Kurt S. Altrichter
Macro/markets advisor posting on metals and volatility; discusses copper’s supply‑driven highs and broader cross‑asset macro conditions.
USD Floor and Oil Stabilization Signal Fed Trouble
The greenback found a short-term floor at $97.90 just as oil stopped going down. That's not a coincidence. Both are telling you the Fed is screwed. EM and credit feel it first because they fund in dollars and import the oil.
Oil Surge Makes 2026 Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely
WTI back at $88, with the Strait closed again, means the Fed's path just got harder. Energy feeds into CPI with a lag, so every week oil stays elevated, and every dollar above $80 is another month of sticky inflation prints....
Rising ES Open Interest Signals New High‑Level Positioning
June /ES open interest is ripping to new highs right alongside price. You don't typically see this happen in a short-covering rally. That's new positioning being put on at the highs. Time will tell.
SPX Futures at 7,050: RSI Drop Signals Bearish Warning
SPX Futures sitting on the 7,050 breakout with RSI rolling from 80+ to 56. Bearish Divergence is confirming (warning, not a sell signal).
S&P 500 Crosses Optimism Threshold, Majority Above Trend
A few weeks ago, fewer than half of the S&P 500 components were trading above their long-term trend. Today, the majority is. Participation has cleared the optimism threshold. Now let’s see if it can hold.
Implied Equity Exposure Poised to Surge as Volatility Drops
Vol-control implied equity exposure sits near $150B. Most of 2024 and 2025 it ran $225-$300B. There is dry powder waiting to eat. We should start to see this trigger when 30-day RV falling below 90-day RV.
Market Optimism: 61% of S&P 500 Above 200‑day MA
61% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day MA. We are in the optimism zone, but not euphoric. Blow-off tops show up at 80%+ Lots of participation and very strong momentum.
Volatility Crushed; Oil Index Still in Crisis Zone
Volatility is getting crushed across the board. While Oil vol $OVX has declined, it is still in the crisis zone. This is called a non-confirmation.
2-Year Treasury Signals No Rate Cuts, Hikes Expected
The 2-year doesn't lie. It tracks Fed expectations closer than anything else in the market. And right now it's sitting above the Fed funds rate for the first time in a while. That's not pricing in rate cuts. That's pricing in rate...
Institutions Hedge Tail Risk as SKEW Near Resistance
SKEW is pinned just below 5-year resistance at 156. Institutions are quietly paying up for far out-of-the-money put protection. They're hedging a low-probability, high-impact tail event. That's not typically a buy-the-dip environment. Time will tell.
Algorithms Buying; CTA Positioning Rebounds From Deep Negatives
Algos hit the buy trigger last week. CTA positioning is rising off deeply negative levels. Worth keeping an eye on.
WTI Holds $88 Support After 22% Intraday Drop
WTI crude dropped 22% peak to trough in a single session after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, but held $88.13 support on a closing basis. Still up +66.57% YTD. RSI is printing a clear bearish divergence. The $88 level is key. Hold...
SPX Futures Reclaim Resistance, Breaks Downtrend Line
$SPX Futures tagged 6,854 today. That's a full reclaim of $6,680 and $6,808 resistance, a break above the Q1 downtrend line, and the 21 EMA back underneath price. Now let's see if this holds through CPI tomorrow and whatever drama happens on...
VIX Breaks 2026 Trend, Signals End of Market Chop
The $VIX just broke below its 2026 uptrend line. Combined with positive gamma, this market may be exiting the chop. Time will tell.
Selloff Was Repricing, Upside Capped, Downside Risks Remain
If you use fundamentals to supplement your technical work as I do, here's what this selloff actually was. We didn't crash. We repriced to fair value. The low landed almost perfectly on the current multiple levels. 21x $305 = 6,405. From here, the...