Lawrence Hamtil

Lawrence Hamtil

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Advisor; thoughtful posts on industrials/blue chips and U.S. equity sector leadership.

Cheap Stocks' Historical Edge Vanishes Post‑GFC
SocialApr 21, 2026

Cheap Stocks' Historical Edge Vanishes Post‑GFC

For most of modern history, a cheat code was to own the cheapest 30% of the market based on P/CF; you would have outperformed the most expensive 30% by ~3.6% per year. That has broken down since the GFC, &...

By Lawrence Hamtil
Only 11% Expect AI to Replace SaaS Subscriptions
SocialApr 21, 2026

Only 11% Expect AI to Replace SaaS Subscriptions

From Carlyle on AI displacing SaaS: The market may have already overshot. Our proprietary survey of AI integration efforts finds that only 11% of management teams expect AI to replace existing software subscriptions. https://t.co/IUX7R1oxmB https://t.co/xYWyL3OIwk

By Lawrence Hamtil
Timeless Voices: From Tocqueville to Conrad
SocialApr 20, 2026

Timeless Voices: From Tocqueville to Conrad

Alexis de Tocqueville, W. Somerset Maugham, Joseph Conrad, and Ernst Jünger to name a few

By Lawrence Hamtil
Proactive Treatments Keep Lawn Green Despite Crabgrass, Dandelions
SocialApr 20, 2026

Proactive Treatments Keep Lawn Green Despite Crabgrass, Dandelions

This might be as green as it gets this year. Crabgrass and dandelions have been tough the last couple years, so I've tried to be proactive with treatments. https://t.co/J2azxPcKzf

By Lawrence Hamtil
Wichita Firms Fuel Blue Origin, Boosting Kansas Economy
SocialApr 19, 2026

Wichita Firms Fuel Blue Origin, Boosting Kansas Economy

A lot of Wichita companies are suppliers to Blue Origin, and I'm glad that our state is helping with and benefiting from this project. https://t.co/xSmrQrsrD9.

By Lawrence Hamtil
Linde's Kansas Plant Supplies One‑sixth of World Helium
SocialApr 18, 2026

Linde's Kansas Plant Supplies One‑sixth of World Helium

One of the largest helium plants in the world is operated by Linde in Otis, Kansas. It processes fully one-sixth of the global helium supply. https://t.co/B70riv01iY

By Lawrence Hamtil
True Diversification Means Minimizing Overlap, Not Counting Holdings
SocialApr 14, 2026

True Diversification Means Minimizing Overlap, Not Counting Holdings

I respect what they have built over the years, but the portfolio construction always struck me as inferior, with too many overlapping bets. Diversification is achieved through minimizing overlap, not owning a certain number of things.

By Lawrence Hamtil
US Builds First Aluminum Smelter in 50 Years
SocialApr 13, 2026

US Builds First Aluminum Smelter in 50 Years

We are building the first aluminum smelter in the US in over 50 years and you are bearish re-industrialization? The combination of tariffs (Trump), incentives (Biden), and fragile supply chains (China) made it worthwhile. https://t.co/3E0BDNJxHq

By Lawrence Hamtil
Waymo Logs 500,000 Driverless Rides Weekly
SocialApr 12, 2026

Waymo Logs 500,000 Driverless Rides Weekly

This is an interesting conversation with Dmitri Dolgov of Waymo. They are doing something like 500,000 driverless rides per week. https://t.co/ZWz4nwbUGR

By Lawrence Hamtil
Shale Boom Fuels US Investment, AI Lead, Weakens Adversaries
SocialApr 12, 2026

Shale Boom Fuels US Investment, AI Lead, Weakens Adversaries

It's difficult to overstate the significance of the shale revolution. The resultant abundance of cheap domestic nat gas and oil has made the US a destination for investment and also an AI superpower, but it also has reduced the leverage...

By Lawrence Hamtil
Victaulic Offers Industrial Shark‑Bite‑style Fittings, Cutting Welding
SocialApr 5, 2026

Victaulic Offers Industrial Shark‑Bite‑style Fittings, Cutting Welding

We've all seen Shark Bites for easy install of plumbing at home, but I didn't know Victaulic makes an industrial type product to reduce if not eliminate the need for welding in industrial settings https://t.co/gmikrNrgZx

By Lawrence Hamtil
Air Travel Costs Have Dramatically Dropped over Decades
SocialApr 4, 2026

Air Travel Costs Have Dramatically Dropped over Decades

I love this slide from Air Lease showing how air travel has become affordable over time https://t.co/5CVdwVTxuu

By Lawrence Hamtil
Services Now Claim 70% of Consumer Spending
SocialApr 4, 2026

Services Now Claim 70% of Consumer Spending

Since 1959, consumption of services has grown from 45% of total spend to 69% today; the share of spending related to nondurable goods has been more than halved, from 41% to 20% today. https://t.co/3ZxEaKRIB5

By Lawrence Hamtil
B‑52s Still Soaring After Six Decades of Service
SocialApr 2, 2026

B‑52s Still Soaring After Six Decades of Service

The last B-52 was delivered in October of 1962. It's a testament to the design's versatility that the B-52s being flown are as old as their pilots' parents.

By Lawrence Hamtil
Deal Cash Exceeds McCormick’s $14.2B Market Cap
SocialMar 31, 2026

Deal Cash Exceeds McCormick’s $14.2B Market Cap

The cash component of the McCormick-Unilever deal is greater than McCormick's market cap of ~$14.2 billion. Don't see that everyday https://t.co/htFEkz8aBy https://t.co/iWtXnzGFui

By Lawrence Hamtil
DOE Oversees U.S. Nuclear Arsenal, Many Don’t Know
SocialMar 30, 2026

DOE Oversees U.S. Nuclear Arsenal, Many Don’t Know

I was not aware that the Department of Energy is one agency in charge of our nuclear arsenal. The more you know, I guess

By Lawrence Hamtil
Nuclear Sector Emerges as New M&A Hotspot for Industrials
SocialMar 29, 2026

Nuclear Sector Emerges as New M&A Hotspot for Industrials

No great insight here, but seems like nuclear is rivaling aerospace as the new favored hunting ground for industrials looking to acquire niche, critical suppliers, examples being Crane acquiring Reuter-Stokes, & Enpro mentioning it as a focus.

By Lawrence Hamtil
C‑stores Boost Total Fueling, Mix Electric and Liquid
SocialMar 28, 2026

C‑stores Boost Total Fueling, Mix Electric and Liquid

There are some interesting comments here from Franklin Electric's CEO Joe Ruzynski on their C-store sales. The EV scare seems to have passed for now, and C-store operators are investing more in their total fueling solutions, including both electric &...

By Lawrence Hamtil
Hit 350‑lb Squat, 2× Bodyweight After Losing 10 Lbs
SocialMar 27, 2026

Hit 350‑lb Squat, 2× Bodyweight After Losing 10 Lbs

It was a goal of mine to return to squatting 2x body weight after dropping ~10lbs. Happy to check that off the list after hitting 350 today at 174. https://t.co/GEF2I1d4aj

By Lawrence Hamtil
Mediocre Read: Too Many Personal Stories, Not Technical
SocialMar 21, 2026

Mediocre Read: Too Many Personal Stories, Not Technical

This book was ok. Maybe a 6.5 or 7 out of ten. Thought it would be more technical. There was some of that, but the 2nd half more about people whose lives had been impacted by various air...

By Lawrence Hamtil
China's Economy Fell From 75% to Under Two‑thirds of US
SocialMar 21, 2026

China's Economy Fell From 75% to Under Two‑thirds of US

China's economy peaked in 2021, reaching a level roughly equal to 75% of the US economy. It is now less than 2/3 the size of the US economy. https://t.co/MBi5dqxuZg

By Lawrence Hamtil
Public Matches Extra Space After NSA Acquisition, Consolidation Accelerates
SocialMar 17, 2026

Public Matches Extra Space After NSA Acquisition, Consolidation Accelerates

So the National Storage Affiliates acquisition puts Public on par with Extra Space as far as total square footage managed. Industry consolidation continues apace. https://t.co/Ce69lYGYsk https://t.co/Rqz8xdySVZ

By Lawrence Hamtil
Track Upkeep Costs $60k per Mile, Hinting Massive Build Expense
SocialMar 13, 2026

Track Upkeep Costs $60k per Mile, Hinting Massive Build Expense

Union Pacific spends ~$2 billion annually on track maintenance, which works out to about $60,000 per mile. If that's just the maintenance cost, imagine what it suggests the cost would be to build another from scratch.

By Lawrence Hamtil
Private Wage Bill Jumps 5.5%, Boosting Real Purchasing Power
SocialMar 10, 2026

Private Wage Bill Jumps 5.5%, Boosting Real Purchasing Power

"The aggregate wage bill of private employers surveyed in the report rose 5.5% relative to year-ago levels, its largest increase in 16 months. This translates to 3% annual growth in workers’ real purchasing power, an increase of 230 basis points...

By Lawrence Hamtil
ASUR Pursues Hemisphere‑Wide Growth, Echoing Ferrovial Model
SocialMar 9, 2026

ASUR Pursues Hemisphere‑Wide Growth, Echoing Ferrovial Model

Last month, ASUR's management talked about their recent acquisitions in the US and Brazil. It seems like they are attempting to become a kind of Mexican Ferrovial with assets across the hemisphere. https://t.co/gnm07F4rPU

By Lawrence Hamtil
Market Poised for Major Upside Reversal on March 9
SocialMar 9, 2026

Market Poised for Major Upside Reversal on March 9

Seems sort of fitting that the market would have a major upside reversal on March 9th.

By Lawrence Hamtil
EV Profitability Looks Grim in New Cembalest Study
SocialMar 9, 2026

EV Profitability Looks Grim in New Cembalest Study

The new Cembalest energy paper is great. This table about EV profitability is pretty damning. https://t.co/JxcyhriCGB https://t.co/TFTRDotBUT

By Lawrence Hamtil
Dollar Remains Safe Haven Despite Boomer Nostalgia
SocialMar 2, 2026

Dollar Remains Safe Haven Despite Boomer Nostalgia

I guess the dollar is still a safe haven currency despite all the boomers saying its time as king is over

By Lawrence Hamtil
Stocks Are only Cheap During Economic or Business Crises
SocialFeb 14, 2026

Stocks Are only Cheap During Economic or Business Crises

There are really only two times when stocks become "cheap": collectively, - usually when the health of the economy is in question, - and, more narrowly, when the viability of a business or its industry is in question. You...

By Lawrence Hamtil
Visa's TSR Mirrors Earnings Growth, P/E Stays Flat
SocialFeb 13, 2026

Visa's TSR Mirrors Earnings Growth, P/E Stays Flat

Visa total return the last decade or so basically all earnings growth; P/E unchanged while change in EPS estimates roughly equal TSR https://t.co/wYh3Mkz7Aq

By Lawrence Hamtil
Railroads Hit All-Time Highs, AI Disruption Unlikely
SocialFeb 10, 2026

Railroads Hit All-Time Highs, AI Disruption Unlikely

No AI disruption worries in railroads, with Union Pacific, CSX, and Norfolk Southern all touching ATHs

By Lawrence Hamtil