recession Yet, Just Fear and Hallmarks
There is no recession - it just seems to have a number of the hallmarks of one and there seems to be record levels of concern around one... #recession https://t.co/HBGocSyWzf
US Deficit Ballooning as Fed Expands Balance Sheet
I know there is a lot going on with a lot of headlines (US-Iran, monetary policy, consumer confidence, etc); but worth remembering the ballooning US deficit and efforts to facilitate it (like the Fed balance sheet) still matter: https://t.co/4H1YDnmu7Y
Expect Powell to Dodge Political Pressure at Final Press Conference
I would like to hear Powell's unvarnished opinion on political pressure on the Fed next week in his final press conference following the FOMC decision...but I suspect he will abstain do to 'respect for the office' or some such
Nasdaq/Dow Ratio Hits Record, Tech Leads Market
The Nasdaq 100 to Dow ratio (tech to blue chip) gapped to a record high this morning - overtaking October's previous peak. Intel earnings certainly helped. Is this a sign that AI and tech is a leading theme again? Is...
Tesla's Earnings Beat, yet Weakest Nasdaq Correlation
Tesla offered the first earnings update of the Mag 7 last night, and $TSLA gapped down today after the headline beat (slight revenue miss and capital expenditure plans were higher than expected). That said, of the Mag 7, Tesla has...
Dollar Climbs, Risk Appetite Sours, Markets Tumble
Dollar has rallied; VIX spiked; equities, gold, emerging markets and Bitcoin have dropped. News of Ghalibaf bowing out of US-Iran negotiations not being taken favorably from a 'risk appetite' perspective
UK Business Confidence Plummets to 45-Year Low
UK quarterly business confidence from the CBI crashed in its update this morning (-27 to -38). Worst balance of confidence - outside of the pandemic - in 45 years... https://t.co/SpvRFSzNHK
Global PMIs Surpass Forecasts; Eurozone Contracts
The Composite PMIs - timely proxies for GDP for the major economies - largely beat expectations for April's update. The exception was the Eurozone and major member components, which missed forecasts significantly and slipped into contraction: https://t.co/g0G7ZJWDN1
Dropping US‑Iran Talk Deadlines From My Calendar
I am going to stop putting in proposed deadlines for the US-Iran talks into my macro calendar. Changing it intraday at this point...
June 1 Traffic Normalization Odds Dip to 46%
Meanwhile, probability that the traffic in the Strait will return to normal by June 1st lowest level since April 13th (46%) https://t.co/ZSS8VlOSXs
SPX Records Smallest Trading Day Since Dec 30 Amid Quiet Rally
We still have a little under 2 hours of trade left in the day; but at present, smallest $SPX trading day since Dec 30th. Dead quiet and at record highs. Nothing going on and no risk apparently... https://t.co/O6XPk2wIlD
WTI Climbs 11% as US‑UK Spread Flips Dramatically
US oil (WTI) is up 11% on the week again as we move back above 93. Meanwhile, the US-UK (WTI-Brent) spread has swung back from the unusual positive extreme (+2.50, highest since Nov 2008) back to negative extreme (-8.75). Basis...