US Jobs Boosted as Dollar Slides Post‑Tariff Ruling
US Jobs on Tap after Court Ruled Against Section 122 Tariffs and Conflict in the Middle East: After recovering in the North American afternoon for the second consecutive session yesterday, the dollar has been sold again in Asia and Europe today. The… https://t.co/OpnaLm2GyM https://t.co/uO9MapVjnG
USD Softens Pre‑jobs Report as Markets Ignore Europe Woes
$USD has a softer profile today, ahead of the jobs report. The mkt appears to have largely shrugged off the sharp defeat of Labour in UK local elections and an unexpected decline in German industrial output. Tensions running high in...
RMB Gains Won’t Damp China’s Trade Advantage
The mild appreciation of the RMB is unlikely to have much impact on trade flows. China's price advantage is greater than CNY gains and demand for many other products (solar panels, rare earths, e.g.) may not be sensitive to fx....
Yuan Gains Accelerate, Offshore up 5% Last Year
The Yuan's Quiet Rise and Next Week's Summit: The offshore yuan appreciated nearly 5% against the dollar last year. The onshore yuan gained about 4.25%. This year has picked up were 2025 left off. Through yesterday, the offshore yuan has...
RMB Quietly Hits Three-Year High Amid Geopolitical Chatter
The RMB has quietly appreciated to its best level in 3 years. While Bessent says he will discuss the weak yen when he is in Tokyo next week, the exchange rate is unlikely to be featured in next week's Trump-Xi...
Investors Expect Iran War Shock to Fade Soon
Investors remain hopeful that the supply shock spurred by the war on Iran will end shortly. $USD is softer. It does look as if the BOJ intervened again yesterday but $JPY is flat today. Norway hiked. Mexico to cut...
Trump Suspends
TACO Delivered a Day after Cinco De Mayo: There is one overarching fundamental development today that is driving the risk-on in the capital markets and weighing on the dollar. President Trump announced the US was suspending its new escort service...
Risk Appetite Soars as US Halts Hormuz Escort, Dollar Falls
The US has suspended the escort service in the Strait of Hormuz and risk-appetites have jump. Equities and bonds have surged, while the greenback slumps. China re-opens and set USD fix at new multiyear low. See https://t.co/swSYFvpDgy https://t.co/UUCWRyRfJ8
US Halts Naval Escort Project Amid Pakistan
$USD softens POTUS pauses Project Freedom naval escort initiative--said to be at the request of Pakistan and "other countries". US blockade remains in place. June WTI comes off (~1.5%).
RBA Hikes, Signals Pause; JPY Weakest, Oil Drops
$USD is mostly a little softer as the North American session gets under way. $JPY is the weakest of the G10 currencies, off about 0.25%. Local mkts remain closed tomorrow. RBA hikes rates but signals a pause,...
Ceasefire Risk Drives Oil Surge, Boosts Dollar
US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher: The US dollar recovered in late turnover ahead of the weekend and has extended its recovery today in holiday-thin trading. Japan, China, and UK markets are closed. The ceasefire in the US-Iran...
Rising Geopolitical Tensions Push Oil, Dollar Higher
May 4 be with you. Middle East ceasefire at risk. Oil and $USD bid. Rate higher. US hiked tariff on EU vehicles and announced withdrawal of at least 5k troops from Germany. Taiwan's prez get to Eswatini despite...
Key Global Central Bank Moves and Election Watch Ahead
Week Ahead: RBA hikes, Banxico cuts. UK local elections. US April jobs data. Be prepared: https://t.co/Eo3ZubYqLB https://t.co/RS94rNYlVS
China's Auto Subsidies Outpace US Tariffs on EU Cars
Neither the wolf nor the shepherd are friends to the sheep. PRC subsidies and vertical integrated auto companies are conquering the world (outside the US and Canada). US just hiked tariffs on EU light vehicles to 25%, up from...
FOMC Dissent Procedural; Wait for June SEP to Revise Statement
In the weekly commentary that drops tomorrow, I suggest the 3 FOMC dissents over the statement was more procedural than substantive. When is the best time to change the statement--the majority was including to wait for the June iteration of...
Dollar Softens as Markets Await US Leadership
May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership: In holiday-thinned markets, the dollar is mostly softer as North American leadership is awaited. In light of yesterday’s surge in the yen, and contrary to our expectation, it does appear that Japanese officials…...
Derivatives Trim BoC Rate Outlook by 22bps, Hikes Discounted
5 G10 central banks met this week and they all delivered to varying extents hawkish holds. The derivatives market adjusted expectations for this year’s course by 22 bp for the Bank of Canada. Two hikes are now...
Japan Likely Intervened Heavily; Fed Remains Sole Cut Prospect
It is looking more likely that Japan did materially intervene yesterday and for a bit more than it did on average in 2024. Today's holiday has thinned activity. US leadership sought. Fed is still only major central bank where mkt...
China's Extraterritorial Rules Undermine Global Supply Chains
Bessent to China: I stressed that China's recent provocative extraterritorial regulations have a chilling effect on global supply chains. Mark Twain: Nothing needs reforming as other people's habits. The hypocrisy is on par with PRC's criticism of the "Made in...
Nikkei Confirms Material Market Intervention Occurred Today
The Nikkei is reporting that material intervention did take place today. It cites unidentified govt official.
Yen Rebounds After Fed’s Hawkish Hold Interpretation
The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention: The North American market understood yesterday’s Fed statement and the three dissents in favor of a neutral bias as a hawkish hold and rallied the dollar in response. Follow-through selling today has been minimal…...
Yen Rebounds on Intervention as US Eyes Iran Strike
Ahead of ECB and BOE outcome, the yen is in the spotlight. It has reversed higher after heightened verbal intervention by Japanese officials. Meanwhile, the US is reportedly considering new military strikes on Iran. Oil extends gains but...
Dissents Signal Neutral Bias, Not Powell Weakening
The 3 dissents over the easing bias is not a blow to Powell, like some are saying, but it is a signal to Warsh. The dissents wanted to adopt a more neutral bias. Miran's dissent for a rate cut...
Euro's Q1 Plunge and April Rebound Signal Policy Repricing
Euro and ECB: The euro' fell nearly 1.65% in Q1, only to claw back about 1.25% in April. At one level, that looks like noise within a broader range. At another, it reflects a market that has been repeatedly and...
Oil Rises Ahead of Powell’s Final Meeting, Middle East Tensions
Oil Prices Advance Ahead of What Will likely be Powell's Last FOMC Meeting (as Chair): There are two dominant issues today. First, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, but the blockade of Iran is an act of war, and...
Oil Hits Record, Yields Firm Ahead of Hawkish FOMC
Two issues dominate today. Oil prices have risen. July Brent is at a new record and June WTI is approaching the March high. Bond yields are firmer. Second, is the FOMC meeting, where a hawkish hold is expected. Warsh...
Rate‑Hike Dissent Fails, Dollar Rises, Oil Nears $100
Three Dissents in Favor of a Rate Hike Fail to Support the Yen: The markets seem nervous. The dollar is higher against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. June WTI, which was at $82.60 on April 17,...
USD Firm, Oil Climbs, Yields Rise, BOJ Holds
$USD is firmer across the board. Oil is higher for the 6th session in the past 7. 10-year yields are higher. BOJ left policy on hold with a 6-3 vote but Gov Ueda failed to confirm the...
Iranian Proposal Lifts Risk Appetite, but USD Caution Persists
Hopes that a new Iranian proposal provides a new off-ramp are lifting risk appetites and weighing on the $USD. Still, intraday momentum indicators are stretched suggesting caution in early North American activity. See https://t.co/6bn4nqt1G3 https://t.co/PXQbWWMffS
May 2026: Markets in Transition, No Central Bank Meetings
May 2026 Monthly: The global capital markets will enter May with a sense of transition rather than resolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, nor the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan meet in the month ahead. The market is...
US Shock 2.0: Iran War Drives Market Disruption
May Monthly drops. Much talk about China 2.0 shock, but the main disruptive force is not emanating from Beijing now. US shock 1.0 were the tariffs and US shock 2.0 is the war on Iran. May is...
CAPE Refunds Illegal Tariffs; 56k Importers Register
Monday, April 20, 8 am ET US program (CAPE) to refund the now-recognized as illegal tariffs will begin. Some 56k companies--importers of record--have reportedly registered. The largest importers (e.g., #WMT, #COST, #TGT, #AAPL,#AMZN, and #FDX) (1/4)
Markets May Correct After Record Rally Amid Optimism
Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?: Progress in US-Iran negotiations and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon fed investor optimism. The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, with multi-week rallies in tow. June WTI tumbled…...
US Rally and Dollar Slide Likely to Reverse Next Week
New weekly commentary: US stock rally looks overdone in the near-term and so does the dollar's sell-off. Both could correct next week. News from Middle East may not be as unambiguous as social media posts suggest....
Dollar Rebounds Amid Fed Concerns, Robust UK, China Growth
Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP: (A business trip will disrupt the daily commentary tomorrow and next week, but the weekly analysis will be posted here on April 18 and the May...
Dollar Set to End Seven-Day Slide
The Greenback is Poised to Snap Losing Streak: The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today. The Dollar Index is threatening to snap a seven-day decline. President Trump has held out the possibility that the “war is close to...
DXY Poised to End Losing Streak Amid War Escalation
DXY has not posted a higher close since April 2. It losing streak may end today. It is trading with a firmer bias and while POTUS holds out the possibility of the war ending soon, the press reports...
Huge FX Options Set to Expire Tomorrow Across Major Pairs
Interesting FX options that expire tomorrow 1.64 bln euros $1.18 2 bln euros at $1.1750 $1.5 bln at JPY158.85 A$2.1 bln $0.7125-30. https://t.co/SuL5KID8ce
Yuan Gains as USD Slides for Eight Straight Sessions
Beijing's campaign to accept a modest appreciation of the yuan continues. The fix was set at its lowest level in 3 yrs today. On weekly basis, it has risen 2x since last Sept. Today is the 8th consecutive session...
North American Optimism Lifts Equities, Dents USD
Optimism seen in North America yesterday was contagious. Equities and bonds higher today, and oil lower. Another round of negotiations during ceasefire? $USD extending yesterday's losses. PRC trade surplus half as large as expected. MAS tightens. See https://t.co/N1Rv2Tyaik...
US Dollar Gains as Optimism Overpowers Global Pessimism
Optimism Weighs on the Greenback: North American participants shrugged off the pessimism seen in Asia Pacific and Europe yesterday after the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend. The optimism was contagious and reports that another round of… https://t.co/xjkwmLy0gV https://t.co/5ocdwj561m
US‑Iran Talks Collapse; Blockade Threatens Trump‑Xi Summit
US-Iran negotiations failed over the weekend. The risk-off moves today though have mostly been mild. US blockade of Iranian ports could disrupt next month's Trump-Xi meeting. Bab-el-Mandeb Strait may also be brought into play. See https://t.co/13UStEpBOS https://t.co/1u6Xn5BKh9
Washington's Iran War Calculus Shifts, Boosting Ceasefire Optimism
The risk-reward of pursuing war on Iran appears to have shifted for Washington and that helps fan hopes that despite the initial difficulties the ceasefire could stick. Some promising noises from Ukraine and Russia talks. Hungary election tomorrow. See https://t.co/C24lO3Uz3T...
Ceasefire Hope Boosts Risk Appetite, Rallies Equities
Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal: Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell...
UN Law Bans Strait Tolls, yet US and Iran Ignore
The reason charging toll for using the Strait of Hormuz is illegal is the UN Law of the Seas. Yet, the US has not signed or ratified the treaty. Neither has Iran. The Strait was open before...
G10 Currency Consolidation Positive, Weekend Risks Loom
G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly…...
G10 FX Consolidates Amid US CPI, Canada Jobs, Geopolitical Tension
The G10 fx consolidation today looks constructive. Today's North American highlights including US March CPI and Canada's jobs data. Middle East ceasefire is frayed but intact ahead of the weekend negotiations. Hungary holds key election too. See https://t.co/ilDfPE14fW https://t.co/vM5PZMv4eI
Ceasefire's Rocky Start Dashes Initial Optimism
Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday's Enthusiasm: It seemed clear that yesterday’s euphoric reaction to the two-week ceasefire was exaggerated. Ceasefires often have been plagued with disputes and violations at the start. This one is no different.… https://t.co/Y2MeryYHcf https://t.co/2Lwkg8yq6W
Ceasefire Optimism Fades; Markets Wobble Amid Israel
Ceasefires often have a troubled start and this one is no different. It is complicated by Israel's action in Lebanon. Yesterday's exuberance was exaggerated and has been pared a little. Oil firmer, equities lower, yields higher. $USD in narrow...
Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite, Markets Rally, Oil Plummets
Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits: Risk appetites have been excited by the two-week cease fire in the Middle East. Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly. The precious metals are higher. May WTI is off more than 15%. June Brent is about...