Lawrence Hamtil

Lawrence Hamtil

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Advisor; thoughtful posts on industrials/blue chips and U.S. equity sector leadership.

Homebuilding Struggles to Achieve True Economies of Scale
SocialMay 28, 2026

Homebuilding Struggles to Achieve True Economies of Scale

This by @_brianpotter is very good: Where Are the Economies of Scale in Homebuilding? https://t.co/pn5v6uJmib https://t.co/8lZEHdHBds

By Lawrence Hamtil
True Compounding Requires Holding Investments for 7‑plus Years
SocialMay 20, 2026

True Compounding Requires Holding Investments for 7‑plus Years

I don't have an opinion on this trade, but I am reminded of the late Murray Stahl's observation that most investors have too short a holding period for true compounding to occur; that can happen only over periods longer than...

By Lawrence Hamtil
Gas Tax Frozen Since 1993 Still Funds Highways
SocialMay 11, 2026

Gas Tax Frozen Since 1993 Still Funds Highways

This is one of the few times you'll see me objecting to a tax cut of some kind: "The federal gas tax has been set at 18.4 cents per gallon of gasoline since 1993, and it remains the primary...

By Lawrence Hamtil
Capital Gains Exemption
SocialMay 11, 2026

Capital Gains Exemption

I know South Korea has been on fire with the memory-related trade, but I wonder how much of an impact the capital gains exemption has had for citizens selling foreign stocks & reinvesting in SoKo stocks. https://t.co/EacvTscwxw

By Lawrence Hamtil
Six‑Week Gain Hits Unprecedented 30.5%, Surpassing 25% Benchmark
SocialMay 11, 2026

Six‑Week Gain Hits Unprecedented 30.5%, Surpassing 25% Benchmark

via @SPDJIndices: "Across both live and hypothetical history, the index has never clocked a six-week performance as large as the current +30.5%. In fact, prior to last year, it never rose more than 25% over a 6-week period."...

By Lawrence Hamtil
Young Americans Skip Homes, Bet on Apps Instead
SocialMay 5, 2026

Young Americans Skip Homes, Bet on Apps Instead

"Americans are marrying and buying homes later than prior cohorts. Due in part to the decline in housing affordability, young adults who once would have devoted savings to down payments and mortgage amortization have increasingly routed surplus cash into app-based...

By Lawrence Hamtil
Greif: 150‑Year‑Old Cleveland Giant Behind Most Steel Drums
SocialMay 4, 2026

Greif: 150‑Year‑Old Cleveland Giant Behind Most Steel Drums

If you see a 55-gallon steel drum, there's a good chance it was made by Greif, a ~150yo company out of Cleveland. It was at one point the world's largest cooperage, and is still a leader in specialty packagin. https://t.co/DJGkzMXDQ5 https://t.co/0tVckKQMUV

By Lawrence Hamtil
U.S. Steel Supply Chain: Cleveland Cliffs Dominates Specialty Steel
SocialMay 2, 2026

U.S. Steel Supply Chain: Cleveland Cliffs Dominates Specialty Steel

The Frontier Map substack has a lot of great stuff on infrastructure, such as this post on 'the steel that runs the grid'. Cleveland Cliffs is the sole domestic supplier of the specialty steel; Hitachi, Vernova, and Siemens make...

By Lawrence Hamtil
Crushed Hybrid Challenge: 330 Squats and 10K Run
SocialMay 2, 2026

Crushed Hybrid Challenge: 330 Squats and 10K Run

Big mood in the Larry house today with a hybrid challenge unlocked. 330 pause squat yesterday afternoon, then completed a 10k this morning. I blame @gs072887 & @ImpliedFunding for getting me into this https://t.co/Aszib7PwdK

By Lawrence Hamtil
Industrial Picks & Shovels Stocks Surge Beyond Magnificent 7
SocialApr 30, 2026

Industrial Picks & Shovels Stocks Surge Beyond Magnificent 7

People talk about the Magnificent 7 but we need something for the crazy moves in industrial picks & shovels. Argan, Quanta, Comfort Systems, SPX, and several others https://t.co/tdvhGUBJUF

By Lawrence Hamtil
Eaton Targets Legacy Powerlines and Aging Aircraft
SocialApr 29, 2026

Eaton Targets Legacy Powerlines and Aging Aircraft

A lot of the Eaton thesis can be summed up as, "old powerlines and old airplanes". From their 2025 investor day https://t.co/yb1aLoFU4n

By Lawrence Hamtil
Royalties and Strong Teams Drive Resource Asset Value
SocialApr 25, 2026

Royalties and Strong Teams Drive Resource Asset Value

This was a great interview with James Davolos of Horizon Kinetics. He talks a lot about the virtues of royalties on irreplaceable assets, what makes good management teams in resource industries, and much else. https://t.co/lsvUUEMDz9 https://t.co/R821x7dNMS

By Lawrence Hamtil
Invest in Long‑Term Global Demand, Not Market Guesswork
SocialApr 24, 2026

Invest in Long‑Term Global Demand, Not Market Guesswork

People sometimes ask what I think about 'the market,' & my typical reply is that I have no clue, but I do feel pretty strongly that over the next 5-10 years, the world will consume more electricity, have more commercial...

By Lawrence Hamtil
FIX Hits $66B Market Cap in Under Four Years
SocialApr 23, 2026

FIX Hits $66B Market Cap in Under Four Years

Not even four years later, $FIX now has an implied market cap of over $66 billion. One of the crazier moves I've seen

By Lawrence Hamtil