USD Climbs; ECB Hike Likely Finished Despite GDP Dip
Weekly Note: $USD surges after strong jobs growth, while low intensity war still being fought in ME. ECB hike seen as nearly done deal even after Q1 GDP contracts (not just Ireland, France also contract). Despite strong jobs data, Canada on hold. https://t.co/kf79aWU5NS https://t.co/gxdLpFWhvr
USD Holds Near Peaks Amid Low Oil, Yield Drops
$USD mostly chopping in familiar ranges, but it is still near highest level since BOJ end of April intervention and PBOC set the fix at a new 3-year low. Oil prices are lower are benchmark yields. Still the...
Petrodollar Collapse Is a Myth, Not Reality
New piece in Barron's with Adam Farhat, Univ of Sussex grad student..."The Myth of the Petrodollar Collapse". Complimentary, link to new Barron's piece: The Myth of the Petrodollar Collapse https://t.co/uyxlf1PzQz no paywall, just click down.
US Economy Bounces Back, Bolstering Dollar Strength
Week Ahead: US Economic Resilience Supports the Dollar: The resilience of the US economy is remarkable. The economy bounced back from near stagnation in Q4 25 (0.5% annualized pace) to 2% in Q1 26 and, and perhaps to 4.3% this...
USD Rallies, but Risk Appetite Wanes Before Holidays
USD comes back better bid with tensions still elevated in the Middle East. However, stocks and bonds are stronger. Yet, ahead of long holiday weekend in US and UK, the North American appetite for risk may be limited. See https://t.co/woF1nlm3cF...
US Rates Rise, Greenback Gains as Economy Re‑accelerates
Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback: The US economy appears to be re-accelerating here in Q2 after nearly grinding to a halt in Q1 (0.5% annualized pace). April US CPI and PPI were more elevated than expected. The anticipated...
Dollar Surges as Stocks, Bonds Slip After US‑China Summit
Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower: The US dollar has extended its gains against most currencies today. What is seen as a successful US-China summit and a swing in expectations for Fed policy are aiding the greenback. The anticipated…...
Dollar Poised to Break Higher Amid Stable Euro, Sterling
US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher: The US dollar is trading quietly against the major currencies. The euro is holding above $1.17 and sterling is holding above $1.35, but the market does not appear done probing these support areas. The...
Ceasefire Uncertainty Dampens Risk, Lifts Dollar, Fuels Oil
Ceasefire is on "Life Support": Saps Risk Appetites, Buoys the Greenback: The uncertainty about the US-Iran fragile ceasefire, which President Trump has said is on “life support” is weighing on risk-taking appetites today. Brent and WTI are up over $3…...
USD Strength Amid Fragile Ceasefire Drags Markets Lower
$USD is bid. Fragility of ceasefire weighs on sentiment. Drags equities and bonds lower. PBOC set $USD fix at new multiyear low. Bessent and Japanese officials talk fx but $JPY falls to new 5-day low. US CPI on...
Surplus Explores History of Overabundance, Ends Economic Primacy
My new book Surplus: The History of Too Much and the End of Economic Primacy is available for pre-order on Amazon. Out November 3, 2026 from Prometheus Books (@prometheusbks). Pre-order: https://t.co/gf5kOXaBO0 https://t.co/ht1ggvnw5K
US Rejects Iran Counter‑Proposal, Dollar Holds Firm
Monday Blues: US Negotiating Tactic or Ceasefire may End: News that the US rejected Iran’s counter-proposal is set the tone for today’s session. The dollar is mostly firmer, though the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone are slightly firmer. Equities are…...
US Rejects Iran's Counter‑Proposal: Tactic Or
Is the US rejection of Iran's counter-proposal a negotiating tactic or the end of the ceasefire? UK's Starmer continues to fight for his political life. PBOC sets new 3yr low $USD fix after higher CPI and PPI. See https://t.co/IrpUdZ5IuC...
Investors See Middle East Conflict De‑escalating Amid Ceasefire Violations
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI: There were several developments to note last week, but arguably the most important was that investors are optimistic that the Middle East war is winding down despite some violations of the ceasefire. June WTI...
CPI Data and Yen Moves Dominate Upcoming Week
Week ahead highlights: US and PRC CPI, Bessent talks $JPY in Japan, and G2 summit in Beijing. After ordering Fed to check exchange rates in Jan, Bessent quiet on recent BOJ intervention. Outcome of Xi-Trump likely minimal. See...