Protection Costs at Historic Lows; Sustainability Remains Uncertain
The cost of protection is near the cheapest levels in history. *Is it sustainable? / What happens next? https://t.co/VvU44Ihozn
Volatility Peaks at Turns, Then Fades as Trends Settle
NEW POST “Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.” A massive new opportunity could be developing. And dispersion may get even more extreme. https://t.co/lzEI5foMCu
Dealer Gamma Surge Mirrors 2021 Upside Momentum
Fascinating data from GS: “On March 27, dealer gamma positioning hit -$7.24bn – the 2nd most negative GEX print on record. Six weeks later, dealer gamma closed Friday at +$21.3bn, now the 8th highest positive GEX reading ever recorded. To put...
S&P Call Skew Hits 99th Percentile, Nets Forced Upside
Interesting stats from GS: - S&P call skew is the most extreme since “Liberation Day” last year — in the 99th percentile on a two-year lookback - Brian Garrett wrote: “Those who refused to increase nets at any point in the last...
Majority of Gold/Silver Miners Jump 10% on AI Hype
Ten of our fifteen Gold/Silver Miners are up 10%+ today, like they pivoted to AI
Brent Peaks, Then Drops $30 Within a Week
Brent topped on the exact day of this cover, and is down $30 in less than a week. https://t.co/3lAlU2QZRA
Critical Week Ahead: Compelling Signals Emerging Now
NEW POST A critical week ahead. Some extremely compelling signals building. *If you’re new to our work, take a look… it will be worth your time. https://t.co/xwqjpBxIll
No Training Prepares You for the Market’s Final Third
“There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.” — Paul Tudor Jones
25% All‑
BofA on Asset Allocation: - The “sleep like a baby” portfolio (25% Stocks/Bonds/Commodities/Cash) is having the best year since *1933*. - Up 26% YTD, its third-best outperformance versus 60/40 (Stocks/Bonds) in a *century*. - Commodities have shined, despite remaining a significant underweight in...
Goldman Predicts $70B CTA Buying, Foreshadows Market Rally
Stunning chart and comments from GS: - CTAs bought more than $86Bn in global equities over the past five sessions — one of the biggest buying sprees on record. - *My notes*: remember GS’ trading desk *projected* this would happen, one week...
Second‑Fastest Post‑WWII Rally Hits Overbought in 11 Days
Wild stat from BBG: - “One of the most powerful rallies since World War II” - Stocks took just 11 days to spike from oversold to overbought. - This was the second fastest rally in history, only surpassed by August 1982. https://t.co/PZmYgZTnSg
Prioritize Data, Plan for Every Scenario
The Bottom? - What to look for / focus on the data. - Have a process and plan for all conditions... 🔗Post in profile Good luck to all this week. https://t.co/Ie0gTW3rlG
CTAs Near Max Short, Set to Become Buyers
CTAs Near Max Short From GS via BBG: - CTA sold $190B this month and are now short $50B of global equities - Cullen Morgan: “The systematic community is running out of steam” “Asymmetry lives to the upside — over the next month,...
Hedge Funds Capitulate: Record US Selloff and Europe Shorts Surge
Hedge Fund Selling Shows Signs of Capitulation From GS via BBG: - “Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge” - Funds cut global equities for a 6th straight week - Europe macro product shorts are at a 10-year high - CHART: US selling hit...
Tech Records Historic Weekly Inflow as Others Dump
Record Tech Flows From BofA via BBG: - Tech had the biggest weekly inflow in client data history (2008) - Energy, Discretionary, Financials, Staples, Utilities, and Materials all had record or near-record outflows