No Training Prepares You for the Market’s Final Third
“There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.” — Paul Tudor Jones
25% All‑
BofA on Asset Allocation: - The “sleep like a baby” portfolio (25% Stocks/Bonds/Commodities/Cash) is having the best year since *1933*. - Up 26% YTD, its third-best outperformance versus 60/40 (Stocks/Bonds) in a *century*. - Commodities have shined, despite remaining a significant underweight in...
Goldman Predicts $70B CTA Buying, Foreshadows Market Rally
Stunning chart and comments from GS: - CTAs bought more than $86Bn in global equities over the past five sessions — one of the biggest buying sprees on record. - *My notes*: remember GS’ trading desk *projected* this would happen, one week...
Second‑Fastest Post‑WWII Rally Hits Overbought in 11 Days
Wild stat from BBG: - “One of the most powerful rallies since World War II” - Stocks took just 11 days to spike from oversold to overbought. - This was the second fastest rally in history, only surpassed by August 1982. https://t.co/PZmYgZTnSg
Prioritize Data, Plan for Every Scenario
The Bottom? - What to look for / focus on the data. - Have a process and plan for all conditions... 🔗Post in profile Good luck to all this week. https://t.co/Ie0gTW3rlG
CTAs Near Max Short, Set to Become Buyers
CTAs Near Max Short From GS via BBG: - CTA sold $190B this month and are now short $50B of global equities - Cullen Morgan: “The systematic community is running out of steam” “Asymmetry lives to the upside — over the next month,...
Hedge Funds Capitulate: Record US Selloff and Europe Shorts Surge
Hedge Fund Selling Shows Signs of Capitulation From GS via BBG: - “Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge” - Funds cut global equities for a 6th straight week - Europe macro product shorts are at a 10-year high - CHART: US selling hit...
Tech Records Historic Weekly Inflow as Others Dump
Record Tech Flows From BofA via BBG: - Tech had the biggest weekly inflow in client data history (2008) - Energy, Discretionary, Financials, Staples, Utilities, and Materials all had record or near-record outflows
Pension Funds Snap Up $14B Equities, Top Percentile
GS on Flows via BBG: - Pension funds to buy $14 billion in equities for month/quarter-end rebalancing. - Ranks 75th percentile over the past three years in absolute dollar terms, and 97th percentile on a net basis. https://t.co/PkjmgbNxLG
ETFs Dominate Trading, Fueling Shorting and Volatility
Citadel on Flows: - ETFs have accounted for ~35% of trading volume over the past three weeks, peaking at 47%, and setting a record streak above 35%. - This reflects active shorting via ETFs to reduce net exposure. - Levered end-of-day flows remain...
Sell Imbalance Hits 2022 Levels, Hedging Costs Soar
From GS on Flows (BBG): - Biggest sell imbalance since 2022 (Friday) - Stresses no longer “ignored” - “can start talking at what innings we’re in because the game has finally started” - Hedging is so expensive that to break even, would need indexes...
Long‑Only Investors Dump $9.6B in Record Five‑Sigma Selloff
From GS on Flows: - Long-only investors sold $9.6B across GS’ trading floor on Thursday, the biggest wave of selling in the firm’s data history (2022). - Thursday broke the prior record from July 2025, and marked a rare five-sigma event. https://t.co/sasYSAIUL0
Massive CTA and Systematic Sell‑offs Set to Pressure Stocks
From GS on Flows: - CTAs Sold $80B over the last month - “Length has gone from >8 out of 10 to ~6.5 now, projected to go near 4.5-5 all else equal” - Systematics are estimated to sell $70B in the next *week*...
Retail Investors Hit Pause, Showing Persistent Fatigue
JPM on Flows: Retail investors showing signs of ‘persistent’ fatigue - Investors have “pressed pause” on buying, with weekly purchases dropping 30%, and ETF inflows dropping 22%. - “For the first time this year, retail investors are showing persistent signs of weakness”
Protection Costs Near Historic Peaks, Raising Sustainability Concerns
The cost of protection is near the most expensive levels in history. *Is it sustainable? / What happens next? https://t.co/c2ruCJC9SP