Both Iran and White House Must ‘Like’ Ceasefire Terms
Is there a ceasefire to break? At this point, I think we need to have both Iran and the White House 'like' the same social post listing the agreed upon terms of a ceasefire...
Wedge Break Signals Clear Tech Market Direction
This is the kind wedge pattern break that offers clear resolution for tech observers... $DXY Dollar Index: https://t.co/MwWVvohhYo
Gold's Clean Rising Triangle Signals Potential Breakout
This rising triangle that has developed on the Gold chart over the past two weeks is remarkably clean... Plenty of scheduled and unscheduled event risk to kick this into a breakout in either direction https://t.co/BgNWHjDL4n
Oil Volatility Soars as US‑Iran Ceasefire Uncertain
Volatility remains exceptionally elevated for oil today. Back and forth in the headlines around whether the ceasefire will hold between US-Iran. The 10-day ATR has 'settled' at 9% - which very volatile. The US-Brent spread is still positive - which is...
NZ 2-Year Yield Stays Steady Amid RBNZ Hawkish Shift
It is remarkable that the NZ 2-year yield saw little adjustment with the RBNZ's hawkish shift. The NZ-US 2-year spread was essentially unchanged despite the $NZUSD rally. Remarkable
Hormuz Shipping Delays Threaten Early Planting Season
Shipping through Hormuz is backed up and the cease fire and reopening already look at risk. @mike_castle2 , what is the best case scenario (ceasefire holds and we restore shipping) for crops given we are essentially at the start of...
White House Strait Red Line Breached, Ceasefire Foundations Crumble
So one of the White House's red lines - that the Strait has to be fully open and encumbered - has also been breached. Both sides say their requirements have been violated. What is this ceasefire based on...
Iran Accuses US of Ceasefire Breach, Labels Negotiation Terms Unreasonable
Iran saying the US in breach of the ceasefire clauses. Says conditions for bilateral negotiations is unreasonable. I think it interesting that he went out of his way to call it a the President's 'Truth' (rather than social post)...
Macro Data Deluge Competes with US‑Iran Tensions
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
Iran May Require Crypto for Strait Fees, Boosting Bitcoin Use
Are these reports that Iran's demands for Strait fees are to be made in crypto payments? An interesting lining to a potential Bitcoin bid for a prominent and high volume use case...
S&P 500 Jumps 2.1%, Biggest Gap Since Tariff Relief
The $SPX's opening gap today was a massive +2.1% over yesterday's close. That is the biggest bullish gap since May 12th - when the US and China agreed to cut their heavy reciprocal tariffs on each other for 90 days:...
US Oil Faces Largest Daily Drop Since 2011
Though US oil is gradually creeping back up, the daily candle is still sporting its biggest single day drop outside (outside of the negative price fiasco of April 2020) since the market assurances following the Sep 11 attacks (specifically Sep...
Prediction Markets Now Track Hormuz Traffic, Not Ceasefire
The prediction markets have shifted from assessing when the US-Iran will reach their ceasefire to 'When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal': https://t.co/86UZblCs7z
US Threatens 50% Tariffs on Iran‑weapon Suppliers
Getting back into the high and abrupt tariff implementation game. Threatening a 50% tariff (on goods sold to the US) on any country that supplies military weapons to Iran. That seems like it can get closer to a Section 232 approval...
WTI Crude Plunges 15% in Two Hours, Unprecedented Move
WTI - US benchmark - crude is down around -15% after the news alone. Outside of the negative oil prices from 2020, I can't find a 2-hour bearish move of that magnitude... https://t.co/4h8brCQFAk
DXY Slides Post‑ceasefire, H&S Neckline at 99.50
The $DXY has dropped after the ceasefire news. There is some debate that can be had over whether it is a break with follow through. There is a H&S pattern there on the 4hour chart. Neckline around 99.50 https://t.co/uKdc2tAE8J
Gold Surges 2.5% Post‑News, Breaks 20‑Day SMA
Gold acting like a 'risk asset' after the news. XAUUSD has rallied ~2.5% after the news and cleared its 20-day SMA: https://t.co/kI2dynsCl3
SPX Gains 2% Post‑Ceasefire, Reclaims 200‑Day SMA
Big 2% rally from the $SPX after-hours following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran. Back above the 200-day SMA. Now the burden is on markets to capitalize on the 'good news' https://t.co/djEZLD8zgj
Watch for Outlier Trades Before Market Close
Half an hour to the regular close. Keep your eyes out for outlier prediction market trades and options activity on major/liquid equity index derivatives...
WTI‑Brent Spread Hits Near‑record $5.83, Volatility Spikes
The US benchmark crude (WTI) premium to the UK grade (Brent) has extended as high as $5.83 today. Only two other times in history has the spread shot this high. Implied volatility (OVX) has only been higher when crude oil (futures) prices...
Markets Stay Calm Amid Trump's Apocalyptic Warning
President Trump posted "A whole civilization will die tonight..." and the markets seem to be almost totally disregarding the threat... SPX has carved out a restricted range, 5-day ATR is pulling back and the implied overnight volatility in $VIX1D little worried......
Rupee Rally Stalls, Marks Biggest 5‑day Drop Since 2022
The Indian rupee's rally seems to have run out of steam. $USDINR ran a 5-day retreat (rupee a rally) through Friday and notched the biggest 5-day drop since Nov 2022. Put in for a bounce today... https://t.co/qewdcUneMg
SPX Straddles Trendline: Bullish Signals Mixed
Some technical ambiguity from Monday's $SPX performance. The index is above its short/medium term trend channel resistance and the 20-day SMA. Alternatively, still below a zone of resistance around 6,630/20 and the 200-SMA on lowest volume since Dec 31st. Bullish or not?...
Weekly US Inflation Updates Vs. Fed Forecasts Begin
Tomorrow, with mtks back to full liquidity, we will start a run of US inflation updates for the week. We start with the NY Fed's Consumer Inflation Expectations reading, then Thursday we have the Fed's preferred PCE deflator and Friday...
Demand for Daily, Not Constant, Trump Iran Updates
CNBC chyron: 'President Trump to Speak on Iran War' Exhausting. Can we schedule one official update a day or something along those lines?
Dow Breaks Channel Resistance, Lacks Momentum Amid Thin Liquidity
The Dow has moved through the resistance of the past 6-week descending trend channel, but it hasn't really gained traction on the break. Thinned liquidity has undermined any productivity from the break itself. Currently stuck between a very narrow 200 and...
Google Searches for “Recession” Hit All‑time High.
Not great... Worldwide Google news search for the term 'recession' is the highest its been since records began (~Dec 2007). There were literal #recessions over that period... https://t.co/poAknCUGME
US Services Slow, Prices Surge, Jobs Slip
The ISM's US service sector activity report for March was worse than expected. Headline reading dropped to 54.0 from 56.1 - still expanding, above 50.0. Price gauge surges to 70.7 - highest since Oct 2022. Jobs gauge drops to 45.2 - lowest...
Trump’s Strait Deadline Passes as Iran Rejects Ceasefire
So we are theoretically at President Trump's deadline to reopen the Strait and Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal. I guess we wait for a social post from the President or some headlines speaking to an escalation...
Assessing This Week’s Risk Appetite: Bullish or Bearish?
My article for market conditions, themes and top event risk for the week ahead (and some of the charts): Bull or Bear: What is the Prevailing Wind for Risk Appetite? https://t.co/TVXg9nQEKj https://t.co/NqWkTckR31
US Escalation Timeline Set for Monday 10 AM EST
We have another timeline for US escalation in the Iran conflict if there isn't movement on opening the Hormuz Strait: Monday at approximately 10:00 EST. At least the market would be open if they follow through at that time. Active...
US Jobs Surge 178K, Biggest Upside Surprise Since Jan 2024
Given the backdrop of the US economy, the net +178K increase in #NFPs is good relative to the +50K expected, rendering the biggest upside 'surprise' since January 2024 https://t.co/wrWXmWQyXu
Holiday Week Brings Continued Wild Market Volatility
We still have NFPs tomorrow - which can generate volatility through thinned liquidity - but by and large the market is done for the week. What to expect next week? Wild Market Volatility Likely to Continue Through Holiday Conditions https://t.co/cnoL8Uiqb5
Trump’s Tariffs Reversed Within a Week After
Happy Liberation Day anniversary. Exactly a year ago - to the hour - President Trump announced the range of tariffs against a wide range of trade partners. He reverse course 7 days later following a steep market tumble
Market Doubts Trump's Iran Ceasefire Timeline, 25% Chance
Looks like the market's confidence in President Trump's timeline for an end to the US-Iran conflict has dwindled to nothing given the frequent change in tone, deadlines and supposed meetings. Prediction markets currently have a ceasefire by end of April at...
March S&P Divergence Raises Concerns Ahead of Strong April
The $SPX closed out March with a clear contrast to the average performance of the month historically (past 75 years). April has averaged the second best month of the year over that time frame. If we deviate again from that...
WTI Gains $110, Reaches Biggest Brent Premium Since 2008
US-based WTI crude oil is up around 110 with today's surge following President Trumps address to the nation yesterday. Notably, this puts WTI (US-benchmark) to a ~3 premium to Brent. That's the first premium (on a weekly basis) since Jan...
SPX Rallies but Remains Under 20‑day Bearish Trend
We have some whiplash on time frames: the $SPX closed out its worst month in 12, we had the best single-day rally in 10 months Tuesday and the week is currently on pace to be the strongest in 17. All...
Liquidity Decline Puts Market Volatility to New Test
My video for the week ahead: Market Volatility Faces New Test as Liquidity Drops and Data Builds (recorded before Friday's US tumble so even more relevant) https://t.co/fPTls4gx6p
Contrasting Market Odds Reveal Macro Arbitrage Opportunity
There is a macro arb here... The prediction market for 'US forces enter Iran by April 30th' (59%) and 'US-Iran Cease Fire by April 30th' (47%).. https://t.co/W305cB56pm
S&P Faces Sixth Straight Weekly Decline, Rare 15‑Year Event
At the moment, the $SPX is barely in the red on the week. If we close red tomorrow, it will seal a 6th consecutive weeks decline. Only the second such extended tumble in the past 15 years https://t.co/gDCgbrrw8A
S&P Slides to 7‑Month Low, Deal Talk Unconvincing
Saved by the bell... $SPX extended its slide through the end of the day. Lowest close in 7 months but slightly above the intraday low from March 20th. I don't think another 'close to a deal' from the President - with...
Tech‑heavy Indices Slump to Multi‑
Checking in on the previous years' preferred risk asset concentrations. The Mag 7 relative to the broader tech-oriented Nasdaq 100 is at a 9-month low. Nasdaq 100 relative to the Dow has bounced but still well off Oct records. SPX to...
No Congressional Bans, No Safeguards for Admin Traders
If we can't get legislation to make it illegal for members of Congress to trade stocks, I doubt any serious effort will be made to prevent administration employees from trading in this new and opaque prediction market...
Gas Prices Surge Above $4, Highest Since 2022
National retail gas prices have crossed the $4.00 per gallon threshold. Highest prices since August 2022. Just a month ago, the President was saying they were under $2 https://t.co/o1wA1BwG3C
SPX Tests Resistance, Bearish Trend Still Intact
The $SPX is back up to the top of five-week descending trend channel and the 200-day SMA as combined resistance. What's the prevailing trend for the benchmark index? Bullish or bearish? https://t.co/CyJUytkudU
March PMI Slump Hits Australia; US‑Iran Energy Crisis Spreads
Global composite activity PMIs for March universality dropped for the latest month's activity. Australia took the biggest hit. Japan and US still holding up the best relatively speaking. Overall, the US-Iran conflict's energy crisis is spilling over https://t.co/viZdRPVFN9
DXY Volatility Hits 9‑Month High, Range Contracts
Volatility on the $DXY Dollar Index keeps has climbed to a 9 month high - when measured by the 20-day ATR. Meanwhile, the 20-day range has leveled out and contracted. So, scenarios: either volatility drops to accommodate range or breakout...
New 2026 Rate Outlook Recalibrated From Hormuz to DC
Latest episode of our Trading Global Macro Podcast: From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook https://t.co/SWQ3mEPyhx
Dow Holds 200‑Day Support Amid Volatility, Awaiting Trump Impact
Through today's (massive) volatility, the #Dow has held up the 200-day SMA as former support new resistance and maintained the descending channel of the past ~5 weeks. What will the Trump headlines bring for markets tomorrow? https://t.co/t3i7qUOG2I