U.S. Export Sales Meet Expectations; Corn, Beans, Wheat Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. export sales met trade expectations. Corn stayed above average for the time of year, led by Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela & unknown. China led in net bean sales (though most were switched from unknown), Egypt was 2nd. Old-crop wheat sales were above recent avgs. https://t.co/SkDLp7cm1e
Nov Soybeans Reach Record High, Rare April Spike
📈Nov CBOT soybeans inked a new yearly high of $11.78 per bushel in overnight trade on Thursday, replacing the old high from March 12. They have since eased. Setting annual highs in April is rare for new-crop soybeans. May is a...
US Soybean Planting Hits Record Pace, Corn Also Ahead
🇺🇸U.S. soybean planting is on a record fast pace as farmers prefer to plant beans earlier. Most states are many percentage points ahead of average (except Iowa, which has been wet). But wet weather/early bean planting haven't held back corn planting,...
U.S. Aims for Expanded China Agricultural Trade Deal
🇺🇸🇨🇳The U.S. will be seeking a wider agreement on agricultural trade purchases from China when Trump and Xi meet next month. https://t.co/eXKPiy2XZF
Winter Wheat Health Plummets in Five Key States
🌾Five of the top U.S. winter wheat states (63% of the 2026 planted area) carry concerning health ratings. The shares of wheat rated poor or very poor in these five states are well above recent averages. But more notably, conditions have...
USDA Reports 295k Tons U.S. Corn Sold for 2025/26
USDA confirms the following sales of U.S. corn for delivery in 2025/26: ▪️100,000 metric tons to Colombia ▪️195,000 metric tons to unknown destinations
US
🇺🇸U.S. winter wheat conditions fell below all trade estimates to 30% good/excellent. That's approaching 2022 & 2023, among the lowest scoring years in recent memory. Despite some wet weather, U.S. corn & bean planting pace met expectations and remain ahead of...
China's Q1 Grain Imports Rebound, yet Lag Recent Highs
🇨🇳China’s Q1 2026 grain imports rebounded sharply on the year but remained below the bigger volumes seen in recent years. Still, it's a supportive trend for exporters. However, soybean and pork imports weren't quite as robust as in Q1 2025. https://t.co/NEI8MRwGDR
Soy Crush Pace Signals Full-Year Grain Outlook
🌾Grain markets have many moving parts right now and it's not easy to keep up. My latest newsletters covered: ▪️U.S. soy crush and what pace says about full-year prospects ▪️Funds' under-the-radar move in CBOT corn ▪️El Nino & U.S. corn Access the full analysis...
2026 Winter Wheat Drought Hits Record Jump, 68% Coverage
🌾Drought coverage in U.S. winter wheat country was unchanged on the week at 68% - near 2022's weekly record. But the acceleration is more concerning, setting 2026 apart from the rest. Coverage has risen 26 percentage points since late Jan, the...
US Corn Exports Surge; China Still Owes 2025/26 Soybeans
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export sales remained above average, led by Japan, South Korea & Mexico. Soybean volumes were relatively modest. China's 2025/26 soybean purchases stood at 11.5 mmt as of April 9 with 1.9 mmt left to ship. 1.56...
French Corn Acreage May Drop 10‑15% Amid Cost Surge
🇫🇷Corn area in France could fall 10-15% on the year amid high fertilizer and energy costs. France's annual corn plantings are only about 4% of what the USA plants, but it plays an important role regionally, accounting for around one-fifth of...
US Soy Crush Hits 2nd Highest March
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, March 2026: ▪️226.161 mln bu of soybeans ▪️2nd highest for any month; +16% YOY ▪️Below avg trade est (229.978M) ▪️Soyoil stocks 2.039 bln lbs ▪️Below all trade estimates (avg 2.173B) ▪️Stocks at 13yr high for March https://t.co/eWZRN9BEi2
China’s March Soybean Imports Slump Far Below Expectations
🇨🇳China imported 4.02 million metric tons of soybeans in March, well below expectations and the month's average (both ~6 mmt). Halfway through 2025/26, total imports were a 3-yr high BUT below the 5-yr avg on minimal US arrivals. 10+ mmt per...
US Soybeans Plant Faster
🇺🇸U.S. soybeans are 6% planted, above expectations and historically quick. Corn is 5% planted, slightly ahead of last year. Winter wheat conditions dropped another point this week. https://t.co/Yy2wWIzMud
USDA Confirms 2025/26 Soybean Meal, Corn Export Deals
USDA confirms the following U.S. export sales for delivery in 2025/26: ▪️100,000 metric tons of soybean meal to Italy ▪️125,640 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations
Rain Eases Midwest Corn Drought, Plains Wheat Stays Parched
🇺🇸Recent ample rains have loosened drought's grip on the core U.S. Corn Belt. Only 40% of the Midwest is abnormally dry, the lowest since late August 2025. But extended dryness in the Plains has accelerated drought across hard red winter...
Global Wheat Stocks Surge, India Drives Surprise Boost
Much larger-than-expected global wheat stocks from USDA this month, mostly based on larger supplies in India per its own govt stock report. Chinese soybean demand was unchanged. Corn supplies were a bit larger than expected. https://t.co/oVsPwLsIX7
USDA Holds South American Crop Forecast Amid Agency Updates
USDA left South American production alone this month. Interesting after seeing some increases from other agencies on Argentina's corn and Brazil's soybean crops. Conab will be out with its estimates on April 14. https://t.co/2Up1v7VTJr
Brazil Hikes Ethanol Blend; Argentina Lifts Corn Forecast
In case you missed it, some pertinent news came out of South America Wednesday afternoon. 🇧🇷Brazil wants to raise ethanol's mix in gasoline to 32% from 30% by the end of June 🇦🇷Argentina's Rosario exchange raised the 25/26 corn crop to 67...
USDA Confirms 136,000 Tons U.S. Corn Sale to South Korea
USDA confirms the sale of 136,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to South Korea in 2025/26.
U.S. Corn Exports Surge, Wheat Mixed; Soy Near Lows
🇺🇸U.S. corn export sales last week remained on an above-average pace, headlined by Japan. Soybeans were near a marketing-year low but within expectations. Better-than-expected old-crop wheat sales were offset by a new-crop volume below all analyst estimates. https://t.co/oCqaZxzksH
USDA Trade Estimates Stable; Watch South American and U.S. Corn/Soy
All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand report due Thursday at noon EDT. Not many changes expected to headline numbers on average, though the ranges of ideas are healthy. Top items to watch are South American corn/soy crops and...
Dollar Slump Lifts US Bean Prices, Drops Brazil’s
The U.S. dollar on Wednesday fell to a two-year low against the Brazilian real, down about 19% from its Dec. 2024 peak. Applying this to CBOT soybean prices: 🇺🇸Beans (USD) are up 11% from this same week last year 🇧🇷Beans (BRL) are...
Brazil Soybean Exports Dip, China Share Hits 7‑year Low
🇧🇷Brazil's March soybean exports hit 14.5 million metric tons, *down* 1% from last March. But the more interesting story might be the unusually large non-China share. Only 69% of Brazil's March exports went to China, the month's lowest in 7 years...
Soybean Complex Becomes Oil‑Driven as CBOT Oilshare Hits Record
📈CBOT oilshare on Tuesday reached a modern-day record high of 52.8%, driven by unrelenting strength in soybean oil since the beginning of the year. This means the soybean complex is more oil-led than ever before, a departure from how the complex...
Winter Wheat Condition Hits Decade Low at 35%
🇺🇸Only 35% of U.S. winter wheat is in good or excellent condition, below all trade estimates and down notably from late Nov. This is the week's fourth lowest rating of the last decade. Corn, cotton and spring wheat planting have just...
Funds Go Net Long Wheat, Snap Corn Buying Streak
📈Funds are record bullish CBOT soybean oil & Minne wheat, and they're now net long in CBOT wheat for the first time in nearly 4 years. But funds' corn buying streak snapped. I discuss implications of specs' latest positioning in Sunday's...
War‑Driven Energy Costs Revive Food
🇺🇸The food-vs-fuel debate is back amid the war-driven surge in energy costs, particularly for corn-based ethanol. Yes, 2026 U.S. corn plantings will drop from 2025, largely due to rotations. But 2026 could see the 4th largest corn area since WWII and...
US Soy Exports to China Slightly Up, Q1 Plummets
🇺🇸USA exported 2.43 million metric tons (89 mbu) of soybeans to China in February, slightly above the month's five-year average. Q2 (Dec-Feb) 2025/26 U.S. bean shipments to China edged the year-ago Q2 volume by about one cargo, but Q1 2025/26 was...
U.S. Corn Acre Forecasts Remain Unchanged Year‑to‑Year
🌽Remarkable to compare expectations and outcomes for U.S. corn acres, March 2025 versus March 2026. Almost a straight copy+paste in all columns..... https://t.co/HT5yWSIhC3
USDA Reports Lower-than-Expected Corn Acreage in May
Immediate report reaction: The acres weren't quite as expected, w/ most analysis pointing to lower corn acres. BUT has anything changed since USDA's survey, and by how much? This will be debated for the next 3 months, but these are...
US Cotton Plantings Surpass Forecast, Small Grains Lag
U.S. cotton plantings came in larger than expected and above 2025's area. All small grain plantings came in below expectations. https://t.co/QomfLCsn7M
U.S. Wheat Plantings Hit Record Lows Since 1919
U.S. wheat plantings come in lower than analysts expected across all categories. 2026 all wheat acres are set to hit an all-time low in records back to 1919. Spring wheat acres are seen at a 56-year low. https://t.co/EX4kMnksdH
Corn, Wheat Stocks Miss Forecast; Soybeans Exceed Expectations
U.S. March 1 corn and wheat stocks come in below trade expectations, soybeans come in above. https://t.co/99UWcvMgT6
Indonesia Reinstates B50 Biodiesel Blend Amid War Risks
🇮🇩Indonesia will raise the blending rate for palm-based biodiesel to 50% (B50) from the current B40 on July 1, despite having scrapped this plan two months ago due to supply concerns. But war risks are now at the forefront. Indonesia is...
USDA Planting Data May Reveal Fertilizer‑price Driven Acreage Shift
🇺🇸All trade estimates ahead of USDA's planting intentions & quarterly stocks due on Tuesday at 11am CDT, where U.S. corn & soybean plantings will take the spotlight. Will USDA's survey capture any potential acreage shift owing to the war-driven surge...
U.S. Corn Inspections Beat Forecasts; Soybeans Lag, China Leads Demand
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export inspections topped all trade expectations, but soybeans fell slightly below. 46% of the inspected soybean cargoes were destined for China. https://t.co/qtmgF00LfJ
2026 U.S. Corn Plantings Dip yet Stay Above Average
🇺🇸 2026 U.S. corn plantings are seen sharply lower year-over-year but still well above average. Soy area is seen up 5%. USDA's Tuesday report will shed more light. 💡Fun fact: The corn estimates (avg, hi & lo) are nearly identical to...
Speculators' Bullishness Matches 2021‑22 Despite Ample Supply
📈Speculators' grain & oilseed bullishness has reached the levels of late March 2021 & 2022, times when balance sheets certainly looked tighter than today. But are supplies at risk this year? Fewer corn acres? Big bean oil demand? Weather scare? Trade...
US Soybean Exports to China Plunge to 19‑Year Low
🇺🇸🇨🇳At the White House on Friday, Trump said: “American soybeans are now being shipped to China in record amounts.” Unless something unexpectedly changes, 2025/26 U.S. soybean exports to China are on track to be: ▪️a 19-year low ▪️down 58% from the five-year average...
EPA Keeps 15 Billion Gallon Biofuel Target Through 2027
🇺🇸The U.S. EPA has finalized 2026 and 2027 biofuel blending volumes (see table below). EPA's report also states: "To provide continued certainty for American corn growers & ethanol producers, EPA will maintain the 15 billion conventional biofuel level for 2026 &...
Argentina Permits 15% Ethanol Blend to Curb Soaring Fuel Prices
🇦🇷Argentina on Friday announced it will allow up to 15% ethanol blending in gasoline to combat rising fuel costs. The country's gas prices are up 18% so far in March. https://t.co/yYII0vDBDn
Trump to Unveil Farmer Aid, Likely Biofuel Quotas Friday
🇺🇸Trump said on Thursday that his administration will announce actions to help U.S. farmers on Friday. Further details are unavailable, though final biofuel blending quotas are the obvious market expectation. https://t.co/4wwLZa9AXf
US Export Sales Beat Forecast; Mexico Leads Corn, Soy
🇺🇸U.S. export sales met or exceeded expectations last week. Mexico and Colombia led in corn sales, and Germany and Mexico were the leaders in soybeans for new outright sales (China topped net sales, and those were due to a switch...
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Brazil's Soy Exports Slow Weekly, Yet Hit
🇧🇷Through the third week of March, Brazil's average daily soybean export rate was 18% lower than the average daily rate during the full March last year. Brazil shipped 14.7 mmt of soybeans in March 2025, a record for the month. Feb...
US Corn and Bean Flash Sales Return, First to Mexico
🇺🇸Monday's flash sale of U.S. corn was the first since March 4, and the bean sale was the first since Feb. 12. These also marked the first U.S. flash sales explicitly to Mexico since Dec. 17 (corn) and Jan. 13 (soybeans)....
EPA to Announce Biofuel Blending Quota Before Month-End
🇺🇸Reuters reporting just now that EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin says U.S. biofuel blending quota announcement will be made "before the end of the month." This increases the odds that it coincides with the White House's celebration of agriculture event on Friday.
Brazil Soybean Harvest Lags, only 68% Complete
🇧🇷Brazil's soybean harvest was 68% complete as of last Thursday, well below the year-ago pace of 80%. https://t.co/CzD6l0Ilyg