JunkBondInvestor
Credit analyst focused on high yield bonds, leveraged loans, and distressed/special situations with frequent deal/document analysis.
TCW Wipes Red Lobster Equity, Keeps Full Debt Exposure
TCW marked its Red Lobster equity down 98%. Its PIK'ing private credit loan maturing in 2029? Par Equity at zero and debt at 100 in the same company. C'mon, are you kidding me?
Levered Lending Cycles Always End the Same, Just Bigger
The FT pointing out what should be obvious: every levered lending cycle ends roughly the same way. New financing innovation, rapid growth, retail participation expands, crisis, etc Each cycle is bigger. Each wave of retail participation arrives later
AA DIP Tranche Hits QofE, Global Refi Begins
The year is June 2027. First Brands’ new money ultra-priority DIP Tranche AA just traded down to 50 cents. Great news though - the QofE just hit. Finally, the global refi can commence.
Yahoo Launches $1.6B
Yahoo kicking off a $1.6B refi. S+550 at 98.5. Mid-to-high 9s. Apollo paid $5B for this in 2021. Existing debt matures in 2027. Let’s see how this goes
PE Market Crashes: Deals, Exits Plummet,
PE deal values down 36% Exits down 33% Fundraising weakest since 2018 LPs “completely risk off” on software The $4T PE exit backlog is getting bigger…
Blue Owl’s Credit Woes Mask Hidden Asset Value
$OWL hit all-time lows today after record redemption requests. The credit business deserves every bit of this. But Blue Owl also has a GP Stakes business and a real assets business that have zero direct connection to software loans or BDC redemptions. Ran...
Oracle Data Center Debt Costs Surge to High‑Yield Levels
Wow, borrowing costs on Oracle data center projects have widened to as high as S+450 $ORCL is IG. The data centers being built for Oracle are pricing like high yield.
Only One‑Third of 2026 Data Center Capacity Under Construction
12GW of data center capacity supposed to come online in 2026. Only a 1/3rd is actually under construction. The capex is committed. The infrastructure can't be built fast enough.
Mativ's 95¢ Pricing Ranks Among Deepest US Lev Discounts
Mativ priced at 95 cents. Only 2 US lev loans have priced at deeper discounts this year.
AI Needs $4‑5T Investment to Reach $2T Revenue
According to Apollo, $4-5T in AI infrastructure investment needed by 2030 To earn an acceptable return, AI revenue needs to hit $1.5-2T annually. Current AI end-user revenue: $35-65B. Revenues just need to 30-40x from here
Cliffwater’s $33B Fund Cracks Under Redemption Pressure
Cliffwater is a $33B fund invested in 50+ other funds that are all gating simultaneously. $4.6B in unfunded commitments. 14% redemption requests. S&P negative outlook. “It all works great when no one wants their money back.”
Jefferies Flags Multiple Hits
Jefferies: “There’s some noise in our numbers” The noise: MFS collapse, First Brands fraud, $36M telecom writedown, 24% decline in fixed income revenue.
Egan‑Jones Filled Private Credit Rating Gap, Now Under SEC Scrutiny
The private credit boom needed ratings. The big agencies were slow. Egan-Jones filled the gap. 20 analysts. Thousands of ratings. Insurers relied on them. Only now is the SEC is asking questions. 🤔
Ares Honors Few Redemptions, Claims Stakeholder Alignment
Ares: 11.6% redemption requests. Honored 5%. Called it “aligned with the best interests of all stakeholders.” The stakeholders who wanted their money back might define “best interests” differently.
EA's $15B Debt Oversubscribed, $25B Orders Signal Open Markets
$25B in orders on $EA’s $15B debt deal. Oversubscribed. Getting done. Capital markets are wide open… For the right issuers at the right price with the right Saudi SWF backstop.
