Pension Funds Snap Up $14B Equities, Top Percentile
GS on Flows via BBG: - Pension funds to buy $14 billion in equities for month/quarter-end rebalancing. - Ranks 75th percentile over the past three years in absolute dollar terms, and 97th percentile on a net basis. https://t.co/PkjmgbNxLG
ETFs Dominate Trading, Fueling Shorting and Volatility
Citadel on Flows: - ETFs have accounted for ~35% of trading volume over the past three weeks, peaking at 47%, and setting a record streak above 35%. - This reflects active shorting via ETFs to reduce net exposure. - Levered end-of-day flows remain...
Sell Imbalance Hits 2022 Levels, Hedging Costs Soar
From GS on Flows (BBG): - Biggest sell imbalance since 2022 (Friday) - Stresses no longer “ignored” - “can start talking at what innings we’re in because the game has finally started” - Hedging is so expensive that to break even, would need indexes...
Long‑Only Investors Dump $9.6B in Record Five‑Sigma Selloff
From GS on Flows: - Long-only investors sold $9.6B across GS’ trading floor on Thursday, the biggest wave of selling in the firm’s data history (2022). - Thursday broke the prior record from July 2025, and marked a rare five-sigma event. https://t.co/sasYSAIUL0
Massive CTA and Systematic Sell‑offs Set to Pressure Stocks
From GS on Flows: - CTAs Sold $80B over the last month - “Length has gone from >8 out of 10 to ~6.5 now, projected to go near 4.5-5 all else equal” - Systematics are estimated to sell $70B in the next *week*...
Retail Investors Hit Pause, Showing Persistent Fatigue
JPM on Flows: Retail investors showing signs of ‘persistent’ fatigue - Investors have “pressed pause” on buying, with weekly purchases dropping 30%, and ETF inflows dropping 22%. - “For the first time this year, retail investors are showing persistent signs of weakness”
Protection Costs Near Historic Peaks, Raising Sustainability Concerns
The cost of protection is near the most expensive levels in history. *Is it sustainable? / What happens next? https://t.co/c2ruCJC9SP
Latest Market Outlook: Signals & Action Plan Across Assets
NEW POST: - Updated Market Conditions: covering OIL, STOCKS, VIX, CREDIT, and more. - Main Signals we’re Watching. - Updated Actional Plan. 🔗Link in profile. Good luck out there, -MC https://t.co/w5AQk5ZdCP
S&P and Dow Hit Record Tightest Yearly Range
“This is the tightest range for this point of the year in the history of the S&P (going back to 1928), and tighter than any Dow range going back to 1896.” *Which way will it break? https://t.co/DQuNzpgPKG
Undervalued Sector Becomes Top Global Equity Hedge
The sector no one wanted… …is now the best pure global Equity hedge: *Diversification wins again? https://t.co/MveBoNSYU0
Record $50B ETF Put Wave Signals AI Fear
Record Put Trading on ETFs Seen as AI Victims From BBG: “Almost $50 billion in notional put trading so far this month, significantly outpacing other episodes over the past two decades.” “Themes such as senior loans, consumer exposure, financials and health care. The...
Most Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Shorting the Dollar
Almost all Hedge Fund types are exposed to Short Dollar. Some are massively Short. *Will they all be right? https://t.co/Uwzu1CzIdx
Dollar's Decline Signals Shift; Reconsider Your Investments
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”
Hedge Funds Slash US Equity Leverage, Yet Remain Highly Exposed
From GS Prime trading desk on Flows, via Bbrg: “Against a more challenging performance backdrop and tougher technicals, hedge funds have turned more defensive and net sold US equities MTD at the fastest pace since March 25,” the team led by...
Retail Investors Dump $8.3B, Near‑Historic Outflows
BofA Clients Sold Stocks at Near-Historic Levels via Bbrg: “Clients dumped US equities last week, with outflows reaching near-historic levels.” “Outflows were the *third highest* since records began in 2008.” [$8.3 Billion] *Who will be right: Retail/HFs or Institutions?
Retail Traders Set Record Demand on Citadel Platform
Citadel on flows, via Bbrg: Retail traders spent a record amount snapping up software shares on Citadel Securities’ platform, according to Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at the firm, which began tracking the data in 2017: “Net notional...
Equity Volatility Spike Defies Traditional Buying Signals
Good read on *market stress* from GS: “Our vol stress index closed the week registering 9 out of 10. Historically, readings of >9 have been buying opportunities, but this time ‘feels different’ as the increase in panic has not come with...
Critical Days Ahead: Watch Core Risk Signals
NEW POST: - RISKS. - Core signals to watch. - Volatility and Contagion. “The next few days will be absolutely critical to monitor…” 🔗Link in profile. https://t.co/qgBEZWrB8Z
Equal‑Weight S&P Outperforms Only Amid Major Market Shifts
Fascinating study from Bloomberg: S&P Equal Weight outperformance was extremely rare historically: 1999-2002 Dotcom 2009 Post GFC 2020-2021 Covid “Those cases accompanied major shifts in the market.” “Equal-weight S&P managed to maintain some outperformance 250 days later.” “The big question: whether this is the start of an...