WTI Oil Peaks in May, June, December; Dips March, August
Oil (WTI) -- Months Annually - 10 yr average Seasonality Best May +7.6% June +4.4% Dec +3.1% Worst Mar -2.8% Aug -2.4% Nov -2.2% Bloomberg "SEAG" Function.
From Near‑Zero to 6%: Bond Yields Surge
In 2020, with global interest rates near 0%, Austria sold this hundred-year bond to investors. Today, the United Kingdom is offering almost 6% (5.77%) for 30 years, think about that. https://t.co/6DDMRv4cEL
Long-Term Bond Duration Crushing Returns, Apple 2060 Halves
Duration is another hard asset driver - nearly every person on earth in long-term bonds has been losing money since 2022. *Apple 2.55s due 2060: 105 to 53. https://t.co/yTyInoASv4
Berkshire's Cash Swells to $400B Amid 14 Quarters Net Selling
Buffett's Cash Position is now near $400B - 14 straight quarters of net selling*, Berkshire exited another $8B of stocks in Q1. *(bought ~$16B, sold ~$24B), data from official earnings/10-Q and 13F-related disclosures. https://t.co/btLzzDvF3e
Yellen Pushes Massive Fiscal Spending Despite Recent Money Surge
Yellen (USTreasury then) said it’s “time to go big” fiscal — and of course gets a complete free pass from financial media, why? *Over 40% of all dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2021. cc @NickTimiraos
US Wealth Overleveraged as S&P Pushes Faster Mega IPOs
Smoking in the Dynamite Shed The US economy and household wealth are way, way, I mean WAY dangerously levered to the stock market, and now this? *S&P MULLS INDEX RULE CHANGES TO SPEED UP ADDITION OF MEGA IPOS.
Fed Quietly Admits 2% Target Is Really 3%
Federal Reserve - "We are really committed to our 2% inflation target, we mean 3%." *Special thanks to the Bloomberg terminal. https://t.co/9T3yivFz8n
AI Boom Drives Micron’s 400% Surge, Funding From Cloud Giants
Mag7+ORCL, now sending 30-35% of their operating cash flow to Micron (and other memory players). Since Q3 2024 - The AI Revolution Micron MU +400% Gold GLD +74% Meta META +0% Microsoft MSFT +0% Oracle ORCL -3% Bloomberg data. https://t.co/O623tjuPGf
Meta's Debt Triples, $25B Bond Sale Boosts Load
Meta Debt Load - Zuck Levering Up 2026: $87B* 2022: $27B *Add $25B, **META LOOKS TO RAISE $25B IN BOND SALE - Bloomberg.
Powell to Remain Fed Governor, Echoing 1948 Precedent
POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A GOVERNOR FOR PERIOD OF TIME - Bloomberg **Last time this actually happened? 1948 — Marriner Eccles got the boot as Chair and kept his seat on the Board until 1951. - Grok
Memory Costs Surge, Turning Cash Cows Into Piñatas
The great Mag7 + ORCL Rip off Festival. *Memory is close to 35% of their operating cash flow vs. 8% five years ago. Former cash cows are cash piñatas.
Value Daily Effort Over Immediate Results
"Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant." Robert Louis Stevenson *Special thanks to the Bloomberg terminal.
Intel Sentiment Surges: More Buys, Higher 2026 Target
Wall Street Research on Intel $INTC 2026 Stock at $84 Buys: 17 Holds: 31 Sells: 4 2022 stock at $24 Buys: 11 Holds: 20 Sells: 12 *Bloomberg ANR data.
Commodities Surge While AI Trades Face Crowding Warning
2026 Oil Service $OIH +49% Natural Gas $FCG +29% Uranium $URNM +26% Commodities $BCOM +24% Micro Caps $IWC +14% All Metals $XME +14% Russell 2000 $IWM +13% Coal $COAL +11% Big Tech $QQQ+6% Mag7 $MAGS -1%* *Beware of crowded trades and capex funding vehicles for everything AI.
High‑beta Assets Surge After Late‑March Market Dip
Off the late March Lows - High Beta Meme $MEME +59% Bitcoin Miners $WGMI +55% Cannabis $MSOS +38% Semis $SOXX +35% Quantum Computing $QTUM +26% Ark Robotics $ARKQ +23% Copper $COPX +22% Uranium $URNM +20% Silver Miners $SIL +19% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ +16% Bitcoin $IBIT +15% Missing?
Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin’s Former Risk‑on Appeal
Dear @grok, remember the days when Bitcoin was actually a risk-on asset? Quantum computing risk limiting upside?" cc @chamath https://t.co/HMXqbhIFGT
Hardship and Fear Forge Entrepreneurial Resilience and Clarity
When I met Charlie Munger in Omaha, Lehman Brothers had just gone bust and I had lost nearly everything. I’ll never forget what he said to me: “Larry, hardship is good for you. Fear is your best friend right now—use...
NASDAQ 100 Posts Longest Rally Since 2013, Miners Surge
Narratives 1. NASDAQ 100 EXTENDS RALLY TO 13 DAYS, LONGEST STREAK SINCE 2013 2. Return since October Silver Miners $SIL +56% Oil Services $OIH +47% Copper Miners $COPX +46% Gold Miners $GDX +45% Natural Gas Equities $FCG +28% Uranium Sector $URNM +26% Mag7 $MAGS 0.00%
Success Comes From Helping Others Before Asking
“You can get everything in life you want - if you just help enough other people get what they want. Never, EVER ask for a withdrawal before at least five deposits.” Zig Ziglar, Stephen Covey, and the great @TonyRobbins
Iran's Supertanker Defies US Blockade Amid Interceptions
Dear @grok truth? A. Iranian sanctioned supertanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, reportedly defying U.S. blockade. Vs B. U.S. naval forces have intercepted eight oil tankers entering or leaving Iranian ports since the start of the blockade, according to a U.S. official -WSJ
BlackRock Shifts Aggressively, Targets 300‑400% Commodity Returns
Thanks for playing --- "BlackRock Pivots 'Hard' For 3rd Time In 50 Years: Chasing 300-400% Returns With 4 Commodity Plays, Says Former Banker." Bloomberg.
Massive Copper and Uranium Demand Fuels Global Rebuild
Forward Looking - How much copper - uranium? 1. Ukraine / Iran Rebuild 2. US Power Grid Rebuild 3. Nuclear Plants incoming — 100 China + USA 4. 100m Robots 5. India, 1B people no air conditioning 2026 vs. 750m in 2036 6. 800...
2020‑22 Saw 40% of All USD Created, Ignored
Never, ever forget. Over 40% of all US dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2022. Yet, central bankers and Wall Street Research lectured against a hard asset portfolio and dramatically downplayed currency debasement. https://t.co/M7RQTCMivr
Deficits Surge, Supply Chains Shift in Multipolar Era
2020-2026 1. We go from 3% fiscal deficits for 30-40 years to 6-8%. Bush: $150B to $400B Obama: $1.1T to $400B Trump Biden: 1.4T to $3T 2. Go from “just in time” supply chains in a unipolar world, far fewer global conflicts to a multipolar...
Central Bank's Gold Sale Signals Deep Hormuz Crisis
The sloppiest gold seller in global central bank history - why? Desperately needed the cash. This is just one of the many tentacles (3rd, 4th, 5th order effects), coming out of the Straight of Hormuz.
U.S. Debt Interest Costs Surge Past $1 Trillion by 2026
U.S. net interest payments on the federal debt (in billions of dollars) by fiscal year: 2020: $345 2021: $352 2022: $475 2023: $659 2024: $882 2025: $970 2026: $1,000B (projected to exceed $1 trillion) Got hard assets?
Full Hormuz Oil Replacement Unrealistic, 10‑
Ideas Dinner Manhattan: Strait of Hormuz, how to replace 21M bpd oil?? Existing bypass pipelines (Saudi 7M + UAE 1.8M) cover 40-45%. Full replacement? 10–20+ yrs, $40B+, geopolitically brutal, not realistic. Next 5 yrs: expansions might hit 55–65% max. https://t.co/eTeUaAMFgS
Caterpillar Ramps up $3.5B Capex to Meet Rising
Now throw in double memory (DRAM) costs, double energy construction (diesel) costs, not in my back yard impact. * $CAT is investing aggressively to expand. Capex juiced, $3.5B planned for 2026, +25% YoY) specifically to boost capacity.
Copper Demand Set to Surge Across Infrastructure, Tech, and Defense
Road Ahead 1. Data Centers, $2.5T Capex. 2. $2T US Power Grid Rebuild - copper, aluminum. 3. Currency Debasement: USA $1.9% Defecit / 6.2% of GDP vs 3% average last 40 years. 4. Re-Build: Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, Israel - copper. 5. Robotics -...
Powell Claims Inflation Expectations Still Well Anchored
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
Bonds Outpace Stocks, Signaling New Bullish Hard‑asset Era
Same Story - One month Bonds $TLT -5% vs Stocks $QQQ -7% Last 20 years, equities risk-off + geopolitical events = bonds rallied / with higher prices. Game changer, since 2022 this has not been the case, a significant -...
Natural Gas Soars While Tech and Mag7 Falter
Ideas for that are Working 2026 FCG Natural Gas Equities: +40% Big Tech QQQ: -9% Mag7 MAGS: -16% Bloomberg https://t.co/Ojdx0GXDHM
Market Calm Amid Broad Weakness and Record Lows
S&P 500 off 6.7% year to date. NYSE stocks > 200 day moving average near 46% vs 15% last April. Nasdaq new 52 week lows 350 ish vs 1100 last April. There is NO fear in this mkt, yet.
Newark TSA Line Unusually Short After Two Decades.
No Problem- I’ve been traveling internationally in and out of Newark for close to 20 years - I’ve never seen a TSA line this SMALL. https://t.co/KO41B7uvrz
Portfolio Construction Shifts Dramatically for the Next Decade
An outstanding catch up today with @APompliano - portfolio construction over the next decade has taken a sharp turn, join us soon, details to come. https://t.co/QShJKvrcKn
AI‑Driven $2T U.S. Grid Revamp in Next Decade
Great segment @Tom_Winter - a colossal investment theme and a foundational part of our book “When Markets Speak” — AI power and the U.S. Grid. We need a $2T rebuild looking out 5-10 years. Opportunities ahead. https://t.co/zA7DSOkNJn
Tightening Finance Fuels Hard Asset Appeal Amid Rate Hikes
Hard assets, Oil and Gas in a multipolar world. Financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since the regional bank panic of 2023, rate hikes impact already happening, the opposite of White House wants. Join us @MorningsMaria in 5....
PPI Shows No $80+ Oil Days in February
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
Hard Assets Surge While Financials Falter in 2026
Hard Assets vs. Financial Assets in a Multipolar World 2026 Coal $CNR +33% Oil & Gas $XOP +33% Natural Gas $FCG +27% Gold $GLD +16% Uranium $URNM +16% Silver $SIL +13% Copper $COPX +6% Nasdaq $QQQ -3% Mag 7 $MAGS -9% Banks $KBWB -10% Bitcoin $IBIT -19%
LYB Surges to $58 as Analysts Upgrade to Buy
Chemicals $LYB February: $58 December: $42 *Sell-side research analysts across Wall Street., scrambling to upgrade to buy from sell / hold.
Nvidia Flat, Hard Assets Surge Despite After‑hours Bump
Nvidia $NVDA unchanged since October with hard assets ripping higher - up 1% after the close, Lord pump master is losing his touch :) https://t.co/417bLFxptb
Microsoft's $1.3T Valuation Slips 30% Amid AI Hype
A $1.3T valuation hit so far... Microsoft $MSFT -30% off sale, stock close to unchanged since Q4 2023, "AI revolution."
Nvidia
"AI Revolution" - Nvidia unchanged since July, off 3% in 2026. Street Research $NVDA at $181 Buys 92.8% ...