Kurt S. Altrichter
Macro/markets advisor posting on metals and volatility; discusses copper’s supply‑driven highs and broader cross‑asset macro conditions.
Fed Decision Today Could End Rally or Spark New Highs
The Fed has been an afterthought since the Iran war started. That ends today. The rate decision is set in stone. The forward guidance, the dots, and Warsh’s first press conference are not. This is the meeting that can break the rally or clear the path to new highs 🧵
Rising Realized Vol Sparks $5.7B Equity Sell‑off
$SPX 1-month realized vol crossed above 3-month today, the exact trigger vol-control funds watch, and it forced $5.7B of mechanical equity selling today, $11.1B across five sessions. Their allocation is down to $188.3B and keeps bleeding until realized vol settles. Not...
May CPI to Spike Above 4%, Fed Likely Holds
I expect May CPI on June 10th to run hot, above 4% headline. That's the top. It comes down with the June number in July. The Fed won't hike this year. CPI hit 3.8% last month from 3.3%, energy was 40%....
Jobs Report Crucial: Growth Fuels Spending, Risks Rate Hikes
Tomorrow's jobs report still matters more than the market is treating it. A strong labor market is what keeps the consumer spending high during high inflation. A labor market that runs too tight pulls Fed rate hikes forward. Both cut against this rally....
Job‑Switching Pay Premium Halves, AI Boosts Employer Power
The job-switching pay premium just hit a 7-year low. In 2022, changing jobs got you nearly 18% after-tax wage growth. Today it’s ~8% and falling. Workers who stayed put are getting ~5%. AI has moved the leverage back to employers and the...
2026 Market Outlook: Global Macro Trends Revealed
Here's my recent interview with @pompglobal to discuss the global macro picture and where we see markets going in 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfO3dnvmldM&t=65s
Thursday’s Triple Data Sets ±1.36% Market Move
Thursday is the only day that matters this week. Core PCE, GDP, and PCE Price Index all land the same morning with options pricing a ±1.36% move around it. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence could be a warning. Watch for a print...
SPX 7,650 Hinges on Three Critical Catalysts
The fundamental case for $SPX 7,650 requires three catalysts to materialize: 1) AI/data center capex holds its trajectory. That's the earnings engine. 2) Consumer and business spending stay strong. That is the wall against the stagflation narrative. 3) US/Iran reach a deal and...
Vol‑control Funds Buy $5.6B, Still $100B Under Cap
Vol-control funds are net buyers this week. $5.6B in buys on Friday alone. Still $100B below the cap.
Nasdaq's 28% Surge Faces Overheated CPI and Overvaluation
28% in 42 days. Trend line at 70°. April CPI probably coming in hot at 3.65%. And a market that is priced for optimism well north of reasonable expectations. https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/the-nasdaq-went-full-top-gun?r=o2udr&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Trim Profits as AI Rally Hits Market Extension
AI stocks have been on fire, and the market is getting extended here. Systematic strategies are rolling over, and a mechanical unwind is likely coming in the next week or so. The major indices are sitting at the top end of their...
Brace for Mechanical Unwind: Prepare Your Buy List
The market is one volatility spike (Trump Tape Bomb) away from triggering a mechanical unwind. CTA deleveraging. Vol-control selling. Forced downside flows hitting all at once. Get your buy list ready. My guess is in the next week or so. Time will tell.
Systemic Long Bias at +3 Z‑Score Signals Potential Sell‑off
While near-term supportive, systematic positioning is highly skewed to the downside. Systematic Positioning Index Z-score: approximately +3. Above the +2 sigma extreme-long threshold. If momentum stalls and rolls over, the algos could create a strong selling waterfall.
Vol‑control Exposure Climbs yet Lags S&P Highs
Vol-control implied notional equity exposure is rising off the lows but still well below the $225-300B range from late 2024 and early 2025. The S&P 500 is at highs. Vol-control exposure is not.
GDP Masks Inflation Surge and Export Drag
Q1 GDP printed +2.0% vs +2.3% expected and the bulls are calling it resilient. Look closer. PCE inflation just ran +0.7% MoM in March, hottest since 2022, while net exports subtracted 1.3pp from growth on a tariff-rebound import surge. The...