Prediction Markets Boost Ceasefire Odds to 55% by End‑April
While there is clear doubt around the market's confidence in the US-Iran having productive talks, the prediction markets have shown a jump (from 39% to 55%) in the probability of a ceasefire by April 30th. Still, that implies a further month of conflict... https://t.co/8TDJAc0ryO
WTI Poised for Biggest Drop Yet, Still
Depending on where the WTI crude oil front month closes the day, we are looking at either the biggest single-day drop since Jun 23, 2025 or Mar 9, 2022. Either way...massive day...and yet still over 36% higher than the 200-day...
VIX Candle Range Hits Highest Since Liberation Day
Like most other risk-oriented assets today, the $VIX volatility index has seen some extreme volatility itself. The range of today's VIX candle is ~41% of current spot...matches highest since Liberation day volatility last year https://t.co/CuNNwltgja
Dow Rebounds to 200‑day SMA Amid US‑Iran Talks
I guess we are taking the President's remarks of 'productive' talks between the US and Iran at face value and not just a fear of hitting the 48 hour deadline and having to escalate with a market reaction... Dow has rebound...
Gold's Massive Lower Wick Signals Fresh Volatility
Gold: It's been a busy week and we aren't even done with Monday... Look at the size of today's lower wick: https://t.co/5cLKMYCSuY
Speculators Reach Year‑High Bitcoin Longs, Echo Past Bull Signals
One last COT note: for the Bitcoin believers. Net spec futures positioning has pushed up to its highest net long in a year. Last two peaks in this area aligned to basing before strong bull legs. This time different? https://t.co/0XegxFutnJ
AUDUSD Net Longs Reach Highest Level Since 2017
Another remarkable change in net-speculative positioning comes from AUDUSD. A further nudge in the net long positioning, pushes futures spec interest to the heaviest long since October 2017. A carry drive as rate forecasts pick up https://t.co/sJ0Xl2KxxD
EURUSD Futures Net Long Plummets Record 84K Contracts
In case you missed it, net speculative futures positioning behind $EURUSD posted its biggest weekly 'net drop' on record - an 84K contract drop in the net long. That's a strong move away from the anti-dollar pressure over the past...
Dow Breaks Technical Floor, Catching Fundamental Traders' Attention
Here's my video of what I am watching in the markets over the coming week. Dow Clears A Technical Floor Even Fundamental Traders Will Talk About https://t.co/m5hFw9o7xs
S&P 500 Faces Fourth Weekly Drop, Rare in 15 Years
The $SPX is on pace for its fourth consecutive week's loss. In the past 15 years, there has only been one period where we have had a slide run longer than 4 weeks (May 2022) https://t.co/trHGzh31pk
Markets Delay US‑Iran Ceasefire as Recession Fears Grow
The prediction markets are pushing out expectations of a US-Iran #ceasefire further and further... It's not unrelated that expectations of a #recession are creeping up at the same time... https://t.co/oFshabOLCJ
Nasdaq, S&P Open Lower, Slip Below 200‑Day SMA
It looks like we are going to have a spicy close to the week with the US session opening with a sharp gap lower on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 that dropped both below their 200 SMA. Some serious...
Market Turns Hawkish, Forecasts Only 9bps Cuts in 2024
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
Brent‑WTI Spread Hits $12, Widest Since 2020
Brent crude is trading around 110 while WTI (US-benchmark) is under 100 per barrel. The current Brent-WTI spread is hovering around $12, the widest it has been since April 2020 https://t.co/Ll4QYHc69V
FOMC Likely Holds Rates, Eyes Updated SEP Forecasts
FOMC rate decision incoming. Despite the President's interests, the rate decision itself is fully expected to end in no change. That puts the full interest on the updated forecasts of the SEP and any errant remarks Powell makes in his second to...
Gold Dips Below $5k, Breaks 50‑day SMA After 146 Days
Gold has dropped below 5,000 and cleared its 50-day SMA for the first time in 146 trading days above the moving average. We haven't seen a bullish move of that magnitude (spot above 50 SMA) since March 17, 2008...Remarkable coincidence https://t.co/yoJTpSTTBz
Dow Gaps Down, Stays in Multi‑Week Downtrend
US equities open lower with the Dow gapping down and in turn holding to its multi-week descending channel https://t.co/ZEWi9gngsN
Rising Real Rates Threaten Gold’s Safe‑Haven Appeal
Have developed world interest rates hit their nadir - courtesy of energy prices? Perhaps one point of key implication is the possible pivot is the gold. Already eschewing its safe haven roots, a turn higher in real rates will be...
Iran Tensions Spike Oil Volatility, Brent‑WTI Spread Hits 3‑year High
The headlines around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are flipping daily, which is keeping #oil volatility (realized and implied) elevated. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread has jumped back near its highest in 3 years. https://t.co/h3S81SQWjn
RBA Raises Rates to 4.1% as BOJ Stalls
The RBA hiked its benchmark rate to 4.1%. That is the first major central bank this week of a long list. If you want to pit it against the most prominent carry counterpart and contrast against rate of change, it...
DXY Bears Inside Day, Mirrors VIX Retreat
The $DXY Dollar Index has put in for a bearish 'inside day' from a technical analysis perspective. Happens to align to the $VIX retreat - though the 10-day correlation is waning. Is the Dollar more aligned as a safe haven,...
Why a Fed Rate Cut Now Signals Trouble
My week ahead article: It Would Probably Be a Bad Sign if the Fed Cut Now – Here’s Why https://t.co/iRgDsoYaOg https://t.co/HWPl79e8Ez
Betting Odds Show 15% Chance of US‑Iran Ceasefire
Betting markets are seeing the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by the end of the month deflate to an extremely skeptical 15%... https://t.co/Brj4lTcqSK
Markets Dictate Tariffs, War, and Financial Stability
Article and podcast episode: The ‘TACO Trade’: How Markets Can Shape Tariff, War and Financial Stability Policy https://t.co/O3ySkt05wf
Contentious Fed Decision Will Heighten Market Concerns About Iran
Video of what I'm watching for next week: A Contentious Fed Decision Will Add to Market's Iran Concerns https://t.co/Ikll4zvVyq
Recession Bets Surge to Four‑month High on Prediction Markets
Love them or hate them, prediction markets still have some pointed utility. Betting on a #recession this year has hit a four-month high https://t.co/8ycrvzy65o
Major Indices Poised to Break 200‑Day Trend
The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have all sidled up to their 200-day simple moving averages. One good shove from here and the most prominent benchmarks for 'risk appetite' will break the most recognizable technical analysis cue. It would generate...
US‑Iran Conflict and Monetary Policy Dominate Next Week’s Market Outlook
It looks like we will be focused on two things next week: 1. The economic impact of the US-Iran conflict 2. Monetary Policy Look at the laundry list of central bank decisions on tap... All of them are expected to hold, but we...
Copper Inventories Surge While Prices Hover Near Record Highs
I know Shanghai Copper inventories are at a record and believe CME may be the same...and yet HG is still not far off record high prices. Central bank gold buying - I feel a good proxy for anti-fiat shift -...
Copper‑Gold Ratio Distorted by Gold Surge, Awaiting Normalization
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
Week 12 VIX Peaks as Central Banks Hold Rates
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
Dollar Index Hits Three‑month High as Rate‑cut Bets Shrink
The $DXY Dollar Index has advanced to close at a three-month high while also clearing some channel and Fib resistance on the close. Notably, the market's FOMC rate expectations for 2026 have also extended their shift, now only pricing in...
Nasdaq 100 Approaches 200‑Day SMA, 2nd Small
The Nasdaq 100 is staring down its 200-day SMA just like the Dow and S&P 500. Notably, the index is sporting its 2nd smallest 6-month range (as a percentage of spot) on record: https://t.co/D3FuDpSJFh
US Crude Surges 10%, Volatility Predicted Hormuz Closure
US crude #oil is up nearly 10% - second largest day's rally for the commodity in four years. Looks like the implied volatility was giving a portentous signal ahead of time. It wasn't like the closure of Hormuz was surprising news......
SPX Forms Multi‑Week Descending Channel Amid Bull Trend
What would you say the prevailing trend is for the $SPX? That is a question of time frame of course, but there is a multi-week descending trend channel tentatively forming against the larger bull trend from last April's Liberation Day tariff...
WTI Prices Dip While Volatility Hits Six-Year Peak
WTI crude oil remains well off its intraday high from Monday, but implied volatility - from the $OVX - continues to climb to fresh 6-year highs... https://t.co/VDf2X5NDWk
CPI Meets Forecasts, Rate‑Cut Outlook Hits Low
Both US headline and core #CPI for February were both in-line with expectations and previous: 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. Nevertheless, expectations for FOMC rate cuts through this year are the lowest since May 2nd (-30bps). That won't make Trump happy... https://t.co/9kJhHgDilS
Key CPI, US Budget, and T‑Note Sale Drive Tomorrow
Not an overly active global macro calendar for tomorrow, but an important one. Top of the list is the February #CPI release. Will also watch that US monthly budget statement and 10-year t-note sale. Japan has some worthy data as well...
Dollar Stalls Near 99.50 as Risk Aversion Eases
The Dollar stallout around 99.50 aligned to channel, some Fib standing and of course the curb on severe risk aversion around oil prices. That said, not a lot of pullback in the softened rate cut expectations around the FOMC's 2026...
Trump Overestimated Oil Surge After Strike Decision
President Trump said that he knew oil would go up if he went forward with the strikes...and it went up less than he thought. That's wild. How high was he expecting?
Trump's Negotiation Backstop Mirrors S&P 200‑Day SMA
Perhaps President Trump's negotiation backstop is the 200-day SMA on the $SPX just like the rest of us... https://t.co/Jw1ZvsM3pP
Markets Doubt US-Iran Conflict's End Amid War Debate
The betting market remains skeptical about the end date to the US-Iran conflict being in sight. Interesting that he is calling it an outright 'war'. Executive branch doesn't have the power to declare war. https://t.co/cUBtf0lV7M
US Crude Shows $19 Upper Wick Spike
Now that is what I call a wick... Massive $19 dollar 'upper wick' on US crude oil... https://t.co/FyhlHK9e78
Largest EUR/USD Gap in 11 Months Usually Bounces Back
$EURUSD gapped down -0.6% over the weekend. That is the largest bearish gap in 11 months. Of the last four gaps lower of this size or greater, the pair mounts a quick and significant recovery https://t.co/1MB9YzNdvG
Oil and S&P Futures Keep Falling, Sentiment Wanes
Oil and S&P 500 Futures Extend Tumble to Start the Week – Is Sentiment Giving Way? Wrote this week ahead article on an airplane with awful wifi... https://t.co/PoHGRgI2oL
President Faces Market Pressure for Iran Off‑Ramp
The President is aware and addressing it. How heavy will be the expectation for an offramp on Iran so that he can stabilize the markets?
WTI Crude Surges Over 21% Past $100
WTI crude has shot up as much as 21.7% immediately after the Asia session open. We are well above $100/barrel. #Oil #OilPrices #IranWar2026 https://t.co/vC2re37nrC
Watch Fed Rate‑Cut Signals After NFP Miss
A fundamental thread to keep an eye on after the NFPs miss: the implied FOMC rate cuts through Fed Funds futures overlaid with the $DXY Dollar index. CPI and PCE next week. FOMC rate decision the Wednesday after next https://t.co/Rslg81c0CC
Feb US Jobs Miss Marks Largest Downside Since 2021
US #NFPs dropped in February by -92K vs +70K expected and +126K added in January. This was the biggest downside 'surprise' (-162K) since the pandemic shutdown (specifically Aug 2021) https://t.co/HgS3Y8EA9t
Energy-Driven Inflation Drowns US‑Iran Conflict, Fed Cut Hopes Slump
One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...