US Hits Iranian Radars, Warns Ceasefire Could Crumble
The US has struck Iranian radar sites and intercepted missiles targeting US forces in Kuwait. It's remarkable the threat that the 'ceasefire is at risk' is being used seriously. Wider military action at risk would be more accurate
Warsh May Signal Lower Rates, Reduce Transparency
So is Kevin Warsh going to try and talk down the hawkish interest rate expectations in markets? Will he try to clamp down on transparency as he has suggested and let speculation run unchecked? DXY vs Implied Fed change through...
EURUSD Hits 12-Year Low Volatility; PCE May Spark Move
EURUSD is hitting extreme levels of quiet. Its 10-day ATR is the lowest since Jan 2nd (0.37%) and the rolling 8-day range - as percentage of spot - is the lowest in 12 years (0.74%). What can provide a break...
USDJPY Hits Record Low Volatility Amid Intervention Risks
$USDJPY is suspiciously quiet. The 10-day (2-week) realized volatility level is the lowest since Jan 2022. The historical range of the past week (5-day) is the smallest as a percentage of spot since Oct 2023. Too quiet at these highs...
QQQ Nears 3% Drop After 153-Day Streak
It's been 153 trading days since the $QQQ (Nasdaq 100) has put in for a -3 percent retreat and we very unlikely to get it before week's end. We have a holiday weekend ahead (US and UK off Monday), and it...
Dow Sets Record Close‑to‑Close High Despite Intraday Lag
On an intraday basis, the Dow is still below its February highs, but on a close-over-close basis: record high today. $DJIA: https://t.co/c4pqgSg6NP
Nvidia Beats Earnings, Yet Shares Slip Post‑Report
Nvidia earnings beat expectations. - EPS: $1.87 vs $1.70 Expected - Revenue: $81.62 Bln vs $78.75 Bln expected $NVDA initially dropping after hours in the initial reaction. https://t.co/qQBOg78JF6
ECB Rate Hike Looms as EUR/GBP Slides, Spread Rises
So sources are suggesting an ECB rate hike is on tap next month and this morning's UK inflation data isn't yet showing downstream acceleration (PPI up but CPI and RPI slower). $EURGBP is still tracking to the bottom of its...
Small‑cap Risk Gauge Slides 4.5% From Three‑year High
While there is a pullback in the major US indices, there is a more intense retreat in some of the more concentrated measures of risk appetite. The Russell 2000 - Dow ratio is down approximately -4.5% from its three-year peak...
AUDNZD Rally Wanes as Yield Spread Divergence Deepens
One for the APAC session traders: what do we think of $AUDNZD. It's been an impressive rally as rates and rate forecasts have climbed, but spot and the 2-year AU-NZ yields spread have started to diverge - 60-day correlation lowest in...
Japan’s Finance Chief Seeks Excuse for More Weak Interventions
Japanese Finance Minister looking for the next reason to pull the trigger on another wave of - likely underwhelming - intervention
Copper Plummets: Biggest Two-Month Drop, Still Tied to Gold
An interesting outlier today: copper. $HG_F posting its biggest daily drop in two months from (near) record highs. Faster drop than broader metals - though Copper-Gold correlation is still very highly positive (10day): https://t.co/nn0qJkA1Py
US Trade Inflation Hits Highest Since 2022, Fuel Drives Surge
The US import and export inflation data for April crossed the wires this morning. Biggest monthly increase in both since March 2022 - the initial charge of the global pandemic. Naturally, heavily fuel imports (+16.3%) and non-fuel only +0.8% https://t.co/V7WhLVHyIY
Bitcoin Defies Risk‑On Trend, Correlation Weakens
We seem to have a 'risk on' orientation to the markets, but Bitcoin didn't seem to get the memo... Some heavy support below (but 200 SMA above). Correlation to SPX (10-day) has dropped from its typically strong, positive standing. Bullish switch...
Japan's FX Intervention Powerless Against Massive Carry Trade
This is why Japan's intervention efforts won't work. The MOF - via BOJ - are trying to fight risk appetite and a healthy carry trade. That represents a vastly larger pool of wealth than Japanese authorities have in FX reserves to...
Inflation Hits 35‑year High While Jobs Stay Strong
Here's the big picture of today's US CPI reading and last week's unemployment rate - the Fed's dual mandate. The 2.8% reading isn't high relative to the 2022 pandemic peak, but it is highest relative to the past 35 years....
Nasdaq Futures Open Interest Hits Decade Highs, Bull
Checking in on Nasdaq 100 futs activity given this incredible charge. $NQ Open interest has been rising and is near decade-level highs. Net spec futures positioning hovering around neutral - was heaviest net bullish standing in 9 years just six...
Nasdaq Leads Risk Appetite Surge, Headlines Irrelevant
My article looking out over market conditions and top events for the week ahead: Nasdaq Leads Incredible Risk Appetite Charge and Headlines Make the ‘Why’ Irrelevant https://t.co/JdJ7yi3rmb https://t.co/SzIdZNf4CT
20th‑Week SPX Historically Weak; Catalyst Could Trigger
Historically, the $SPX has recorded its second worst week of the calendar year in the 20th week - which would be next week. Seasonality alone, isn't going to pull this market down; but if given the proper catalyst, these markets...
Nasdaq 100 Posts 6‑week Rally, Biggest Since 2009
The Nasdaq 100 is pushing out a sixth week's rally. Longest bull run since October 2024. Biggest 6-week rate of change (26%) since the recovery after the bottom dropped out during the Great Financial Crisis (2008/2009) https://t.co/oXCdaz8NiD
Stocks Hit Record Highs Despite Macro Fatigue
What's does the global macro horizon look like over the coming week? Record High Stocks Amid Extreme Headline Fatigue https://t.co/AoxA22S38v https://t.co/L2MqLnfrdM
US Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low Amid Strong Economic Data
US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan extended to a fresh record low. The 48.2 reading is down from 49.5 and current conditions component added the biggest impact. We are sporting a serious contrast in confidence and traditional economic data......
Employment Stability Could Boost Record‑Low U‑M Confidence Index
Let's see if the stability in employment trends helps lift the UofM confidence survey off its record low when it updates later...
US Jobs Surge, Defying Slowdown; Fed Rate Hopes Rise
US NFPs beat expectations and pushes back against economic slowdown concerns. April net jobs +115K vs +62K expected and +185K previously. Jobless rate holds at 4.3% That will further boost Fed expectations but wont dissuade the President from calls of cuts to...
Resolving Iran Tensions to Revive Trade War Focus
How patriotic. Hopefully we will have resolved the US-Iran conflict by then so we can fully focus on the revival of the trade war headlines.
High US Oil Prices Yet Recession Odds Remain Low
So US oil prices are remaining at very lofty levels with inevitable carry over effects on US (and global) GDP...but the probability of a recession has dropped to pre-war lows? Either the economy is less dependent on energy or we...
Prediction Markets Mirror Volatile Geopolitics, Like Oil
I am keeping an eye on the Prediction Markets for 'When Will the US-Iran Have a Nuclear Deal' and 'When Will Hormuz Traffic Return to Normal'. Those seem to be the leading edge of the theme - but just as...
NY Fed Inflation Expectations Hit 3.6%, Markets Unfazed
The New York Fed's consumer inflations expectations measure advanced to 3.6% - matching the highest reading since Sep 2023. Markets were already factoring in the inflation uptick it seems. No pop from the Dollar and Fed Fund futures forecast for 2026...
WTI Plunges 11% as Rumor‑Driven Headlines Swirl
US benchmark crude oil (WTI) is down -11% over the past two days. Since both sides likes to make their rap battle threats on social, they should lay out clearly their terms on social so we can follow along. This market...
US Oil Plunges 13% on Iran Headlines Volatility
US oil price action today was nuts today. WTI dropped as much as -13.6% at the days low and looking to end the day down around -6.3% Tthe reactionary and skeptical elements of US-Iran headlines drive this volatility. Second biggest 'lower...
Emerging Markets Set to Outpace Nasdaq 100 Gains
As impressive as the Nasdaq 100's charge is as it pushes fresh record highs, there is another asset class that is looking to outperform the market-cap dense/tech oriented index: emerging markets. Here's the EEM ETF overlaid with the EEM-NDQ ratio:...
War Triggers Market Plunge; Ceasefire Sparks Rally
Incredible. Starting a definitive war with tangible economic consequences led to a -8.5% drop in the S&P 500 at its nadir. And, announcing a questionable ceasefire with inevitable carry over economic throttling (best case) has led to an 11.3% rally... https://t.co/EjAJPCTMjQ
Blockchain Could Expose True Iranian Negotiators Amid US Confusion
You know, blockchain would be useful right now to clarify who is representing Iran in the talks with the US... In the past weeks, it seems that who the White House has purported to be dealing with is different than the...
Rising $5‑plus Gas Prices Demand Humanitarian, Economic Action
Second time I've had to fill up the gas tank with prices at or above $5.00/gallon... Would be nice to get this situation resolved for humanitarian reasons - but also the economic ones
US‑Iran Ceasefire Is Fragile, Not a True Truce
Seriously, is a truce nearly at hand or are the US and Iran just barely holding a ceasefire while they continue to contradict each others' demands? The headlines and social posts nowadays...
Nasdaq 100 Posts Rare 20‑of‑25 Up Streak
The Nasdaq 100 gapped up another 0.8% on the open with suggestions that the US and Iran are closing in on a deal. Impressively, in the past 25 trading days, NDQ has advanced in 20 of those session. Last time...
SPX‑WTI Inverse Correlation Plummets After Extreme Low
The 60-day (3-month) inverse correlation between the SPX and WTI dropped from its greatest negative extreme in 13 years (-0.88) in early April to a mere -0.12 today... https://t.co/FyZlAPW12P
Service Sector Holds, Inflation High, Jobs Still Negative
All things considered, the ISM service sector activity report was a 'fairly good' outcome. Headline sector activity only edged lower. Inflation pressures leveled out - at high levels however. Employment component bounces but still net negative: https://t.co/RbXrCgQUjB
Unclear Ship Traffic in Hormuz Highlights Information Gaps
So, have there been ships traversing Hormuz or not... why is it this hard to figure out what is actually happening in the Strait?
Iran Risks Retaliation by Targeting UAE Oil Infrastructure
Quite the gamble from the Iranian side to attack an American ally. Imagine it is a strategic evaluation to attack the UAE's oil infrastructure aimed at circumventing Iran's efforts to curb oil flows. High risk in retaliation suggests they can't...
Middle East Incidents Lift Oil to $104/$113
After reports from UAE of intercepted missiles from Iran, a fire in Fujairah and a cargo ship with an as-yet unexplained engine fire , US WTI and UK Brent oil prices up near $104 and $113 respectively: https://t.co/zuJPK9uWkU
Bitcoin Breaks 79k Fib Resistance, Eyes 84‑85k Zone
Bitcoin looks like it is clearing the overlapping Fib levels around 79,000 as immediate resistance on its recent consolidation. Next med-level zone is around 84,000-85,000 as the Nov-Jan consolidation base: https://t.co/QvM39QyncX
Stock Peaks Mask Real Costs of US‑Iran Conflict
My article covering market conditions, themes and top events this week: Reconciling Record Stock Market Highs to Tangible US-Iran War Costs https://t.co/Mx7W91Ke9C https://t.co/UaQC76ewvR
Nasdaq Climbs Amid US‑Iran Tensions, Near Record High
My video looking at trading conditions and top themes/event risks over the coming week: Nasdaq Advances Amid US-Iran Uncertainties: 'The Most Hated' Record High? https://t.co/lbmgMBgy9x https://t.co/A83bN9fTZ3
Google News Prioritizes Trump Amid Rising Search Interest
Is there something up with the Google News algorithm? It feels like 25-50% of my news home page is related to President Trump. Google trends shows 'Trump' searches are heavier this term, are more prolific than matters like 'economy' and...
Iran Vows to Retain Nuclear, Missile Capabilities, Reversing Pre‑war Stance
Iran's Supreme Leader has said they will maintain their nuclear and missile capabilities. That is backwards from where we were before the war...
S&P 500's Biggest Rally Since 2020 Fueled by Dip
The $SPX posted its biggest monthly rally since November 2020 - and it only took the largest monthly dip in 12 months to charge it and the word 'ceasefire' to trigger the reversal. Risk appetite is just ambivalent, it feels...
Nasdaq 100's Rare Large Lower Wick Signals Potential Weakness
With its recovery move, Nasdaq 100 has put in a larger 'lower wick'. Quite unusual to see a large (over 1% of spot) wick at a record high. Last time was Jan 25, 2021 and only three instances in the...
President Likely to Sidestep War Powers, Extend Conflict
So, we are at day 60 of the US-Iran 'war' and theoretically the President needs to get Congress's approval to continue according to the War Powers Resolution. If they reject continuing, he has a 30-day timeline to withdrawal safely. I...
Meta Beats Earnings but Spending Worries Drive Stock Down
$META's earnings response is less ambiguous. Though it also beat top line, the spending concerns were already driving the stock lower after hours last night. We start with a -7.4% gap lower on the open and we are adding to it...