Markets Rally on Ceasefire: Conviction or Buy‑the‑Dip?
My video for the week ahead: Markets Rally as US-Iran Ceasefire Extends - Conviction or 'Buy the Dip'? https://t.co/w1MCHHfY2k https://t.co/9RJlM8Up9V
Bitcoin Breaks Trendline, Clears 100‑SMA Amid Broad Rally
Risk assets up generally up across the board. However, there are some benchmarks that are drawing more greedily on the sentiment. Bitcoin, though it is lagging as a risk asset, has still managed to add to its trendline break but clearing...
Nasdaq 100 Posts 13th Straight Gain, Rare Since 2013
With the gap higher on the open, the Nasdaq 100 is on pace for its 13th straight session's advance. Last time we had a move comparable to this consistency was July 2013. Haven't really seen runs like these (consistency) historically where...
Oil Spot Still 29% Above 200‑Day SMA
Oil has come down on with the ceasefire (persisting through reciprocal blockades), but spot is still very high - and the longer it remains elevated, the more permanent economic impact it has. Statistically, spot still 29% above the 200 SMA. Peaked...
Markets Pause, Risk Assets Stabilize Near Record Highs
Seems the market is actually taking a break to contemplate life choices. $SPX - and broader risk sensitive assets - steadied today. Still at record highs, but not indulging them... https://t.co/RNxvWbK9rQ
BTC Nears 76k, Faces 100‑day SMA Resistance
Bitcoin is close to its range 76,000 range high and very close to a more prolific technical resistance: $BTCUSD's 100-day SMA is at 74,934, and spot has held below that moving average for 188 days - longest bearish stretch in 11...
Unclear if New Cases Overlap Proposed Pardons
What are the odds any people they find will already be covered by the proposed pardons?
Emerging Markets Surge as Yuan Hits 3‑Year High
While risk appetite has recovered sharply amid the Strait shutdown, emerging markets doing particularly well. While the EEM ETF has climbed (inverted below), the Chinese Yuan has climbed to a 3-yr high vs the Dollar - 254 days USDCNH below...
Market Milestones Shouldn't Distract From Strait Tensions
If the Dow hits 50,000 again, do we lose our right to talk about the Strait of Hormuz?
S&P 500 Inches Within 0.2% of Record High
This is how far off of a record high the $SPX's close is today....less than 0.2%. You can smell that YOLO in the air again... https://t.co/46zbHTLg3m
Short‑lived Risk Appetite May End
Ultimately, I think this charged risk appetite drive is another short-lived buy-the-dip opportunism that will fizzle out. Real question is whether we return to the crawl higher that preceded the US-Iran conflict or if it is more of a fundamental...
DJIA/Russell 2000 Ratio Hits Lowest Since July 2024
Something of a contrast to the 'concentration' perspective, the ratio of the DJIA to the Russell 2000 has actually extended its drop to its lowest point since July 2024. This shift suggests there is a diversification in risk appetite - but...
Tech Outpaces Blue Chips Amid Speculative Deal Hype
Looking behind the speculative charge fueled by the market's expectation of a deal (or TACO if you want to access uncharitably), there is a preferential skew towards tech vs other major market cap players. Here is the NDQ vs DJIA...
Nasdaq 100 Posts First 10-Day Streak Since 2021
The Nasdaq 100 is tearing higher... Still a little distance from its record high close - much less intraday high - but 10 consecutive days advance (first since Nov 2021) and a 12% 10-day rally. Impressive. $NDQ https://t.co/A6kmB0p8TC
DXY Slides, Rate Expectations Lose Grip on Dollar
Fed rate expectations are drawing less influence the bearings of the Dollar. The $DXY's slide - really a 'path of least resistance break' back into range - outpacing a modest shift in FOMC rate cut expectations: https://t.co/X6AzVkA5Mb
Trade and Monetary Policy Uncertainty Peaks Now
Worth checking in on the 'Economic Policy Uncertainty Index' at this stage. Here is the current state of 'trade policy' and 'monetary policy' uncertainty: https://t.co/LoRQhUsZsA
IMF Delays Full WEO Release, Downgrades Middle East Outlook
Apparently the IMF won't release its full WEO compiled report for the April 2026 update until Apr 30th. That said, we can look at the projections table and compare to the January update. A very tame adjustment - outside of...
Risk Appetite Soars as S&P Nears Record High
What Middle East crisis? Sticky inflation? Exacerbated existing economic uncertainties? None of this is competing with risk appetite right now. $SPX is within 1 percent of its record intraday high and sporting is second strongest 10-day rally in four years...
Deal or Destroy? Choosing US‑Iran Priorities
What comes first? A. genuine deal between the US and Iran B. A military sinking of a vessel that breaches one/both of the blockades
Record Net Longs Signal Potential Bitcoin Rally
Interesting speculative activity in Bitcoin futures. Net speculative positioning is at a record long while open interest has trended lower. Last two net long peaks were basing lows before strong runs higher https://t.co/7QgmGjGCng
WTI Backwardation Stays Massive at $6.06 per Barrel
The backwardation in US WTI crude futures (active nearby - second contract) is +$6.06... Was as high as +$16.50, but this is still enormous. Blue is the OVX oil volatility index: https://t.co/mGUKpZpzet
Goldman Beats Forecast Yet Shares Open Lower
Goldman was - unusually - the first bank out of the gate for this quarter's earnings season. The company beat expectations: - EPS of $17.55 vs $16.34 expected - Revenue $34.31Bln vs $16.98Bln expected However, $GS still gapped down on the open...
WTI Opens Higher, Volatility Index Nudges up Modestly
Thought WTI US crude oil has gapped up on the open and the OVX volatility index has jogged higher; both are still fairly restrained... https://t.co/v7dH8pjKVt
Risk Assets Hold Steady After Iran Ceasefire, Not Collapse
Risk assets are not as put out by the collapse of US-Iran peace talks as they were heartened by the announced ceasefire. Wonder how long this lasts... Markets: SPX, EEM, HYG, Gold and Bitcoin https://t.co/FwSi3lcMY7
Market Sentiment Set to Plunge as US‑Iran Talks Collapse
My article on market conditions, themes and top event risk for the week ahead: How Bad Will Market Sentiment Get as US-Iran Peace Talks Fall Apart? https://t.co/5Qd3Zkb5xY https://t.co/ifGXjJ2Scu
Most Assets Slide, Oil Climbs Ahead of Monday Open
Taking stock of key markets through crypto and other proxies to get a loose expectation for Monday's open: - Bitcoin (BTCSUD) down -2.9% - Dow down -1.3% - Gold (XAUUSD) down -2.8% - US Oil up +2.9%
US‑Iran Deadlock Threatens Strait, Awaiting First Attack
So the US and Iran can't come to an agreement, and the solution is to ensure no traffic makes it through the Strait. We're just waiting for a vessel to be attacked by either side and the ceasefire will truly fall...
US‑Iran Talks Persist, but Compromise Essential for Ceasefire
US-Iran talks to continue tomorrow as "serious diagreements" supposedly remain. There is going to have to be some significant compromise made - by one side if not both - otherwise there are no real terms to this ceasefire...
Market Outlook: Impact of Ceasefire Success or Failure
My video looking out over the coming week: Market Outlook Should a Ceasefire Fail or Hold https://t.co/MVQDZY94oJ https://t.co/Ir3CZFs9DE
Close to Deadline: Hedge Risky US‑Iran Exposure Now
Seriously, we have less than 40 minutes until exchange hours close and we loose liquidity for the week. If you have exposure that you feel is 'risky' should the US-Iran conflict kick off again over the weekend, consider cutting or...
President Proposes New UAE Strait, Iran to Fund
I think the President should say that they will build a new strait through the UAE and Iran will pay for it...
Ceasefire Doomed: Conflict Likely Resumes Next Week
It seems the two never really agreed to the same terms to begin with - and both sides were clearly adamant on their respective requirements before this ceasefire began. All things considered, it looks more likely that the conflict restarts...
Volatility Collapse Persists Amid Fragile Ceasefire
What is up with this... We are heading into the weekend with a ceasefire that both sides are actively punching holes through, and implied volatility has the market looking like it is walking into headlights. VIX still dropping, 1-day - 30-day spread...
Statham's New Trailer Predictable: Same Action Formula
In good news, there is a trailer for a new Jason Statham movie. You don't need to watch it, you know exactly what the plot is.
Review Risk Exposure Before Friday Liquidity Drain
They are not on the same page at all. This is nuts. I would suggest reviewing your risk exposure before liquidity drains Friday as this ceasefire seems to be purely aspirational
Inflation Surge: CPI Expected 3.3%, Dollar Under Pressure
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
Both Iran and White House Must ‘Like’ Ceasefire Terms
Is there a ceasefire to break? At this point, I think we need to have both Iran and the White House 'like' the same social post listing the agreed upon terms of a ceasefire...
Wedge Break Signals Clear Tech Market Direction
This is the kind wedge pattern break that offers clear resolution for tech observers... $DXY Dollar Index: https://t.co/MwWVvohhYo
Gold's Clean Rising Triangle Signals Potential Breakout
This rising triangle that has developed on the Gold chart over the past two weeks is remarkably clean... Plenty of scheduled and unscheduled event risk to kick this into a breakout in either direction https://t.co/BgNWHjDL4n
Oil Volatility Soars as US‑Iran Ceasefire Uncertain
Volatility remains exceptionally elevated for oil today. Back and forth in the headlines around whether the ceasefire will hold between US-Iran. The 10-day ATR has 'settled' at 9% - which very volatile. The US-Brent spread is still positive - which is...
NZ 2-Year Yield Stays Steady Amid RBNZ Hawkish Shift
It is remarkable that the NZ 2-year yield saw little adjustment with the RBNZ's hawkish shift. The NZ-US 2-year spread was essentially unchanged despite the $NZUSD rally. Remarkable
Hormuz Shipping Delays Threaten Early Planting Season
Shipping through Hormuz is backed up and the cease fire and reopening already look at risk. @mike_castle2 , what is the best case scenario (ceasefire holds and we restore shipping) for crops given we are essentially at the start of...
White House Strait Red Line Breached, Ceasefire Foundations Crumble
So one of the White House's red lines - that the Strait has to be fully open and encumbered - has also been breached. Both sides say their requirements have been violated. What is this ceasefire based on...
Iran Accuses US of Ceasefire Breach, Labels Negotiation Terms Unreasonable
Iran saying the US in breach of the ceasefire clauses. Says conditions for bilateral negotiations is unreasonable. I think it interesting that he went out of his way to call it a the President's 'Truth' (rather than social post)...
Macro Data Deluge Competes with US‑Iran Tensions
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
Iran May Require Crypto for Strait Fees, Boosting Bitcoin Use
Are these reports that Iran's demands for Strait fees are to be made in crypto payments? An interesting lining to a potential Bitcoin bid for a prominent and high volume use case...
S&P 500 Jumps 2.1%, Biggest Gap Since Tariff Relief
The $SPX's opening gap today was a massive +2.1% over yesterday's close. That is the biggest bullish gap since May 12th - when the US and China agreed to cut their heavy reciprocal tariffs on each other for 90 days:...
US Oil Faces Largest Daily Drop Since 2011
Though US oil is gradually creeping back up, the daily candle is still sporting its biggest single day drop outside (outside of the negative price fiasco of April 2020) since the market assurances following the Sep 11 attacks (specifically Sep...
Prediction Markets Now Track Hormuz Traffic, Not Ceasefire
The prediction markets have shifted from assessing when the US-Iran will reach their ceasefire to 'When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal': https://t.co/86UZblCs7z
US Threatens 50% Tariffs on Iran‑weapon Suppliers
Getting back into the high and abrupt tariff implementation game. Threatening a 50% tariff (on goods sold to the US) on any country that supplies military weapons to Iran. That seems like it can get closer to a Section 232 approval...