Kurt S. Altrichter
Macro/markets advisor posting on metals and volatility; discusses copper’s supply‑driven highs and broader cross‑asset macro conditions.
Powell's Final Fed Meeting Could Shift Soft Landing
Jay Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair is Wednesday. He could go out reinforcing a December cut, or blow up the soft landing trade by hinting hikes are back on the table. Markets are not positioned for the second one. Let's Dive into this month's FOMC preview 🧵
S&P Hits Record Highs Amid Weak Market Breadth
New all-time highs on the S&P 500, and breadth still won't confirm. NYSE advance-decline line is below its 13-week cumulative average, an entire quarter of narrowing participation. Time will tell.
S&P 500 Futures Breakout, Yet Internals Signal Weakness
S&P 500 futures hit 7,211 today on a breakout, but the internals are concerning. Areas of concern that the bears will point out are light volume on up-days and open interest declining into the rally. Looks a little more like...
System
CTAs are done. They flipped from max short to max long and exhausted their flow. Vol-control funds are just starting - and they manage 3x the capital. The real systematic bid is only beginning. BUTT - we need realized vol to...
Thursday's Top Index Movers: LLY, MA, CAT; Friday Energy Shift
Here’s who reports this week. $LLY $MA $CAT on Thursday carry the most index impact. $XOM $CVX on Friday for energy rotation.
FedWatch Shows 84% Chance of 2026 Rate Cut
FedWatch now pricing 84% odds of a rate cut in 2026. I am old enough to remember when the market was pricing in 0% in March, and I won't be surprised when this goes back to zero. Time will tell.
Realized Vol Decline Boosts Systematic Stock Tailwinds
1M realized vol is starting to roll over. Vol control funds are stepping back in with mechanical buying. As realized vol drops, systematic flows turn supportive, and that should be a tailwind for stocks into next week.
USD Floor and Oil Stabilization Signal Fed Trouble
The greenback found a short-term floor at $97.90 just as oil stopped going down. That's not a coincidence. Both are telling you the Fed is screwed. EM and credit feel it first because they fund in dollars and import the oil.
Oil Surge Makes 2026 Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely
WTI back at $88, with the Strait closed again, means the Fed's path just got harder. Energy feeds into CPI with a lag, so every week oil stays elevated, and every dollar above $80 is another month of sticky inflation prints....
Rising ES Open Interest Signals New High‑Level Positioning
June /ES open interest is ripping to new highs right alongside price. You don't typically see this happen in a short-covering rally. That's new positioning being put on at the highs. Time will tell.
SPX Futures at 7,050: RSI Drop Signals Bearish Warning
SPX Futures sitting on the 7,050 breakout with RSI rolling from 80+ to 56. Bearish Divergence is confirming (warning, not a sell signal).
S&P 500 Crosses Optimism Threshold, Majority Above Trend
A few weeks ago, fewer than half of the S&P 500 components were trading above their long-term trend. Today, the majority is. Participation has cleared the optimism threshold. Now let’s see if it can hold.
Implied Equity Exposure Poised to Surge as Volatility Drops
Vol-control implied equity exposure sits near $150B. Most of 2024 and 2025 it ran $225-$300B. There is dry powder waiting to eat. We should start to see this trigger when 30-day RV falling below 90-day RV.
Market Optimism: 61% of S&P 500 Above 200‑day MA
61% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day MA. We are in the optimism zone, but not euphoric. Blow-off tops show up at 80%+ Lots of participation and very strong momentum.
Volatility Crushed; Oil Index Still in Crisis Zone
Volatility is getting crushed across the board. While Oil vol $OVX has declined, it is still in the crisis zone. This is called a non-confirmation.
2-Year Treasury Signals No Rate Cuts, Hikes Expected
The 2-year doesn't lie. It tracks Fed expectations closer than anything else in the market. And right now it's sitting above the Fed funds rate for the first time in a while. That's not pricing in rate cuts. That's pricing in rate...
Institutions Hedge Tail Risk as SKEW Near Resistance
SKEW is pinned just below 5-year resistance at 156. Institutions are quietly paying up for far out-of-the-money put protection. They're hedging a low-probability, high-impact tail event. That's not typically a buy-the-dip environment. Time will tell.
Algorithms Buying; CTA Positioning Rebounds From Deep Negatives
Algos hit the buy trigger last week. CTA positioning is rising off deeply negative levels. Worth keeping an eye on.
WTI Holds $88 Support After 22% Intraday Drop
WTI crude dropped 22% peak to trough in a single session after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, but held $88.13 support on a closing basis. Still up +66.57% YTD. RSI is printing a clear bearish divergence. The $88 level is key. Hold...
SPX Futures Reclaim Resistance, Breaks Downtrend Line
$SPX Futures tagged 6,854 today. That's a full reclaim of $6,680 and $6,808 resistance, a break above the Q1 downtrend line, and the 21 EMA back underneath price. Now let's see if this holds through CPI tomorrow and whatever drama happens on...
VIX Breaks 2026 Trend, Signals End of Market Chop
The $VIX just broke below its 2026 uptrend line. Combined with positive gamma, this market may be exiting the chop. Time will tell.
Selloff Was Repricing, Upside Capped, Downside Risks Remain
If you use fundamentals to supplement your technical work as I do, here's what this selloff actually was. We didn't crash. We repriced to fair value. The low landed almost perfectly on the current multiple levels. 21x $305 = 6,405. From here, the...
Tariff Pause Triggers
On This Day in History, April 9, 2025: Trump dropped a bombshell Truth Social post announcing a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs (dropping them back to 10%), while hiking China’s rate to 125%. Markets went nuts: • Dow surges 2,963 points...
Yield Curve Flip Signals Growth Risks Amid Fed Tightness
10Y–2Y yield curve keeps grinding lower, but the type of flattening has shifted from “bear” (short rates up) to “bull” (long rates getting bid). That suggests the bond market is growing more cautious about US economic growth, while the Fed...
SPX Futures Eye 6680: Break Upside, Drop to 6316
$SPX futures are testing the downtrend line from below after bouncing off $6498 support. $6680 is the level. Break and hold above it changes the picture. Fail here, and 6,316 is still on the table.
VIX Backwardation Signals Lower Trend, Watch -1.44 Break
April-May $VIX calendar spread closed at -0.49. Still in backwardation. Primary trend remains lower. -$1.44 is the key level to watch. Break below it, and another short-vol squeeze is in play, which means more pressure on stocks. Backwardation doesn't lie. Near-term fear...
VIX Warns: Uptrend May Flip, Watch Closely
The $VIX is a "watch carefully, don't dismiss" indicator right now. The uptrend is intact until it isn't.
Vol‑Control Funds Keep Selling as RV Spread Doubles
At the start of the year 1M RV was printing 8-9%. It has more than doubled. Vol-control funds are required by mandate to keep cutting equity exposure until that spread closes. Wouldn't be surprised to see this "unwind" a little...
March Jobs Look Strong, but Core Hiring Weak
March jobs came in at 178K. Headline looks like a blowout. It will likely be interpreted as such. Payrolls: Too Hot. UE at 4.3%: Just Right. Worth noting: 32K of those jobs were striking workers at Kaiser and Starbucks coming back...
S&P Futures Stuck Below Downtrend, Target 6,316
S&P 500 futures can't get out from under the downtrend line. Every bounce gets sold. Measured move target: 6,316. Next stop lower until something changes structurally.
Upcoming Earnings Calendar and Good Friday Market Closure
Here's who we have on deck for earnings this week. The market is closed on Good Friday.
CPI Set to Jump Above 3%, Prompting Fed Hike
I expect the April 10th CPI print to spike 70-100 basis points, coming in north of 3%. And then the Fed is going to hike rates 🥸
Oil Sparked Rally; Fed and Other
Oil started it. The Fed can't finish it. And two other headwinds that have nothing to do with Iran Full breakdown in new report 👇 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/iran-is-one-problem-this-market-has
Market Slashes Feb Rate‑cut Odds; Fed Put Dead
The market was pricing a 100% chance of rate cuts in February. That number is now 16%. The Fed put is dead.
Bears in Control: Downtrend Unbroken, Stay Bearish
The bears own this tape. The 90-day downtrend line has not been challenged once from below. The 21 EMA is pointing straight down. $6,555. $6,638. $6,688. All broken. All flipped to resistance. RSI at 31 is not a buy signal. In a...
CTAs Unwind, Triggering Liquidity‑driven Price Decline
When CTAs unwind, they don't ask for permission. They sell into whatever liquidity is available. The signal is already at levels that preceded major drawdowns in 2022 and early 2024. Price follows positioning. It usually takes time a little longer than you...
SPX Below Gamma Flip Signals Bigger Swings, Bull Recovery Needed
SPX is sitting 167 points below the gamma flip level. When price is below the flip, dealers are short gamma. They throttle vol moves instead of suppressing them. Swings get bigger in both directions. Bulls need a reclaim of 6,681 to get...
Systematic Funds Still Long, Ready to Sell on Downtrend
Systematic funds haven't panic sold yet. CTA and vol-control models are sitting at neutral positioning right now. That means they still have long exposure to unwind. If this downtrend continues, these models will keep selling mechanically. No capitulation signal. Just more rules-based selling still...
Margin Call Crushed Hunt Brothers' Silver Corner
On this day, March 25, 1980 the Hunt brothers received a massive margin call that helped trigger one of the biggest commodity crashes in history. Texas billionaires Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt had cornered nearly one third of the...
S&P 500 Near Bear Market Threshold at 45%
45% of the S&P 500 stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages. The 40% level is where bear markets live. Recessions. Major market corrections. 2018. 2020. 2022. Five points away.
Markets Ignore FOMC; Dot Plot and Language Drive Moves
The FOMC meets this week but no one's paying attention. Markets are focused on geopolitics, not rate decisions. Here's what actually matters: the dot plot, the statement language, and the three scenarios that could move markets.
Rising 1‑Month Vol Triggers Upside Squeeze Risk
1-month realized vol is still above 3-month realized vol. That keeps the market in a high-volatility regime, which forces vol-control funds to reduce equity exposure as volatility rises. If 1M realized vol drops back below 3M realized vol, systematic strategies will be...
Three S&P 500 Headwinds, One Overlooked Indicator Each
The S&P 500 has 3 headwinds right now. Most investors are only watching one. Here's what all 3 are, and the single indicator for each that tells you if it's getting better or worse 🧵
Technical Signals Warn of Potential 20‑25% Market Correction
Four technical signals today look almost identical to early March 2025, right before last spring’s $SPX selloff. The risk of a 20–25% correction is as high as it’s been in nearly a year. Counterpoint: fair value using $305 EPS at 21.5x...
Rising Junk Yields Signal Early Credit Weakness
Credit spreads are starting to move. Junk bond yields just hit a 3-month high at 7.34%, while high-yield spreads are trending higher in early 2026. That’s usually the first crack. Credit weakens → liquidity tightens → risk assets feel it next. Still early. Time...
Dollar Bounce Signals Buying Opportunity, Risks for Commodities
If you know where the dollar is going, you know where global liquidity is going. $DXY just bounced hard off 96.65 multi-year support and is pressing into the $100 resistance zone. Momentum is improving with higher lows and rising RSI. Today’s pullback looks...
VIX Spread Collapse Signals Extreme Market Stress
Carnage in the short-vol trade. The Mar–Apr $VIX futures calendar spread collapsed through -$2, printing a > $2.50 weekly range and a -$3.18 low. That’s roughly a 6σ move, meaning the probability was at ~0.0000002% Translation: the volatility complex violently flipped into...
SPX Below Gamma Flip Signals Expanding Volatility
The $SPX is still below the gamma flip. That keeps us in negative gamma, meaning volatility can expand, and rallies can fade fast.
Cooling Volatility Triggers Machine Re‑Leverage, Expect Upward Grind
Volatility is cooling. 30D realized volatility (yellow line) just rolled over and is now below 90D (blue line). When short-term vol drops, the machines re-lever. Vol control funds start buying. Right now, the signal says grind higher until proven otherwise.
Cooling Volatility Triggers Vol‑Control Funds to Add Equity
Vol Control funds are starting to re-engage. When realized vol cools, vol-control strategies mechanically add equity exposure. Vol ↓ → Positioning ↑ → Fuel for price. Still too early, but if realized volatility continues to cool off, this turns into incremental buy pressure...