Lawrence McDonald

Lawrence McDonald

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The Bear Traps Report founder; credit markets, HY/IG spreads, macro/rates

Stadium Crowds Trigger Massive Short-Term Travel Emissions Spike
SocialMay 30, 2026

Stadium Crowds Trigger Massive Short-Term Travel Emissions Spike

6M total stadium attendees across 104 matches. Expect billions of passenger-miles flown (tens to low hundreds of millions of gallons jet fuel) + hundreds of millions of road miles driven (tens of millions of gallons gasoline). Massive short-term spike, especially...

By Lawrence McDonald
NVIDIA's Stock Flat Since October Amid 85% Revenue Surge
SocialMay 27, 2026

NVIDIA's Stock Flat Since October Amid 85% Revenue Surge

The "Pump Master" never fails. NVIDIA's $NVDA equity is unchanged since October, during the largest tech bull run since the 1990s. *Revenues +85% (+20% sequentially from the prior quarter).

By Lawrence McDonald
Zero‑rate Era Produced Massive Bond Issuance Worldwide
SocialMay 19, 2026

Zero‑rate Era Produced Massive Bond Issuance Worldwide

Where are they now? Globally, bonds issued when interest rates were near ZERO, 2015–2021, though total global long-term fixed-income issuance (per SIFMA) was higher (~$158 trillion cumulatively). - Grok https://t.co/XCQZy1Rgxn

By Lawrence McDonald
Rising Rates Push Global Bond Prices Into Decline
SocialMay 15, 2026

Rising Rates Push Global Bond Prices Into Decline

Interest Rates Up - long term Bond Prices Down, we are crashing globally. UK: 5.81%* US: 4.53% Germany: 3.11% Japan: 2.70% *UK 30s, highest since 1998.

By Lawrence McDonald
Core CPI at 0.4% Could Yield 4.9% YoY
SocialMay 12, 2026

Core CPI at 0.4% Could Yield 4.9% YoY

A Multipolar World - Got Hard Assets? CPI Core MoM: 0.4% vs 0.3% exp. If monthly CPI rises by 0.4% each month for the next 12 months and compounds, the year-over-year CPI inflation rate over 12 months would...

By Lawrence McDonald
India's Coal Plant Boom Outpaces Global Expectations
SocialMay 12, 2026

India's Coal Plant Boom Outpaces Global Expectations

India: 290* has operational coal power plants, second globally after China (1,195). *Up from 210-240 a decade ago. **One billion people in India do NOT own an automobile and do NOT have air conditioning, so carbon consumption will be MUCH higher in...

By Lawrence McDonald
Commodity Boom Highlights Hidden QE via Treasury Mandate
SocialMay 11, 2026

Commodity Boom Highlights Hidden QE via Treasury Mandate

One Year Silver $SLV +161% Copper Miners $COPX +124% Gold Miners $GDX +94% Uranium $URNM +80% Forcing the U.S. banks to buy $1T of Treasuries while claiming to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet is still QE. Financial repression.

By Lawrence McDonald
Key Trends and Trades Amid Financial Repression Unveiled
SocialMay 11, 2026

Key Trends and Trades Amid Financial Repression Unveiled

The top trends and trades in the wild world of financial repression. Special thanks to @tomkeene and Bloomberg Surveillance - we’ll be on soon. https://t.co/MX5hi33aji

By Lawrence McDonald
US Refineries Ramp Up Ahead of Summer Driving Surge
SocialMay 9, 2026

US Refineries Ramp Up Ahead of Summer Driving Surge

Summer driving season approaching - U.S. refineries have the pedal to the metal right now - triggering stress points.

By Lawrence McDonald
Boomers 80, $79T Wealth Fuels Healthcare Boom
SocialMay 8, 2026

Boomers 80, $79T Wealth Fuels Healthcare Boom

A decade ago. We were lectured and lectured and lectured again - over and over again from Wall St. analysts. "The USA has an aging population. Health care is the undeniable sector of the future." Today, the oldest baby boomer...

By Lawrence McDonald
Beware: Massive IPO Valuations Threaten Your 401(k)
SocialMay 8, 2026

Beware: Massive IPO Valuations Threaten Your 401(k)

In case you missed this - High impact on your 401K. The three big IPOs “valuation” - Spacex $1.7T , OpenAI $800B, Anthropic $400B — the great dumping ground on passive investors. Just say NO! https://t.co/u9ozqm1l29

By Lawrence McDonald
Powell Calls Inflation “Well Anchored” As Core PCE Doubles
SocialMay 7, 2026

Powell Calls Inflation “Well Anchored” As Core PCE Doubles

May 2022–May 2026 -- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has used the phrase “well anchored” dozens of times, making it one of his most repeated talking points on inflation. Yet core PCE inflation (the Fed's "preferred" measure) is 2x the...

By Lawrence McDonald
Rising Gas Prices Make Tesla $2k Cheaper Annually
SocialMay 7, 2026

Rising Gas Prices Make Tesla $2k Cheaper Annually

Markets are Speaking Gasoline commodity since January: +100% This is what higher gas prices do to EV demand. It's now almost $2000 cheaper to drive a Tesla than a gasoline-powered car per year. cc @elonmusk https://t.co/sx9JHvByFa

By Lawrence McDonald
Semis SOXX Outpaces Nasdaq with 240% Gain
SocialMay 7, 2026

Semis SOXX Outpaces Nasdaq with 240% Gain

Semis SOXX vs. Nasdaq Composite (56 weeks) SOXX 2025-2026: +240%* Nasdaq 1999-2000: +130%** *April 2025 low to May 2026 high **February 1999 low to March 2000 high Bloomberg data

By Lawrence McDonald