Tech S&P Surges 20% in April, Nvidia Adds $1.25T
Tech stocks in the S&P are up almost 20% so far in April, poised for the best monthly performance since 2002. Nvidia's market cap has risen by $1.25 trillion in the past four weeks, reaching $5.26 trillion. https://t.co/sCOSqOQYgT
Goldman, Citi Lift Oil Price Forecasts to $90‑$110
Goldman and Citi strategists are boosting their oil forecasts again. GS now sees brent averaging $90 a barrel in Q4. Citi's Layton just raised his base case average price forecasts to $110/95/80/bbl for 2Q/3Q/4Q 2026, respectively, from $95/80/75/bbl. https://t.co/hI2hYmRVx1
AI‑savvy Firms Drive M&A Surge Amid Volume Slump
M&A is surging this yr, but it’s very specific activity. From RBC’s Vito Sperduto: "The U.S. market is up 43% YTD, but deal volume is down 30%. This isn't just a rebound; it's a consolidation of power by those who...
Oil Inventories Near Record Lows Despite Potential Hormuz Reopening
The world’s oil buffers are rapidly being depleted, with crude inventories poised to reach the lowest levels on record even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in full by the end of this month: GS’s Daan Struyven & team https://t.co/Z3i0GtxRlv
Banks Fill Private Credit Gap as Loans Surge 7.4%
Commercial and industrial loans made by banks are up 7.4% year-over-year, the biggest jump in three years: @PantheonMacro While this can indicate a pickup in capex spending, this time it shows how banks are taking the place of private credit...
US Travel Remains Strong; International Airlines Pose Biggest Threat
Two takeaways from this interview w/United’s Kirby: 1) the US economy is surprisingly strong & higher prices aren’t deterring travelers; 2) he views the big competition as international airlines, not domestic ones when considering potential acquisitions https://t.co/TbARpnEJzJ
HSBC Warns: Market Dips Are Quick‑play Opportunities
HSBC's Kettner: "'This doesn't make sense' and 'Risk assets are detached from reality.' This is how a lot of our meetings start right now...But these are exactly the sorts of dips one will have to use very quickly in the...
Tech Split: Chips Surge While Software Stalls
There’s unprecedented divergence between the haves and the have nots in tech: semiconductors are booming, software is lagging.
CEOs Doubt AI ROI While Study Warns Job Threats
There's a dissonance between big CEOs, who aren't willing or able to predict any kind of ROI from using AI, and papers like this one. This OpenAI paper says that 18% of jobs are at high automation risk, & 24%...
Corporate Profits Outpace Growth, Workers' Share Plummets
"US corporate profits have been growing faster than the domestic economy since the year 2000. The relationship between the two sits at/near record highs:" @DataTrekMB Meanwhile, "American workers’ share of economic activity has been declining rapidly over the same timeframe"...
Powell's Exit Odds Slip, Warsh's Confirmation Odds Hit Record Low
The odds of Fed Chair Jay Powell leaving the Fed's board by May 30 have fallen to 31%, according to Polymarket. The chances of Kevin Warsh getting confirmed to be the next Fed chair by May 15 have fallen to...
Imported Inflation via Energy and Food Remains Top Risk
“The biggest risk continues to be that inflation gets imported around the world,” first through energy, then to food & beyond: MS’s Ted Pick. Otherwise, markets will stay strong with even a “narrowing of the cone of uncertainty” around the...
UK 10‑Year Bond Draws Record Demand, Yields Spike
The good news for the UK: the country had record amounts of investor demand for a 10-year bond offering. The bad news: they had to offer a high premium, selling the debt at the highest yield since 2008 at 4.9%....
HSBC's Kettner Stays Bullish Despite Modest News
HSBC's Max Kettner is still bullish: "We don't need a full return to normality in order to fade the moves of the last 6 weeks. Given our positioning framework is still sending the most bullish signal for risk assets since...
Trust in Valuations, Not Liquidity, Drives Private Credit Pressure
The issue for private credit is not just liquidity but a lack of trust in how fund managers value loans. "Redemption gating isn't likely to stop the pressure on private credit until private credit managers take more meaningful & more...