Nasdaq 100 Record High Mirrors Past Bull Trend Starts
The Nasdaq 100 is trading at a new record high - much of the work being done by the bullish gap on the open. Spot is still 7.4% above the 20-day SMA - which is comparable to May '25, Jan '23 or Apr '20, all the start of larger bull trends. Same or different this time? https://t.co/iP2ILBnW7r
Prediction Market Gives 35% Chance Hormuz Traffic Normal by May 15
Since energy and capital markets are growing increasingly complacent on US-Iran headlines, have to look to more direct prediction markets to get actual takes on progress. Kalshi's market for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal by May...
Risk Appetite High, but Fundamentals Could Crumble Soon
I know the market is still charged on risk appetite and more than willing to persist on complacency, but if the fundamental situation starts to breakdown...this 4hr chart of the $SPX emini... https://t.co/wcb9ZHoyFs
US‑Iran Talks Stall Unless Blockade Is Lifted
Looks like US-Iran talks will no go forward unless the US lifts its blockade. So what happens: - US lifts blockade to urge talks forward - Pass deadline and military actions taken - Nothing changes and we pass deadline with no escalations
Avis Budget Group's $CAR Surges 500% in Short Squeeze
Impressive short squeeze in the wild: Avis Budget Group. $CAR is up over 500% over the past month and short volume volatility exceptionally elevated: https://t.co/1tCAmuSfgr
Warsh Signals Normalcy, Yet Bias May Influence 2026 Rate Cuts
Warsh is presenting himself as if he intends to be a normal Fed Chair. Either he intends to put his thumb on the scale despite what he is saying in Congress or the President is going to be disappointed. Dollar...
Warsh Vows Independence; Markets React with Caution
Overly simplistic headline I expect to see in Google News: "Trump's Fed Chairman Pick Kevin Warsh Says he Will be Independent of Political Influence, Stocks Retreat"
Dow Gaps Up Strongly, Yet Still Below Record
The US indices have gapped up on the open. The Dow's gap looks more productive from a technical perspective. Still not back at record highs for $DJIA though https://t.co/m7jMCR4RF8
US‑Iran Talks Will Steer Markets over Next 48 Hours
Here's the top global macro event risk over the next 48 hours. I think there is a lot of important backdrop to the likes of US retail sales, UK jobs and Tesla earnings....however, I think the US-Iran negotiations will be responsible...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Iran's Currency to Record Weakness
Read a good summary of the economic impact of the Hormuz blockade on Iran by Foreign Affairs. A good rudimentary reminder of the pressure is the exchange rate: USD/IRR is 1.320 mln and black market looks to be around 1.512...
High‑stakes Middle East Drama Fades as Public Interest Wanes
Despite reports of a US seizure of an Iranian flagged cargo ship, Iran's threatening to boycott talks, Trump threatening bombs would fall if the ceasefire ends w/o resolution and then suggestions that talks were on for Wed (all in 24...
Nasdaq 100 Overextended: 8% Above 20‑Day SMA
A look at some of the 'over-extended' aspects of Nasdaq 100: $NDQ rallied peak-to-trough 17% over 13 trading days. The index was more than 8% above its 20-day SMA Friday. Stretched above the 2 std deviation above the 20-day SMA. What now? Steady,...
Iran‑U.S. Standoff Persists Amid Weekend Political Theater
So it is now being suggested that the breakdown over the weekend was political theater. Iran still considers US blockade a redline and unwilling to give up its missile program. The US will not budge on enrichment and Iran control of...
Nasdaq Surges as Markets Overlook US‑Iran Tensions
My article for the week ahead: Nasdaq and Risk Assets Soar as Markets Ignore US-Iran Questions https://t.co/oj3oTBAvsM https://t.co/XKDWaWJJbx
Markets Rally on Ceasefire: Conviction or Buy‑the‑Dip?
My video for the week ahead: Markets Rally as US-Iran Ceasefire Extends - Conviction or 'Buy the Dip'? https://t.co/w1MCHHfY2k https://t.co/9RJlM8Up9V
Bitcoin Breaks Trendline, Clears 100‑SMA Amid Broad Rally
Risk assets up generally up across the board. However, there are some benchmarks that are drawing more greedily on the sentiment. Bitcoin, though it is lagging as a risk asset, has still managed to add to its trendline break but clearing...
Nasdaq 100 Posts 13th Straight Gain, Rare Since 2013
With the gap higher on the open, the Nasdaq 100 is on pace for its 13th straight session's advance. Last time we had a move comparable to this consistency was July 2013. Haven't really seen runs like these (consistency) historically where...
Oil Spot Still 29% Above 200‑Day SMA
Oil has come down on with the ceasefire (persisting through reciprocal blockades), but spot is still very high - and the longer it remains elevated, the more permanent economic impact it has. Statistically, spot still 29% above the 200 SMA. Peaked...
Markets Pause, Risk Assets Stabilize Near Record Highs
Seems the market is actually taking a break to contemplate life choices. $SPX - and broader risk sensitive assets - steadied today. Still at record highs, but not indulging them... https://t.co/RNxvWbK9rQ
BTC Nears 76k, Faces 100‑day SMA Resistance
Bitcoin is close to its range 76,000 range high and very close to a more prolific technical resistance: $BTCUSD's 100-day SMA is at 74,934, and spot has held below that moving average for 188 days - longest bearish stretch in 11...
Unclear if New Cases Overlap Proposed Pardons
What are the odds any people they find will already be covered by the proposed pardons?
Emerging Markets Surge as Yuan Hits 3‑Year High
While risk appetite has recovered sharply amid the Strait shutdown, emerging markets doing particularly well. While the EEM ETF has climbed (inverted below), the Chinese Yuan has climbed to a 3-yr high vs the Dollar - 254 days USDCNH below...
Market Milestones Shouldn't Distract From Strait Tensions
If the Dow hits 50,000 again, do we lose our right to talk about the Strait of Hormuz?
S&P 500 Inches Within 0.2% of Record High
This is how far off of a record high the $SPX's close is today....less than 0.2%. You can smell that YOLO in the air again... https://t.co/46zbHTLg3m
Short‑lived Risk Appetite May End
Ultimately, I think this charged risk appetite drive is another short-lived buy-the-dip opportunism that will fizzle out. Real question is whether we return to the crawl higher that preceded the US-Iran conflict or if it is more of a fundamental...
DJIA/Russell 2000 Ratio Hits Lowest Since July 2024
Something of a contrast to the 'concentration' perspective, the ratio of the DJIA to the Russell 2000 has actually extended its drop to its lowest point since July 2024. This shift suggests there is a diversification in risk appetite - but...
Tech Outpaces Blue Chips Amid Speculative Deal Hype
Looking behind the speculative charge fueled by the market's expectation of a deal (or TACO if you want to access uncharitably), there is a preferential skew towards tech vs other major market cap players. Here is the NDQ vs DJIA...
Nasdaq 100 Posts First 10-Day Streak Since 2021
The Nasdaq 100 is tearing higher... Still a little distance from its record high close - much less intraday high - but 10 consecutive days advance (first since Nov 2021) and a 12% 10-day rally. Impressive. $NDQ https://t.co/A6kmB0p8TC
DXY Slides, Rate Expectations Lose Grip on Dollar
Fed rate expectations are drawing less influence the bearings of the Dollar. The $DXY's slide - really a 'path of least resistance break' back into range - outpacing a modest shift in FOMC rate cut expectations: https://t.co/X6AzVkA5Mb
Trade and Monetary Policy Uncertainty Peaks Now
Worth checking in on the 'Economic Policy Uncertainty Index' at this stage. Here is the current state of 'trade policy' and 'monetary policy' uncertainty: https://t.co/LoRQhUsZsA
IMF Delays Full WEO Release, Downgrades Middle East Outlook
Apparently the IMF won't release its full WEO compiled report for the April 2026 update until Apr 30th. That said, we can look at the projections table and compare to the January update. A very tame adjustment - outside of...
Risk Appetite Soars as S&P Nears Record High
What Middle East crisis? Sticky inflation? Exacerbated existing economic uncertainties? None of this is competing with risk appetite right now. $SPX is within 1 percent of its record intraday high and sporting is second strongest 10-day rally in four years...
Deal or Destroy? Choosing US‑Iran Priorities
What comes first? A. genuine deal between the US and Iran B. A military sinking of a vessel that breaches one/both of the blockades
Record Net Longs Signal Potential Bitcoin Rally
Interesting speculative activity in Bitcoin futures. Net speculative positioning is at a record long while open interest has trended lower. Last two net long peaks were basing lows before strong runs higher https://t.co/7QgmGjGCng
WTI Backwardation Stays Massive at $6.06 per Barrel
The backwardation in US WTI crude futures (active nearby - second contract) is +$6.06... Was as high as +$16.50, but this is still enormous. Blue is the OVX oil volatility index: https://t.co/mGUKpZpzet
Goldman Beats Forecast Yet Shares Open Lower
Goldman was - unusually - the first bank out of the gate for this quarter's earnings season. The company beat expectations: - EPS of $17.55 vs $16.34 expected - Revenue $34.31Bln vs $16.98Bln expected However, $GS still gapped down on the open...
WTI Opens Higher, Volatility Index Nudges up Modestly
Thought WTI US crude oil has gapped up on the open and the OVX volatility index has jogged higher; both are still fairly restrained... https://t.co/v7dH8pjKVt
Risk Assets Hold Steady After Iran Ceasefire, Not Collapse
Risk assets are not as put out by the collapse of US-Iran peace talks as they were heartened by the announced ceasefire. Wonder how long this lasts... Markets: SPX, EEM, HYG, Gold and Bitcoin https://t.co/FwSi3lcMY7
Market Sentiment Set to Plunge as US‑Iran Talks Collapse
My article on market conditions, themes and top event risk for the week ahead: How Bad Will Market Sentiment Get as US-Iran Peace Talks Fall Apart? https://t.co/5Qd3Zkb5xY https://t.co/ifGXjJ2Scu
Most Assets Slide, Oil Climbs Ahead of Monday Open
Taking stock of key markets through crypto and other proxies to get a loose expectation for Monday's open: - Bitcoin (BTCSUD) down -2.9% - Dow down -1.3% - Gold (XAUUSD) down -2.8% - US Oil up +2.9%
US‑Iran Deadlock Threatens Strait, Awaiting First Attack
So the US and Iran can't come to an agreement, and the solution is to ensure no traffic makes it through the Strait. We're just waiting for a vessel to be attacked by either side and the ceasefire will truly fall...
US‑Iran Talks Persist, but Compromise Essential for Ceasefire
US-Iran talks to continue tomorrow as "serious diagreements" supposedly remain. There is going to have to be some significant compromise made - by one side if not both - otherwise there are no real terms to this ceasefire...
Market Outlook: Impact of Ceasefire Success or Failure
My video looking out over the coming week: Market Outlook Should a Ceasefire Fail or Hold https://t.co/MVQDZY94oJ https://t.co/Ir3CZFs9DE
Close to Deadline: Hedge Risky US‑Iran Exposure Now
Seriously, we have less than 40 minutes until exchange hours close and we loose liquidity for the week. If you have exposure that you feel is 'risky' should the US-Iran conflict kick off again over the weekend, consider cutting or...
President Proposes New UAE Strait, Iran to Fund
I think the President should say that they will build a new strait through the UAE and Iran will pay for it...
Ceasefire Doomed: Conflict Likely Resumes Next Week
It seems the two never really agreed to the same terms to begin with - and both sides were clearly adamant on their respective requirements before this ceasefire began. All things considered, it looks more likely that the conflict restarts...
Volatility Collapse Persists Amid Fragile Ceasefire
What is up with this... We are heading into the weekend with a ceasefire that both sides are actively punching holes through, and implied volatility has the market looking like it is walking into headlights. VIX still dropping, 1-day - 30-day spread...
Statham's New Trailer Predictable: Same Action Formula
In good news, there is a trailer for a new Jason Statham movie. You don't need to watch it, you know exactly what the plot is.
Review Risk Exposure Before Friday Liquidity Drain
They are not on the same page at all. This is nuts. I would suggest reviewing your risk exposure before liquidity drains Friday as this ceasefire seems to be purely aspirational
Inflation Surge: CPI Expected 3.3%, Dollar Under Pressure
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...