Amazon's Earnings Beat Sparks Brief Surge, Then Decline
That's an interesting earnings reaction... $AMZN beat topline, which probably earned that initial 3.9% gap higher on the open, but it has reversed all of those gains and more: https://t.co/PPwVRjEAyJ
Yen Surge Suggests Unofficial Intervention, Biggest USDJPY Drop Since 2023
Still no word from an official Japanese gov't source (BOJ or MOF) that this surge in the Yen is direct intervention. That said, looks like intervention. Biggest $USDJPY drop since January 2023 - in the aftermath of intervention back then....
Tech Titans Drive QQQ’s Hourly Momentum
Here's the hourly chart (with afterhours) of the $QQQ along with Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta: https://t.co/f4NQoDqTRx
Google Beats EPS, Shares Surge 4.3% Post‑Earnings
Google earnings generates the biggest of the four top market cap players afterhours ticker reactions. EPS beats $5.11 vs $2.64 expected. Rallied as much as 4.3% after hours to a fresh record high https://t.co/IIOuID3VTN
Nasdaq 100 VIX Differential Highlights Upcoming Mag7 Overlaps
Here's the Nasdaq 100 with the VIX 1-day to 1-month differential and the previous core Mag7 release dates (GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, META overlaps) https://t.co/wNheUeMpHj
Tracking Powell's Exit as Signal of Political Pressure End
A new prediction market that I'll be watching to monitor the probabilities around a theme rather than a market: When Jerome Powell will leave the Fed board. Will mark end of political pressure. Similar to Hormuz normality as gauge of...
Powell Adopts PR Role to Defend Fed Independence
Seems Powell is going to take up a pseudo PR role for Fed independence now that he is handing off the Chairmanship role. They are putting out very clear messaging pushing back on the political pressure.
Powell: Neutral Rate Uncertain, but We're Near It
Powell says we can't know what the neutral rate is definitively, but says we are pretty close to it now
Powell Stays on Board for Strategic Legal Protection
Powell gets access to legal counsel provided through the Federal Reserve (so at the government's expensive) while still on the Board. His decision to remain on the board until the legal actions are fully behind him is probably as much a...
Powell Stays on for Lawsuits, Not Politics
Powell says his staying on is not a political statement to deny Trump an appointee - says he is staying on due to the lawsuits. Says he long expected to retire and was looking forward to it
Fed Independence Crucial: Expert’s Ready Written Response
He was ready for that question. Written answer - on how important Fed independence is
Legal Lawsuits Against Fed Drive Decision to Stay
Says he is concerned about the legal attacks on the Fed and that influenced his decision to remain. He clarifies it's not verbal attacks but the lawsuits on the institution
Powell Stays on Board Until Lawsuit Fully Resolved
Powell says he welcomed the DOJ's dropping the lawsuit. Commits not to leave the board until the lawsuit is 'well and truly over'. He plans to stay on as a governor for an undefined period.
FOMC Holds Rates, Four Dissent Over Easing Bias
Interesting. The FOMC holds at 3.50-3.75% as expected, but there were four dissents - 1 voting (Miran) cut and 3 opposing an inclusion of an "easing bias" in the statement
Oil Rally Pushes WTI Past $105, Spikes OVX Volatility
US benchmark oil (WTI) is above 105 on a more than 5% climb today. Brent is near 110. Notably, the rally is stirring a commensurate rebound in the OVX volatility index - similar to the Mar 25 - Apr 2...
USDCAD Reflects Negative Yield Spread Despite Higher US Rates
Even though the US benchmark rate is ~150 basis points higher than the Canadian benchmark, the 2-year to benchmark yield spread between the US and Canada is -0.53% (-53 bps). $USDCAD vs that premium differential: https://t.co/hp6WgKtRCI
Conflicting Consumer Confidence: Record Low vs Rising Survey
So, while the UofM's US Consumer Confidence survey for April dropped to a record low (49.8) in its more than 70 year history, the Conference Board's survey advanced a third straight month... Which one do you think is more indicative... https://t.co/S62aDosNxP
Gold Breaks Key Fib Levels, Needs Fundamental Push
A clean technical breakdown from gold - clearing a couple of overlapping fib levels around 4,675/55. Looks similar to that Feb-March H&S breakdown, but we'll need some fundamental charge to render the same kind of follow through... https://t.co/LB6GtFfSVL
Tuesday's Packed Agenda: Rates, Trade, Earnings, Confidence
It was a quiet start to the week for scheduled event risk, but things are picking up fast. Tuesday holds: BOJ rate decision with quarterly outlook; Hong Kong trade balance; Coke and BP earnings and US Conference Board consumer confidence...
S&P Hits Record, Barely Climbs, Tightest Range
Fresh record high for the $SPX, but an absolute crawl with just a 0.1% advance and the smallest daily trading range since January 27th. Partly returning to the dead conditions before the US-Iran conflict, partly anticipation of FOMC and Mag...
Canada's $25bn Fund Ranks 53rd Globally
Would make it the 53rd largest sovereign wealth fund behind Poland's PFR - a small sum from Canada, which is the 11th largest country by GDP.
Nasdaq Hits Record Amid Geopolitical Tension and Earnings Outlook
My article for the week ahead (and my FOMC scenario table): Nasdaq at Record, US-Iran Unresolved, FOMC and Mag 7 Earnings On Tap https://t.co/XDQ8tBTF50 https://t.co/FrsmP5gFBA
Bitcoin's Record Low Volatility Signals Upcoming Surge
I know it's the weekend, but volatility in Bitcoin has ground to extreme low. At the moment, the $BTCUSD 4-day historical range (as %age of spot) is lowest since Sep 15. Only 4 other times has it gotten this quiet...
Markets Brace for Rates, Earnings, GDP, Iran Tensions
Here's my video for the week ahead: With Rate Decisions, Tech Earnings and GDP On Tap, Markets Can Ill-Afford Fresh U.S.-Iran Headlines https://t.co/ahCfP2J573 https://t.co/Kx6z0sEzid
No Recession Yet, Just Fear and Hallmarks
There is no recession - it just seems to have a number of the hallmarks of one and there seems to be record levels of concern around one... #recession https://t.co/HBGocSyWzf
US Deficit Ballooning as Fed Expands Balance Sheet
I know there is a lot going on with a lot of headlines (US-Iran, monetary policy, consumer confidence, etc); but worth remembering the ballooning US deficit and efforts to facilitate it (like the Fed balance sheet) still matter: https://t.co/4H1YDnmu7Y
Expect Powell to Dodge Political Pressure at Final Press Conference
I would like to hear Powell's unvarnished opinion on political pressure on the Fed next week in his final press conference following the FOMC decision...but I suspect he will abstain do to 'respect for the office' or some such
Nasdaq/Dow Ratio Hits Record, Tech Leads Market
The Nasdaq 100 to Dow ratio (tech to blue chip) gapped to a record high this morning - overtaking October's previous peak. Intel earnings certainly helped. Is this a sign that AI and tech is a leading theme again? Is...
Tesla's Earnings Beat, yet Weakest Nasdaq Correlation
Tesla offered the first earnings update of the Mag 7 last night, and $TSLA gapped down today after the headline beat (slight revenue miss and capital expenditure plans were higher than expected). That said, of the Mag 7, Tesla has...
Dollar Climbs, Risk Appetite Sours, Markets Tumble
Dollar has rallied; VIX spiked; equities, gold, emerging markets and Bitcoin have dropped. News of Ghalibaf bowing out of US-Iran negotiations not being taken favorably from a 'risk appetite' perspective
UK Business Confidence Plummets to 45-Year Low
UK quarterly business confidence from the CBI crashed in its update this morning (-27 to -38). Worst balance of confidence - outside of the pandemic - in 45 years... https://t.co/SpvRFSzNHK
Global PMIs Surpass Forecasts; Eurozone Contracts
The Composite PMIs - timely proxies for GDP for the major economies - largely beat expectations for April's update. The exception was the Eurozone and major member components, which missed forecasts significantly and slipped into contraction: https://t.co/g0G7ZJWDN1
Dropping US‑Iran Talk Deadlines From My Calendar
I am going to stop putting in proposed deadlines for the US-Iran talks into my macro calendar. Changing it intraday at this point...
June 1 Traffic Normalization Odds Dip to 46%
Meanwhile, probability that the traffic in the Strait will return to normal by June 1st lowest level since April 13th (46%) https://t.co/ZSS8VlOSXs
SPX Records Smallest Trading Day Since Dec 30 Amid Quiet Rally
We still have a little under 2 hours of trade left in the day; but at present, smallest $SPX trading day since Dec 30th. Dead quiet and at record highs. Nothing going on and no risk apparently... https://t.co/O6XPk2wIlD
WTI Climbs 11% as US‑UK Spread Flips Dramatically
US oil (WTI) is up 11% on the week again as we move back above 93. Meanwhile, the US-UK (WTI-Brent) spread has swung back from the unusual positive extreme (+2.50, highest since Nov 2008) back to negative extreme (-8.75). Basis...
Nasdaq 100 Record High Mirrors Past Bull Trend Starts
The Nasdaq 100 is trading at a new record high - much of the work being done by the bullish gap on the open. Spot is still 7.4% above the 20-day SMA - which is comparable to May '25, Jan...
Prediction Market Gives 35% Chance Hormuz Traffic Normal by May 15
Since energy and capital markets are growing increasingly complacent on US-Iran headlines, have to look to more direct prediction markets to get actual takes on progress. Kalshi's market for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal by May...
Risk Appetite High, but Fundamentals Could Crumble Soon
I know the market is still charged on risk appetite and more than willing to persist on complacency, but if the fundamental situation starts to breakdown...this 4hr chart of the $SPX emini... https://t.co/wcb9ZHoyFs
US‑Iran Talks Stall Unless Blockade Is Lifted
Looks like US-Iran talks will no go forward unless the US lifts its blockade. So what happens: - US lifts blockade to urge talks forward - Pass deadline and military actions taken - Nothing changes and we pass deadline with no escalations
Avis Budget Group's $CAR Surges 500% in Short Squeeze
Impressive short squeeze in the wild: Avis Budget Group. $CAR is up over 500% over the past month and short volume volatility exceptionally elevated: https://t.co/1tCAmuSfgr
Warsh Signals Normalcy, Yet Bias May Influence 2026 Rate Cuts
Warsh is presenting himself as if he intends to be a normal Fed Chair. Either he intends to put his thumb on the scale despite what he is saying in Congress or the President is going to be disappointed. Dollar...
Warsh Vows Independence; Markets React with Caution
Overly simplistic headline I expect to see in Google News: "Trump's Fed Chairman Pick Kevin Warsh Says he Will be Independent of Political Influence, Stocks Retreat"
Dow Gaps Up Strongly, Yet Still Below Record
The US indices have gapped up on the open. The Dow's gap looks more productive from a technical perspective. Still not back at record highs for $DJIA though https://t.co/m7jMCR4RF8
US‑Iran Talks Will Steer Markets over Next 48 Hours
Here's the top global macro event risk over the next 48 hours. I think there is a lot of important backdrop to the likes of US retail sales, UK jobs and Tesla earnings....however, I think the US-Iran negotiations will be responsible...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Iran's Currency to Record Weakness
Read a good summary of the economic impact of the Hormuz blockade on Iran by Foreign Affairs. A good rudimentary reminder of the pressure is the exchange rate: USD/IRR is 1.320 mln and black market looks to be around 1.512...
High‑stakes Middle East Drama Fades as Public Interest Wanes
Despite reports of a US seizure of an Iranian flagged cargo ship, Iran's threatening to boycott talks, Trump threatening bombs would fall if the ceasefire ends w/o resolution and then suggestions that talks were on for Wed (all in 24...
Nasdaq 100 Overextended: 8% Above 20‑Day SMA
A look at some of the 'over-extended' aspects of Nasdaq 100: $NDQ rallied peak-to-trough 17% over 13 trading days. The index was more than 8% above its 20-day SMA Friday. Stretched above the 2 std deviation above the 20-day SMA. What now? Steady,...
Iran‑U.S. Standoff Persists Amid Weekend Political Theater
So it is now being suggested that the breakdown over the weekend was political theater. Iran still considers US blockade a redline and unwilling to give up its missile program. The US will not budge on enrichment and Iran control of...
Nasdaq Surges as Markets Overlook US‑Iran Tensions
My article for the week ahead: Nasdaq and Risk Assets Soar as Markets Ignore US-Iran Questions https://t.co/oj3oTBAvsM https://t.co/XKDWaWJJbx