AI Disruption Could Trigger $420 Bn Credit Default Wave
UBS’s Matt Mish lays out a scenario for credit involving “rapid, aggressive AI disruption.” US high yield, leveraged loan & private credit default rates could rise to 3–6%, 8–10%, & 14–15%, respectively: Mish. “Defaults could approach ~$420bn, w/losses of roughly ~$300bn”
Software Stocks Down a Third Since October
Software stocks have lost a third of their value since the end of October. https://t.co/gSO2zdCAMQ
Market Stays Strong Against Real News, Crumbles Over Fiction
“I have seen this market exhibit incredible resilience in the face of actual negative news. Now a literal work of fiction sends it into a tailspin.” https://t.co/pem9OMzVZ2
Retail Private Credit Set to Reach Trillions, Threaten Industry
The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years, and is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets in that next few years. This points to why this could challenge the broader industry:...
New Projections Quiet Bond Vigilantes, Ease Debt Fears
New US deficit and growth projections ""suggest a quiet period ahead for bond vigilantes and others who hand-wring over the unsustainable nature of the US debt and the inevitable market revolt – the Godot for which they have waited impatiently...
Global Bonds Yield Under 5%, Delivering ~2% Real Return
Almost 90% of global public bonds trade at a yield lower than 5%: Apollo's Torsten Slok. "With inflation at close to 3%, this means that investors in public fixed income only get a 2% real return each year." https://t.co/oCUWfCIGpn
Investors Urge CEOs to Curb Spending Amid Bullish Optimism
Wall Street is full of worried bulls. On one hand, investors are telling CEOs they're overinvesting. On the other, investors are feeling the best about the overall backdrop since June 2021, with "no landing" expectations at a record high: February...
Global Fund Flows Outpace US, Shifting Investment Balance
US exceptionalism is turning into global rebalancing: BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn $104 billion this year vs the $25 billion that’s flowed into US funds: BofA citing EPFR Global. https://t.co/ah9arXM6u9...
Asian Stocks Outpace US, Shifting Money Abroad
Perhaps the trade this year isn't so much "sell America," but rather something like: "spend a lot more money everywhere else" - at least so far this year. For example, Asian stocks have made their best start over US equities...
Holiday Sales Slump and Rising Delinquencies Hit Young, Low‑Income Americans
The one-two punch today of highly disappointing holiday retail sales and the highest consumer delinquencies since 2017 paints a bleak picture for lower-income and younger Americans. https://t.co/Bd2eX18BAU https://t.co/H1biY6UCIL
Nvidia’s Value Outpaces IBM with Far Fewer Employees
In 1985, IBM was America’s most valuable company & employed nearly 400,000. Today, Nvidia is nearly 20 times as valuable and five times as profitable as IBM was yet it employs roughly a 10th as many people. https://t.co/indMwMz0TO @greg_ip https://t.co/HDl995cUhw
Recent Trade Unwind Unlikely to Spark Broad Selloff, Say HSBC
HSBC's Kettner: "Last week's rotation and unwinding of popular trades is unlikely to trigger a broad selloff – we stay constructive" DB's Reid on how this feels like 2000, when "an enormous rotation after the tech bubble burst" was enough to...