Depleting Oil Buffers Hide True Price Signals
Oil strategists keep raising alarms over shrinking oil reserves. Carlyle's Jeff Currie: "It is robbing Peter to pay Paul -liquidating the buffer built over decades to suppress the very price signal that would trigger the investment response the mkt needs" https://t.co/tXF2pWyUo6
Chevron Warns Imminent Oil Shortage and Rising Gas Prices
Chevron's Mike Wirth said we're weeks away from oil shortages. He sees US gasoline prices potentially rising considerably in the next two months. Listening to market strategists and then talking to commodity producers is an exercise in cognitive dissonance. @ferrotv...
Traders Overprice Rate Hikes, 2‑Year Yield Gap Widens
Traders aren't listening as much to Fed speak as forward guidance and instead are pricing in rate hikes with more certainty than what's coming from US central bankers. Last week, US 2-year yields climbed to 50bp above the Fed funds...
Long‑term Bond Yields Hit 2008 Highs, Inflation Fight Drags On
Average yields on long-dated government bonds have reached their highest levels since 2008, h/t @DRBCurtis "The last mile of fighting inflation is a marathon rather than a sprint...there are a lot of upward pressures on rates across the curve:" Apollo's...
UK Faces Finance Crisis: Yields Spike, Pound Falls
The "Liz Truss moment" of 2022 has turned into the UK's political reality, with 30-year yields soaring to their highest levels since 1998 and the pound weakening. "No matter who is in power, no matter their political leaning, there does...
Businesses Prefer Humans Over AI Automation for Cost
Businesses probably won't automate most tasks that have “AI Exposure" because it's cheaper to keep humans doing them, at least for now: new research, h/t Apollo's Torsten Slok. https://t.co/GYBZr2kpfD
Healthcare and Education Jobs Surge as Finance Declines
If you look under the hood of the US labor market, you find a lot of healthcare and education jobs being created. There are outright job losses in the financial and information industries. A chart of jobs in the education...
AI Hyperscalers to Outspend Defense with $1.1 T Next Year
Morgan Stanley sees capital spending by the five largest AI hyperscalers topping $800 billion this year and $1.1 trillion next year. At 3.3% of gross domestic product, next year’s figure would exceed projected spending on national defense. https://t.co/s1TohsgmPg https://t.co/QgDuMEeMPV
All 11 Sectors Poised for YoY Earnings Growth
"This is one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years...All 11 top-level sectors are expected to show YoY earnings growth for the first time in 4 years:" Deutsche Bank research https://t.co/46b3tizXQO https://t.co/wjeNquRQNZ
10‑Year Inflation Expectation Peaks at 2.5%
Inflation expectations over the next 10 years have risen to the highest level since 2023, to 2.5%, according to breakeven rates. https://t.co/x2ujJFz6iY
US Stocks Beat Gold as Inflation Hedge
“The best hedge against inflation has historically been US equities:” GS’s Mossavar-Rahmani. Gold isn’t a good hedge for inflation or deflation “so the idea that gold is something you need to have in your portfolio is something we totally disagree...
Japanese 10‑Year Yield Hits 2.52%, Echoing Global Rise
Japanese 10-year yields hit a new post-1997 high of 2.52%. Longer-term yields are rising globally in tandem with surging oil prices, especially as companies and governments demonstrate a will to keep spending. https://t.co/cL61POetPv
US Outperforms, Europe Underperforms: Surprise Gap Widens
US economic data keeps surprising to the upside, while European data keeps surprising to the downside. That gap just keeps growing, according to Bloomberg economic surprise indexes. https://t.co/aOsuCmkgUh
Tech S&P Surges 20% in April, Nvidia Adds $1.25T
Tech stocks in the S&P are up almost 20% so far in April, poised for the best monthly performance since 2002. Nvidia's market cap has risen by $1.25 trillion in the past four weeks, reaching $5.26 trillion. https://t.co/sCOSqOQYgT
Goldman, Citi Lift Oil Price Forecasts to $90‑$110
Goldman and Citi strategists are boosting their oil forecasts again. GS now sees brent averaging $90 a barrel in Q4. Citi's Layton just raised his base case average price forecasts to $110/95/80/bbl for 2Q/3Q/4Q 2026, respectively, from $95/80/75/bbl. https://t.co/hI2hYmRVx1