Jonathan McDowell

Jonathan McDowell

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Astrophysicist tracking launches and satellites; author of Jonathan's Space Report newsletter.

Firefly Launch Objects Possibly Misidentified by SpaceTrack
SocialApr 22, 2026

Firefly Launch Objects Possibly Misidentified by SpaceTrack

The last Firefly launch put one object (A) in a 222 x 366 km orbit, and one (B) in 390 x 408 km. B's still in orbit, A just reentered. SpaceTrack say A was the @LockheedMartin Martin...

By Jonathan McDowell
GPS III SV10 Enters 388×20201 Km Transfer Orbit
SocialApr 21, 2026

GPS III SV10 Enters 388×20201 Km Transfer Orbit

GPS III SV10 tracked in a 388 x 20201 km x 55.0 deg transfer orbit following successful launch on Falcon 9 from Canaveral at 0653 UTC

By Jonathan McDowell
Possible BlueBird 7 Reentry Video, Timing Discrepancy Noted
SocialApr 21, 2026

Possible BlueBird 7 Reentry Video, Timing Discrepancy Noted

The following video by @MvCrisis was reportedly taken in the Maldives at 0355-0400 UTC Apr 20. It's possible it shows the @AST_SpaceMobile BlueBird 7 reentry, although the SpaceForce TLE says this time was 25 min too early to be BB7,...

By Jonathan McDowell
Progress MS-32 Undocks, Set for South Pacific Reentry
SocialApr 21, 2026

Progress MS-32 Undocks, Set for South Pacific Reentry

The Progress MS-32 cargo ship undocked from the aft port on Zvezda at 2208 UTC Apr 20. The deorbit burn was due to occur at 0114 UTC Apr 21 with reentry expected over the S Pacific at 0205 UTC.

By Jonathan McDowell
Low‑Thrust BE‑3U May Extend
SocialApr 20, 2026

Low‑Thrust BE‑3U May Extend

Question for those more expert on rocket engines than me: if the BE-3U fires at low thrust, does the stage try to fire longer to compensate? How plausible that it fired the normal amount and had prop left over for...

By Jonathan McDowell
Space Force Confirms BlueBird 7 Reentry on April 20
SocialApr 20, 2026

Space Force Confirms BlueBird 7 Reentry on April 20

DEORBIT - Space Force just issued a decay notice for BlueBird 7, saying it reentered on Apr 20 (with no further details)

By Jonathan McDowell
Space Force Releases Likely Bogus BB7 Search Orbit Data
SocialApr 20, 2026

Space Force Releases Likely Bogus BB7 Search Orbit Data

Well this is REALLY WEIRD. Space Force just issued another BB7 orbit with an epoch of 1235 UTC yesterday and a nominal orbit of 455 x 462 km x 49.5 deg. I suspect this orbit is BOGUS and is a...

By Jonathan McDowell
BlueBird-7’s Orbit Shows only Half Required Δv
SocialApr 20, 2026

BlueBird-7’s Orbit Shows only Half Required Δv

A second orbit dataset from SpaceForce for the BlueBird-7 sat shows it in a 265 x 485 km x 43.0 deg orbit, indicating that the upper stage delivered about 1000 m/s, mostly changing orbital inclination. This is about half the...

By Jonathan McDowell
China's Daqi‑2 and Qianfan‑07 Meet Planned Orbits
SocialApr 19, 2026

China's Daqi‑2 and Qianfan‑07 Meet Planned Orbits

China's Daqi-2 satellite cataloged in a 682 x 689 km x 98.3 deg orbit in 1025 LTDN orbit plane. The Qianfan 07 orbits are now out, showing 800 x 820 km x 89.0 deg deployment orbits as expected.

By Jonathan McDowell
Space Force Tracks Blue Origin Launch’s Precarious Orbit
SocialApr 19, 2026

Space Force Tracks Blue Origin Launch’s Precarious Orbit

The @BlueOrigin @AST_SpaceMobile launch has been tracked by Space Force as catalog 68765, 2026-85A, in a 154 x 494 km x 36.1 deg orbit. Epoch is 1138 UTC which is the time of SECO-1, so this may not be the...

By Jonathan McDowell
SECO-1 Orbit Estimated Between 116×420 Km And
SocialApr 19, 2026

SECO-1 Orbit Estimated Between 116×420 Km And

Best estimate for the SECO-1 orbit given the slow observed decrease in altitude in the webcast is somewhere in the range of 164 x 380 km to 116 x 420km, depending on flight path angle at cutoff which was somewhere...

By Jonathan McDowell
Insufficient Data, but Webcast Velocity
SocialApr 19, 2026

Insufficient Data, but Webcast Velocity

Unfortunately there's not enough data on Blue's webcast to derive a SECO-1 orbit, but it may have been fine - the velocity on the screen is in the rotating Earth frame and seems reasonable, for those worried it was too...

By Jonathan McDowell
New Glenn Launch Undershoots Orbit, Data Pending
SocialApr 19, 2026

New Glenn Launch Undershoots Orbit, Data Pending

LAUNCH at 1125 UTC Apr 19 of New Glenn flight 3 with AST SpaceMobile-007 from Canaveral. Second stage underperformance and lower than planned final orbit, but still waiting for Space Force tracking data for details

By Jonathan McDowell
Chinese Astronauts Conduct 5‑hour Spacewalk on April 16
SocialApr 17, 2026

Chinese Astronauts Conduct 5‑hour Spacewalk on April 16

Astronauts Zhang L. and Wu F. made a spacewalk from the Chinese Space Station on Apr 16 from about 1206 UTC to 1736 UTC

By Jonathan McDowell
CZ-4C Launches Daqi-2 Atmospheric Satellite From Jiuquan
SocialApr 17, 2026

CZ-4C Launches Daqi-2 Atmospheric Satellite From Jiuquan

LAUNCH at 0410 UTC Apr 17 of a CZ-4C from Jiuquan with the Daqi-2 atmospheric research satellite

By Jonathan McDowell
Soyuz-2-1b Launches Kosmos Satellites Into 457×547 Km Orbit
SocialApr 17, 2026

Soyuz-2-1b Launches Kosmos Satellites Into 457×547 Km Orbit

LAUNCH at about 2318 UTC Apr 16 of one or more Kosmos satellites by Soyuz-2-1b from Plesetsk to a 457 x 547 km x 98.3 deg orbit (h/t @Dillonshrop06 )

By Jonathan McDowell
Transporter 6 TLE Data Released; Qian
SocialApr 16, 2026

Transporter 6 TLE Data Released; Qian

TLE orbit data now out for the Transporter 6 launch (Mar 30); nothing yet for last week's Qianfan launch.

By Jonathan McDowell
Starlink Failure Creates Uncatalogued Debris, Orbit Now Decaying
SocialApr 15, 2026

Starlink Failure Creates Uncatalogued Debris, Orbit Now Decaying

Starlink 34343 failed on Mar 29 in a fatal energetic event which raised its apogee by 30 km and generated observed (but so far uncataloged) debris. Since then the orbit has undergone natural decay. Current orbit is...

By Jonathan McDowell
Precise Data Shows CSS Farther From Artemis than ISS
SocialApr 14, 2026

Precise Data Shows CSS Farther From Artemis than ISS

A more precise calculation gives a max CSS-Artemis distance as 419643 km at 2220:08 UTC; max ISS-Artemis was 419581 km at 2222:05 UTC. My earlier calculation neglected a coordinate frame precession between the Artemis and ISS/CSS data...

By Jonathan McDowell
Artemis–Chinese Space Station Distance Might Exceed Estimates
SocialApr 13, 2026

Artemis–Chinese Space Station Distance Might Exceed Estimates

Oh, but wait.... A preliminary check suggests the Artemis- Chinese Space Station max distance may be even larger. I'll have to do a more careful analysis

By Jonathan McDowell
Ukraine’s Yuzhnoe Previously Built Massive Solid Rocket Boosters
SocialApr 13, 2026

Ukraine’s Yuzhnoe Previously Built Massive Solid Rocket Boosters

Very interesting. Do we know anything about these rocket boosters? They are new to me. Ukraine's Yuzhnoe did build the RT-23 and R-39 solid missiles (2.4m dia) in the Soviet era.

By Jonathan McDowell
Artemis 2 Set Record: 413,145 Km From Earth
SocialApr 13, 2026

Artemis 2 Set Record: 413,145 Km From Earth

Artemis 2 was the furthest human voyage from Earth. Per the final JPL Horizons trajectory I estimate the max distance from the geocenter was 413145 km at 2304 UTC Apr 6 (about 4 km less and 1...

By Jonathan McDowell
Heat Shield Fine Despite White Discoloration, Says Jared
SocialApr 12, 2026

Heat Shield Fine Despite White Discoloration, Says Jared

Jared clarifies the status of the heat shield; some observers were concerned by an area of white discoloration but it's no big deal.

By Jonathan McDowell
Falcon 9 Lifts ISS Cargo as China Readies Jielong‑3 Launch
SocialApr 11, 2026

Falcon 9 Lifts ISS Cargo as China Readies Jielong‑3 Launch

LAUNCH at 1141 UTC Apr 11 of a Falcon 9 from Canaveral with the ISS Cygnus NG-24 cargo ship SS Steven R. Nagel. Also waiting to confirm LAUNCH at 1133 UTC of a Jielong-3 from the Yanjiang area in the South...

By Jonathan McDowell
Starlink Group 17‑21 Launches From Vandenberg at 0504 UTC
SocialApr 11, 2026

Starlink Group 17‑21 Launches From Vandenberg at 0504 UTC

LAUNCH at 0504 UTC Apr 11 of Starlink Group 17-21 from Vandenberg Space Force Base

By Jonathan McDowell
Only One Artemis II CubeSat Achieved Orbit Boost, Others Failed
SocialApr 11, 2026

Only One Artemis II CubeSat Achieved Orbit Boost, Others Failed

Three of the four Artemis II cubesats were meant to fire propulsion systems to raise perigee and stay in orbit. Only one (Saudi Arabia's SWC-1) managed to do so; TACHELES and K-RadCube reentered at first perigee.

By Jonathan McDowell
NASA Celebrates Flawless, Triumphant Mission Success
SocialApr 11, 2026

NASA Celebrates Flawless, Triumphant Mission Success

Warmest congratulations to the entire @NASA family for an outstandingly successful and perfectly executed mission.

By Jonathan McDowell
Capsule Lands Right-Side-Up: Stable One Confirmed
SocialApr 11, 2026

Capsule Lands Right-Side-Up: Stable One Confirmed

Glad to see the capsule is "Stable One". (There are two stable positions for a capsule after splashdown. "Stable Two" is NASA speak for "upside down".)

By Jonathan McDowell
Command Module Executes 3 M/S Raise
SocialApr 10, 2026

Command Module Executes 3 M/S Raise

Integrity CM 3m/s raise burn using the small thrusters on the command module to ensure good distance from the abandoned service module

By Jonathan McDowell
US Space Force Launches STP‑S29A on Minotaur IV
SocialApr 7, 2026

US Space Force Launches STP‑S29A on Minotaur IV

LAUNCH of the US Space Force STP-S29A mission on a Minotaur IV from Vandenberg at 1133 UTC Apr 7

By Jonathan McDowell
China’s CZ‑8 Lifts Qian
SocialApr 7, 2026

China’s CZ‑8 Lifts Qian

LAUNCH at 1332 UTC Apr 7 of a Chang Zheng 8 from Hainan with batch 7 of the commercial Qianfan internet satellite system - the first Qianfan launch since Oct 2025

By Jonathan McDowell
Tianshi‑1 Deployment Near 66A Raises Orbital Ambiguity
SocialApr 7, 2026

Tianshi‑1 Deployment Near 66A Raises Orbital Ambiguity

China's Tianshi-1 appears to have been deployed from the Xinzhengcheng-02 parent satellite; object 66D was cataloged, but has TLEs that put it stationkeeping within 1 km of 66A. More data needed for clarity.

By Jonathan McDowell
Moon‑
SocialApr 7, 2026

Moon‑

In a frame moving with the center of the Moon, the little loop goes away and is replaced by a hyperbola. Cyan dot is the sphere of the moon to scale, dashed line is the lunar sphere of influence....

By Jonathan McDowell
Artemis 2’s Flight Path Overlaid on Moon’s Orbit
SocialApr 7, 2026

Artemis 2’s Flight Path Overlaid on Moon’s Orbit

Here's the Artemis 2 trajectory in a geocentric inertial frame projected onto the equatorial plane. The cyan track shows the motion of the moon during the mission. https://t.co/deCYMUyDal

By Jonathan McDowell
Integrity Exits Moon's Gravity, Heading Back Earth
SocialApr 6, 2026

Integrity Exits Moon's Gravity, Heading Back Earth

Integrity has now passed lunar closest approach and is climbing uphill in the lunar gravity field. In about 18 hours it will leave the lunar gravitational sphere of influence and start falling back towards Earth.

By Jonathan McDowell
Artemis Reaches 6,544 Km Perilune, 413,146 Km
SocialApr 6, 2026

Artemis Reaches 6,544 Km Perilune, 413,146 Km

At 2302 TDB (2300 UTC) Artemis will reach a perilune of about 6544 km altitude. Four minutes later it will reach a maximum distance to the geocenter of 413146 km. [Blue: geodistance; Red: height above moon; Magenta: geocent radial...

By Jonathan McDowell
Integrity Spacecraft Reaches Lunar Orbit; 25‑28th Humans Depart Earth
SocialApr 6, 2026

Integrity Spacecraft Reaches Lunar Orbit; 25‑28th Humans Depart Earth

The Integrity spacecraft just entered the lunar gravitational sphere of influence, at 0438 UTC Apr 6. Wiseman, Glover, Koch and Hansen are now the 25th to 28th humans to have left terrestrial space.

By Jonathan McDowell
Artemis Escapes Moon Thanks to Sufficient Escape Velocity
SocialApr 5, 2026

Artemis Escapes Moon Thanks to Sufficient Escape Velocity

Good question in the press conf: once it's in the grip of lunar gravity how come Artemis gets out again later? Because it has escape velocity relative to the Moon. The Moon is dominating its motion, but it's going...

By Jonathan McDowell
Satellite Lifetime Drops Sharply With Altitude, Study Shows
SocialApr 5, 2026

Satellite Lifetime Drops Sharply With Altitude, Study Shows

Today's calculation: how long does a satellite in a circular orbit stay up when it stops all reboost burns? Depends on a lot of things, especially solar activity, but let's average over all of that and do a Kaplan-Meier analysis...

By Jonathan McDowell
Artemis II Cubesats Tracked; ATENEA Likely Re
SocialApr 4, 2026

Artemis II Cubesats Tracked; ATENEA Likely Re

The Artemis II cubesats TACHELES, SWC-1 and K-RADCUBE have now been identified on Space-Track. ATENEA was not cataloged+was expected to have reentered at 1st perigee since it had no propulsion to raise its orbit. K-RAD may also have...

By Jonathan McDowell
Space Force Confirms Meridian-M Launched Into Expected Molniya Orbit
SocialApr 4, 2026

Space Force Confirms Meridian-M Launched Into Expected Molniya Orbit

Space Force orbit data show the Meridian-M satellite launched yesterday in a 996 x 39714 km x 62.8 deg 'Molniya' orbit as expected

By Jonathan McDowell
NYT's Shocking Decline: How the Gray Lady Fell
SocialApr 3, 2026

NYT's Shocking Decline: How the Gray Lady Fell

Incredible .... how the Gray Lady has fallen. How did this get as far as print @nytimes ?

By Jonathan McDowell
Three Artemis‑II Cubesats Show Successful Perigee‑Raise Burn
SocialApr 3, 2026

Three Artemis‑II Cubesats Show Successful Perigee‑Raise Burn

Three of the four Artemis-II cubesats have now been cataloged; orbits are 149 x 70247 km, 492 x 70228 km, and 61 x 70276 km. Suggests at least one made a successful perigee raising burn, but waiting for more data...

By Jonathan McDowell
Soyuz-2-1a Launch From Plesetsk Carries Meridian Satellite
SocialApr 3, 2026

Soyuz-2-1a Launch From Plesetsk Carries Meridian Satellite

LAUNCH at 0628 UTC of a Soyuz-class rocket from Plesetsk. Suspected to be a Soyuz-2-1a/Fregat with a Meridian military comms satellite, but we'll have to wait for Space Force tracking to confirm that.

By Jonathan McDowell
Tianlong-3 Launch Unconfirmed Amid Failure Speculation
SocialApr 3, 2026

Tianlong-3 Launch Unconfirmed Amid Failure Speculation

LAUNCH of Tianlong-3 from Jiuquan at about 0417 UTC. Speculation it has failed but no official info yet.

By Jonathan McDowell
Integrity Crew Shatters Isaacman 1400 Km Record 13 Minutes Post‑launch
SocialApr 3, 2026

Integrity Crew Shatters Isaacman 1400 Km Record 13 Minutes Post‑launch

Per a question asked in the presser, Integrity's crew broke the Isaacman height record of 1400 km at 2306 UTC Apr 1, a mere 13 minutes after launch.

By Jonathan McDowell
Artemis II Begins TLI Burn, Reaching Lunar Distance
SocialApr 2, 2026

Artemis II Begins TLI Burn, Reaching Lunar Distance

The Artemis II Integrity spacecraft is now coasting downwards and will reach perigee of about 195 km late on Apr 2. At 2349:50 UTC it will make the TLI (Trans-Lunar Injection) burn, a 388 m/s burn lasting 5m51s to raise...

By Jonathan McDowell
Artemis 2 to Raise Perigee, Reaching 191×70,133 Km Orbit
SocialApr 2, 2026

Artemis 2 to Raise Perigee, Reaching 191×70,133 Km Orbit

Next major Artemis 2 milestone is a perigee-raise rocket burn carried out at 1130 UTC, near apogee. Resulting orbit will be around 191 x 70133 km.

By Jonathan McDowell
Seventeenth Rassvet‑3 Debris Cataloged, Upper Stage Still Unidentified
SocialApr 2, 2026

Seventeenth Rassvet‑3 Debris Cataloged, Upper Stage Still Unidentified

A 17th object has been cataloged associated with the Rassvet-3 launch. Not yet clear which of the 17 objects is the Soyuz upper stage.

By Jonathan McDowell