Nintendo Stays Silent Despite White House Tweet Storm
I can’t believe Nintendo’s seen all those White House tweets and hasn’t said “Wii object” yet
Meta Postpones AI Model Launch Due to Poor Performance
Meta reportedly delays the launch of its new AI model because...it’s just not that good https://t.co/I2lcsWkMrw https://t.co/xQfoTa6asz
Prediction Markets See WTI Futures Still Rising
Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb
Oil Prices Jumping Without Reason, Not Just Volatility
All of the “oil trading like a meme stock/shitcoin” tweets are not landing with me since the entire point is not that those are volatile, it’s that they move
Analysts Underestimate Oil Shock's Real Market Impact
>70% of RBC’s non-energy analysts saw limited impacts on stocks they cover from the spike in oil prices and geopolitical crisis. Here’s why that’s missing the forest for the trees — or rather, missing the tankers for the empty strait. https://t.co/rQNco6tBZB...
Oil Surge Lifts Inflation Swaps, Not Signaling Recession
1Y zero coupon inflation swaps have jumped (obvi) as oil prices surged Much more surprising to me is that 1Y1Y inflation swaps have risen That is, this isn’t a “price spike = recession” move All this while the super-backwardation in crude doesn’t...
Brent Surge Drives Spike in VIX Correlation
BIG OIL MOVES = FUEL FOR HIGHER CORRELATIONS Front-month Brent up ~55% over the past month. VIX contingent on Brent front-month futures +/- 50% in 1M: Median: 33.9 Average: 44.4 Max: 76.5 Min: 27.6 Current: 32.2
Duration Fails to Sustain Any Meaningful Bids
Most telling thing about this episode so far is complete inability of duration to hold anything resembling a bid.
Oracle's CDS Gains Vanish After Equity Funding Shift
Pretty remarkable that the “we’re raising half the money via equity” improvement in Oracle’s 5Y CDS completely reversed (and then some) so quickly https://t.co/E8Qzqv4pMx
Fed's “Open Market” Is Actually Managed, Not Open
why is it called the federal open market committee when said market is very clearly managed and a closed system
Minor Rate Shift Not Truly Hawkish
in what world could revising up your dot which is ~100bps below OIS to ~50bps below OIS be considered “turning hawkish”?
Lennar’s 13F Reveals 18.5M Opendoor
A note re: $OPEN and $Lennar --- if you back it out, Lennar held 18.5M shares of Opendoor at end of its Q3. The 13F likely indicates either they had some anti-dilution protections or participated in debt-for-equity swap, and that’s why...
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.