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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
>70% of RBC’s non-energy analysts saw limited impacts on stocks they cover from the spike in oil prices and geopolitical crisis. Here’s why that’s missing the forest for the trees — or rather, missing the tankers for the empty strait. https://t.co/rQNco6tBZB https://t.co/8KGS5OdFOV
1Y zero coupon inflation swaps have jumped (obvi) as oil prices surged Much more surprising to me is that 1Y1Y inflation swaps have risen That is, this isn’t a “price spike = recession” move All this while the super-backwardation in crude doesn’t...
BIG OIL MOVES = FUEL FOR HIGHER CORRELATIONS Front-month Brent up ~55% over the past month. VIX contingent on Brent front-month futures +/- 50% in 1M: Median: 33.9 Average: 44.4 Max: 76.5 Min: 27.6 Current: 32.2
Most telling thing about this episode so far is complete inability of duration to hold anything resembling a bid.
Pretty remarkable that the “we’re raising half the money via equity” improvement in Oracle’s 5Y CDS completely reversed (and then some) so quickly https://t.co/E8Qzqv4pMx
why is it called the federal open market committee when said market is very clearly managed and a closed system
in what world could revising up your dot which is ~100bps below OIS to ~50bps below OIS be considered “turning hawkish”?
A note re: $OPEN and $Lennar --- if you back it out, Lennar held 18.5M shares of Opendoor at end of its Q3. The 13F likely indicates either they had some anti-dilution protections or participated in debt-for-equity swap, and that’s why...
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
