Free Copilot Access Undermines Claim of Low Adoption
If the problem is allegedly “people don’t love Copilot,” can “everyone can access Copilot’s brains and I don’t have to pay as much for em” really be viewed as shooting oneself in the foot? $MSFT (what am i misdiagnosing here?)
Nvidia Call Volume Surpasses 4M, Highest Since November
Nvidia daily call volumes crack 4 million for the first time since November, and still a couple hours and change to go. https://t.co/WDY9ZrVRbd $NVDA https://t.co/P63hpn9lBB
Nvidia Shares Surge 3.7% Amid DeepSeek AI Concerns
Amazing back-to-back heds on the Terminal: Nvidia Stock Faces Headache From DeepSeek's New AI Model (Barron’s) *NVIDIA EXTENDS GAIN TO SESSION-HIGH 3.7% (BBG)
SOXX‑Beta Basket Correlation Peaks Since 2025 V‑Recovery
You can’t spell semiconductors without “V”* 21-session correlation between $SOXX and Goldman’s high beta momo long basket hasn’t been this strong since the April 2025 V-shaped recovery *well you can, but https://t.co/Y5jw7I7M1H
Chip Rally Lifts Qualcomm Stock Higher
The chip rally is so intense that even Qualcomm gets to go up $QCOM https://t.co/JHUQyG5MUs https://t.co/yQSvYsEvZ4
SMCI Nears Resolution of Nvidia Chip Smuggling Allegations
$SMCI is getting close to filling the “allegations of smuggling Nvidia AI chips into China” gap https://t.co/wRUyCxU5ij
AI Profits Come From Pricey Gear, Not Usage
The key in the AI boom is to be selling equipment that’s too expensive to use
SOX Sets New Record for Consecutive Gains Since 1995
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ties streak of consecutive gains from June 2014, surpasses May 1995 to set new record for consecutive record closes $SOX $SOXX https://t.co/lEof8iqT6S
Nostalgic Squirtle Evolution Meets Pokémon Periodic Table
This brings back fond memories as a child, when my Squirtle would reach level 16 and evolve into a Wartoolse.
Bitcoin Trails Speculative Rallies, Repeating Same Cycle
The case for bitcoin is that it’s lagging all the speculative stuff that was mooning last Sept/Oct and been starting to moon again. The case against bitcoin is that it’s lagging all the speculative stuff that was mooning last Sept/Oct and...
Avoiding Claude's Biggest Risk: The Paradox of Popularity
Dario very clearly seems to be trying to avoid the biggest risk to Claude uptake, which also happens to be one of the best Yogi-isms: “Nobody ever goes there anymore — it's too crowded" https://t.co/YSbeu1lYJP
First Day with Claude Could Spike Labor Productivity
Would not surprise me to see a companion piece to this in the near future to the effect of “What happens to labor productivity and the economy when it’s always someone’s first day using Claude” https://t.co/3mHD18wYZ3 bcc: @MattZeitlin https://t.co/uHQUAJLFtq
Obsessive
That kind of person who goes to the prime meridian to stand in the corrected spot https://t.co/qBvBpAj29Q
Heavyweights Near 52‑Week Highs After Long Consolidation
S&P 500 constituents within 5% of 52w highs that haven’t had one in 50 sessions. This is basically your bull case: quite a few heavyweights here that have spent a long time consolidating. https://t.co/MznH2PfRs7
Berkshire, Walmart Diverge Sharply Nov‑Feb, Biggest in 5 Years
Berkshire and Walmart have typically had a similar “shape” of relative performance vs the S&P 500. Nov-Feb was easily the biggest divorce in past 5 years. $BRK $WMT https://t.co/NP54QHbFzJ
Oracle Set for Strongest Week Since $455B RPO Announcement
Oracle poised for its best week since its $455 billion RPO announcement in September $ORCL https://t.co/DkWELLGfV6
Only Two Times Since 1990: Record Close, Few 52‑Week Highs
Just 2 sessions since 1990 with fewer S&P 500 constituents at 52w highs when the benchmark index closed at a record than yesterday: -Nov 13, 2020 -March 21, 2000 (h/t to @scottcharts for the inspo) https://t.co/52dt1frKOz
Meta-Backed CoreWeave Debt Cut Risk, Sparked Market Surge
CoreWeave's debt deal (backed by Meta's AI compute commitment) closed March 30 (SPX bottom). imho the flurry of subsequent announcements were probably linked to this. Amazing things happen when counterparty risk goes down...
AI Stocks Rally 10 Sessions, Near Historic Peak
The 10-session surge in AI stocks off the March 30 lows is a smidge off their best performance ever during this boom https://t.co/UBIyY0DJwL
UK Eateries Use Protein‑
UK slop bowl establishments have already figured out a proteinmaxxing hack that US ones really need to get wise to: edamamemaxxing
HSBC CEO: War‑era Oil Price Hit $286 per Barrel
HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery said he’s seen the all-in price of oil reach as high as $286, for a barrel received by Sri Lanka, during the war https://t.co/KccLLhDePj (in conversation with @DavidInglesTV) https://t.co/v3TnBx0bsB
S&P 500 Posts First Consecutive >3% Weekly Gains Since Oct 2022
First back-to-back weekly gains of >3% for the S&P 500 since the start of the bull market in October 2022 $SPY https://t.co/gEOHlfB0W1
AI Boosts Productivity, but Prompt‑injection Risks Threaten Organizations
Wonder if the AI calculus becomes “12% productivity gains per employee with the tail risk of the org going under for a week if Ralph is the victim of a convincing prompt injection and inadvertently sends out internal info to...
IGV and SMH Show Record Negative Correlation
Software $IGV and semis $SMH are the most negatively correlated ever (based on 63-day correlation of daily excess returns vs $SPY) https://t.co/x0Dfm9zreN
Nvidia's $6.3B CoreWeave Deal Looks Like Free Money
With the benefit of hindsight, is there a way to interpret the $6.3B Nvidia’s paying CoreWeave for unused AI compute capacity as anything other than a free $6.3B?
Amazon's AI Strategy Mirrors Its Core Consistency Blueprint
Amazon’s most consistent, fundamental corporate strategy, the one that’s made the e-commerce/cloud giant into the powerhouse it is today, is also its AI strategy: $AMZN https://t.co/RC1LAKEh4n https://t.co/e5Dn7VESOn
Collab Would Produce an Epic Track Longer than American Pie
These two artists ever collab on a track it’ll be so long it makes American Pie feel like Heartbreak Hotel
U2’s Preloaded iPod Album Was Surprisingly Great
Perhaps my hottest take is that the U2 album that came pre-loaded on the iPod ages ago was actually...pretty darn good.
Tariffs Mostly Shifted to Foreign Exporters, Not Consumers
Fun paper from Fed/Georgetown economists: A chunk of what was thought to be price increases driven by 2018-19 tariffs is attributable to smaller purchase orders due to tariffs. Their conclusion: tariffs were primarily borne by foreign exporters. https://t.co/wxoheNJ8PO
Retail Traders Dump Speculative Assets After October Peaks
IT’S SO OVER -Retail traders have been piling into $SQQQ (3x short Nasdaq 100) and $SGOV (cash) over the past two days -Call volumes traded peaked in October -Pretty much every speculative asset of note peaked in October https://t.co/ruhoAuTrha https://t.co/OAqKObkeTF
Call Volume Spikes Align with QQQ, NVDA, Quantum Rally
Seems noteworthy that median daily call volumes traded across US exchanges peaked in October along with: $QQQ, $NVDA, Quantum computing stocks ($QBTS, $IONQ, $RGTI), $PLTR (a couple days into November, but still), and Goldman Sachs’ “retail favorites” index. https://t.co/oPZuFod0Gx
Beyond Meat Shares Plunge; CEO Blames U.S. Culture
Beyond Meat tumbles as CEO blames American society for its business struggles after issuing weak sales outlook https://t.co/YX9hzenK9z $BYND https://t.co/btUu0uOuGM
Nvidia Backs Openness with $2B Marvell Investment
At GTC, Jensen Huang stressed that Nvidia was vertically integrated and also horizontally open. He’s putting his money where his mouth is on the latter with a $2 billion investment in custom chip and networking company Marvell. $NVDA $MRVL...
Domi's Dominance over Gudas Epitom
Domi beating up Gudas the sorry highlight of this sorry season, please give me something better than this
Goldman Sachs Momentum Basket Slides over 7%, Near Yearly Low
MORE LIKE NOMENTUM Goldman Sachs’ high beta momentum long basket down >7% today, poised for its 4th worst session in the past year https://t.co/s1Xac2PsMI
War and AI Doubts Split S&P Price From Earnings
S&P 500 12M forward earnings estimates 8% S&P 500 8% War and AI doubts have fueled an unprecedented divergence between stock prices and earnings estimates https://t.co/op1buWsF30 https://t.co/F9QcLD2WC2
Worst Friday and Week Since War Began
Fridays are the worst days since the war started, and this was the worst Friday and the worst week we’ve had since the war started. https://t.co/xxN8D9c8eX $SPY $QQQ $IWM https://t.co/dVGG3Sq1sk
Nasdaq 100 Faces First Consecutive 2% Drops Since Liberation Day
Poised for the first back-to-back 2% losses in the Nasdaq 100 since the two sessions following Liberation Day $QQQ
Thursday‑Friday S&P 500 Slumps Highlight Weekend Risk
WAR MEANS WEEKEND RISK Thursdays and Fridays have been very bad for the S&P 500 this March https://t.co/p5kmLv9XmT
Micron Mirrors Nvidia's 2023 Surge in Revenue Growth
Micron has been trading like Nvidia circa 2023 because it’s growing top line like Nvidia circa 2023 $MU $NVDA https://t.co/QfTDEfwA3p https://t.co/D5Z0rxoIyB
Oil Firms Will Weigh Prices Before Ramping Output
Oil companies going to make reasoned judgements about prices before boosting production a ton
Mid‑year Core Inflation Dip Could Push Rate Cuts to September
So mid-year is when we should start to see progress on core inflation. Probably resets “good news” cut clock to like September.
OKLO's P/S Ratio Remains Steady Amid Market Swings
For all the talk about markets ignoring potent catalysts and being untethered from fundamentals, I’ll note that OKLO’s price-to-sales ratio has been unchanged through its ups and downs.
Nvidia's Dominance Seems Unbeatable, yet Valuation Appears Absurd
.@Srasgon on $NVDA: “frankly we increasingly wonder how anyone else can compete with this.” “the order book suggests further upside to numbers, with the stock (in our opinion) almost absurdly valued given their positioning.” https://t.co/qVFTS3D69T
Two‑tier System Reshapes Oil Transport Through Hazardous Seas
THE ROAD LESS TRAVELED, OR THE WATERS MORE MINED The emerging two-tier system for moving oil through dangerous waters https://t.co/tMC9TJnD8s https://t.co/toqDQepMPK
Iran's VIP Checkpoint Makes Hormuz Transit Politically Controlled
So Iran has basically set up VIP access (or a separate customs checkpoint, if you prefer) for friendly vessels, per JPM “In practice, this creates a system in which the Strait is not formally closed, yet transit increasingly depends on political...
GTC Shifts Focus From GPUs to Broader AI
GTC stands for “GPU Technology Conference” Yet today, the unofficial title of Jensen Huang’s speech might as well be “Beyond GPUs” https://t.co/RKZuN87GrL $NVDA https://t.co/q2Kpsvlltm
Oil Trading Treated as Abstract Futures, Not Physical Settlement
Peeps seem to be trading oil like an abstract future and not something that physically settles
Companies Blame AI for Layoffs Despite Minimal Role
A bad AIxcuse is better than none? “59% say they emphasize AI’s role in layoffs bc it ‘is viewed more favorably by stakeholders than saying layoffs or hiring freezes are driven by financial constraints.’ Only 9% said AI had fully replaced...
Brent's Third-Month Futures Outperform Front-Month, Signaling Supply Risks
This is the week that oil markets started to wake up to not-so-short-term supply risks. Unprecedented outperformance of Brent third-month vs front-month in an up market (since at least 1989) https://t.co/moJqCod6kL https://t.co/0wKCN8bKco