CAPE Refunds Illegal Tariffs; 56k Importers Register
Monday, April 20, 8 am ET US program (CAPE) to refund the now-recognized as illegal tariffs will begin. Some 56k companies--importers of record--have reportedly registered. The largest importers (e.g., #WMT, #COST, #TGT, #AAPL,#AMZN, and #FDX) (1/4)
Markets May Correct After Record Rally Amid Optimism
Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?: Progress in US-Iran negotiations and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon fed investor optimism. The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, with multi-week rallies in tow. June WTI tumbled…...
US Rally and Dollar Slide Likely to Reverse Next Week
New weekly commentary: US stock rally looks overdone in the near-term and so does the dollar's sell-off. Both could correct next week. News from Middle East may not be as unambiguous as social media posts suggest....
Dollar Rebounds Amid Fed Concerns, Robust UK, China Growth
Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP: (A business trip will disrupt the daily commentary tomorrow and next week, but the weekly analysis will be posted here on April 18 and the May...
Dollar Set to End Seven-Day Slide
The Greenback is Poised to Snap Losing Streak: The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today. The Dollar Index is threatening to snap a seven-day decline. President Trump has held out the possibility that the “war is close to...
DXY Poised to End Losing Streak Amid War Escalation
DXY has not posted a higher close since April 2. It losing streak may end today. It is trading with a firmer bias and while POTUS holds out the possibility of the war ending soon, the press reports...
Huge FX Options Set to Expire Tomorrow Across Major Pairs
Interesting FX options that expire tomorrow 1.64 bln euros $1.18 2 bln euros at $1.1750 $1.5 bln at JPY158.85 A$2.1 bln $0.7125-30. https://t.co/SuL5KID8ce
Yuan Gains as USD Slides for Eight Straight Sessions
Beijing's campaign to accept a modest appreciation of the yuan continues. The fix was set at its lowest level in 3 yrs today. On weekly basis, it has risen 2x since last Sept. Today is the 8th consecutive session...
North American Optimism Lifts Equities, Dents USD
Optimism seen in North America yesterday was contagious. Equities and bonds higher today, and oil lower. Another round of negotiations during ceasefire? $USD extending yesterday's losses. PRC trade surplus half as large as expected. MAS tightens. See https://t.co/N1Rv2Tyaik...
US Dollar Gains as Optimism Overpowers Global Pessimism
Optimism Weighs on the Greenback: North American participants shrugged off the pessimism seen in Asia Pacific and Europe yesterday after the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend. The optimism was contagious and reports that another round of… https://t.co/xjkwmLy0gV https://t.co/5ocdwj561m
US‑Iran Talks Collapse; Blockade Threatens Trump‑Xi Summit
US-Iran negotiations failed over the weekend. The risk-off moves today though have mostly been mild. US blockade of Iranian ports could disrupt next month's Trump-Xi meeting. Bab-el-Mandeb Strait may also be brought into play. See https://t.co/13UStEpBOS https://t.co/1u6Xn5BKh9
Washington's Iran War Calculus Shifts, Boosting Ceasefire Optimism
The risk-reward of pursuing war on Iran appears to have shifted for Washington and that helps fan hopes that despite the initial difficulties the ceasefire could stick. Some promising noises from Ukraine and Russia talks. Hungary election tomorrow. See https://t.co/C24lO3Uz3T...
Ceasefire Hope Boosts Risk Appetite, Rallies Equities
Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal: Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell...
UN Law Bans Strait Tolls, yet US and Iran Ignore
The reason charging toll for using the Strait of Hormuz is illegal is the UN Law of the Seas. Yet, the US has not signed or ratified the treaty. Neither has Iran. The Strait was open before...
G10 Currency Consolidation Positive, Weekend Risks Loom
G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly…...